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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: TEN 13, GB 24 (Line: GB by 13)

Players Upated: Alex Green

Players to Watch: Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson

The 4-9 Titans are on a short week after playing Monday night and are just 2-5 away from home. The 10-4 Packers clinched the NFC North with their win over the Bears and are only a half game behind the 49ers for a #2 seed and a first round bye. This is the final regular season game at home. This is also going to be a cold game at around 20 degrees forecasted.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET 27-20
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI 21-13
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 250,2
WR Randall Cobb 6-100,1
WR Jordy Nelson
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: As it stands, the Packers won't know if they have a shot at the #2 seed until the 49ers and Seahawks play late on Sunday night. The 49ers wind up their season at home against the Cardinals which should be a lock for a win so realistically - the Packers may not have anything to win in the final week in Minnesota since they'll get the #3 seed regardless. This week should be the easy remaining game for the Packers and then they can end up chasing Adrian Peterson all over the field in the season finale.

Aaron Rodgers was on a three game slide with only one score in each and only moderate yardage. He posted 291 yards and three scores on the Bears last week to reverse the trend and faces another soft secondary again this week. Rodgers tweaked his ankle last week but claims it was not an issue. The biggest fear this week is that Rodgers ends up handing off a lot as he did in the three marginal fantasy games recently. The Titans are weak against the run and it would help keep Rodgers healthy.

Unfortunately, now the Packers are opting for using three running backs in rotation so that even though they combined for 28 carries, none of them had meaningful fantasy value. Alex Green remains the best bet but even he only ended with 35 yards on 13 carries while Ryan Grant was allowed eight runs for 32 yards. Throw in DuJuan Harris and even fullback John Kuhn and there is no reason to guess which one might do the most. They have all combined for only three touchdowns on the season anyway and none have gained more than 74 rush yards in any game.

Jordy Nelson remains out and there has been little in the way of any receiver having a big game aside from James Jones three scores last week on just five catches for 60 yards but he only managed two touchdowns over the previous six weeks and usually ends up with fewer than 50 yards per game. Randall Cobb topped 100 yards in the last two games but has not scored since back in week 11.

Notable this week is that Clay Matthews returned last week and was back to form. He'll be a major problem for the Titans and that could depress the game score. That could end up with more rushing and less need for Rodgers to air it out. The points are there for the taking but three of the last four games, Rodgers did not bother scoring any more than needed to win and relied on the run more.

I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 31 1 17 27 19
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 21 29 12 27 28 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB MIN 0000029020 ***
Rodgers has thrown for at least 250 yards in 10 straight against the Vikings, who have also allowed back-to-back 293- and 298-yard passing performances. Rodgers has also thrown for multiple TDs in 8 of his last 10 against Minnesota. Plenty of reasons to take Rodgers' advice and relax as you plug him into your fantasy lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB MIN 4012100000 ***
Lacy has blown up the Vikings in each of his two career meetings--158 combo yards and a TD at home, 112 yards from scrimmage and a touch in Minnesota. The Vikings have allowed at least one RB TD and a 60-plus yard rusher in each of the past three games, with Lacy a strong candidate to stretch that string to four.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB MIN 0081201000 ****
What's not to like? Minnesota's secondary has been only lightly challenged thus far this season, and between Nelson and Randall Cobb Green Bay is certain to tax them--with Nelson and his dozen targets per game leading the way.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB MIN 007901000 ***
Cobb is still looking for his first career touchdown against the Vikings, and he has an outstanding chance of breaking his maiden here: working out of the slot he'll be matched with the extremely fantasy-friendly Captain Munnerlyn for most of the evening.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB MIN 002300000 ***
No Jarrett Boykin opens the door wide for the rookie Adams; considering that Boykin's WR3 role yielded 149 yards and a touchdown in the two-game series with Minnesota last season, it's a door to a great fantasy opportunity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Richard Rodgers, GB MIN 002300000 ****
Rodgers continues to share looks with Andrew Quarless; moreover, the tight end has slipped to fourth in Aaron Rodgers' passing game pecking order. It's a somewhat favorable matchup, but the target split makes Rodgers an extremely difficult fantasy start.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB MIN 3333 ***
Crosby's only home game yielded three field goals--one more than he has in his other three games combined. The Pack should put plenty of points on the board, meaning Crosby is in line to get his.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 30 240,1
RB Jackie Battle 20 2-10
RB Shonn Greene 70
RB Dexter McCluster 6-60,1
WR Kris Durham 3-40
WR Nate Washington 5-60,1
TE Craig Stevens 2-20
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans come off their Monday night win and have a great shot at one more win in the season finale against the visiting Jaguars. The season is winding down with better defense than how it began but that's likely a function too of an offense that has been challenged to score more than 20 points in a game for the entire year.

