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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

Prediction: WAS 27, PHI 20 (Line: WAS by 4.5)

Players to Watch: Robert Griffin III, Pierre Garcon

The is a replay of week 11 when the Skins butchered the Eagles 31-6. The 8-6 Redskins are in a three way tie for the NFC East and need to win out including next week when they host the Cowboys. The Eagles are just trying to ge to the end so the heads may start rolling.

Washington Redskins
Homefield: FedEx Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NO 40-32 10 BYE -----
2 @STL 28-31 11 PHI 31-6
3 CIN 31-38 12 @DAL 38-31
4 @TB 24-22 13 NYG 17-16
5 ATL 17-24 14 BAL 31-28
6 MIN 38-26 15 @CLE 38-21
7 @NYG 23-27 16 @PHI -----
8 @PIT 12-27 17 DAL -----
9 CAR 13-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
WAS @ PHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Robert Griffin III 20 240,2
RB Alfred Morris 100,1
WR Pierre Garcon 6-80,1
WR Leonard Hankerson 3-40,1
WR Santana Moss 2-30
TE Logan Paulsen 2-20
PK Kai Forbath 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Redskins are feeling pretty good about themselves after Kirk Cousins took his first start ever and turned in 329 passing yards and two scores on the Browns in Cleveland. That makes it a five game winning streak that has pulled the Skins into contention not only for a wildcard but for the division title. Chances are that won't be settled until the season finale against the visiting Cowboys but there is no debating that the Skins collectively have really turned up both sides of the ball since taking their week 10 bye.

Robert Griffin III is considered day-to-day and expects to play this week though practices will be critical to showing that he is over his knee sprain. It would be catastrophic to rush him back and get him injured again with the all-important season ender coming up. What could happen just when you need him the most is for Griffin to get a sizable lead - not unlikely given their 25 point win last time - and then to hand off to the apparently capable Cousins. That did not happen before but then again Griffin wasn't nursing a sprained knee.

Griffin ran 12 times for 84 yards and passed for 200 yards and four scores in the last meeting.

Alfred Morris only gained 76 yards on 20 runs last time but has been golden in every game since. He has already set the Redskins rookie record with 1,322 yards and nine touchdowns with two more weeks to go.

Logan Paulsen has been marginal at best filling in for Fred Davis since week seven but at least he had one touchdown this year - his only catch in the previous game against the Eagles. Aldrick Robinson also scored on his only catch then as did Santana Moss on his only catch. What is new this time around is that Pierre Garcon is back and scored in three of the last four games since that week 11 rout of the Eagles.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points WAS 2 16 11 26 12 10
Preventing Fantasy Points PHI 25 8 23 12 24 32

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Colt McCoy, WAS @IND 30000023011 ***
Tough to see McCoy carving out fantasy value here. Indy's not nearly as soft a touch as the Cowboys, who McCoy threw for 299 yards and added a rushing touchdown against. If that's his upside, expectations should be lowered significantly here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alfred Morris, WAS @IND 9011100000 ***
Morris has 90-plus yards in three straight as the Redskins start to lean on him more. We've seen grinders have success against Indy--think of Jonas Gray's 37-201-4--and you have to believe the Washington game plan calls for a whole lot more Morris than it does Colt McCoy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Roy Helu, WAS @IND 1005500000 ***
Helu is still a viable option in larger PPR leagues, but his workload clearly takes a back seat to Alfred Morris--and that makes his fantasy value tenuous at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR DeSean Jackson, WAS @IND 006800000 ***
Colt McCoy surprisingly kept DJax relevant during his brief tenure at the helm, so no need to write Jackson off this week just because you doubt Colt's arm.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Pierre Garcon, WAS @IND 003300000 ***
Garcon hasn't been fantasy relevant in a month and took a back seat to DeSean Jackson with Colt McCoy at the helm; we have no reason to think things will change here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Roberts, WAS @IND 002300000 ***
Roberts is the third wheel on what is shaping up to be either a bicycle or maybe even a unicycle of a Washington passing game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Niles Paul, WAS @IND 002201000 **
The Colts have allowed four TE TDs in the past four weeks, and with Jordan Reed still hobbled Paul should see the bulk of the targets. The last time Colt McCoy was under center Washington TEs saw 10 targets, so it's a definite opportunity for Paul this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, WAS @IND 1122 ***
The Colts have allowed multiple field goal attempts just once in the last eight games and only twice all season, so Forbath isn't likely to have much of an opportunity to swing the leg this week.

