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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: TEN 13, GB 24 (Line: GB by 13)

Players Upated: Alex Green

Players to Watch: Aaron Rodgers, Chris Johnson

The 4-9 Titans are on a short week after playing Monday night and are just 2-5 away from home. The 10-4 Packers clinched the NFC North with their win over the Bears and are only a half game behind the 49ers for a #2 seed and a first round bye. This is the final regular season game at home. This is also going to be a cold game at around 20 degrees forecasted.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET 27-20
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI 21-13
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN -----
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 250,2
WR Randall Cobb 6-100,1
WR Jordy Nelson
TE Lance Kendricks 3-30
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: As it stands, the Packers won't know if they have a shot at the #2 seed until the 49ers and Seahawks play late on Sunday night. The 49ers wind up their season at home against the Cardinals which should be a lock for a win so realistically - the Packers may not have anything to win in the final week in Minnesota since they'll get the #3 seed regardless. This week should be the easy remaining game for the Packers and then they can end up chasing Adrian Peterson all over the field in the season finale.

Aaron Rodgers was on a three game slide with only one score in each and only moderate yardage. He posted 291 yards and three scores on the Bears last week to reverse the trend and faces another soft secondary again this week. Rodgers tweaked his ankle last week but claims it was not an issue. The biggest fear this week is that Rodgers ends up handing off a lot as he did in the three marginal fantasy games recently. The Titans are weak against the run and it would help keep Rodgers healthy.

Unfortunately, now the Packers are opting for using three running backs in rotation so that even though they combined for 28 carries, none of them had meaningful fantasy value. Alex Green remains the best bet but even he only ended with 35 yards on 13 carries while Ryan Grant was allowed eight runs for 32 yards. Throw in DuJuan Harris and even fullback John Kuhn and there is no reason to guess which one might do the most. They have all combined for only three touchdowns on the season anyway and none have gained more than 74 rush yards in any game.

Jordy Nelson remains out and there has been little in the way of any receiver having a big game aside from James Jones three scores last week on just five catches for 60 yards but he only managed two touchdowns over the previous six weeks and usually ends up with fewer than 50 yards per game. Randall Cobb topped 100 yards in the last two games but has not scored since back in week 11.

Notable this week is that Clay Matthews returned last week and was back to form. He'll be a major problem for the Titans and that could depress the game score. That could end up with more rushing and less need for Rodgers to air it out. The points are there for the taking but three of the last four games, Rodgers did not bother scoring any more than needed to win and relied on the run more.

I like a defensive score in this game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 31 1 17 27 19
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 21 29 12 27 28 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brett Hundley, GB @CLE 20100020011 ***
Hundley belongs nowhere near a fantasy roster. We've seen enough to know that with only one good game this season, he is basically all downside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Williams, GB @CLE 6004300000 ***
There will be a backfield split that is tough to forecast, but Williams owners can expect fewer carriers from the Week 13 bell cow. Aaron Jones will see touches. The Browns have yielded 111 rushing yards (9th), 38.3 receiving gains (16th) and a touchdown every 40.7 offensive touches (19th.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Aaron Jones, GB @CLE 2003200000 ***
Jones was the Week 13 overtime hero after Jamaal Williams did all of the dirty work. The Packers head to Cleveland for a matchup with the an exploitable matchup. The Browns have permitted only two rushing touchdowns over the last 104 carries, which ranks on the bottom half of the league. The upside is this defense has granted the ninth-most rushing yards and the 11th-highest average of standard fantasy points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @CLE 005701000 ***
Adams has proven to be the only viable fantasy weapon with Brett Hundley under center. Since Week 8, Cleveland has been rather sound vs. wideouts. The position has averaged only 11.8 receptions (19th) for 151 yards (17th) and a touchdown every 15.7 snags (20th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB @CLE 003400000 ***
Wideouts have struggled to post big numbers against Cleveland in the past five weeks (four games). They have averaged the 19th-most receptions for the 17th-most yards and a touchdown at the 20th-best frequency.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @CLE 004300000 ***
Nelson has offered nothing since Brett Hundley has taken over, and there is zero reason to believe he will get on track this week. The Browns have been on the tougher half of the league against the position since Week 8.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @CLE 2122 ***
No team has yielded more field goal tries a game than the three by Cleveland. Tack on 2.5 extra points a contest to get the No. 3 matchup for exploitation.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB -----
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Brandon Weeden 230,1
RB DeMarco Murray 100,1 4-30
WR Eric Decker 4-50
WR Rishard Matthews 4-60
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans come off their Monday night win and have a great shot at one more win in the season finale against the visiting Jaguars. The season is winding down with better defense than how it began but that's likely a function too of an offense that has been challenged to score more than 20 points in a game for the entire year.

