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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: SF 20, SEA 17 (Line: SF by 1)

Players Updated: Sidney Rice

Players to Watch: Michael Crabtree. Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick

This is the late game on Sunday and should be a great one. This is probably for all the marbles in the NFC West or at the least to see if the Seahawks reach the playoffs. The 49ers already won 13-6 when they hosted this game in week seven. The 49ers also won 19-17 in Seattle last year in another year ending game. This one will be all about defense and likely low scoring unless the defenses can notch a score or two.

The forecast is for rain which will only slow this game down even more.

San Francisco 49ers
Homefield: Monster Park
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @GB 30-22 10 STL 24-24
2 DET 27-19 11 CHI 32-7
3 @MIN 13-24 12 @NO 31-21
4 @NYJ 34-0 13 @STL 13-16
5 BUF 45-3 14 MIA 27-13
6 NYG 3-26 15 @NE 41-34
7 SEA 13-6 16 @SEA -----
8 @ARI 24-3 17 ARI -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SF @ SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Colin Kaepernick 60,1 210
RB Frank Gore 50 1-10
RB LaMichael James 20
WR Jonathan Baldwin 2-40
WR Anquan Boldin 5-70,1
WR Michael Crabtree 5-80,1
WR Brandon Lloyd 4-60
TE Vernon Davis 1-20
PK Phil Dawson 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The 49ers can clinch the division with this game and realistically, even if they lost they only need to beat the visiting Cardinals in week 17 to secure the title by probably a half game. But this game takes another importance - the 49ers are currently the #2 seed and while they won't catch the Falcons to reach the #1, a loss here may allow the Packers to sneak past and get the #2 seed. Provided both the Packers and 49ers win or lose this week, the season finale for each will still have meaning since it will be for second round home field and a bye.

The difference this time around from seven weeks ago is that Colin Kaepernick has taken over at quarterback. Alex Smith passed for 140 yards and one score on the visiting Seahawks in week seven. In five starts, Kaepernick has not thrown for fewer than 185 yards and has been above 200 in all others.

He comes off a season best four scores and 216 yards in New England. Defending against a running quarterback is not what the Seahawks often do. The passing game should be better too with the Seahawks already missing RCB Brandon Browner who is on suspension and LCB Richard Sherman has his hearing on Friday when he will discover if he can play or not.

Frank Gore rushed for 131 yards on 16 carries in the first meeting and caught a season best 51 yards on five receptions. He has not passed 100 rush yards since and won't likely again this week in Seattle. LaMichael James is getting eight carries per week for about 30 yards but has only one reception.

Vernon Davis just missed on a long scoring pass last week but still ended up with just one reception for 10 yards. He's lost all fantasy value in the last month and did not have any catches in the last meeting with the Seahawks. He did not even get any targets.

The rookie A.J. Jenkins is suiting up but hasn't caught a pass so far. Randy Moss scored on the Patriots as a tip of the hat to his old employer but remains outside of any fantasy value. Michael Crabtree only ended with four receptions for 31 yards in the last meeting with the Seahawks but has been golden in almost every game since and scored three times in just the last two games. He already has eight touchdowns and three 100 yard games in this breakout season.

This will be a defensive battle though missing the starting corners could be an issue if Sherman is out as well. Crabtree should already get Browner's replacement anyway and Seattle has to decide how to defend the same offense as before only with a running quarterback.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SF 11 11 23 11 8 13
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 2 7 4 1 1 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colin Kaepernick, SF @ARI 20000020021 ****
From a fantasy perspective Kaepernick has largely disappointed since his 412 & 3 back in Week 1. He did throw for 252 & 2 against Arizona earlier this year, but he has just one game with multiple touchdown passes in the past month and hasn't topped 275 passing yards since Week 1 so he's no lock for fantasy success here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Frank Gore, SF @ARI 500000000 ***
The Cardinals have allowed just two RB TDs in Arizona and just five running back scores on the season. Gore owns the only 100-yard effort the Cards have given up, but Kendall Hunter swiped the TD when these clubs met back in Week 6. Frank hasn't scored on the road since Week 8 in Jacksonville, but if he sees the same 20-plus carries he's received each of the past two games he's a decent bet for fantasy productivity even given the tough matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Anquan Boldin, SF @ARI 005601000 ***
Boldin scored last week, and he continues to be just as targeted as Michael Crabtree. Between a stout Arizona secondary that hasn't allowed a WR TD since Week 10 and a run-first 49ers offense there's not a ton of upside here, but both wideouts are still solid bets to be at minimum fantasy helpers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Michael Crabtree, SF @ARI 003400000 ***
Arizona hasn't allowed a WR TD since Week 10; then again, they haven't had to face Crabtree yet, and he scored four times in the two-game series last year. Coming off a 102-yard outing, Crabtree is a solid bet to pace the San Francisco passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, SF @ARI 006801000 *****
The last time Davis saw the Cardinals he torched them for 8-180-2. Last week he broke hearts by pitching a shutout on Monday night, but this matchup with the most TE-friendly defense in the league should help him regain at least some of his street cred.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Phil Dawson, SF @ARI 2222 ***
Dawson had a dozen in the earlier meeting with Arizona and has double-digit points in four straight. No reason he won't get his kick on once again this week.

