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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
WR Pierre Garcon 6-80,1
TE Vernon Davis 1-20

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kirk Cousins, WAS @ARI 0000027021 ***
Arizona remains tough versus quarterbacks, giving up the eighth fewest points per game (19.1) since Week 7. Only one team has allowed fewer yards per game, and the Cards rank as the fourth best D in touchdown efficiency. That said, Cousins is still very playable for gamers.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Robert Kelley, WAS @ARI 4002101000 **
Dallas slowed the Kelley hype train last week, but the Cardinals present a decent shot at getting back on track. Running backs have scored six times in the last 98 carries and 102 offensive touches, which ranks second and third, respectively. Arizona ranks as the toughest against allowing combined yardage per game over the last five weeks, though.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Thompson, WAS @ARI 2003200000 ***
This is the stoutest defense of pass-receiving backs in the past five weeks: Only eight catches for 59 yards have been permitted.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jamison Crowder, WAS @ARI 007901000 ***
Crowder has authored six straight games of double-digit PPR points, including scoring TDs in four of those contests. Arizona is must stronger on the outside than in the slot, and receivers like Crowder have averaged the fifth most catches and seventh most yards per game over the last five weeks when facing the Cardinals.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @ARI 006500000 ***
Garcon has quietly put together a fine fantasy season. The veteran faces a Cardinals defense that has allowed the fifth most receptions and seventh most yards per game to receivers since Week 7 -- right up his alley for a WR3 PPR showing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @ARI 003400000 ***
D-Jax is an all-or-nothing play most of the time. Arizona has given up a TD ever 14.5 receptions, which is the ninth least efficient rate for receivers. Wideouts have scored the 11th fewest points per play against the Cards since Week 7.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Vernon Davis, WAS @ARI 006500000 ***
Davis comes and goes which makes his utility suspect in any fantasy format. The Cardinals have destroyed tight ends over the last five weeks. Arizona is the toughest matchup for catches, yards, touchdown ease, and fantasy points against ... yikes.

Update: Jordan Reed will not play this week, which normally would be a great boost for Davis, but this matchup is stifling.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dustin Hopkins, WAS @ARI 2233 ***
Arizona has granted twice as many extra point attempts as the seven field goal tries afforded to the position over the past five weeks.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-40,1
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Carson Wentz, PHI @CIN 10000025012 ***
Quarterbacks have overachieved slightly against the Bengals. The matchup rating is the sixth worst, yet Cincy has allowed the 19th most points per game to the position. Passers have averaged 274.5 aerial yards over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI @CIN 2006501000 ***
The Bengals rate as the eighth worst matchup based on opportunity but have given up the 11th most fantasy points in PPR. None of the 23 receptions allowed have scored, but backs have averaged 149 offensive yards in the last four games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Wendell Smallwood, PHI @CIN 4002300000 ***
Smallwood's role increases if Ryan Mathews cannot go. The Bengals have surrendered a ton of yardage (seventh most per game) but practically nothing else of note to the position over the last five weeks.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Dorial Green-Beckham, PHI @CIN 006801000 ***
Green-Beckham would have a large role if Jordan Matthews doesn't suit up or is limited. The big-bodied receiver should be viewed as a highly risky flex play for brazen gamblers. Cincinnati falls in the soundly neutral matchup window.

Update: Matthews is questionable but is unlikely to dress.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Bryce Treggs, PHI @CIN 002300000 ***
Largely untested, Treggs should see more work if Jordan Matthews doesn't play. Avoid him in all fantasy formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @CIN 005500000 ***
Cincinnati has given up the most receptions and third highest yardage figure to tight ends on a per-game rate since Week 7. Ertz is a viable play in PPR formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Caleb Sturgis, PHI @CIN 2211 ***
Powered by surrendering the highest number of field goal attempts per game (2.75), Cincinnati rates as the fourth most generous matchup for kickers in Week 13.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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