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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: TEN 13, GB 24 (Line: GB by 13)

Players Upated: Alex Green

Players to Watch: Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson

The 4-9 Titans are on a short week after playing Monday night and are just 2-5 away from home. The 10-4 Packers clinched the NFC North with their win over the Bears and are only a half game behind the 49ers for a #2 seed and a first round bye. This is the final regular season game at home. This is also going to be a cold game at around 20 degrees forecasted.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET 27-20
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI 21-13
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 250,2
WR Randall Cobb 6-100,1
WR Jordy Nelson
TE Martellus Bennett 5-50
TE Lance Kendricks 3-30
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: As it stands, the Packers won't know if they have a shot at the #2 seed until the 49ers and Seahawks play late on Sunday night. The 49ers wind up their season at home against the Cardinals which should be a lock for a win so realistically - the Packers may not have anything to win in the final week in Minnesota since they'll get the #3 seed regardless. This week should be the easy remaining game for the Packers and then they can end up chasing Adrian Peterson all over the field in the season finale.

Aaron Rodgers was on a three game slide with only one score in each and only moderate yardage. He posted 291 yards and three scores on the Bears last week to reverse the trend and faces another soft secondary again this week. Rodgers tweaked his ankle last week but claims it was not an issue. The biggest fear this week is that Rodgers ends up handing off a lot as he did in the three marginal fantasy games recently. The Titans are weak against the run and it would help keep Rodgers healthy.

Unfortunately, now the Packers are opting for using three running backs in rotation so that even though they combined for 28 carries, none of them had meaningful fantasy value. Alex Green remains the best bet but even he only ended with 35 yards on 13 carries while Ryan Grant was allowed eight runs for 32 yards. Throw in DuJuan Harris and even fullback John Kuhn and there is no reason to guess which one might do the most. They have all combined for only three touchdowns on the season anyway and none have gained more than 74 rush yards in any game.

Jordy Nelson remains out and there has been little in the way of any receiver having a big game aside from James Jones three scores last week on just five catches for 60 yards but he only managed two touchdowns over the previous six weeks and usually ends up with fewer than 50 yards per game. Randall Cobb topped 100 yards in the last two games but has not scored since back in week 11.

Notable this week is that Clay Matthews returned last week and was back to form. He'll be a major problem for the Titans and that could depress the game score. That could end up with more rushing and less need for Rodgers to air it out. The points are there for the taking but three of the last four games, Rodgers did not bother scoring any more than needed to win and relied on the run more.

I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 31 1 17 27 19
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 21 29 12 27 28 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brett Hundley, GB NO 20000022022 *
Hundley isn't a fantasy-worthy option at this time. The matchup isn't ideal, so consider him a fringe option down the line if he shows some competence in Week 7. The Saints has picked off seven balls to only six TDs allowed.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ty Montgomery, GB NO 3003201000 *
Pass-catching backs have done a fine job at exploiting the Saints. In the past four games, the position has averaged 7.8 receptions (2nd most) and 76.5 yards (2nd most). Only one of the 31 total catches in that window has found the end zone, however. One can assume Green Bay will rely more on the running backs without Aaron Rodgers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Aaron Jones, GB NO 4003300000 *
More powerful backs haven't fared so well against the Saints, a defense that has permitted 74.3 rushing yards and one ground score in the last 75 carries.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB NO 006701000 ***
When in doubt, Nelson gets the benefit of being the top dog in this passing game. Brett Hundley could prefer another target, although sitting Nelson to find out is not advised. Complicating this is the matchup. New Orleans has allowed WRs to score three times in the last 50 receptions faced, which ranks 22nd.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB NO 006600000 **
Adams caught a TD from Brett Hundley last week, but it's frankly a guessing game as to which receiver will get the majority of looks at this stage. The Saints have been awesome at corralling receivers, and Adams' value comes mostly from his ability to find the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB NO 003200000 ***
Cobb could see some checkdown work with Brett Hundley starting. Banking on anything is difficult at this stage of the Hundley era, and New Orleans will make it all that much harder. This secondary is rock solid.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, GB NO 002200000 ***
Brett Hundley could rely on Bennett more than usual. New Orleans has granted tight ends only 3.3 catches per contest, which is the third-lowest per-game average. In total, this is a decent matchup for scoring TDs but not much else.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB NO 3322 *
In the past four weeks, kickers have been reasonable productive against the Saints. In the three games when the position scored, kickers averaged nine points per game. In Week 4, Miami was shut out.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 230,1
RB DeMarco Murray 100,1 4-30
WR Eric Decker 4-50
WR Rishard Matthews 4-60
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans come off their Monday night win and have a great shot at one more win in the season finale against the visiting Jaguars. The season is winding down with better defense than how it began but that's likely a function too of an offense that has been challenged to score more than 20 points in a game for the entire year.

