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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: SD 10, NYJ 20 (Line: NYJ by 1.5)

Players to Watch: Greg McElroy, Danario Alexander

The 5-9 Chargers are only 3-4 on the road and trying to get out of the year without losing any more players. The 6-7 Jets are changing quarterbacks this week. It is finally Tebow Time McElroy Time! Man this game is going to be hard to watch.

San Diego Chargers
Homefield: Qualcomm Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @OAK 22-14 10 @TB 24-34
2 TEN 38-10 11 @DEN 23-30
3 ATL 3-27 12 BAL 13-16
4 @KC 37-20 13 CIN 13-20
5 @NO 24-31 14 @PIT 34-24
6 DEN 24-35 15 CAR 7-31
7 BYE ----- 16 @NYJ -----
8 @CLE 6-7 17 OAK -----
9 KC 31-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SD @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers 230,1
RB Dexter McCluster 6-60,1
WR Stevie Johnson 6-80,1
TE Jeff Cumberland 4-40,1
TE Antonio Gates 4-40

Pregame Notes: The seasons seems to ending as if someone on the Chargers staff said "well it cannot get any worse." Because it can and did. Now Ryan Mathews will have started and ended his season with two different broken collarbones. The player who would be a workhorse ended up more of a petting zoo pony destined to become dog food. The Chargers also placed Malcom Floyd on injured reserve with an ankle injury that would take more than two weeks to heal.

Philip Rivers comes off a season worst 121 yards last week with two lost fumbles. That brings him up to 15 interceptions and seven fumbles on the year. To his credit he has been able to remain above 200 yards in almost all the other games but a team that was to start out with Vincent Brown and Malcom Floyd is ending with Danario Alexander and... and... is Robert Meachem even in the NFL anymore? Fortunately he is still guaranteed $5 million next year. He'll show up. Sort of.

The running game now will be handled by some committee of Curtis Brinkley and Jackie Battle which is every bit as bad as it sounds. The problem too is that while Danario Alexander has been a standout on a team with really no others, but by now he is so much the last man standing that defenses will key on him and not worry too much about whatever else the Chargers line up. Alexander has been great since week nine and yet had no catches on three passes just last week. Facing the Jets secondary this week probably means the free agent acquisition gravy train is about over. He has potential and upside though and that counts on a team that really does not have any others that can step up.

Antonio Gates is done and just punching the clock. For the last five weeks, he has never gained more than 49 yards in any game and scored only once.

Hard to imagine how the Chargers, on the road, can make a game of this. Even against the Jets.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 23 21 26 14 21 4
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 5 27 2 13 12 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Philip Rivers, SD @CAR 0000028022 ***
Carolina has given up 277.8 passing yards and 1.2 TDs per game to quarterbacks over the last five weeks. The position has average a TD every 23.5 completions, which is the second stiffest figure in the league.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Melvin Gordon, SD @CAR 7005500000 ***
Gordon, of course, is a lineup fixture. The Panthers have permitted the ninth most points per game in PPR, and only two teams have allowed more catches per contest.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyrell Williams, SD @CAR 003601000 ***
Carolina rates as the 12th most exploitable matchup entering Week 14, and while Williams is not 100 percent, he can still contribute. Toss him in as a flex play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dontrelle Inman, SD @CAR 006900000 ***
Carolina has surrendered the seventh highest average of catches per game since Week 8. Add in the Panthers being the 13th worst at stopping yardage and 12th at fantasy points ... Inman looks all right.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Travis Benjamin, SD @CAR 002300000 ***
Benjamin hasn't been right since spraining his knee. Keep him in reserve this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Antonio Gates, SD @CAR 003301000 ***
This is soundly a top-12 matchup to exploit for tight ends. Since Week 8, the Panthers have granted three touchdowns on 29 catches and 63.6 yards a game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Hunter Henry, SD @CAR 002200000 ***
The matchup is worthy, but Henry has been shaky in the last month or so ... without a touchdown, his usefulness in fantasy is non-existent. The looks just haven't been there, despite scoring in two of his last three outings.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Lambo, SD @CAR 2222 ***
No team has surrendered more field goal tries (3.2 per game) than Carolina in the last five weeks, and the position is 10-for-10 on extra point kicks since Week 8.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN 10-14
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD -----
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 210,1
RB Matt Forte 70 5-40
RB Bilal Powell 60,1 5-30
WR Eric Decker 4-50
WR Brandon Marshall 7-80,1
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: There is no shame in fighting the good fight and coming up short knowing you did all you could to win the game. There is no shame in falling short against a quality opponent and losing more on the unnatural bounces of an oblong ball in an even match. However, there is plenty of shame in losing to the Titans and completing only 13 of 28 for 131 yards and one score with four interceptions and a lost fumble. It finally proved enough to send Mark Sanchez to the bench where he has to remain ever on at least in New York. Now instead of appeasing the media-driven world and maybe making the preseason trade make sense, the Jets have opted to go to Greg McElroy Jr. as the starting quarterback.

This has angered the Tebow who will be very sternly and yet politely asking for a trade in the offseason since that whole "you're up when Sanchez is down" thing was apparently not really accurate. It would have been great to see Tebow win the game in a big way - a possibility with the Chargers coming to town - and yet perhaps that is why they did not.

Braylon Edwards signed his free agent contract last week and immediately ran down to the field where he caught three passes for 47 yards. He now starts over Chaz Schilens and across from Jeremy Kerley who has since lost any value he might have had. This game should be mostly about the run anyway and the Chargers injury-ravaged offense is likely to give away such good field position that even the Jets can make them into short scoring drives.

There is no play here other than Shonn Greene and Bilal Powell. Greene has rushed far better when at home and Powell is the better scorer with four touchdowns over the last five weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 20 29 19 31 17
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 22 16 24 7 7 23

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Bryce Petty, NYJ @SF 0000018011 *
Even facing a terrible pass defense like the Niners, Petty should remain firmly planted on the fantasy waiver wire.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @SF 11013200000 ***
Look for the Jets to pound the heck out of Forte in this one ... the Niners are fantasy worst defense of the position, and keeping Bryce Petty from making big mistakes will be the focus.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @SF 3001100000 ***
About the only thing San Fran hasn't be dreadful at versus running backs is giving up receptions -- the position has averaged 4.6 per game in the last five weeks. Otherwise, we're looking at easily the game's best matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @SF 005501000 ***
To Anderson's credit, he scored last week with Bryce Petty under center. The opponent is pathetic against receivers, so if you're a believer, take a flier on Anderson in DFS or deep leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ @SF 005500000 *
Marshall will see his fair share of looks, but the last time we saw Bryce Petty under center for an extended amount of action, Marshall was in the shadows. Play him only if you have no better choice, because at least the matchup is worth it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @SF 003300000 *
Enunwa is too inconsistent to deserve much lineup consideration in Week 14. The Jets also are turning back to Bryce Petty, so even with a great matchup, Enunwa is a fringe play in the deepest of setups.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @SF 1122 ***
How ugly ... a terrible defense versus a pathetic offense. San Fran has allowed only nine field goal attempts in the last five games, while kickers have nailed 17 of 18 XPAs in this period (worst in the league).

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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