FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: IND 27, KC 13 (Line: IND by 6.5)

Players Updated: Tony Moeaki. Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne

The 9-5 Colts cannot win their division but have a full game lead over all other teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road but the 2-12 Chiefs are 1-6 at home and won only once in the last 11 games. Imagine - the Colts with 10 wins after dumping nearly every offensive skill player last spring.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN 27-23
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU 17-29
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 250,2
RB Vick Ballard 90,1 3-20
RB Ahmad Bradshaw 60,1 4-20
RB Trent Richardson 40 3-20
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-30
WR Hakeem Nicks 5-70
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90,1
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
TE Coby Fleener 2-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It did not go well in Houston who finally got all the pieces to their defense back and held the Colts to their lowest score in eight weeks. But the schedule ends with this delightful matchup in Kansas City (assuming the Chiefs show up and do not forfeit) and then a home game against the Texans which may be a great situation. The Texans can secure the #1 seed with a win over the visiting Vikings this week and then can rest players in that season finale.

Andrew Luck has been less prolific in recent weeks and may end up passed for the Rookie of the Year by Robert Griffin III who has been hot at the end of the season when the voting will happen. Luck still manages to score in every game and threw for 391 yards and four scores as recently as week 13. He's been less productive for the last six week otherwise though.

Victor Ballard is getting a full workload now and wrapping up a starting gig next year. He ran for 94 yards on 19 carries against the Titans and then 105 yards on 18 runs in Houston. He'll face another weaker defense again this week but the one thing that Ballard has failed to offer is touchdowns. He has only one rushing score all year.

Donnie Avery has been far too inconsistent to merit any further fantasy consideration and Reggie Wayne has gone cold in these last three weeks after being a top wideout through week 12. He's only scored once in three games and been held to fewer than 65 yards. Last week in Houston was his worst game of the year with just three receptions for 14 yards.

Playing in Kansas City should heal whatever ails. Reggie Wayne and Victor Ballard make good starts this week and Luck should post at least moderate fantasy points with upside for more. The Chiefs have only scored seven points over the last two games so the Colts may well end up coasting in the second half and short cut what could have been.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 29 4 20 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 18 22 14 11 29 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND PHI 20000033030 ***
Luck kept pace with Peyton to the tune of 370 and 2--plus a rushing score--in the season opener. A home date with a Philly D that let Chad Henne toss for 266 and 2 seems... well, unfair.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Trent Richardson, IND PHI 4004200000 ****
To the surprise of few, Indy had to play catch-up with the Broncos and as such Richardon's rushing attempts were limited, though to his credit he still mustered 51 combo yards on nine touches. He should see an uptick in opportunity this week, though we still haven't seen enough to credit him with being a consistent fantasy starter.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND PHI 3004300000 ***
Bradshaw capitalized on the game situation and his opportunity to produce 85 combo yards on eight touches. Odds are this game breaks a bit more in Indy's--and Trent Richardson's--favor, which puts a limit on Bradshaw's fantasy upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND PHI 0061001000 ****
Hilton has the deep speed to get behind the Eagles secondary a la Allen Hurns last week; if he sees anything close to the 11 targets he saw last week in Denver he's looking at a very big fantasy evening.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND PHI 006701000 ***
If a pair of rookies like Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee can confuse the Philly secondary to the tune of 172 yards and two TDs you have to like the prospects of a wily vet like Wayne carving out a useful fantasy outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Hakeem Nicks, IND PHI 003400000 ***
Nicks reintroduced himself to the end zone last week, which was nice. However, he remains the third wheel in Indy's passing game and as such will have to queue up behind TY Hilton and Reggie Wayne for opportunities to toast a shaky Eagles secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND PHI 005501000 ***
Allen turned fewer targets into more productivity thanks to a long catch-and-run for a touchdown. The whole sharing with Coby Fleener thing bites into his fantasy productivity, especially with the wideouts expected to take a larger share off the top against a shaky Philly secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Coby Fleener, IND PHI 003200000 ***
Fleener's spot in the Colts' passing game pecking order fluctuates between secondary and tertiary; certainly there's opportunity against the Eagles this week, but with so many mouths to feed he can't be banked on for fantasy help.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND PHI 2233 ****
My cousin Vinny just keeps on kicking, and with this tilt sporting the highest O/U total on the board even the Vegas sharps think he'll get ample opportunity to swing the leg.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 80 3-20
WR Donnie Avery 4-50,1
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40,1