Seattle Seahawks
Homefield: Qwest Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @ARI 16-20 10 NYJ 28-7
2 DAL 27-7 11 BYE -----
3 GB 14-12 12 @MIA 21-24
4 @STL 13-19 13 @CHI 23-17
5 @CAR 16-12 14 ARI 58-0
6 NE 24-23 15 @BUF 50-17
7 @SF 6-13 16 SF -----
8 @DET 24-28 17 STL -----
9 MIN 30-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA vs SF Rush Catch Pass
QB Russell Wilson 30 210,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 100,1 1-10
WR Sidney Rice 3-40
TE Zach Miller 3-40
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Hard to argue with back-to-back games with 50 points or more. All of that doesn't so much matter this week other than the Seahawks have to be feeling plenty good about their offense lately despite racking up wins on bad teams. At 9-5, the Seahawks are currently in the lead for the #5 seed wildcard and even a loss this week doesn't necessarily mean they are out but will mean the final home game against the Rams has to be a win and then sort through the tie breakers with the other 10-6 teams.

Russell Wilson comes off his best game of the year by exponential factor when he had his standard 205 yard, one touchdown effort in Buffalo but added three rushing touchdowns and 92 yards on nine runs. He had never scored as a runner before and only once before topped 35 yards as a runner. Wilson only managed 122 passing yards and no scores in San Francisco back in week seven and ran for only 10 yards on three scampers.

Marshawn Lynch faces one of the top rushing defenses in the league but he already gained 103 yards on 19 runs back in week seven and his only efforts under 100 yards in the last eight weeks were all in road games, not at home. Lynch scored eight touchdowns in the seven games since the last 49ers matchup. His last three home games all produced over 120 rushing yards with at least one score.

The passing effort was so bad in the previous matchup that no tight end or wideout Golden Tate had a reception in the game and the best receiver ended up as Ben Obamanu with only three catches for 50 yards. This will be a defense battle to be sure and the 49ers were able to pin down even Tom Brady for three quarters last week.

The only fantasy play here is Marshawn Lynch just the same as really any other game this year. Wilson had a monster game as a runner last week but that's not likely to happen here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 17 6 21 23 17 8
Preventing Fantasy Points SF 4 2 1 14 2 11

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Terrelle Pryor, SEA STL 40000024012 *
Pryor last started in Week 10, when he threw for 122 yards and no scores. However, with Matt McGloin struggling the Raiders will go back to Pryor for the season finale. He tossed for 281 yards and a score in the earlier meeting with Denver, and he's always a threat with his feet so there's some fantasy upside to his game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Russell Wilson, SEA STL 20000016010 ***
It's been a month since Wilson's last multiple touchdown outing, and he's topped out at just 206 passing yards over that span. He threw for 139 and 2 in the win in St. Louis, but with just one rushing score in his last dozen games Wilson has had to rely on his passing for fantasy numbers--and they simply haven't been there.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA STL 7012100000 ***
The Rams haven't allowed a 50-yard rusher since Week 12, a 100-yard rusher since Week 9, and held Lynch to a pedestrian 23 yard outing back in Week 8. Lynch hasn't had a 100-yard game since Week 9, but he has nine touchdowns in seven home games and will at minimum get you a score--with the upside of something better.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Doug Baldwin, SEA STL 005600000 ***
Baldwin has the Seahawks' last three WR TDs, so he's the most likely candidate to take advantage of a Rams' secondary that's allowed at least one receiver to score or top 98 yards in each of the past six games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Miller, SEA STL 000004301 ****
Miller scored last week, but that was against Arizona--everybody's tight end scores against Arizona. This is the Rams, a team that held Miller to 14 yards in the previous meeting and has given up just four TE TDs on the season.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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