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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: CHI 27, DET 17 (Line: CHI by 3)

Players to Watch: Calvin Johnson

The Bears are still in the hunt for the final NFC wildcard though they will need some help to get there. That makes this remake of the week seven win in Detroit still have NFL meaning instead of just being a vehicle to see if Calvin Johnson can break 2,000 receiving yards for the first time in history. Nothing would make the Lions happier though they are on a seven game losing streak.

Chicago Bears
Homefield: Soldier Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 IND 41-21 10 HOU 6-13
2 @GB 10-23 11 @SF 7-32
3 STL 23-6 12 MIN 28-10
4 @DAL 34-18 13 SEA 17-23
5 @JAC 41-3 14 @MIN 14-21
6 BYE ----- 15 GB 13-21
7 DET 13-7 16 @ARI 28-13
8 CAR 23-22 17 @DET -----
9 @TEN 51-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CHI @ DET Rush Catch Pass
QB Jay Cutler 240,2
RB Matt Forte 80,1 5-30
WR Alshon Jeffery 4-50,1
WR Brandon Marshall 8-120,1
TE Martellus Bennett 4-40
TE Steve Maneri 1-10
PK Olindo Mare 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bears offense has sputtered most of the year thanks mostly to a terrible offensive line and then an injury to Jay Cutler who plays the part of a tackling dummy in most games. This is a must-win and thankfully comes against a team that the Bears have beaten in eight of the last nine meetings. The defense has struggled in recent weeks but Brian Urlacher could be back which would help. But the offense has always been about only two players - Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall.

Forte aggravated his right ankle injury last week and had to wear a walking boot. He is optimistic that he can play and since this is a gotta-win event, he'll be there if at all possible. He already rushed for 96 yards on 22 carries at home versus the Lions and added three catches for four yards. The Bears would have to rely on Kahlil Bell otherwise along with Armando Allen. Even a banged up Forte is better than those options.

Cutler passed for only 150 yards and one score in the previous meeting and was sacked the obligatory five times. Cutler has been good for a touchdown every week he played but his yardage has rarely topped 200 in recent weeks and he is not playing 100% healthy anyway.

Alshon Jeffrey is the clear #2 wideout here and yet that is still true despite the one catch he totaled over the last two weeks. Like Megatron on the other side of the field, Marshall is the beginning and end of the passing game and already stung the Lions for one touchdown on his six catches for 81 yards in week seven. He is currently on a three game scoring streak and has 11 touchdowns on the season along with seven 100+ yard games. He's already caught 113 passes for 1466 yards. This has been a remarkable year that has exceeded all expectations for Marshall even if his success comes literally at the expense of all other receivers.

This is a must win which means as heavy of a dose of Marshall and Forte as they can get away with. Outside of those two, there are no decent fantasy plays on this team.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CHI 26 16 15 32 20 1
Preventing Fantasy Points DET 19 8 23 23 24 28

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jay Cutler, CHI @DET 0000024021 ***
Sure, the Lions held Cutler to 150 and 1 in the earlier meeting. But Detroit has now allowed 30-plus points in four of the last five and 24 or more in seven straight and really only cares about getting their passing game some records. In other words, defense is even less of a priority than usual. With the Bears in must-win mode and Matt Forte banged up, Cutler might actually put up decent numbers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, CHI @DET 8015300000 ***
Forte says he'll play on his ankle injury in this must-win game for the Bears, and he has historically fared quite well against Detroit: 100 yards from scrimmage and/or a touchdown in each of his nine career meetings with the Lions. It would be nice, however, to see him get some practice time in this week before trusting him with a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Brandon Marshall, CHI @DET 0081201000 ***
Marshall needs 34 yards to reach 1,500; that's pretty much a given. In fact, 34 catches for the guy who could finish the season with 100 more catches than the next closest Bear wideout wouldn't be all that shocking. The Bears need to win, which means a heavy dose of Marshall once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI @DET 004501000 ***
If there's to be any leftovers after Brandon Marshall takes his 20 catches off the top, they'll go to Jeffery. Considering the Falcons saw both their talented wideouts find the end zone last week, Jeffery's not a bad play in a must-win game for the Bears.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Martellus Bennett, CHI @DET 004400000 ***
Bennett was held to just one catch in the earlier meeting with Philly, and Bear Pascoe stole his touchdown in that game. The Eagles haven't given up a TE TD in more than a month, yet another trend that makes Bennett a difficult at best fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Steve Maneri, CHI @DET 001100000 ***
With Tony Moeaki hurt, Maneri is the tight end of record in Kansas City. Or so we think; he hasn't seen a target since mid-October.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Olindo Mare, CHI @DET 2233 ***
The Bears need to win, the Lions give up tons of points, and the weather won't be a factor. Not a bad combo if you're in need of a kicker this week.

