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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: GB 25, MIN 20 (Line: GB by 3)

Players to Watch: Adrian Peterson

The Packers can wrap up a first round bye with a win here and already won 23-14 in the first meeting just three games ago. The Vikings can clinch a wildcard with a win though and that makes this game take on big implications. This game should be all about watching Adrian Peterson trying to get his name into the record books but now has taken on new meaning. Both teams have a need to win this game.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET 27-20
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI 21-13
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN 55-7
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 260,2
RB Ryan Grant 30
RB Alex Green 30
RB DuJuan Harris 30 3-20
WR James Jones 5-60,1
WR Jordy Nelson 3-40
TE Jermichael Finley 3-40
PK Mason Crosby 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers lit up the Titans last week which was needed after stumbling or winning small since the week 10 bye. The only change coming into this game from the last meeting just three weeks ago is that Randall Cobb will become a game time decision because of his ankle and Ryan Grant is now in the picture.

Aaron Rodgers only passed for 286 yards and one score in the previous meeting which was in the middle of a three game stretch of single-touchdown games. He has since thrown for three touchdown in each of the last two weeks. Partially the reason for lower passing stats has been the improved running though that comes in an overall sense. The Packers are using a committee of three runners each week.

James Starks ran for 66 yards and a score on 15 carries in week 13 and Alex Green added 58 yards on 12 runs. Now Ryan Grant is also in the picture and he comes off an 80-yard effort with two scores over the Titans. Alex Green is coming back from a concussion but is expected to be fine. Starks is dealing with a bone bruise and has all but been ruled out for the regular season finale.

Jordy Nelson may also be back after missing the last three games with a hamstring strain. Ironically his last game was against the Vikings but he's been of little production since week seven. With Cobb banged up, a healthy Nelson will help to compensate and what has been a better rushing effort should also be key to the attack.

Rodgers is an automatic start every week but beyond him it is harder to reply on any one player. Nelson is worth consideration if he suffers no setback but Cobb is hurt and James Jones has been a big risk/reward sort of player that can sting you as often as make you smile. Throw in a rushing effort that has been working despite the committee and suddenly the Packers are no longer stocked with elite fantasy options after Rodgers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 28 1 14 22 15
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 26 10 19 20 9 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Aaron Rodgers, GB @MIN 20000026021 ***
The Vikings have held four of the last five quarterbacks they've faced to one or zero touchdown tosses--a streak that includes limiting Rodgers to 286 and 1 in the earlier meeting. Rodgers has torn up the last two defenses he's faced, however, and has historically had his way with the Vikings so it would be silly to doubt him here--especially with a first-round bye on the line for Green Bay.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DuJuan Harris, GB @MIN 3003200000 ***
Throw Harris into the three-ring circus that is the Green Bay ground game. Even if they're as productive this time around as they were in the previous meeting with Minnesota, the three-way split renders each of them difficult fantasy starts at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Alex Green, GB @MIN 300000000 ***
The Packers ran with surprising effectiveness in their last meeting with Minnesota, but that was with a Green/James Starks combo. This week Mike McCarthy has indicated he'll use all three of his backs, and that doesn't even include John Kuhn at the stripe. Tough to trust a guy with a three-way split of his team's workload.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ryan Grant, GB @MIN 300000000 ***
Grant rolled the Titans for 80 yards and two TDs last week, but the Vikings are a tougher defense. And with Alex Green healthy the Packers backfield is expected to be a three-way split, which doesn't bode well for Grant's productivity.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR James Jones, GB @MIN 005601000 ***
The inexplicable NFL leader in touchdown receptions, Jones has benefited by being at times the only healthy receiver in Green Bay. With Jordy Nelson just coming back and Randall Cobb hobbled, Jones could be in line for even more scores this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @MIN 003400000 ***
Nelson is expected to be back for this game, perhaps only for a test drive before the playoffs. He's re-injured himself each time he's tried to come back, so using him in his first game off the bench is definitely risky.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jermichael Finley, GB @MIN 003400000 ***
Finley had 60 yards in the previous meeting with Minnesota and has topped 50 yards in five of the last six games. He's borderline trustable in fantasy circles once again.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @MIN 4322 ***
How the Packers still trust this guy with potentially the fate of their season defies explanation. You certainly don't have to do the same with the fate of your fantasy team.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET 34-24
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI 10-28
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB 14-23
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI 21-14
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL 36-22
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU 23-6
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder 20 190
RB Adrian Peterson 120,1 5-30
WR Greg Jennings 4-50,1
WR Jerome Simpson 2-30
WR Jarius Wright 3-40
TE Kyle Rudolph 4-40,1
PK Blair Walsh 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: Regardless if they win or lose, hats off to the Vikings who have prevailed and won their last three games despite having no discernible ability to throw and the defense knowing that Adrian Peterson is going to be getting at least every other play in the game. The defense is largely underrated and yet formidable and the special teams have helped even without Percy Harvin.