Chris Johnson will get $9 million guaranteed next year if he remains on the roster after February so the Titans are deciding if he is worth all that cash with so much else that is needed on the team. Johnson spoke out this past week about his future and how it may not be in Tennessee so that only adds fuel to what may be a fire. Johnson is the only player that has been a true positive this year even if he lacks the consistency he had in previous seasons.

Johnson has been less effective for the last three games but peeled off a 94-yard touchdown against the Jets to total 122 yards on 21 carries on the game. As has always been the case, his yardage varies greatly since he either breaks a long run or not.

Craig Stevens replaced Jared Cook but that only meant he had two catches instead of just one.

Jake Locker has only been able to play in nine games this year and scored just nine times with most games producing moderate yardage. He hasn't sparked any offensive revival in Tennessee here in his first season as a starter but the learning curve is not done yet and he remains in the plans.

Kendall Wright will miss the last two games with a broken rib and that should turn into more work for Nate Washington who has lost all fantasy value this year. Washington has not scored since week nine and rarely has more than 50 or 60 yards in any game. Kenny Britt finally had one big game with 143 yards on the visiting Colts in week 14 but then was right back to just one catch last week. This remains a below average unit that still has no reliable fantasy value from any of the receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 28 20 13 20 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 14 17 20 3 13 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jake Locker, TEN CLE 20000023011 ***
After showing so much promise in Week 1, Locker has been dreadful. Charlie Whitehurst was no better last week and the expectation is that Locker will return to action in a matchup that doesn't look like it will yield anything special fantasy-wise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN CLE 7012100000 ***
Who had Week 4 in the "Ken Whisenhunt finally figures it out" pool? Sankey will see an increased share of the workload after racking up 96 yards and a touchdown on his last 16 carries. Expect him to pay immediate dividends against a Browns' defense that has allowed at least 177 combo yards to opposing running backs in every game this season, as well as at least one RB TD each game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shonn Greene, TEN CLE 300000000 **
There's probably still a role for Greene, especially against a Browns defense that is serving up copious yardage. But it will be a junior role to Bishop Sankey, with fantasy relevancy far less likely.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN CLE 005500000 ***
Wright has the only WR TD the Titans have scored this season, and while he's still the high target guy this passing offense doesn't produce enough stats to make even the top dog fantasy relevant.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Hunter, TEN CLE 003400000 ***
Impossible to trust the wildly inconsistent Hunter with a fantasy gig. Not that he's not capable, just that he's high risk and the reward hasn't presented itself often enough to offset that risk.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN CLE 005601000 ****
Walker is the man in Tennessee's passing offense; he's found the end zone three out of four weeks and topped 50 yards the week he didn't score. Tough to judge the Browns on three games that included getting toasted by Jimmy Graham and injuring Dennis Pitta, but Walker's consistent productivity makes him a must-start regardless of matchup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN CLE 2222 ***
The Browns have been a favorable matchup for opposing kickers; whether that extends to Succop, who has 10 points total over the past three games, is another matter entirely.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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