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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: IND 27, KC 13 (Line: IND by 6.5)

Players Updated: Tony Moeaki. Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne

The 9-5 Colts cannot win their division but have a full game lead over all other teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road but the 2-12 Chiefs are 1-6 at home and won only once in the last 11 games. Imagine - the Colts with 10 wins after dumping nearly every offensive skill player last spring.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN 27-23
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU 17-29
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 250,2
RB Frank Gore 50 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-30
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It did not go well in Houston who finally got all the pieces to their defense back and held the Colts to their lowest score in eight weeks. But the schedule ends with this delightful matchup in Kansas City (assuming the Chiefs show up and do not forfeit) and then a home game against the Texans which may be a great situation. The Texans can secure the #1 seed with a win over the visiting Vikings this week and then can rest players in that season finale.

Andrew Luck has been less prolific in recent weeks and may end up passed for the Rookie of the Year by Robert Griffin III who has been hot at the end of the season when the voting will happen. Luck still manages to score in every game and threw for 391 yards and four scores as recently as week 13. He's been less productive for the last six week otherwise though.

Victor Ballard is getting a full workload now and wrapping up a starting gig next year. He ran for 94 yards on 19 carries against the Titans and then 105 yards on 18 runs in Houston. He'll face another weaker defense again this week but the one thing that Ballard has failed to offer is touchdowns. He has only one rushing score all year.

Donnie Avery has been far too inconsistent to merit any further fantasy consideration and Reggie Wayne has gone cold in these last three weeks after being a top wideout through week 12. He's only scored once in three games and been held to fewer than 65 yards. Last week in Houston was his worst game of the year with just three receptions for 14 yards.

Playing in Kansas City should heal whatever ails. Reggie Wayne and Victor Ballard make good starts this week and Luck should post at least moderate fantasy points with upside for more. The Chiefs have only scored seven points over the last two games so the Colts may well end up coasting in the second half and short cut what could have been.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 29 4 20 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 18 22 14 11 29 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND CLE 0000021011 ***
Even against Cleveland, a defense that has given up four QB TD passes in two games, Brissett has no conventional fantasy worth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND CLE 701000000 ***
Cleveland has given up 23.3 PPR points, on average, this fresh season. RBs have managed to score one TD apiece on the ground and via the air.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND CLE 005600000 ***
After facing the Steelers and Ravens, Cleveland has blanked all but Jeremy Maclin from the end zone. Hilton's disastrous 2017 should continue.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND CLE 002300000 ***
Moncrief is a gamble in all formats and is best left in reserve as Jacoby Brissett may struggle again. Cleveland has been strong vs. the pass so far.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND CLE 007801000 ***
The Browns are sitting as the second easiest defense to exploit in 2017. Tight ends have gone for 162 yards and two scores on 19 catches. Doyle should be fine this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND CLE 2222 ***
Cleveland has given up only one field goal on two kicks, and most of the damage has come via extra points -- something this version of the Colts may struggle to generate.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: This is the final home game before heading to Denver and ending this horrible season. The only thing that has been accomplished is that the Chiefs are due a great draft pick in April. Romeo Crennel's first year as coach has been a disaster. The only thing that has been accomplished on the offense is that Jamaal Charles has one less year to play.

Brady "not the answer" Quinn suffered a rib injury and will be evaluated this week. He has started four games so far and scored in only one of them and remained under 160 yards in all but one. Rather than use Matt Cassel, the Chiefs may turn to Ricky Stanzi as the starter.

The problem in the passing game, aside from there being no real passer, is that there are no more receivers. Dwayne Bowe hit the injured reserve last week and Steve Breaston is not even active for games anymore. They are down to starting Jonathan Baldwin who has no catches in the last two weeks and then Devon Wylie and Jamar Newsome who would struggle to make the practice squad anywhere else in the NFL.

Jamal Charles was on a five game stretch of over 100 total yards but then crashed to only ten yards on nine carries. In his first meeting with the Chiefs, he was held to just four yards on five runs. He's been prolific in most other games but when he faces the Raiders this year he's just crushed and ignored.

There is not a shred of fantasy value on this team outside of Jamaal Charles. When they review where the offense is in the offseason, they might as well literally cut all the skill players other than Charles. Fortunately the Colts have a below average rush defense which makes Charles relevant again but the Chiefs game will begin and end with whatever he does. There is not even any players on the roster worthy of a look-see for next season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 28 26 31
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 20 28 10 25 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @LAC 10000026010 ***
Smith was great in the opener last year and the Week 17 meeting against the Bolts. LA has allowed only three passing touchdowns but also a rushing score to become the seventh-worst defense of QBs in 2017.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC @LAC 8015500000 ***
The Bolts have struck down running backs in 2017, ceding only three catches for 11 yards and 240 scoreless yards on the ground, resulting in 14.1 fantasy points surrendered.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC @LAC 1006800000 ***
LA gave up 30 catches for 314 yards and three TDs in its first two games to wide receivers. The Chiefs utilized Hill one time for nine yards in last year's opener vs. the Bolts. In Week 17, he saw seven targets, which were good for a 5-46-0 line, and another three rushes for 15 yards. The Chargers could be without their top cover guy, Jason Verrett, in this meeting.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC @LAC 004400000 ***
Denver did a number on this secondary last week, and injuries are also at play. Conley doesn't see the requisite volume a gamer would need to desire chancing a starting spot on him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC @LAC 002300000 ***
Wilson belongs nowhere near a fantasy lineup, or roster, for that matter.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @LAC 006601000 ***
The Chargers have provided 10.2 PPR points per game to the position in two games, which stems from a line of 8-124-0. The Dolphins and Broncos don't have much in the way of a presence at the position.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @LAC 2233 ***
Three teams have allowed more attempted field goals than the Chargers, a team permitting 9.5 fantasy points, on average, in 2017.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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