Chris Johnson will get $9 million guaranteed next year if he remains on the roster after February so the Titans are deciding if he is worth all that cash with so much else that is needed on the team. Johnson spoke out this past week about his future and how it may not be in Tennessee so that only adds fuel to what may be a fire. Johnson is the only player that has been a true positive this year even if he lacks the consistency he had in previous seasons.

Johnson has been less effective for the last three games but peeled off a 94-yard touchdown against the Jets to total 122 yards on 21 carries on the game. As has always been the case, his yardage varies greatly since he either breaks a long run or not.

Craig Stevens replaced Jared Cook but that only meant he had two catches instead of just one.

Jake Locker has only been able to play in nine games this year and scored just nine times with most games producing moderate yardage. He hasn't sparked any offensive revival in Tennessee here in his first season as a starter but the learning curve is not done yet and he remains in the plans.

Kendall Wright will miss the last two games with a broken rib and that should turn into more work for Nate Washington who has lost all fantasy value this year. Washington has not scored since week nine and rarely has more than 50 or 60 yards in any game. Kenny Britt finally had one big game with 143 yards on the visiting Colts in week 14 but then was right back to just one catch last week. This remains a below average unit that still has no reliable fantasy value from any of the receivers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 28 20 13 20 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 14 17 20 3 13 6

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN @ARI 20000023011 ***
This matchup works well with Mariota's profile. The Cardinals are one of three teams to have allowed quarterbacks to rush for three touchdowns in the last five weeks. The matchup is otherwise poor, with the position averaging 228.4 yards and a TD every 18.4 completions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN @ARI 6013200000 ***
Murray has been on the downswing in recent weeks, and it's easy to look at the raw stats to say Derrick Henry is poised to overtake him. Don't count on it just yet. This matchup, in particular, drastically favors the more versatile Murray. Arizona has provided almost nothing in the way of RB success on the ground in the past five games, whereas the position has racked up the most receptions and second-highest receiving average per game. The projections don't agree, which means there is even more upside to what was predicted.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN @ARI 400000000 ***
A breakaway touchdown run put Henry in good graces with fantasy owners who started him. He scampered 75 yards, leaving himself with a 3.4 yards-per-carry average over his other 10 carries. Arizona has given up only two ground scores over the past 99 carries, holding backs to a paltry 66.4 rushing yards since Week 8.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN @ARI 004600000 *
Matthews believes he can return. His status will be updated later in the week. Check back for more information.

Update: Matthews was removed from the injury report and is a fringe lineup play against a rather strong Cardinals defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, TEN @ARI 003300000 ***
It has been more than a month since Decker has scored his only touchdown of the year, and he has one game with more than four catches and at least 50 yards. Look elsewhere, especially with a stingy matchup like Arizona offers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Corey Davis, TEN @ARI 002200000 *
Arizona has really turned it around against receivers over the past five weeks. The Titans face a defense that has given up 9.6 receptions (3rd-fewest), 130 yards (5th-fewest) and a TD every 24 catches (6th-fewest) on a weekly rate.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @ARI 006601000 ***
Not a good matchup for catches (20th) or yardage (28th), the Cardinals have granted a tight end to score every seven grabs. This amounts to three over the last five games. It doesn't look impressive, but considering how Arizona limits catches in general, gamers could do worse.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @ARI 1122 ***
Succop faces a mediocre matchup against a Cardinals team that has allowed kickers to average 7.8 fantasy points since Week 8. The position has gone 9-for-9 on three-pointers and 12-for-13 on TD-cappers in that time.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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