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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: IND 27, KC 13 (Line: IND by 6.5)

Players Updated: Tony Moeaki. Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Andrew Luck, Reggie Wayne

The 9-5 Colts cannot win their division but have a full game lead over all other teams for the #5 seed wildcard. The Colts are only 3-4 on the road but the 2-12 Chiefs are 1-6 at home and won only once in the last 11 games. Imagine - the Colts with 10 wins after dumping nearly every offensive skill player last spring.

Indianapolis Colts
Homefield: Lucas Oil Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CHI 21-41 10 @JAC 27-10
2 MIN 23-20 11 @NE 24-59
3 JAC 17-22 12 BUF 20-13
4 BYE ----- 13 @DET 35-33
5 GB 30-27 14 TEN 27-23
6 @NYJ 9-35 15 @HOU 17-29
7 CLE 17-13 16 @KC -----
8 @TEN 19-13 17 HOU -----
9 MIA 23-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 250,2
RB Vick Ballard 90,1 3-20
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey 4-40
WR T.Y. Hilton 2-30
WR Reggie Wayne 6-90,1
TE Dwayne Allen 4-40
TE Coby Fleener 2-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: It did not go well in Houston who finally got all the pieces to their defense back and held the Colts to their lowest score in eight weeks. But the schedule ends with this delightful matchup in Kansas City (assuming the Chiefs show up and do not forfeit) and then a home game against the Texans which may be a great situation. The Texans can secure the #1 seed with a win over the visiting Vikings this week and then can rest players in that season finale.

Andrew Luck has been less prolific in recent weeks and may end up passed for the Rookie of the Year by Robert Griffin III who has been hot at the end of the season when the voting will happen. Luck still manages to score in every game and threw for 391 yards and four scores as recently as week 13. He's been less productive for the last six week otherwise though.

Victor Ballard is getting a full workload now and wrapping up a starting gig next year. He ran for 94 yards on 19 carries against the Titans and then 105 yards on 18 runs in Houston. He'll face another weaker defense again this week but the one thing that Ballard has failed to offer is touchdowns. He has only one rushing score all year.

Donnie Avery has been far too inconsistent to merit any further fantasy consideration and Reggie Wayne has gone cold in these last three weeks after being a top wideout through week 12. He's only scored once in three games and been held to fewer than 65 yards. Last week in Houston was his worst game of the year with just three receptions for 14 yards.

Playing in Kansas City should heal whatever ails. Reggie Wayne and Victor Ballard make good starts this week and Luck should post at least moderate fantasy points with upside for more. The Chiefs have only scored seven points over the last two games so the Colts may well end up coasting in the second half and short cut what could have been.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 29 4 20 18 26
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 18 22 14 11 29 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Andrew Luck, IND HOU 20000028022 ***
Luck has the double task of extending his own rookie passing record and improving the Colts' playoff seed. He's hovered around 200 yards each of the past three games, but he did throw two TDs against the Texans a couple weeks back. Luck averaged around 280 passing yards per game at home, and with a little something still left to play for look for him to keep chucking.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Vick Ballard, IND HOU 8003200000 ***
Ballard banged out 105 yards against the Texans a couple weeks back--yes, the same Texans' D that held Adrian Peterson in check last week. With playoff seeding on the line, expect a better effort from Houston's run defense--and more of the offensive load to fall on Andrew Luck and the passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Reggie Wayne, IND HOU 006801000 ***
Houston held Wayne in check a couple weeks back, but a dozen targets and a touchdown last week against the Chiefs provides reassurance that he's still Andrew Luck's go-to guy. This game still has meaning, so Wayne won't be ignored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR T.Y. Hilton, IND HOU 004600000 ***
Hilton was Indy's leading receiver in the previous meeting with Houston, but he's reliant on a home run ball and as such difficult to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, IND HOU 003300000 **
with Matt Leinart last week, DHB only gained 2-31. Throw in Terrelle Pryor this week and no reason to touch any Raiders receiver.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dwayne Allen, IND HOU 004401000 ***
The Texans have given up four TE TDs in the past three games, including one to Allen two weeks back. And with Coby Fleener still a non-factor, Allen isn't a bad bet to reprise his production from a couple weeks ago.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Adam Vinatieri, IND HOU 2122 ***
Vinny has multiple treys in each of his last three at home, and with Indy still looking to improve its playoff lot he should get plenty of chances to swing the leg this week.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND -----
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Ricky Stanzi 10
RB Jamaal Charles 80 3-20
RB Peyton Hillis 20
RB Dexter McCluster 6-60,1
WR Donnie Avery 4-50,1
WR Jonathan Baldwin 2-40
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40,1
TE Tony Moeaki
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: This is the final home game before heading to Denver and ending this horrible season. The only thing that has been accomplished is that the Chiefs are due a great draft pick in April. Romeo Crennel's first year as coach has been a disaster. The only thing that has been accomplished on the offense is that Jamaal Charles has one less year to play.

Brady "not the answer" Quinn suffered a rib injury and will be evaluated this week. He has started four games so far and scored in only one of them and remained under 160 yards in all but one. Rather than use Matt Cassel, the Chiefs may turn to Ricky Stanzi as the starter.

The problem in the passing game, aside from there being no real passer, is that there are no more receivers. Dwayne Bowe hit the injured reserve last week and Steve Breaston is not even active for games anymore. They are down to starting Jonathan Baldwin who has no catches in the last two weeks and then Devon Wylie and Jamar Newsome who would struggle to make the practice squad anywhere else in the NFL.

Jamal Charles was on a five game stretch of over 100 total yards but then crashed to only ten yards on nine carries. In his first meeting with the Chiefs, he was held to just four yards on five runs. He's been prolific in most other games but when he faces the Raiders this year he's just crushed and ignored.

There is not a shred of fantasy value on this team outside of Jamaal Charles. When they review where the offense is in the offseason, they might as well literally cut all the skill players other than Charles. Fortunately the Colts have a below average rush defense which makes Charles relevant again but the Chiefs game will begin and end with whatever he does. There is not even any players on the roster worthy of a look-see for next season.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 28 26 31
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 20 28 10 25 26

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, KC @DEN 6003200000 ***
The Chiefs' lone offensive weapon needs 44 yards to reach the 1,500-yard mark. He hit triple digits against a tough Broncos' run D in the earlier meeting, and you assume he'll get the carries necessary to hit his milestone. Then again, we've gone broke trying to understand what Romeo Crennel is thinking so there are no guarantees.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Dexter McCluster, KC @DEN 005300000 ***
McCluster is putting up numbers that make him the Chiefs' WR1. That's more an indictment of KC's passing game than an endorsement of McCluster's productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jonathan Baldwin, KC @DEN 005600000 ***
Baldwin has the only Chiefs WR TD in the past two months. Sorry, that's just not enough to warrant a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Donnie Avery, KC @DEN 004600000 ***
Avery has been an inconsistent wingman to Reggie Wayne, and the last time Indy faced the Texans it was TY Hilton who had the more productive game. With playoff positioning at stake expect Andrew Luck to lean heavily on Wayne once again, and the Texans have a soft spot for TEs as well. That leaves Avery and Hilton splitting scraps, making either one a tough fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Devon Wylie, KC @DEN 003400000 ***
Bonus points if you were able to identify Wylie as the "other" Chiefs' WR. Sorry, those bonus points do not translate to fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Anthony Fasano, KC @DEN 002200000 ***
Fasano only had one catch in the last meeting with the Pats. No fantasy value here.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, KC @DEN 2111 ***
The Chiefs have more games with single-digit points (five) than games with 20-plus (four). That means limited scoring opportunities for Succop.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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