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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
TE Vernon Davis 1-20

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS NYG 0000030021 ***
In the past five games, the Giants have allowed a five TDs while picking off as many passes. This rates as one of the 10 worst matchups for Week 17. Cousins has the slight benefit of New York probably resting some of its key players since there is nothing on the line. He passed for 296 yards and a pair of scores in Week 3.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Kelley, WAS NYG 6012100000 **
"Fat Rob" may have slim pickings against the Giants this week if they don't rest starters. New York has given up only one TD in the last 144 touches to RBs. With the Giants having nothing to play for, it isn't a bad time to toss Kelley out there.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS NYG 2003200000 ***
Thompson isn't a reliable play and faces a tough matchup. The Giants may rest starters, but this group has allowed one offensive score to RBs in the last 144 touches faced.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brian Quick, WAS NYG 005501000 **
Quick has fringe appeal for deep leagues. He isn't a volume receiver, and the quarterback play is sketchy. At least the matchup is worthwhile.

Update: Kenny Britt is doubtful, which makes Quick a playable option against the best matchup of the week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr., WAS NYG 005500000 **
Pryor faces a tough matchup and perhaps a tougher battle with his own team's quarterback woes. He's merely a flex against Pittsburgh this week. He caught a 5-97-0 line in Week 11 versus the Steelers, so there is a little hope.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS NYG 004500000 **
Crowder has fallen on hard times lately, and trusting him for a huge game is a bit much. The Giants should rest some starters, so there is some hope. Otherwise, this is a tough opponent for his position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS NYG 003300000 ***
Davis will split work with the ailing Jordan Reed in what isn't the best of matchups. Just one of the last 27 catches by his position has scored on the Giants. Look for help elsewhere.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS NYG 001200000 *
Reed will gut it out once more with a playoff berth on the line. There isn't much reason to risk it. The Giants have allowed only one of the last 27 catches by tight ends to cross the stripe.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS NYG 2233 ***
This is the second lowest opportunity rating for kicking chances in Week 17. New York has provided just three opportunities for both XPA and FGA combined in the last five weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 250,1
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-40,1
WR Alshon Jeffery 3-40
WR Torrey Smith 4-60
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI DAL 10100023011 ***
Dallas is a fringe matchup for quarterbacks, but the Cowboys have nothing on the line this week, so look for some key personnel to get a break. The rookie authored a 13.8-point fantasy day in Week 8 against Dallas.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt McGloin, PHI DAL 0000015002 *
The tall task of replacing Derek Carr starts off with the worst possible matchup in fantasy this week. While McGloin may prove in time to be able to win games, he should not be relied on in fantasy this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI DAL 7015400000 ***
Sproles should lead in touches against a Dallas team giving up 4.8 receptions a game to the position since Week 11. Otherwise, it's not a great matchup, with Dallas allowing only three RB scores in the last five games. Perhaps that improves if the Cowboys rest key players.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeGarrette Blount, PHI DAL 701000000 ***
Miami has yielded four RB touchdowns in the last five weeks, but two have come through the air. The bruising back posted a 29-123-1 line in Week 2 against the Dolphins.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Byron Marshall, PHI DAL 3001100000 ***
The undrafted rookie from Oregon will play second fiddle to Darren Sproles in what has been a low-end matchup for RBs over the last five games. The Cowboys have given up the fourth fewest points per game to the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI DAL 004401000 *
Matthews landed 11 of 14 targets for 65 yards and a TD in Week 8's matchup with the Cowboys. Dallas has nothing at stake and may opt for resting key players. Matthews is a strong choice in most any format.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Paul Turner, PHI DAL 003401000 *
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, PHI DAL 004500000 ***
Jeffery had a respectable day in Week 8 against this defense (4-63-1). The Vikings have regressed since then, but Matt Barkley has been a turnover machine in his last two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI DAL 004400000 ***
Stats-wise, this is the best matchup in Week 17 when using data since Week 11. The Cowboys have given up 20.6 PPR points to the position, on average. Ertz was quiet in the last one, but he has been more involved lately. Consider this a conservative projection.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, PHI DAL 1133 ***
Dallas is the 13th best FGA matchup, but only five teams have been harsher for extra point kicks.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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