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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: IND 27, KC 13 (Line: IND by 6.5)

Players Updated: Tony Moeaki. Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne

The 9-5 Colts cannot win their division but have a full game lead over all other teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road but the 2-12 Chiefs are 1-6 at home and won only once in the last 11 games. Imagine - the Colts with 10 wins after dumping nearly every offensive skill player last spring.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN 27-23
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU 17-29
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 250,2
RB Frank Gore 50 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-30
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It did not go well in Houston who finally got all the pieces to their defense back and held the Colts to their lowest score in eight weeks. But the schedule ends with this delightful matchup in Kansas City (assuming the Chiefs show up and do not forfeit) and then a home game against the Texans which may be a great situation. The Texans can secure the #1 seed with a win over the visiting Vikings this week and then can rest players in that season finale.

Andrew Luck has been less prolific in recent weeks and may end up passed for the Rookie of the Year by Robert Griffin III who has been hot at the end of the season when the voting will happen. Luck still manages to score in every game and threw for 391 yards and four scores as recently as week 13. He's been less productive for the last six week otherwise though.

Victor Ballard is getting a full workload now and wrapping up a starting gig next year. He ran for 94 yards on 19 carries against the Titans and then 105 yards on 18 runs in Houston. He'll face another weaker defense again this week but the one thing that Ballard has failed to offer is touchdowns. He has only one rushing score all year.

Donnie Avery has been far too inconsistent to merit any further fantasy consideration and Reggie Wayne has gone cold in these last three weeks after being a top wideout through week 12. He's only scored once in three games and been held to fewer than 65 yards. Last week in Houston was his worst game of the year with just three receptions for 14 yards.

Playing in Kansas City should heal whatever ails. Reggie Wayne and Victor Ballard make good starts this week and Luck should post at least moderate fantasy points with upside for more. The Chiefs have only scored seven points over the last two games so the Colts may well end up coasting in the second half and short cut what could have been.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 29 4 20 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 18 22 14 11 29 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jacoby Brissett, IND TEN 00000000 *
Brissett was good for just 16.1 fantasy points in the last meeting with the Titans. While Tennessee's secondary was obliterated by Big Ben last week, Brissett doesn't have the talent or weaponry to suggest he can do the same. No bye weeks also make it tougher to start him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marlon Mack, IND TEN 3012200000 ***
While the Titans have held RBs in check from a touchdown perspective, giving up just one score on the last 73 attempts, this is a great matchup through the air. Backs have managed 8.8 catches for 59 yards a game, both ranking second.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, IND TEN 5001100000 ***
Gore averaged a quality 4.9 yards on 10 carries in the Week 6 meeting. He was not all too productive in last year's contests. Tennessee offers one of the better matchups in Week 12, though it may not be this Colts back who reaps the benefits.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chester Rogers, IND TEN 002401000 *
Rogers doesn't belong near a fantasy lineup, even with a decent projection for this game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donte Moncrief, IND TEN 003300000 ***
In Week 6, he caught five of seven targets for 67 yards -- one of his better games in 2017. Certainly his highest catch volume.... The Titans were embarrassed in the second half last week against Big Ben's receiving corps. While this is a much different situation, at least there is a smidge of upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND TEN 002300000 **
This is a very conservative projection and one to heed if you value safety over a big gamble. Hilton shredded them last year and has done well historically vs. Tennessee. In the earlier meeting this season, though, he was held to one catch. The matchup is ideal for Hilton to rip off a big play or two, so feel free to toss him into a lineup with the acceptance of failure in mind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jack Doyle, IND TEN 005400000 ***
Doyle went for 18 fantasy points in PPR the last time against Tennessee in Week 6. He scored in one of the two games last year. Since that Week 6 game, the Titans have given up 20 catches in four games, with only one finding the end zone.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND TEN 2222 ***
This is the seventh-best matchup for field goal attempts and 10th for fantasy points against. Kickers have made 8.8 of a possible 9.0 fantasy points per game.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: This is the final home game before heading to Denver and ending this horrible season. The only thing that has been accomplished is that the Chiefs are due a great draft pick in April. Romeo Crennel's first year as coach has been a disaster. The only thing that has been accomplished on the offense is that Jamaal Charles has one less year to play.

Brady "not the answer" Quinn suffered a rib injury and will be evaluated this week. He has started four games so far and scored in only one of them and remained under 160 yards in all but one. Rather than use Matt Cassel, the Chiefs may turn to Ricky Stanzi as the starter.

The problem in the passing game, aside from there being no real passer, is that there are no more receivers. Dwayne Bowe hit the injured reserve last week and Steve Breaston is not even active for games anymore. They are down to starting Jonathan Baldwin who has no catches in the last two weeks and then Devon Wylie and Jamar Newsome who would struggle to make the practice squad anywhere else in the NFL.

Jamal Charles was on a five game stretch of over 100 total yards but then crashed to only ten yards on nine carries. In his first meeting with the Chiefs, he was held to just four yards on five runs. He's been prolific in most other games but when he faces the Raiders this year he's just crushed and ignored.

There is not a shred of fantasy value on this team outside of Jamaal Charles. When they review where the offense is in the offseason, they might as well literally cut all the skill players other than Charles. Fortunately the Colts have a below average rush defense which makes Charles relevant again but the Chiefs game will begin and end with whatever he does. There is not even any players on the roster worthy of a look-see for next season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 28 26 31
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 20 28 10 25 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC BUF 0000024010 ***
It's not that Buffalo is necessarily a great defense against quarterbacks as much as its run defense is so miserable that quarterbacks don't have to throw all too much. Last week, Philip Rivers demonstrated just how poor the aerial D can play. Smith is still a risky start based on the entire recoiling of the offense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC BUF 11014300000 ***
If this isn't the game in which Hunt gets on track, he may not again in 2017. The Bills have given up two rushing scores per game, plus one through the air on 30 catches. The matchup is No. 1 in rushing and receiving TD frequency, as well as fantasy points in both scoring formats. It's second in offensive yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC BUF 004500000 **
The vertical passing game of the Chiefs has fallen flat in recent games. This week, at least the upside is present, and Hill's athleticism makes him a threat. Buffalo has given up a lot of catches (8th most) per game, but the big plays haven't been there outside of last week's total meltdown. Tread cautiously.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demarcus Robinson, KC BUF 002300000 ***
Regardless of a matchup or uptick in action, Robinson is not trustworthy enough for lineup inclusion in Week 12.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Albert Wilson, KC BUF 00000000 *
Wilson's status is unclear at this time.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC BUF 0061001000 ***
Tight ends have averaged 5.2 catches (9th) for 60.2 yards (6th) a game vs. the Bills, with one in 13 scoring (18th).
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC BUF 3333 ***
Largely powered by last week's thorough drubbing, this is easily the best matchup for extra points. Field goals against don't lag too far behind. The Bills represent the fifth-best matchup overall.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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