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David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: NYG 20, BAL 24 (Line: NYG by 1)

Players Updated: Ahmad Bradshaw

Players to Watch: Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice

This will be an important game. The 8-6 Giants recent loss drops them into a three-way tie in the NFC East and currently there are four teams tied for two wild card spots - any loss is a bad loss now for the reigning Super Bowl champions. But the G-Men are only 3-4 away from home. The 9-5 Ravens are just one game ahead of the Bengals for the AFC North and 5-2 at home but on a three game losing skid. It's Big Boy time with no margin for error anymore.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS 16-17
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO 52-27
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL 0-34
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 260,1
WR Victor Cruz 6-80,1
WR Dwayne Harris 4-50,1

Pregame Notes: The Giants have lost four of their last six games to fall back into the pack and now are in real danger of further sliding. There was a concern that Eli Manning had a "tired arm" since his passing was so off after week five and he even went three games without any touchdowns. He seemed to bounce back with 249 yards and three scores on the Packers and yet was back to only one touchdown versus the Redskins. Last week all was well against the Saints when he passed for four scores.

Here is the problem this week. Manning on the road has thrown a total of one touchdown over the last FOUR away games. He had five interceptions in those matchups bit only score and three of the efforts were less than 220 yards. Take away the Philly game and Manning has only thrown for two touchdowns over seven road games this year. That's going to be a factor.

Ahmad Bradshaw may be back this week according to him and yet may not according to HC Tom Coughlin who would rather Bradshaw shut up about his status. It appears most likely that he will return and share the backfield with David Wilson provided his knee remains good in practices. This will be updated through the week as the situation changes. WIlson was a dud last week as he took the start but only because he only received 12 carries in the blowout loss. He still gained 55 yards.

Hakeem Nicks follows the pattern perfectly - he only has three touchdowns on the year and those made for his best games. And all were at home. Victor Cruz was better with plenty of success in all venues through week seven and then his only two scores came in the most recent home games.

This game is harder to call since both teams are not playing as well as they did earlier in the year. But it is hard to ignore the difference in the Giants between home and away.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 21 9 10 21 2 6
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 10 25 15 4 30 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @PIT 0000022021 ***
Manning faces a Steelers defense that has allowed the fifth fewest fantasy points per game since Week 7. The Steelers have allowed a TD once every 16.8 completions, which rates as the 10th toughest defense in this metric.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Rashad Jennings, NYG @PIT 5002100000 ***
Jennings goes up against the Steelers, a defense that has allowed only 19.6 total PPR points per game. The bulk of that comes from giving up a TD every 32.3 offensive touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Paul Perkins, NYG @PIT 2002100000 ***
Pittsburgh has given up 17 receptions, 167 yards and one touchdown in the last four games. Perkins shouldn't be trusted in any fantasy format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham Jr, NYG @PIT 005701000 ***
Over the past five weeks, the Steelers have allowed three TDs on 47 catches, which is greatly in their favor. Beckham is a rare talent and can find ways to win that others haven't in this time. Pittsburgh has given up the 12th most yards per game, though, so there's some silver lining if he cannot score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG @PIT 005601000 ***
The matchup is not ideal, but Shepard could benefit from all of the attention paid to OBJ. Plus, there is a shot this game could require points to be scored if the Steelers can pile on the points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Victor Cruz, NYG @PIT 001300000 ***
Cruz has meant more to the Giants than fantasy gamers for most of the season. Keep him out of lineups and off of rosters in most conventional setups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Tye, NYG @PIT 002100000 ***
New York does not involve the position enough in its offense to consider starting Tye.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Robbie Gould, NYG @PIT 1122 ***
Gould faces the second worst matchup in terms of overall kicking chances in Pittsburgh. The position has attempted only three total kicks per contest over the last five weeks vs. the Steelers.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK 55-20
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT 13-10
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD 16-13
4 CLE 23-16 13 PIT 20-23
5 @KC 9-6 14 @WAS 28-31
6 DAL 31-29 15 DEN 17-34
7 @HOU 13-43 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE 25-15 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 250,2
WR Steve Smith Sr. 6-90,1
WR Mike Wallace 5-70,1
TE Dennis Pitta 5-50
TE Benjamin Watson 5-60,1
PK Justin Tucker 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens are on a three game losing streak, dumped their offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and then lost even worse to the visiting Broncos. The offense looked no better and maybe worse last week and yet again opted to little use Ray Rice while Joe Flacco completed only 20 of 40 passes. The Ravens cannot afford any more losses and even worse is the season finale that comes in Cincinnati against the team that they are only one game up on. For a 9-5 team, it all appears as dire as it gets. The defense has allowed over 30 points in the last two weeks and the offense is most often described as "inept".

Bernard Pierce sustained a concussion during Sunday's Week 15 game against the Broncos and may not play which would yield more opportunities for Rice. While Rice was limited to 12 runs last Sunday, Pierce still took five himself before leaving injured and in most weeks has eight or nine. This has to be a big game for Rice. He has scored in five of the last six games in Baltimore and can help keep the Giants pass rush from reaching Flacco so much after he has 15 sacks over just the last five games.

Dennis Pitta stepped up the last two weeks with one or more scores in each and 125 yards on seven catches in the Broncos loss. He may be needed yet again since Torrey Smith sustained a mild concussion last week and Anquan Boldin was held to no catches by Champ Bailey. Boldin scored in both of the previous two weeks though and gets a far better matchup this week. Smith has been a nonfactor since week 12 but mostly because the defenses specifically targeted to stop him. The Giants on the road have already allowed six passing scores to wideouts over just the last three road trips.

This is an equally important game for the Ravens who catch a break in playing at home instead of New York. The passing should be easier for Flacco who needs a decent showing but Ray Rice has to help control this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 19 12 19 10 11 9
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 26 10 29 15 16 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL MIA 0000027011 ***
A dozen teams have allowed more fantasy points per game than Miami over the last five weeks, but the Dolphins have made quarterbacks work for their points. They rank 21st in points per play, 20th in yards per attempt, and 23rd in yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kenneth Dixon, BAL MIA 4004300000 ***
This matchup is soundly in the camp of neutrality. Miami has given up one touchdown on the last 22 receptions faced, so there is potential for Dixon as a receiver out of the backfield.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Terrance West, BAL MIA 5003200000 ***
West hasn't exactly instilled a lot of confidence of late, but Miami offers a reasonable matchup if you're looking to (or have to) play him. The Dolphins have allowed the 14th most points per game in PPR leagues over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Steve Smith Sr., BAL MIA 006601000 ***
Smith has a tough matchup, but there is some hope. Miami has allowed three TDs in the last four games. Otherwise, any expectations of a big game should be reconsidered.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, BAL MIA 005600000 ***
Miami rates among the toughest six teams in overall matchup index, fantasy points allowed (PPR), and receiving touchdown efficiency for wideouts using data over the last five games. Without breaking free, Wallace's contributes figure to be nominal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Breshad Perriman, BAL MIA 003400000 ***
The matchup is harsh, and Perriman is consistently involved enough to justify taking a shot on him in fantasy circles.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dennis Pitta, BAL MIA 005400000 ***
This is a quality matchup if you want to take a shot that Pitta finds the end zone, as no team has given up TDs with the frequency that Miami has since Week 7. However, this is a neutral matchup otherwise.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL MIA 2222 ***
Fresh off of being a fantasy superhero, Tucker faces a midrange Miami matchup. The Dolphins have granted the 16th most points per game to kickers since Week 7.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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