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David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: IND 27, KC 13 (Line: IND by 6.5)

Players Updated: Tony Moeaki. Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne

The 9-5 Colts cannot win their division but have a full game lead over all other teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road but the 2-12 Chiefs are 1-6 at home and won only once in the last 11 games. Imagine - the Colts with 10 wins after dumping nearly every offensive skill player last spring.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN 27-23
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU 17-29
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 250,2
RB Vick Ballard 90,1 3-20
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60,1 4-20
RB Trent Richardson 40 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-30
WR Hakeem Nicks 5-70
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90,1
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
TE Coby Fleener 2-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It did not go well in Houston who finally got all the pieces to their defense back and held the Colts to their lowest score in eight weeks. But the schedule ends with this delightful matchup in Kansas City (assuming the Chiefs show up and do not forfeit) and then a home game against the Texans which may be a great situation. The Texans can secure the #1 seed with a win over the visiting Vikings this week and then can rest players in that season finale.

Andrew Luck has been less prolific in recent weeks and may end up passed for the Rookie of the Year by Robert Griffin III who has been hot at the end of the season when the voting will happen. Luck still manages to score in every game and threw for 391 yards and four scores as recently as week 13. He's been less productive for the last six week otherwise though.

Victor Ballard is getting a full workload now and wrapping up a starting gig next year. He ran for 94 yards on 19 carries against the Titans and then 105 yards on 18 runs in Houston. He'll face another weaker defense again this week but the one thing that Ballard has failed to offer is touchdowns. He has only one rushing score all year.

Donnie Avery has been far too inconsistent to merit any further fantasy consideration and Reggie Wayne has gone cold in these last three weeks after being a top wideout through week 12. He's only scored once in three games and been held to fewer than 65 yards. Last week in Houston was his worst game of the year with just three receptions for 14 yards.

Playing in Kansas City should heal whatever ails. Reggie Wayne and Victor Ballard make good starts this week and Luck should post at least moderate fantasy points with upside for more. The Chiefs have only scored seven points over the last two games so the Colts may well end up coasting in the second half and short cut what could have been.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 29 4 20 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 18 22 14 11 29 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND @NYG 20000031030 ****
Luck has six straight 300-yard games and multiple touchdowns in every game this season; you're going to trot him out against any defense, doesn't matter who. Though it doesn't hurt that the Giants have allowed multiple TDs in back-to-back games, does it?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND @NYG 4004401000 ***
Bradshaw gets the third-down work, a healthy share of the goal line work, and if Trent Richardson isn't fully healthy an increased share of all the other stuff as well. He's the more dynamic and more effective back in Indy's stable, so he's at least as good of a bet as Richardson to capitalize on a Giants' defense that's allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushers and at least one RB TD in six of seven games this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND @NYG 401000000 **
Richardson returns to action just in time to face a Giants defense that's allowed back-to-back 100-yard rushing efforts and at least one RB TD in six of seven games. Whether or not he returns to his lead role in the Indy backfield remains to be seen however, and even if he does Ahmad Bradshaw has been the more effective fantasy play anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND @NYG 004601000 **
It's a revenge game for Nicks, who dogged the Giants with a zero-TD swan song last season. Revenge would be more likely has Nicks not amassed a paltry 8-86 in the five games since he last saw the end zone. It's not a matter of targets, either; that 8-86 came on 26 targets. It would take a concerted effort by the Colts to rub Tom Coughlin's face in a Nicks TD for revenge to happen here, and Indy probably doesn't care that much about a free-agent-to-be WR3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND @NYG 0081100000 ****
Three straight 100-yard efforts, six straight with at least 80 yards... yeah, Hilton's handling the transition to WR1 just fine. No reason for his roll to slow against a Giants secondary that's already allowed four feature receivers to reach triple-digit yardage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND @NYG 003400000 ***
Moncrief has moved into the WR2 role in Indy, just in time to capitalize on a matchup with a Giants' secondary that's allowed fantasy helpers to multiple WRs in three of the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND @NYG 002201000 ****
Over the past two games the Giants have allowed 210 yards and four TDs to opposing tight ends. The Colts have a TE TD in every game this season, and even if Allen has to share some stats with Coby Fleener this is a favorable enough matchup that Allen--heck, maybe both Indy TEs--belongs in your fantasy lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND @NYG 2144 ***
Multiple PATs in every game, multiple FGs in every game since Week 1... Vinatieri is getting ample opportunity to swing the leg on an every-week basis.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 80 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 4-50,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40,1

Pregame Notes: This is the final home game before heading to Denver and ending this horrible season. The only thing that has been accomplished is that the Chiefs are due a great draft pick in April. Romeo Crennel's first year as coach has been a disaster. The only thing that has been accomplished on the offense is that Jamaal Charles has one less year to play.

Brady "not the answer" Quinn suffered a rib injury and will be evaluated this week. He has started four games so far and scored in only one of them and remained under 160 yards in all but one. Rather than use Matt Cassel, the Chiefs may turn to Ricky Stanzi as the starter.

The problem in the passing game, aside from there being no real passer, is that there are no more receivers. Dwayne Bowe hit the injured reserve last week and Steve Breaston is not even active for games anymore. They are down to starting Jonathan Baldwin who has no catches in the last two weeks and then Devon Wylie and Jamar Newsome who would struggle to make the practice squad anywhere else in the NFL.

Jamal Charles was on a five game stretch of over 100 total yards but then crashed to only ten yards on nine carries. In his first meeting with the Chiefs, he was held to just four yards on five runs. He's been prolific in most other games but when he faces the Raiders this year he's just crushed and ignored.

There is not a shred of fantasy value on this team outside of Jamaal Charles. When they review where the offense is in the offseason, they might as well literally cut all the skill players other than Charles. Fortunately the Colts have a below average rush defense which makes Charles relevant again but the Chiefs game will begin and end with whatever he does. There is not even any players on the roster worthy of a look-see for next season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 28 26 31
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 20 28 10 25 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC NYJ 0000024021 ****
It's been a month since Smith was fantasy-relevant, but a date with a Jets' team that's given up multiple TDs to every QB it has faced could turn the tables.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC NYJ 7004301000 ****
No doubting Charles, who has six TDs in the past four games and is averaging 104 combo yards per game during that span.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Knile Davis, KC NYJ 401000000 ****
The Jets haven't allowed multiple RBs to score in the same game all year, and the most yardage a second back has turned in is 32. Knowing that, there's no reason to trot out KC's RB2, at least for now.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC NYJ 006800000 ****
Bowe is what passes for a WR1 in KC, and it's a favorable matchup with a secondary that's allowed five 100-yard receivers already this year. That's about the bounds of our enthusiasm for any element of the Chiefs passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC NYJ 005501000 ***
Kelce continues to share looks with Anthony Fasano, but for the most part he comes out ahead. And that's enough to toss his hat into the fantasy ring against a Jets D that's allowed nine TE TDs in the past six games alone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC NYJ 1144 ***
Took the Brazilian a little while to settle in, but he's posted double-digit points in three of his last four and looks to be a solid fantasy option at home this week.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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