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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Pierre Garcon 6-80,1
TE Vernon Davis 1-20
TE Logan Paulsen 2-20

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @DAL 0000018000 *
Cousins finally shook off the road woes with last week's 365 and 4 in Philly, but the Cowboys haven't allowed a 300-yard passer since Drew Brees in Week 4--or a 300-yard passer in Dallas since Drew Brees in Week 4 of last year. Dallas has also held four of five and eight of 10 quarterbacks to one or zero TDs, so you may not like this week's Cousins nearly as much as previous versions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @DAL 004500000 ***
Whatever fantasy relevance Crowder had departed when DeSean Jackson returned to the lineup, and the Cowboys don't give up nearly enough to wideouts to dig this deep into the depth chart.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @DAL 003400000 ***
Since DJax arrived in DC Garcon has been an afterthought against the Cowboys--three games of 54 yards or less with no TDs, a far cry from his 11-144-1 in his last DJax-free meeting with the Cowboys. He's still a wingman, and wingmen have been largely quiet against Dallas.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @DAL 002300000 *
In three games as a Redskin Jackson has produced lines of 6-80-1, 2-86-1 and 6-136 against the Cowboys. Don't expect big numbers against a Dalls defense that hasn't allowed a 100-yard receiver since Week 10 and just three WR TDs in that six-game span, but WR1s have been checking in consistently in the 70-80 yard range so there's a baseline with upside for DJax.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS @DAL 002300000 *
Reed has been unstoppable of late, with 25 catches 333 yards and five TDs in the past three games. Prior to that run Dallas held him to 3-33, easily his worst fantasy game of the season. Can the Cowboys do it again? Only one TE has topped 50 yards against them in the past eight games and only two tight ends have scored in that span, so temper expectations accordingly.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS @DAL 2111 ***
Nothing to play for,
so settling for field goals
not such a bad thing

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 270,2
RB DeMarco Murray 100,1 4-30
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-40,1
WR Chris Givens 3-50,1
WR T.J. Graham 4-60
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Sam Bradford, PHI @NYG 0000025012 ***
Bradford managed 280 and a touch in the earlier meeting with the Giants, and who knows how things will work sans Chip Kelly this week. Bradford's upside isn't nearly sexy enough to suggest wading through the confusion to start him this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, PHI @NYG 5013200000 *
The good news is that Chip Kelly's departure likely lets Murray out of the doghouse in Philly. The bad news is that no one knows what the running back rotation will look like under an interim play-caller. Murray was solid (22-109-1) in the earlier meeting and scored last week, but he hasn't seen 15 touches in a game since Week 11 and is simply too volatile to trust fully even in a favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ryan Mathews, PHI @NYG 500000000 **
Chip Kelly's departure throws the Philly backfield into further disarray. The reward is too small to offset the risk with so many backs getting touches, so best avoid the situation--or at least Matthews, coming off a six-touch game--entirely.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI @NYG 005801000 ***
Matthews has become the closest thing the Eagles have to a WR1, with back-to-back 100-yard games with a touchdown. He played third fiddle with 59 yards in the earlier meeting with the Giants, but he's a much better bet to reprise or improve upon those numbers than either Riley Cooler (3-76-1 against the Giants) or Miles Austin (3-60 in that same game).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rueben Randle, PHI @NYG 005601000 ***
It's been a month since the Eagles allowed multiple wideouts to score in the same game, but Randle has TDs in three straight and is playing a solid wingman to Odell Beckham Jr so don't discount him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nelson Agholor, PHI @NYG 004500000 ***
There's some upside to the emerging Agholor against a Giants secondary that's given up a touchdown or at least 99 yards to multiple receivers in three of the past four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Givens, PHI @NYG 002300000 ***
Givens is a home run guy, but this week he's in a pitcher's park--the Bengals have allowed only one WR TD in their past four at home--and having Ryan Mallet at quarterback is the equivalent of using a wiffle bat.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @NYG 006800000 ***
Just as Ertz was living up to lofty preseason expectations with 30 targets, 21 catches, 200 yards and a touchdown the past two games... Chip Kelly gets canned. There's still plenty of fantasy upside against a Giants defense that has given up TE TDs in two straight and six 50-plus yard efforts in the past nine games--but also much more uncertainty.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, PHI @NYG 1122 ***
Multiple field goals
in just one of last seven--
plus no Chip Kelly

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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