FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: TEN 13, GB 24 (Line: GB by 13)

Players Upated: Alex Green

Players to Watch: Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson

The 4-9 Titans are on a short week after playing Monday night and are just 2-5 away from home. The 10-4 Packers clinched the NFC North with their win over the Bears and are only a half game behind the 49ers for a #2 seed and a first round bye. This is the final regular season game at home. This is also going to be a cold game at around 20 degrees forecasted.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET 27-20
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI 21-13
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 250,2
WR Randall Cobb 6-100,1
WR Jordy Nelson
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: As it stands, the Packers won't know if they have a shot at the #2 seed until the 49ers and Seahawks play late on Sunday night. The 49ers wind up their season at home against the Cardinals which should be a lock for a win so realistically - the Packers may not have anything to win in the final week in Minnesota since they'll get the #3 seed regardless. This week should be the easy remaining game for the Packers and then they can end up chasing Adrian Peterson all over the field in the season finale.

Aaron Rodgers was on a three game slide with only one score in each and only moderate yardage. He posted 291 yards and three scores on the Bears last week to reverse the trend and faces another soft secondary again this week. Rodgers tweaked his ankle last week but claims it was not an issue. The biggest fear this week is that Rodgers ends up handing off a lot as he did in the three marginal fantasy games recently. The Titans are weak against the run and it would help keep Rodgers healthy.

Unfortunately, now the Packers are opting for using three running backs in rotation so that even though they combined for 28 carries, none of them had meaningful fantasy value. Alex Green remains the best bet but even he only ended with 35 yards on 13 carries while Ryan Grant was allowed eight runs for 32 yards. Throw in DuJuan Harris and even fullback John Kuhn and there is no reason to guess which one might do the most. They have all combined for only three touchdowns on the season anyway and none have gained more than 74 rush yards in any game.

Jordy Nelson remains out and there has been little in the way of any receiver having a big game aside from James Jones three scores last week on just five catches for 60 yards but he only managed two touchdowns over the previous six weeks and usually ends up with fewer than 50 yards per game. Randall Cobb topped 100 yards in the last two games but has not scored since back in week 11.

Notable this week is that Clay Matthews returned last week and was back to form. He'll be a major problem for the Titans and that could depress the game score. That could end up with more rushing and less need for Rodgers to air it out. The points are there for the taking but three of the last four games, Rodgers did not bother scoring any more than needed to win and relied on the run more.

I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 31 1 17 27 19
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 21 29 12 27 28 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @MIN 0000030030 ***
The only thing stopping Rodgers when these teams met earlier in the year was sportsmanship, as the Packers pulled the plug on A-Rod after just 17 attempts--three of them touchdowns. He's thrown 10 TDs in the past three games and topped 300 yards in all of them, so he's in your fantasy lineup even with the caveat that he may be a short-timer once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB @MIN 7013400000 ***
Lacy has scored and topped 90 yards in each of his three career games against the Vikings; that includes 13-105-2 earlier this season. No reason to think he can't be just as productive again this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @MIN 0061002000 ***
Nelson has scored in every Packers win--and failed to score in every Packers loss. So if you're picking the Packers here you have to believe Nelson will find the end zone this week. He did so on one catch in the earlier meeting, no reason to think he can't do so again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB @MIN 006801000 ****
Cobb has scored in six of the last seven and topped 120 yards in three of the last four. He scored against Minnesota in the earlier meeting and should have little difficulty getting his in the rematch.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @MIN 002300000 ***
Adams scored in the earlier meeting as the Packers built a big lead and went to the bench. He's more involved now, so he has an even better chance of being a fantasy factor.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Andrew Quarless, GB @MIN 002200000 ***
Quarless is splitting looks with Richard Rodgers, did little against the Vikings in the earlier matchup, and faces a Minnesota defense that's been surprisingly stout against tight ends all season long. It all adds up to being at the bottom of the pecking order for Aaron Rodgers' stats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @MIN 2244 ****
Multiple field goals in three straight and four of five, plus a butt-load (technical term) of PATs; you'll be just fine with Crosby this week.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 30 240,1
RB Jackie Battle 20 2-10
RB Shonn Greene 70
RB Dexter McCluster 6-60,1
WR Kris Durham 3-40
WR Nate Washington 5-60,1
TE Craig Stevens 2-20
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans come off their Monday night win and have a great shot at one more win in the season finale against the visiting Jaguars. The season is winding down with better defense than how it began but that's likely a function too of an offense that has been challenged to score more than 20 points in a game for the entire year.

Chris Johnson will get $9 million guaranteed next year if he remains on the roster after February so the Titans are deciding if he is worth all that cash with so much else that is needed on the team. Johnson spoke out this past week about his future and how it may not be in Tennessee so that only adds fuel to what may be a fire. Johnson is the only player that has been a true positive this year even if he lacks the consistency he had in previous seasons.

Johnson has been less effective for the last three games but peeled off a 94-yard touchdown against the Jets to total 122 yards on 21 carries on the game. As has always been the case, his yardage varies greatly since he either breaks a long run or not.

Craig Stevens replaced Jared Cook but that only meant he had two catches instead of just one.

Jake Locker has only been able to play in nine games this year and scored just nine times with most games producing moderate yardage. He hasn't sparked any offensive revival in Tennessee here in his first season as a starter but the learning curve is not done yet and he remains in the plans.

Kendall Wright will miss the last two games with a broken rib and that should turn into more work for Nate Washington who has lost all fantasy value this year. Washington has not scored since week nine and rarely has more than 50 or 60 yards in any game. Kenny Britt finally had one big game with 143 yards on the visiting Colts in week 14 but then was right back to just one catch last week. This remains a below average unit that still has no reliable fantasy value from any of the receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 28 20 13 20 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 14 17 20 3 13 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Zach Mettenberger, TEN @PHI 0000026012 ***
Philly has served up multiple touchdown passes in every game except one; Mettenberger has multiple scoring strikes in two of his three NFL starts. He's been less reliable on the road (small sample size, of course) so temper expectations, but there's at least reason for optimism here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN @PHI 6003200000 ***
Sankey is distancing himself from Shonn Greene in the Tennessee backfield, which isn't necessarily that impressive. It did, however, yield a touchdown last week and should do the same against a Philly D that's allowed five RB scores in the past four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN @PHI 006801000 ***
Wright remains the volume guy in Tennessee, and sometimes even turns that volume into a touchdown. With Philly surrendering five 100-yard games and seven WR TDs in just the past four games there's plenty of opportunity for Tennessee's receiving corps to take advantage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, TEN @PHI 004700000 ***
Despite being dramatically out-targeted Washington found the end zone last week. Philly has given up plenty to opposing WRs over the past month, so if you're in a pinch Washington could at least be on the fringe of your fantasy radar.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Hunter, TEN @PHI 003400000 ***
Philly has allowed five 100-yard outings and seven WR TDs in just the past four games, so if there ever were an opportunity for Hunter to dust off his deep ball skills it would be this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @PHI 003400000 ***
Philly hasn't given up a TE TD since Week 2, and with Walker still dinged up he's a bit of a fantasy risk this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @PHI 3311 ***
Succop has just one game of double-digit points in the past two months, and that came against Jacksonville. Don't expect a reprise here.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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