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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 20 240,2
RB Alfred Morris 100,1
RB Evan Royster 5-30
WR Pierre Garcon 6-80,1
WR Leonard Hankerson 3-40,1
WR Josh Morgan 3-40
WR Santana Moss 2-30
TE Logan Paulsen 2-20
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Robert Griffin III, WAS DAL 50000024020 ****
Griffin threw for 304 yards and four TDs in Dallas last time but two of those were bombs that connected. Griffin has been far less productive in almost every other game thanks to the defense and rushing game which both come into play this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS DAL 11011100000 *****
Morris already ran for 113 yards and one score in Dallas and the Cowboys defense continues to be victimized up the middle. He should be a lock for good to great yards and one score.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS DAL 007901000 *****
Garcon has been money every week since he posted 4-86 and a TD in Dallas. He's a lock to be heavily relied on and should see one of the passing scores as well.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Santana Moss, WAS DAL 004401000 ****
Moss has long been a Cowboy killer and posted 4-42 and one touchdown in Dallas this year. He's been well below 60 yards every game for almost the entire season though. His eight touchdowns shows he's a sure threat in the redzone but rarely used otherwise.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Logan Paulsen, WAS DAL 002200000 ***
The Redskins have never used their TE's enough this year to matter. All combined they have two touchdowns and just one for Paulsen.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS DAL 2133 ****
WAS kicker always a marginal start.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 250,1
RB Bryce Brown 40,1 3-20
RB LeSean McCoy 50 2-10
WR Jason Avant 4-50
WR Riley Cooper 3-40
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-70,1
TE Brent Celek 5-50
PK Alex Henery 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Michael Vick, PHI @NYG 30100026012 ***
Nick Foles heads to IR with a broken hand, putting Vick back in the driver's seat. He threw for 241 and 1 in the earlier meeting with the Giants, mixing in 49 rushing yards as well; look for him to build on those numbers in this audition for whatever team he'll be quarterbacking in 2013. And since Vick is most impressive when running the ball, a rushing score wouldn't surprise this week--nor would a bigger yardage total, seeing as similarly mobile RG3 took the Giants for 161 yards in two games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @NYG 9015300000 ***
McCoy's 122 combo yards last week certainly suggest he's back to full go, which is especially good news this week seeing as he rushed for 123 yards in the earlier meeting with the Giants. And considering New York allowed two 100-yard rushers last week alone, McCoy should be in line for another productive outing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @NYG 006701000 ***
DeSean Jackson inflicted the damage in the earlier meeting with the Giants while Maclin was held to one catch for seven yards, but DJax ain't around this time and Maclin has been Philly's go-to guy over the past month. Michael Vick knows where to find him as well, so expect Maclin to lead the charge in Philly's passing game this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jason Avant, PHI @NYG 004600000 ***
Avant has double-digit targets in two of the last three games, stepping up in the absence of DeSean Jackson. Jackson was Philly's go-to guy in the earlier meeting with the Giants, so if they focus on shutting down Jeremy Maclin again it could be a nice opportunity for Maclin. Even if Avant plays wingman, a date with a Giants' secondary that's allowed 20 WR TDs on the year and six wideouts to top 74 yards in the past month should provide reasonably lucrative.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Riley Cooper, PHI @NYG 002200000 ***
Cooper's contributions have been too inconsistent to trust with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @NYG 005500000 ***
Celek had a comfort level with Michael Vick earlier in the season, including 57 yards in the previous meeting with the Giants. Big Blue has allowed 170 yards and a TD to the position over the past three games, so Celek certainly feels in line for another solid yardage game with the possibility of a score.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Alex Henery, PHI @NYG 2133 ***
Henery has multiple field goals in two straight and five of the last six, and he booted a season-high four treys in the previous meeting with the Giants. New York has allowed multiple field goals in three straight, a total of eight in that span. So maybe Henery sends Andy Reid out not with a bang but with a bunch of field goals.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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