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David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Vernon Davis 1-20

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS DEN 10000020020 ***
The good: Denver has given up a TD pass every 10.9 completions (6th-highest frequency). The rest: This is the worst defense for weekly yardage figures, and it's the third-hardest matchup for generating fantasy points (16.1/game).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kapri Bibbs, WAS DEN 4004400000 **
Bibbs is the next, next, next, next man up for Washington. He will see the receiving work and handle a few carries to spell Samaje Perine. Denver is no joke for running backs of any flavor. Look elsewhere.

Update: Perine (groin) did not practice all week and is unlikely to play. Bibbs should see the majority of work behind a banged up offensive line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Samaje Perine, WAS DEN 4001100000 *
Just two of the last 121 carries against the Broncos have found the end zone (25th) in the hands of a running back, and they're a matching 25th in the weekly rushing yardage column against this group.

Update: Perine (groin) did not practice all week and is unlikely to play. Kapri Bibbs should see the majority of work behind a banged up offensive line.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Josh Doctson, WAS DEN 003401000 ***
Denver has permitted four receiving TDs over the last 38 receptions by the position, which shakes out to be the the seventh-highest rate in football since Week 10. The rest of the matchup metrics are dismal.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS DEN 004400000 ***
This is a terrible opponent for PPR types -- Denver has given up just 7.6 receptions (31st) for 106.2 yards (32nd) since Week 10. The upside is one in 9.5 snares found the end zone. Crowder was limited in Wednesday's practice with a hamstring strain.

Update: Crowder has been limited all week and is a true gametime call. Prepare for his absence.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ryan Grant, WAS DEN 002300000 ***
Grant doesn't belong in a lineup against the third-toughest defense of his position. There are better choices for gambling gamers.

Update: Grant will see more looks if Jamison Crowder (questionable) cannot play, yet no gamer should feel inclined to take a chance on him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS DEN 002201000 *
Denver generally does well at limiting tight ends between the 20s but has struggled most of the year at keeping them out of the end zone. One in nine catches over the last five weeks has resulted in a TD.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS DEN 2222 ***
Hopkins returns from IR to face Denver's stifling defense of his position. Kickers have attempted the fewest per-game field goals, resulting in the second-lowest weekly possibility for fantasy points.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 250,1
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-40,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-40
WR Torrey Smith 4-60
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Nick Foles, PHI OAK 0000024020 ***
Foles pitched four TD passes in last week's showdown with the Giants and has a decent enough matchup this week. Oakland is 16th in fantasy points allowed (20.2) since Week 10, permitting just six TDs in the last five games. This is the 17th-best defense for limiting passing yards.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jay Ajayi, PHI OAK 8011100000 ***
Running backs have averaged 77.2 rushing yards (24th), 5.0 receptions (19th), 28.2 receiving yards (19th), and a touchdown every 26.3 attempts (10th) vs. the Raiders in the past five weeks. Overall, this is a bottom-nine matchup in both scoring formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI OAK 200000000 ***
Oakland offers a promising matchup for touchdowns, so maybe gamers get lucky. Avoid Blount and his limited role where possible.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI OAK 004501000 ***
Jeffery has scored four times in his last five outings, which matches what the Raiders have permitted during that stretch. The Oakland defense has given up 10.4 receptions (24th) for 132.4 yards (26th) since Week 10.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI OAK 006700000 ***
For all of Oakland's ails in 2017, this group has been solid enough against wideouts. In recent weeks, the defense even learned how to intercept passes. The last receiver to score was in Week 12, and that includes holding Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Sterling Shepard, Tyreek Hill and Dez Bryant out of the end zone.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Torrey Smith, PHI OAK 001200000 ***
Smith has not been enough of a factor to consider him as anything more than the wildest of flex gambles for deeeeeeep leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI OAK 004601000 ***
Impressively, despite Oakland being the easiest team for giving up receptions to the position, it is also the strongest at limiting touchdowns to the position. Since Week 10, only one of the 31 catches have scored, but the 81.2 yards per contest against ranks first.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jake Elliott, PHI OAK 1144 ***
In the past five games, kickers have made all 22 attempts -- an even split per FGAs and XPAs -- against Oakland. This is the No. 6 matchup to exploit for Week 16.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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