Chris Johnson will get $9 million guaranteed next year if he remains on the roster after February so the Titans are deciding if he is worth all that cash with so much else that is needed on the team. Johnson spoke out this past week about his future and how it may not be in Tennessee so that only adds fuel to what may be a fire. Johnson is the only player that has been a true positive this year even if he lacks the consistency he had in previous seasons.

Johnson has been less effective for the last three games but peeled off a 94-yard touchdown against the Jets to total 122 yards on 21 carries on the game. As has always been the case, his yardage varies greatly since he either breaks a long run or not.

Craig Stevens replaced Jared Cook but that only meant he had two catches instead of just one.

Jake Locker has only been able to play in nine games this year and scored just nine times with most games producing moderate yardage. He hasn't sparked any offensive revival in Tennessee here in his first season as a starter but the learning curve is not done yet and he remains in the plans.

Kendall Wright will miss the last two games with a broken rib and that should turn into more work for Nate Washington who has lost all fantasy value this year. Washington has not scored since week nine and rarely has more than 50 or 60 yards in any game. Kenny Britt finally had one big game with 143 yards on the visiting Colts in week 14 but then was right back to just one catch last week. This remains a below average unit that still has no reliable fantasy value from any of the receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 28 20 13 20 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 14 17 20 3 13 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN @CLE 10000023021 ***
Mariota's mobility was limited last week and he still posted a quality fantasy effort. The Browns have given up only 236.2 yards per game (18th) but touchdowns with the second-easiest frequency (one per 8.9 completions). This is the fifth-best matchup rating for Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN @CLE 7011100000 ***
Power backs haven't done so well against the Browns. Only two of the last 126 carries have scored, and the 78 yards per contest against this group rates 22nd. Short of another huge run, Henry may slide back into the realm of fantasy mediocrity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN @CLE 3001100000 *
The matchup suits Murray's versatility nicely. Don't expect a monster game, because Cleveland is at least respectable against the position, allowing a combined 128.4 yards per game (22nd). One of every 63 rushing attempts in the past five games has made its way into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN @CLE 004501000 **
While allowing the third-fewest receptions and sixth-lowest yardage figures in per-game data, this is the second-weakest defense against which to score a TD. Last season, Matthews posted a 3-70-1 line in Week 6 vs. Cleveland.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, TEN @CLE 004500000 ***
Decker should signs of life in Week 6 and has a reasonable matchup this time out. Cleveland has given up only 8.6 catches per game (3rd fewest) while surrendering a TD every 6.1 grabs (2nd highest). Decker is an intriguing boom-or-bust start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taywan Taylor, TEN @CLE 002300000 ***
The rookie is showing a knack for making splash plays, which inherently makes him a risky fantasy choice. The Browns only fuel the temptation, since this is the second-easiest team to score a TD on and also No. 2 in fantasy points per play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jonnu Smith, TEN @CLE 003201000 **
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @CLE 002200000 *
In 2016, against Cleveland, he caught one pass for 21 yards. The Browns have been pounded by the position, giving up the highest average of receptions per game (7.4) and the third-most yardage (75.4). PPR TEs rate third and non-PPR go fourth against this group.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @CLE 3333 ***
Succop is a lock from inside of 50 and draws a Browns team that has given up a mess of extra points (15-for-16) but only five three-pointers.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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