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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 20 240,2
RB Alfred Morris 100,1
WR Pierre Garcon 6-80,1
WR Leonard Hankerson 3-40,1
WR Santana Moss 2-30
TE Logan Paulsen 2-20
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Robert Griffin III, WAS DAL 0000026011 ***
RG3 threw four TDs in his first game against the Cowboys, back in November 2012; in 57 attempts he hasn't thrown one since, though he did run for one in the back end of the 2012 series. Colt McCoy couldn't crack the Cowboys for a scoring strike (though he did run one in) in the earlier meeting this season; sensing a theme here? RG3 came close to a rushing score in Week 15, but he'll need one to be a fantasy factor this week--and he hasn't had one since that 2012 Week 17 game against Dallas.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS DAL 701000000 ***
Alf has scored in all five of his career meetings with the Cowboys, including a TD in the earlier meeting which, at 18-73-1, was actually his least productive effort against Dallas. The Cowboys have allowed seven RB TDs in the past five games, so Alf should have ample opportunity to extend his streak here--unless Darrel Young swipes his scores again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS DAL 0051101000 ****
Jackson dropped 136 yards on the Cowboys in the front end of this season series, but he hasn't caught a touchdown pass against them since December of 2010--and he's been in their division for years. Bank on the yardage--DJax just posted 126 on his former mates from Philadelphia last week--but don't count on a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS DAL 003500000 ***
The last time Roberts had fantasy value was right after the Redskins signed him to start opposite Pierre Garcon. Much has happened since then, none of it beneficial to Roberts' fantasy value.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS DAL 004500000 ***
Garcon has shown moderate signs of life, but his biggest outing came when DeSean Jackson was out of the lineup so when the Redskins are at full strength he's clearly a second banana. Look for a first banana before settling this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jordan Reed, WAS DAL 005500000 ***
Reed split 67 yards with Niles Paul in the earlier matchup with Dallas, but he's made the tight end position his own over the past month. That makes him the most likely to take advantage of a Dallas defense that's allowed 10 TE TDs on the year as well as six games of 50-plus yards.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS DAL 2222 ****
Forbath has actually been adequate of late, if you're into something in the eight-point neighborhood. That seems to be the ceiling, however, so you can likely do better elsewhere.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 250,1
RB LeSean McCoy 50 2-10
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-40,1
WR Riley Cooper 3-40
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-70,1
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mark Sanchez, PHI @NYG 0000029021 ***
Nick Foles roasted the Giants for 248 and 2 in a 27-0 win earlier this year; now it's Sanchez's turn, fresh off a 374 and 2 performance in Washington. The Giants just let Shaun Hill take them for 290 and 2, so even a fading Sanchez--playing for a spot next year, be it in Philly or otherwise--should have success against them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @NYG 8011100000 ***
What Chip Kelly needs to do is say, "Merry Christmas, Shady! Here's 20-plus carries!" With that, McCoy should have a field day as all four backs to see that workload against the Giants have topped 120 yards--including McCoy himself in a 22-149 effort earlier this year. Let Chris Polk have all the goal line fun; McCoy will get his via performance points.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @NYG 005601000 ***
The Giants haven't allowed many big games to wide receivers--just enough little ones, especially since losing cornerback Prince Amukamara for the season. Maclin mustered only 16 yards in the earlier meeting but has six touchdowns and five games of 90-plus yards since so mark him down for a fantasy helper here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI @NYG 005700000 ***
Matthews has been silent for the past month; maybe hitting the rookie wall? This matchup isn't particularly favorable, so there's no need to reach for him here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @NYG 006601000 ***
Ertz scored in the earlier meeting with the Giants as Philly tight ends accounted for 118 yards and two TDs. Last week Ertz finally consolidated all those targets; the result was a 15-115 outing against the Redskins. Whether he's sharing or hoarding he's a solid fantasy play this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, PHI @NYG 2233 ***
Parkey had nine in the earlier meeting with the Giants, though hitting the road and the possibility that Matt Barkley takes meaningful snaps make reaching that number again a little more tenuous.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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