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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: IND 27, KC 13 (Line: IND by 6.5)

Players Updated: Tony Moeaki. Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne

The 9-5 Colts cannot win their division but have a full game lead over all other teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road but the 2-12 Chiefs are 1-6 at home and won only once in the last 11 games. Imagine - the Colts with 10 wins after dumping nearly every offensive skill player last spring.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN 27-23
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU 17-29
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 250,2
RB Frank Gore 50 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-30
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It did not go well in Houston who finally got all the pieces to their defense back and held the Colts to their lowest score in eight weeks. But the schedule ends with this delightful matchup in Kansas City (assuming the Chiefs show up and do not forfeit) and then a home game against the Texans which may be a great situation. The Texans can secure the #1 seed with a win over the visiting Vikings this week and then can rest players in that season finale.

Andrew Luck has been less prolific in recent weeks and may end up passed for the Rookie of the Year by Robert Griffin III who has been hot at the end of the season when the voting will happen. Luck still manages to score in every game and threw for 391 yards and four scores as recently as week 13. He's been less productive for the last six week otherwise though.

Victor Ballard is getting a full workload now and wrapping up a starting gig next year. He ran for 94 yards on 19 carries against the Titans and then 105 yards on 18 runs in Houston. He'll face another weaker defense again this week but the one thing that Ballard has failed to offer is touchdowns. He has only one rushing score all year.

Donnie Avery has been far too inconsistent to merit any further fantasy consideration and Reggie Wayne has gone cold in these last three weeks after being a top wideout through week 12. He's only scored once in three games and been held to fewer than 65 yards. Last week in Houston was his worst game of the year with just three receptions for 14 yards.

Playing in Kansas City should heal whatever ails. Reggie Wayne and Victor Ballard make good starts this week and Luck should post at least moderate fantasy points with upside for more. The Chiefs have only scored seven points over the last two games so the Colts may well end up coasting in the second half and short cut what could have been.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 29 4 20 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 18 22 14 11 29 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND SD 20000031030 ***
San Diego has been very strong against the position, and Luck is now without Donte Moncrief. His upside remains high, yet his floor is now much lower than before. The Bolts have given up a ton of yardage but only four TDs in two games, intercepting three passes along the way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND SD 6005200000 ***
San Diego gave up a lot of garbage-time points in Week 2, and among that comeback attempt was a receiving touchdown from the RB position. Gore is as good of a play as a 300-year-old running back ever will be as the offense likely tries to balance a little after losing Donte Moncrief.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Turbin, IND SD 101000000 **
Turbin doesn't belong on rosters or in lineups at this time, unless you play in a cavernous league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Phillip Dorsett, IND SD 002601000 ***
Donte Moncrief's injury ascends Dorsett in the pecking order. The former first-rounder has speed to burn and makes for a fine play in standard-scoring formats. He isn't likely to see enough balls to be a strong play in PPR. San Diego ranks 15th against WRs.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND SD 005800000 ***
Hilton isn't 100 percent recovered yet but was in good enough shape to play in Week 2. He'll see more looks with Donte Moncrief out, but that might not matter against Jason Verrett and plenty of shades. San Diego is a neutral matchup for fantasy receivers through two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND SD 004601000 ***
Get Allen into those lineups, including DFS contests. He's a TE1 against San Diego -- the third best matchup for TEs -- with Donte Moncrief out.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND SD 004501000 ***
Doyle is a good DFS buy this week. San Diego has given up the third most points to TEs.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND SD 2244 ***
Indy's offense should give the old guy plenty of chances to swing the old leg via extra points and a few field goal chances.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 250,1
RB Jamaal Charles 80 3-20
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-70,1

Pregame Notes: This is the final home game before heading to Denver and ending this horrible season. The only thing that has been accomplished is that the Chiefs are due a great draft pick in April. Romeo Crennel's first year as coach has been a disaster. The only thing that has been accomplished on the offense is that Jamaal Charles has one less year to play.

Brady "not the answer" Quinn suffered a rib injury and will be evaluated this week. He has started four games so far and scored in only one of them and remained under 160 yards in all but one. Rather than use Matt Cassel, the Chiefs may turn to Ricky Stanzi as the starter.

The problem in the passing game, aside from there being no real passer, is that there are no more receivers. Dwayne Bowe hit the injured reserve last week and Steve Breaston is not even active for games anymore. They are down to starting Jonathan Baldwin who has no catches in the last two weeks and then Devon Wylie and Jamar Newsome who would struggle to make the practice squad anywhere else in the NFL.

Jamal Charles was on a five game stretch of over 100 total yards but then crashed to only ten yards on nine carries. In his first meeting with the Chiefs, he was held to just four yards on five runs. He's been prolific in most other games but when he faces the Raiders this year he's just crushed and ignored.

There is not a shred of fantasy value on this team outside of Jamaal Charles. When they review where the offense is in the offseason, they might as well literally cut all the skill players other than Charles. Fortunately the Colts have a below average rush defense which makes Charles relevant again but the Chiefs game will begin and end with whatever he does. There is not even any players on the roster worthy of a look-see for next season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 28 26 31
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 20 28 10 25 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC NYJ 0000026021 ***
This could be a fine time to deploy Smith. He may have to pass more than usual and finds the seventh easiest matchup in Week 3. Toss him into DFS lineups at a minimum.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Spencer Ware, KC NYJ 5014300000 ***
Only seven teams have been tougher against RBs than New York, but that is somewhat because the Jets have been so easily exploited aerially. Ware stumbled a bit in Week 2 for fantasy purposes, and he's probably not 100 percent healthy. Check high expectations at the door, but let him in on the party.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, KC NYJ 0071001000 ***
It can be presumed Maclin will draw Darrelle Revis, which isn't exactly a fantasy death sentence anymore. Confidently play the receiver as a PPR WR2 or No. 3 in standard. NYJ has permitted the third most points to wideouts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Conley, KC NYJ 004500000 ***
Conley has no value at this point in traditional formats, despite a great matchup. Maybe DFSers with a lot of brawn.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC NYJ 006601000 ***
The Jets present a strong defense of tight ends to the tune of 7-86-0 through two contests. Kelce doesn't deserve to benched and has a fair shot at scoring this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cairo Santos, KC NYJ 2233 ***
One tough defensive matchup and a midrange offense generally translate to field goal tries.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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