Pregame Notes: This is the final home game before heading to Denver and ending this horrible season. The only thing that has been accomplished is that the Chiefs are due a great draft pick in April. Romeo Crennel's first year as coach has been a disaster. The only thing that has been accomplished on the offense is that Jamaal Charles has one less year to play.

Brady "not the answer" Quinn suffered a rib injury and will be evaluated this week. He has started four games so far and scored in only one of them and remained under 160 yards in all but one. Rather than use Matt Cassel, the Chiefs may turn to Ricky Stanzi as the starter.

The problem in the passing game, aside from there being no real passer, is that there are no more receivers. Dwayne Bowe hit the injured reserve last week and Steve Breaston is not even active for games anymore. They are down to starting Jonathan Baldwin who has no catches in the last two weeks and then Devon Wylie and Jamar Newsome who would struggle to make the practice squad anywhere else in the NFL.

Jamal Charles was on a five game stretch of over 100 total yards but then crashed to only ten yards on nine carries. In his first meeting with the Chiefs, he was held to just four yards on five runs. He's been prolific in most other games but when he faces the Raiders this year he's just crushed and ignored.

There is not a shred of fantasy value on this team outside of Jamaal Charles. When they review where the offense is in the offseason, they might as well literally cut all the skill players other than Charles. Fortunately the Colts have a below average rush defense which makes Charles relevant again but the Chiefs game will begin and end with whatever he does. There is not even any players on the roster worthy of a look-see for next season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 28 26 31
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 20 28 10 25 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @DEN 20000024022 ***
Smith had two of his better fantasy games playing catch-up to Peyton Manning last season. On the heels of a putrid performance against the Titans it would be tough to bank on him for a reprise; then again, garbage time stats count the same.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @DEN 6015300000 ***
With a paltry workload the likes of which he hadn't seen since Week 8 of 2012, Charles was a non-fantasy factor in Week 1. Expect Andy Reid to correct that error, with expectations set somewhere between the 72 and 120 yards from scrimmage he generated in last season's home-and-home. Hey, it's better than last week's crapola, that's for sure.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dwayne Bowe, KC @DEN 005500000 ***
After sitting out a one-game suspension Bowe is primed to make his 2014 debut. He posted similar stat lines against the Broncos last season, 4-57-1 and 3-56. There's no question he's the go-to guy in this passing game, but that didn't prove to be enough last year and you'll have to cross your fingers and bank on the touchdown for him to have significant fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Junior Hemingway, KC @DEN 002400000 ***
In theory the Chiefs will have to throw to keep pace with Peyton Manning & Co. and secondary targets such as Hemingway should have value. However, in last season's series with Denver--under those exact circumstances--only Dwayne Bowe scored or topped 50 yards. So, theory disproved.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @DEN 004501000 **
Despite one less target than Anthony Fasano last week, Kelce produced more yardage; he just didn't get the touchdown. It's a coin flip between the two tight ends, but Kelce is the young up-and-comer so he calls "tails" this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Anthony Fasano, KC @DEN 003300000 **
Fasano scored in both ends of the season series with Denver last year, plus he scored last week. And the Broncos gave up a TE TD while facing the talented Indy tandem of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener last week. So we're sayin' there's a chance; we're just sayin' we prefer Kelce's chances this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC @DEN 0022 ***
The Brazilian went 50/50 on last week's attempts, and given that you don't keep pace with Peyton Manning by settling for field goals he's unlikely to see a dramatic enough uptick in chances or productivity to warrant fantasy consideration here.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

a d v e r t i s e m e n t