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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: TEN 13, GB 24 (Line: GB by 13)

Players Upated: Alex Green

Players to Watch: Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson

The 4-9 Titans are on a short week after playing Monday night and are just 2-5 away from home. The 10-4 Packers clinched the NFC North with their win over the Bears and are only a half game behind the 49ers for a #2 seed and a first round bye. This is the final regular season game at home. This is also going to be a cold game at around 20 degrees forecasted.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET 27-20
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI 21-13
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 250,2
WR Randall Cobb 6-100,1
WR Jordy Nelson
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: As it stands, the Packers won't know if they have a shot at the #2 seed until the 49ers and Seahawks play late on Sunday night. The 49ers wind up their season at home against the Cardinals which should be a lock for a win so realistically - the Packers may not have anything to win in the final week in Minnesota since they'll get the #3 seed regardless. This week should be the easy remaining game for the Packers and then they can end up chasing Adrian Peterson all over the field in the season finale.

Aaron Rodgers was on a three game slide with only one score in each and only moderate yardage. He posted 291 yards and three scores on the Bears last week to reverse the trend and faces another soft secondary again this week. Rodgers tweaked his ankle last week but claims it was not an issue. The biggest fear this week is that Rodgers ends up handing off a lot as he did in the three marginal fantasy games recently. The Titans are weak against the run and it would help keep Rodgers healthy.

Unfortunately, now the Packers are opting for using three running backs in rotation so that even though they combined for 28 carries, none of them had meaningful fantasy value. Alex Green remains the best bet but even he only ended with 35 yards on 13 carries while Ryan Grant was allowed eight runs for 32 yards. Throw in DuJuan Harris and even fullback John Kuhn and there is no reason to guess which one might do the most. They have all combined for only three touchdowns on the season anyway and none have gained more than 74 rush yards in any game.

Jordy Nelson remains out and there has been little in the way of any receiver having a big game aside from James Jones three scores last week on just five catches for 60 yards but he only managed two touchdowns over the previous six weeks and usually ends up with fewer than 50 yards per game. Randall Cobb topped 100 yards in the last two games but has not scored since back in week 11.

Notable this week is that Clay Matthews returned last week and was back to form. He'll be a major problem for the Titans and that could depress the game score. That could end up with more rushing and less need for Rodgers to air it out. The points are there for the taking but three of the last four games, Rodgers did not bother scoring any more than needed to win and relied on the run more.

I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 31 1 17 27 19
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 21 29 12 27 28 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB DET 20000027030 ***
Rodgers averaged 303 yards, 2 TDs and 0.5 INTs vs. DET in 2015 without a full complement of weapons. In 2014, he throw a total of 388 yards and 3 TDs in two games, without a pick. He's much better in real life than on the fake gridiron against this defense. Detroit's defense has allowed six TDs to just one interception and may roll over again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Eddie Lacy, GB DET 600000000 ***
Nearly half the league is stronger than Detroit against running backs, and the Lions are one of three teams to prevent both a rushing and receiving touchdown to the position. Much of that is because Detroit give up so many plays to tight ends around the goal. Game flow and field position are extremely important to Lacy's odds of finding the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB DET 006601000 ***
Detroit gave up a 6-64-1 line to Donte Moncrief and a 6-79-0 line to T.Y. Hilton in the opener. Tennessee didn't offer a matchup like Nelson. You always start your studs, and it doesn't hurt that he is in game shape right out of the gates.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB DET 003501000 ***
Adams sees a lot of his looks when defenses blanket Jordy Nelson and/or Randall Cobb. He remains on the field, though, since Green Bay uses three-wide sets regularly. The Lions have been respectable by holding receivers to the 12th fewest points through two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB DET 006800000 ***
Cobb's play against Detroit has been a mixed bag. He scored twice in Week 17 of the 2014 season but failed to score in his next two meetings with them. His production this year doesn't compel fantasy owners to take a chance, so it is understandable if sit him against the 12th strongest defense (PPR) of wideouts if you have a safer choice. PPR gamers pretty much have to keep him in their lineups, though, and take the mediocre with the good.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jared Cook, GB DET 005501000 ****
No team has been victimized more than Detroit by tight ends. This unit has ceded four touchdowns on just 15 catches. Cook makes for a sneaky play in daily and a borderline starter in traditional games.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB DET 1133 ***
Detroit is giving up only 6.5 fantasy points per outing. Crosby is playable but likely won't excel.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB DeMarco Murray 100,1 4-30
WR Andre Johnson 6-80,1
WR Rishard Matthews 4-60
TE Anthony Fasano 4-40,1
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans come off their Monday night win and have a great shot at one more win in the season finale against the visiting Jaguars. The season is winding down with better defense than how it began but that's likely a function too of an offense that has been challenged to score more than 20 points in a game for the entire year.

Chris Johnson will get $9 million guaranteed next year if he remains on the roster after February so the Titans are deciding if he is worth all that cash with so much else that is needed on the team. Johnson spoke out this past week about his future and how it may not be in Tennessee so that only adds fuel to what may be a fire. Johnson is the only player that has been a true positive this year even if he lacks the consistency he had in previous seasons.

Johnson has been less effective for the last three games but peeled off a 94-yard touchdown against the Jets to total 122 yards on 21 carries on the game. As has always been the case, his yardage varies greatly since he either breaks a long run or not.

Craig Stevens replaced Jared Cook but that only meant he had two catches instead of just one.

Jake Locker has only been able to play in nine games this year and scored just nine times with most games producing moderate yardage. He hasn't sparked any offensive revival in Tennessee here in his first season as a starter but the learning curve is not done yet and he remains in the plans.

Kendall Wright will miss the last two games with a broken rib and that should turn into more work for Nate Washington who has lost all fantasy value this year. Washington has not scored since week nine and rarely has more than 50 or 60 yards in any game. Kenny Britt finally had one big game with 143 yards on the visiting Colts in week 14 but then was right back to just one catch last week. This remains a below average unit that still has no reliable fantasy value from any of the receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 28 20 13 20 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 14 17 20 3 13 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN OAK 0000031021 ***
There isn't much Oakland's defense is doing well at this point, including stopping quarterbacks. Mariota is a solid choice to top 300 yards and find the end zone multiple times. Use him as a cost-saver in DFS.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN OAK 7016500000 ***
Murray is a fine fantasy play this week. The Raiders have given up two total touchdowns (rush, receive) and 140 offensive yards per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN OAK 0071001000 ***
The best receiving matchup for receivers should lead to a career day for the rookie. Oakland has surrendered 35 receptions for 564 yards and five TDs to wideouts in two games -- nearly 23 more PPR points than the next closest defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Johnson, TEN OAK 003301000 **
Johnson doesn't belong on fantasy rosters. Or in DFS lineups, for that matter, even against a miserable pass defense. TE Delanie Walker (hamstring) is unlikely to go, so there's that, if you're willing to throw caution to the wind.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN OAK 004500000 ***
The matchup is ripe for the pickin', so take a shot in DFS. Matthews could slide into flex spots in traditional formats against the easiest WR fantasy defense to exploit in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN OAK 003400000 *
Cleveland is the only team that has given up more yards to tight ends than Oakland. The Raiders rank 26th at stopping the position. Walker is an offensive focal point and must be started in traditional games.

Update: Ruh-roh ... Walker is questionable and did not practice Friday. Not good. Check the inactives, but the late-blooming vet has a hammy injury and should be avoided for safety purposes.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN OAK 1133 ***
The Titans shouldn't have problems scoring touchdowns against Oakland, and TDs don't move the fantasy kicker needle.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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