Philadelphia Eagles
Homefield: Lincoln Financial Field
Turf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @CLE 17-16 10 DAL 23-38
2 BAL 24-23 11 @WAS 6-31
3 @ARI 6-27 12 CAR 22-30
4 NYG 19-17 13 @DAL 33-38
5 @PIT 14-16 14 @TB 23-21
6 DET 23-26 15 CIN 13-34
7 BYE ----- 16 WAS ----
8 ATL 17-30 17 @NYG -----
9 @NO 13-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
PHI vs WAS Rush Catch Pass
QB Nick Foles 250,1
RB LeSean McCoy 50 2-10
RB Darren Sproles 20 5-40,1
WR Riley Cooper 3-40
WR Jeremy Maclin 6-70,1
TE Brent Celek 5-50

Pregame Notes: Andy Reid's time in green is drawing to a close and las week the wheels came off in yet another home game with the Bengals winning by 21 points. Getting a trap game is going to be hard this week since the Skins must win and already have played the Eagles once. The only real difference in this meeting is that the Eagles are four weeks closer to being dismantled.

Nick Foles remains under center even though Michael Vick is healthy again and now spending his time on the bench thumbing through a copy of Dog Lover magazine. Foles only managed 204 passing yards and two interceptions in the previous meeting with the Skins. He had a freakishly good game against the Buccaneers but turned back into a pumpkin last week versus the Bengals. To his credit, he has scored in each of the last three games.

HC Andy Reid says that LeSean McCoy has a chance to play this week after being medically cleared to return from his concussion. That seems completely unneeded and unwise given the season is over and McCoy would only risk injury for no real reason. Bryce Brown has been far less effective in these last two games that combined for only 40 yards on 28 carries. The last game that McCoy played was the previous matchup with the Redskins.

Clay Harbor has been placed on injured reserve because of his back spasms but Brent Celek is expected back from his concussion this week and caught five passes for 42 yards in the previous meeting. That was the game where Jeremy Maclin was held without any catches and DeSean Jackson only gained five yards on two catches.

This is a home game for the Eagles but that has not meant much during this season and last week's disappointing loss to the Bengals is a good sign that there's no late season surge in the making here. If anything, this will probably be the most hostile crowd they will yet be around and it is their own fans.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points PHI 16 23 17 22 22 29
Preventing Fantasy Points WAS 29 9 31 31 19 1

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Mark Sanchez, PHI @DAL 0000030022 ***
The Chip Kelly system has produced three straight 300-yard games for Sanchez, and while the Dallas D hasn't been as bad as anticipated they've given up 248 yards or better in five straight and three three-TD games in that span. Believe in the system, believe Sanchez can help your fantasy team this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, PHI @DAL 8011200000 ***
Two of the last three feature backs to face the Cowboys have carved out 100 combo yards, and Dallas has allowed five RB TDs in those three games. No reason to think McCoy can't follow up last week's big numbers with another solid fantasy showing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Darren Sproles, PHI @DAL 1004400000 ***
Spirals should see double-digit touches, but he'll likely need to swipe another goal line look--and convert it--to be a fantasy factor. Against a Dallas defense that's allowed five RB TDs in the past three weeks, we're saying' there's a chance.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, PHI @DAL 007801000 ***
Matthews has bulled his way into WR2 status in Philly, sharing targets and productivity with Jeremy Maclin. The Cowboys have tended to allow only one WR to go off per week, so nudge the rookie back a bit--but not too far, as there's still upside here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Maclin, PHI @DAL 0061000000 ***
Maclin has scored in three of his last four meetings with the Cowboys, and after watching Dallas give up big games to Odell Beckham Jr., Cecil Shorts and DeSean Jackson over the past month you have to like the speedster's chances of extending that trend.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Brent Celek, PHI @DAL 005601000 **
It's worth noting that four of the past six TE TDs the Cowboys have allowed have gone to TE2 types--like Celek. So if you're scraping the bottom of the barrel for fantasy help, Philly's second TE target is an option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Zach Ertz, PHI @DAL 004400000 ***
There's definite fantasy value here, as the Cowboys have allowed three TE TDs in the past four games. The concerns, however, are Ertz's health and the vulture capabilities of Brent Celek and James Casey.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Cody Parkey, PHI @DAL 2233 ****
Dallas hasn't allowed a field goal in a month, but Parkey is such a consistent point producer--at least seven points in every game except one this year--that he remains a solid fantasy option despite the matchup.

WEEK 16
2012
ATL at DET (SAT) CLE at DEN NO at DAL *SF at SEA
BUF at MIA *IND at KC *NYG at BAL STL at TB
CHI at ARI MIN at HOU OAK at CAR *TEN at GB
*Updated CIN at PIT *NE at JAC SD at NYJ WAS at PHI

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