Peterson has been held out of practices because of abdomen and groin strains but it is the time of year to expect all runners to be nicked up and in this case, it is a miracle he can take the pounding. Peterson needs 102 rushing yards to break 2000 yards and he already ran for 210 yards on 21 carries with one score in Green Bay three weeks ago. Peterson is banged up by now to be sure and he was held to only 86 yards on 25 runs in Houston last week.

The rest of the league will watch for him to at least break 2000 yards which alone is jaw-dropping considering he is still not a full year removed from his knee surgery.

The winning is even more impressive considering that Christian Ponder has not thrown for more than 175 yards in the last five weeks and scored only three times in that stretch. Ponder only threw for 119 yards and only completed 12 of 25 in Green Bay thanks to getting the 210 yards from Peterson that game.

At least the Packers will probably expect to defend Peterson and already some on the team are publicly saying they will prevent him from getting any record. The running back is the only fantasy play on this team and that has been true since Percy Harvin went down in week nine. Kyle Rudolph did score against the Packers in the last meeting and is now the best receiving option for the Vikes. But this entire game depends on Peterson - what he can get and/or what the Packers are willing to allow in order to limit him.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 29 7 31 17 4 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 13 14 17 1 10 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Christian Ponder, MIN GB 20000019001 ***
Ponder hasn't topped 200 yards since Week 10 and has three passing TDs in the last five games. He's all about managing the game, and fantasy teams don't need to have the game managed for them.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Adrian Peterson, MIN GB 12015300000 ***
Peterson is playing through an abdomen injury... but if he can rush for 1,800 yards in the year since having his knee surgically repaired, what's another 100 in a "win and you're in" game? There's also a reasonable chance AD reprises the 210 he dropped on Green Bay in the earlier meeting, which would give him the NFL single-season rushing record. After all he's accomplished to this point, now is not the time to start betting against him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Jennings, MIN GB 004501000 ***
Jennings posted 4-46 in the earlier meeting with Minnesota, his first game back after an extended injury absence. He scored last week and now has a month of games under his belt. Add in Jordy Nelson's questionable status and Randall Cobb's bum ankle and Jennings could be back atop the Packers' passing game pecking order this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jarius Wright, MIN GB 003400000 ***
Wright's 53 yards last week was the most by a Minnesota wideout since his 62 yard outburst back in Week 10. So if you're forced to start a Vikings wide receiver, he's the best of a sorry lot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jerome Simpson, MIN GB 002300000 ***
Simpson is an occasional contributor in the passing game, but nowhere near worthy of a fantasy start.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN GB 004401000 ***
Rudolph scored last week and also scored in the earlier meeting with the Packers. His yardage of late hasn't been enough to justify a fantasy start--to be expected when a big day for your passing game means triple-digit yardage--but his nine touchdowns have him in range of the Vikings' team record for tight ends. Not that they'll be preoccupied with the playoff berth or another record, but it does increase the likelihood Rudy finds the end zone again this week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Blair Walsh, MIN GB 3211 ***
The Pro Bowler missed his only attempt in the earlier meeting with Green Bay, but with eight treys in the past two games and a big leg that's already netted him the rookie record for 50-yard field goals he's tough to bet against.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

a d v e r t i s e m e n t