FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

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Prediction: NE 30, JAC 13 (Line: NE by 14.5)

Players Updated: Rob Gronkowski

Players to Watch: Cecil Shorts, Wes Welker

Losing to the 49ers last Sunday night dropped the 10-4 Patriots back into the #3 seed which means no bye and only one home field game. But this week they face the 2-12 Jaguars who have already packed their suitcases and are just watching the clock for for week 17 Sunday to be over. That the highest scoring offense in the NFL now faces a team that has declined to the point they do not score touchdowns could be concerning. The Pats will win of course but won't need 40 points to get the job done.

Pregame Notes: The loss to the 49ers really shook up the Patriots image coming on the heels of them looking so dominant against the Texans the previous week. The reality too is that both those games came at home where the Pats are always far better and losing that #2 seed may come back to haunt them. The Pats cannot afford any more losses either since they are only one game ahead of the Ravens now who have already beaten them back in week three to own that tie breaker should it be an issue.

The Pats almost never take any game lightly no matter what the situation is and in this case, they have to win and may want to flex some muscles doing it after last week's loss.

Tom Brady on the road has been plenty prolific other than facing inter-divisional foes and the Jaguars are soft in the secondary. But the are even worse against the running backs which could end up with a depressed stat line for Brady who won't need 400 yards to compete here.

The running backs are going to be harder to call than usual - and it has been largely impossible anyway - since both Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen lost fumbles last week and then disappeared from the game plan while Danny Woodhead had a big game holding onto the ball. Ridley's faux pas ended his six game scoring streak but he's fumbled before and not carried the shame into the next week. It will always be tough to accurately predict who does what here but Ridley should end up with his job back.

What is nice too is that Aaron Hernandez is finally showing up as a major weapon for the Patriots only three months after everyone drafted him with big expectations. He's caught at least eight passes in the last two games while scoring a total of three touchdowns.

Both the Texans and 49ers schemed to take Wes Welker away with great success but Brandon Lloyd picked up the slack finally with 89 yards against the Texans and 190 yards versus the 49ers. While he won't be needed nearly so much this week, it is nice to see him finally being in the game plan and producing more than the roughly 50 yards and no score he had going the rest of the season.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE	MIA	0	0	0	0	0	280	2	0
Brady is always a must start anyway but he settled for only 238 yards and one score in Miami this year. He's a lock for solid yardage and at least one score but this is less likely to become a monster game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Stevan Ridley, NE	MIA	80	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ridley will share the workload with the other three runners but he - and he alone - is consistent and productive enough to merit a start. Ridley already had 19-71 and a TD in Miami and should be good for more this week depending on the whims of Bill Belichick who may want to rest Ridley a little this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, NE	MIA	0	0	5	40	0	0	0	0
Amendola will be the main focus of the defense that only allowed two TDs to visiting wideouts this year and rarely more than 50 yards. His last two road games combined for only three catches and 43 yards so leave Amendola on your bench this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Michael Jenkins, NE	MIA	0	0	3	40	0	0	0	0
Jenkins is a great downfield blocker and reliable short-game target, but he's turned neither into much in the way of fantasy contributions this year.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Aaron Hernandez, NE	MIA	0	0	7	90	0	0	0	0
Hernandez caught eight passes for 97 yards versus the Fins this year and should end up taking the tight end workload alone again this week. Always a safe start but Fins have only allowed two scores to the position all year.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE	MIA	2	2	3	3
At home versus the Fins has to be at least average points at worse.

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars have won only once in the last 11 games and the offensive output that seemed to spike with Chad Henne starting has faded to where they cannot even score a touchdown anymore. This is the final home game of the year but that's hardly a reason to expect any progress.

The only difference this week is that Maurice Jones-Drew has not been ruled out yet and HC Mike Mularkey said he was "questionable" this week but closer to playing than he has been. There is really no reason to bring him back - the season was over long ago and MJD is only risking further injury for nothing. One has to expect a more earnest holdout this coming summer since the worst case just happened this year.

Cecil Shorts returned last week after missing the Jets game with a concussion and he turned in 101 yards on six catches in Miami right back to his high level of performance though it was his first time to not score a touchdown in the last five games played. Justin Blackmon has reeled in six catches in each of the last two games but has not scored since week 12. This is the last home game so it should help both receivers facing one of the weaker secondaries in the NFL.

Aqib Talib has been a great addition for the Patriots and he matches on Justin Blackmon which should depress his stats this week, not that they were that big to start with anyway. This will be the final home game for a team that has made very little progress in Mike Mularkey's first season as head coach. If MJD does play this week, it may have to do with it being the final home game but I'll project for another week of Montel Owens until a decision is made.

Sadly facing the Patriots secondary is not as much fun as it was earlier in the season.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Chad Henne, JAC	@TEN	0	0	0	0	0	200	1	2
Henne already racked up 261 yards and two scores on the Titans who have been good for at least one or two passing scores to every opponent. Losing Shorts this week won't help though nor will a road game. Can't expect more than moderate yardage and one score.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Montell Owens, JAC	@TEN	40	1	1	10	0	0	0	0
Owens has been a decent fantasy start for being a waiver wire find a few weeks back but he has really been ineffective in his two road games with never more than 50 total yards and never scoring. The Titans are not great against the run and allowed even Jennings to score once on them. The yardage is not likely to be much here but Owens has a very good shot to score once against a defense that has already allowed 18 touchdowns to running backs this year.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Justin Blackmon, JAC	@TEN	0	0	6	80	1	0	0	0
Blackmon posted 5-62 and one score against the Titans before but now Shorts will be gone. That could mean lots more passes for Blackmon or just more defensive coverage dedicated to him. He's as good as any Jaguar to score though and has enough upside to merit some consideration this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Jordan Shipley, JAC	@TEN	0	0	5	70	0	0	0	0
Shipley could see more work with Shorts out but nothing that would merit a fantasy start this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC	@TEN	0	0	5	40	0	0	0	0
Lewis gained 56 yards on four catches versus the Titans last time and the loss of Shorts could end up with more work for him. But he has only scored in one of the last 11 games and fell below 30 yards in each of his last three games.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC	@TEN	2	1	2	2
Never worthy of a fantasy start.

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