Detroit Lions
Homefield: Ford Field
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 STL 27-23 10 @MIN 24-34
2 @SF 19-27 11 GB 20-24
3 @TEN 41-44 12 HOU 31-34
4 MIN 13-20 13 IND 33-35
5 BYE ----- 14 @GB 20-27
6 @PHI 26-23 15 @ARI 10-38
7 @CHI 7-13 16 ATL 18-31
8 SEA 28-24 17 CHI -----
9 @JAC 31-14 ----- ----- -----
News | Stats | Roster
DET vs CHI Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew Stafford 320,1
RB Joique Bell 6-50
RB Reggie Bush 60 2-20
RB Mikel Leshoure 40,1
WR Kris Durham 2-30
WR Calvin Johnson 12-160
TE Will Heller 2-30
TE Tony Scheffler 4-50,1
PK David Akers 1 FG 3 XP
PK Jason Hanson 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: it is fortunate that the season is winding down with Calvin Johnson setting an all-time NFL record because there would be little else worth noting. The offense has never taken off as it did in 2011 and once again suffered through not only rampant injuries but even had a receiver who somehow decided intentionally sabotaging plays was a good idea. The rushing game never saw Jahvid Best return but was able to squeeze an average year from Mikel Leshoure.

There are parts to build on for next year though Titus Young has played his last for the Lions if in the NFL at all. Nate Burleson was lost in week seven and Ryan Broyles was encouraging until he blew out his knee again. Broyles was a star in Oklahoma and should have been a lock for a nice NFL career but his knees apparently are going to stay in the way.

And yet through it all, Calvin Johnson has been amazing since the defenses all know exactly what is going to happen and yet they cannot stop him. Megatron has topped 100 yards in each of the last eight games and caught 10+ passes for the last four weeks. He gained 225 yards against the Falcons last week to break Jerry Rice's record. Now he only needs 108 yards yards to break 2,000 at home in front of all his fans in a season otherwise bleak and meaningless. And what is even better is that everyone has been happy for him and believes he deserves the accolades.

After seven straight losses and now facing a top 5 defense, the chance the Lions could pull off a trap win is hard to expect but outside of the Chicago area, this game will be watched just to see Johnson for the last time this year and likely securing what some thought could never be accomplished.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DET 8 12 6 7 6 28
Preventing Fantasy Points CHI 4 3 11 3 3 20

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matthew Stafford, DET CHI 0000032012 ***
Stafford needs 305 yards to crack the 5,000-yard mark, and Calvin Johnson is 108 shy of 2,000. The Lions already throw plenty anyway, here's one more reason to throw the ball even more. What else does Detroit have to play for?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Mikel Leshoure, DET CHI 401000000 ***
Leshoure has scored in five of six, capitalizing on Calvin Johnson's inability to find the end zone. But the Bears have been stingy to opposing backs, giving up just six RB rushing scores on the year. Add in Joique Bell stealing looks--especially in the passing game, which constitutes the bulk of the Lions' game plan--and Leshoure is a difficult fantasy start this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Reggie Bush, DET CHI 6002200000 ****
Bush only gained 64 yards in the home game against the Pats but scored twice as a receiver last week against the Bills. The Pats have never allowed any runner to gain more than 83 yards in New England and it is less likely Bush will run in a score this time than last.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Joique Bell, DET CHI 006500000 ***
Bell might roll up some yardage as the Lions' third down/passing situation back, but there's limited fantasy value here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Calvin Johnson, DET CHI 00121600000 ***
Da Bears held Megatron to three catches on 11 targets in the earlier meeting, but the two guys who picked up his slack--Titus Young and Ryan Broyles--are both out of the mix. CJ needs 108 yards to become CJ2K; over the past five he's averaged 17 targets, 10 catches, and 155 yards, so that mark is a given. Just don't expect a touchdown.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kris Durham, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Seriously, this is the best wingman the Lions can come up with? Everything's going to Megatron regardless of whether or not he's covered, no reason to think Durham suddenly becomes a competent receiver in Week 17 against a Bears team that needs to win.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Tony Scheffler, DET CHI 004501000 ***
With Brandon Pettigrew nicked Scheffler becomes the lead dog in the Lions' TEBC, but now he's sharing with Will Heller. Against a Bears D that hasn't allowed a TE TD in a month and only surrendered four all year, a half share isn't enough.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Heller, DET CHI 002300000 ***
Heller steps into Tony Scheffler's role now that Scheffler has taken on Brandon Pettigrew's duties. Meh.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K David Akers, DET CHI 2133 ***
Akers at home won't get skunked but may only kick extra points this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Hanson, DET CHI 2122 ***
The Lions probably can't send Hanson out a winner, but they could at least let him kick a couple for old time's sake.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t