FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: NYG 20, BAL 24 (Line: NYG by 1)

Players Updated: Ahmad Bradshaw

Players to Watch: Eli Manning, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice

This will be an important game. The 8-6 Giants recent loss drops them into a three-way tie in the NFC East and currently there are four teams tied for two wild card spots - any loss is a bad loss now for the reigning Super Bowl champions. But the G-Men are only 3-4 away from home. The 9-5 Ravens are just one game ahead of the Bengals for the AFC North and 5-2 at home but on a three game losing skid. It's Big Boy time with no margin for error anymore.

New York Giants
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 DAL 17-24 10 @CIN 13-31
2 TB 41-34 11 BYE -----
3 @CAR 36-7 12 GB 38-10
4 @PHI 17-19 13 @WAS 16-17
5 CLE 41-27 14 NO 52-27
6 @SF 26-3 15 @ATL 0-34
7 WAS 27-23 16 @BAL -----
8 @DAL 29-24 17 PHI -----
9 PIT 20-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYG @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Eli Manning 260,1
WR Victor Cruz 6-80,1
WR Dwayne Harris 4-50,1
PK Josh Brown 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Giants have lost four of their last six games to fall back into the pack and now are in real danger of further sliding. There was a concern that Eli Manning had a "tired arm" since his passing was so off after week five and he even went three games without any touchdowns. He seemed to bounce back with 249 yards and three scores on the Packers and yet was back to only one touchdown versus the Redskins. Last week all was well against the Saints when he passed for four scores.

Here is the problem this week. Manning on the road has thrown a total of one touchdown over the last FOUR away games. He had five interceptions in those matchups bit only score and three of the efforts were less than 220 yards. Take away the Philly game and Manning has only thrown for two touchdowns over seven road games this year. That's going to be a factor.

Ahmad Bradshaw may be back this week according to him and yet may not according to HC Tom Coughlin who would rather Bradshaw shut up about his status. It appears most likely that he will return and share the backfield with David Wilson provided his knee remains good in practices. This will be updated through the week as the situation changes. WIlson was a dud last week as he took the start but only because he only received 12 carries in the blowout loss. He still gained 55 yards.

Hakeem Nicks follows the pattern perfectly - he only has three touchdowns on the year and those made for his best games. And all were at home. Victor Cruz was better with plenty of success in all venues through week seven and then his only two scores came in the most recent home games.

This game is harder to call since both teams are not playing as well as they did earlier in the year. But it is hard to ignore the difference in the Giants between home and away.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYG 21 9 10 21 2 6
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 10 25 15 4 30 8

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Eli Manning, NYG @MIN 0000023012 ***
You saw what this group did to Cam Newton, right? Woof. Overall, though, Minnesota is technically the last of the "plus" matchups. Give the Vikes more credit than the numbers suggest, and it is in their new home stadium. Eli is an extremely risky play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bobby Rainey, NYG @MIN 3003200000 **
Update: It appears as though Rashad Jennings will miss another game. Rainey has no place in the conversation of fantasy starters.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Orleans Darkwa, NYG @MIN 3001100000 **
Shane Vereen is out for the year, which leaves Darkwa and possibly Rashad Jennings (hand), if he can play with a cast, to shoulder the load. Maybe rookie Paul Perkins joins the fun. Play Darkwa only out of sheer desperation.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Paul Perkins, NYG @MIN 2002200000 *
Update: Perkins should see touches in replacement of Shane Vereen, but how many is anyone's guess. Play him only in PPR and only if you have no other viable choice or want to take a huge risk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Odell Beckham Jr, NYG @MIN 006701000 **
The Vikes have allowed one touchdown on 35 catches by wideouts. Beckham is a must-play, even with the tough matchup. He typically is immune to them anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sterling Shepard, NYG @MIN 005500000 ***
Shepard played every snap but one on offense last week, and he's a WR3 play in PPR leagues. With all of the attention paid to OBJ, perhaps Shepard slides into the end zone this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Victor Cruz, NYG @MIN 004300000 ***
Cruz is a fringe flex play in PPR leagues. The Vikings have ceded a fair number of catches (35) but only one touchdown, ranking as the fifth hardest matchup for the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Larry Donnell, NYG @MIN 003200000 ***
While Donnell is not part of the game plan in a large enough way to make him a fantasy consideration, it never helps facing a defense like Minnesota's -- one that has prevented tight ends from scoring so far.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Brown, NYG @MIN 3311 ***
Three teams are tougher against kickers. Minnesota's stifling defense has held opponents to just four total touchdowns and only three field goal kicks, with only two splitting the goalposts.

