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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Vernon Davis 1-20

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @NO 10100026011 ***
No team has granted fewer yards per game than New Orleans' 166.6. The defense has held quarterbacks to five TD passes in as many games, or one every 16.4 completions. Six passes have been picked on 165 attempts, and one of the 16 rushes went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @NO 3006501000 ***
Thompson has quieted in the last two weeks. A sign of things to come? Maybe. This week, the Saints provide a low-end matchup -- the fifth-hardest in PPR, in fact. Since Week 5, none of the 26 receptions found the end zone, which is discouraging.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Samaje Perine, WAS @NO 300000000 ***
Perine has not shown a great deal of competence in his limited NFL action. This is the seventh-worst matchup in fantasy for non-PPR backs. Two of the past 96 carries went into the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @NO 004500000 ***
Crowder has flashed a little in the last few weeks. The Saints, though, have done everything in their power to keep wideouts down. A touchdown has been scored once every 20 snags, which has amounted to only a pair of WR touchdowns in the last five games. This also is a terrible matchup for receptions (3rd worst) and yardage (4th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Doctson, WAS @NO 003400000 ***
The matchup is anything but ideal. New Orleans has given up only eight catches a game to wideouts in the last five contests. Since Week 5, the position has caught only two TDs. The Saints are fantasy's third-strongest defense in either scoring system.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ryan Grant, WAS @NO 003300000 ***
Grant is good for a handful of looks each week. He's playing a healthy amount of snaps and has Kirk Cousins' eye. The matchup is awful, however, which should eliminate him from lineup consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @NO 006700000 ***
The Saints have given up the third-fewest catches for the second-fewest yards on a weekly clip, and yet they have managed to permit a TD every 5.3 receptions (2nd). Davis will have a bigger role if Jordan Reed once again is out of action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @NO 00000000 *
Reed's status will be determined later in the week. The matchup is not favorable, so temper expectations if he returns.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Rose, WAS @NO 2211 ***
Only six of the 10 field goal attempts against the Saints have been true, and all nine kicks were accurate. The volume is too low to consider this anything better than a midrange matchup in the most optimistic sense.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 250,1
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-40,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-40
WR Torrey Smith 4-60
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @DAL 0000024030 ***
Well-rested, Wentz and Co. take on a Dallas defense that is likely to be without its top playmaker. Fantasy-wise, this group has given up only 19.9 points per game, which is the 19th-highest average. Wentz faces a unit allowing a TD every 19 completions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI @DAL 8011100000 *
This is a rather negative matchup. The Cowboys have given up only 66.8 rushing yards (28th) and a touchdown every 36 rushing attempts (12th), or two scores in the past four games. The 'Boys could give up more production with LB Sean Lee likely out of action.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Corey Clement, PHI @DAL 2001200000 *
Clement was a fantasy darling a few weeks ago but is a risky proposition for Week 11 lineups. Dallas has yielded just two TDs over the past 94 offensive touches (19th).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI @DAL 300000000 *
The matchup isn't worthy of tossing Blount into a fantasy lineup without being in a dire situation. With Jay Ajayi gaining extra time via the bye week to study up, expect a lessened role for Blount.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @DAL 004601000 ***
We've seen countless times this year how Agholor's fantasy worth is directly tied to finding the end zone. Dallas has given up only three WR TDs in the past four games, so there is a hint of hope here. This is a slightly optimistic projection, but it's absolutely worth gambling on in fantasy lineups.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI @DAL 002401000 ***
Receivers have averaged 13 receptions (7th) for 157.3 yards (13th) and a TD every 17.3 grabs (23rd), which shows Dallas has done a sound job of the proverbial bending without breaking. This project really could go either way, but expecting a brilliant day from Jeffery would be asking a bit much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @DAL 005701000 ***
Ertz should be healthy after the bye week and ready to resume his dominant season. The Cowboys have given up two tight end scores in the past four games, and this is an overall neutral matchup. In Week 17 last year, he exploded for 13 catches, 139 yards and two TDs vs. a largely resting Dallas team.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI @DAL 1144 ***
The matchup is solidly negative based on fantasy points allowed, with one missed field goal and an inaccurate point-after try. The potential for more is definitely real.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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