Baltimore Ravens
Homefield: M&T Bank Stadium
Sport Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 CIN 44-13 10 OAK 55-20
2 @PHI 23-24 11 @PIT 13-10
3 NE 31-30 12 @SD 16-13
4 CLE 23-16 13 PIT 20-23
5 @KC 9-6 14 @WAS 28-31
6 DAL 31-29 15 DEN 17-34
7 @HOU 13-43 16 NYG -----
8 BYE ----- 17 @CIN -----
9 @CLE 25-15 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs NYG Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 250,2
WR Steve Smith Sr. 6-90,1
WR Mike Wallace 5-70,1
TE Dennis Pitta 5-50
TE Benjamin Watson 5-60,1
PK Justin Tucker 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens are on a three game losing streak, dumped their offensive coordinator Cam Cameron and then lost even worse to the visiting Broncos. The offense looked no better and maybe worse last week and yet again opted to little use Ray Rice while Joe Flacco completed only 20 of 40 passes. The Ravens cannot afford any more losses and even worse is the season finale that comes in Cincinnati against the team that they are only one game up on. For a 9-5 team, it all appears as dire as it gets. The defense has allowed over 30 points in the last two weeks and the offense is most often described as "inept".

Bernard Pierce sustained a concussion during Sunday's Week 15 game against the Broncos and may not play which would yield more opportunities for Rice. While Rice was limited to 12 runs last Sunday, Pierce still took five himself before leaving injured and in most weeks has eight or nine. This has to be a big game for Rice. He has scored in five of the last six games in Baltimore and can help keep the Giants pass rush from reaching Flacco so much after he has 15 sacks over just the last five games.

Dennis Pitta stepped up the last two weeks with one or more scores in each and 125 yards on seven catches in the Broncos loss. He may be needed yet again since Torrey Smith sustained a mild concussion last week and Anquan Boldin was held to no catches by Champ Bailey. Boldin scored in both of the previous two weeks though and gets a far better matchup this week. Smith has been a nonfactor since week 12 but mostly because the defenses specifically targeted to stop him. The Giants on the road have already allowed six passing scores to wideouts over just the last three road trips.

This is an equally important game for the Ravens who catch a break in playing at home instead of New York. The passing should be easier for Flacco who needs a decent showing but Ray Rice has to help control this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 19 12 19 10 11 9
Preventing Fantasy Points NYG 26 10 29 15 16 7

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Joe Flacco, BAL OAK 0000028020 ***
Oakland is the third easiest matchup for quarterbacks this season as one of two teams to give up 1,000-plus yards. Flacco is getting into the swing of things and should be a midrange QB1 this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Justin Forsett, BAL OAK 6003200000 ***
The Raiders have given up an offensive touchdown per game to the position, ranking as the eighth softest matchup for PPR backs. Starting Forsett is a gamble, even against a weak opponent.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Terrance West, BAL OAK 5002200000 ***
West has no fantasy value without finding the end zone, and that's one of the few areas against running backs in which the Raiders have been strong, giving up only two scores in three games on the ground.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Wallace, BAL OAK 005901000 ***
Only the Bills have allowed more PPR WR points than the Raiders, which is driven by tons of yardage but only two scores. The Raiders have been more well-rounded in their suckiness: 43 receptions, 664 yards, 5 TDs allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Steve Smith Sr., BAL OAK 007700000 ***
Smith caught eight balls last week and is slowly coming around after last year's devastating injury. The Raiders have been terrible against wide receivers, and Joe Flacco may need to chuck it to keep pace with Derek Carr's offense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Breshad Perriman, BAL OAK 002200000 ***
Maybe this is the week Perriman's speed leads to a big one? Oakland has stunk against receivers, giving up the second most plays of 40-plus to receivers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Dennis Pitta, BAL OAK 007801000 ***
Tight ends have done OK vs. Oakland, accounting for 245 yards but only one score. Pitta is a fringe fantasy play with some upside.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Justin Tucker, BAL OAK 2222 ***
Tucker's accuracy and leg strength make him a sound fantasy play every week. Oakland has given up five field goals on seven attempts in three games.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

a d v e r t i s e m e n t