FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: GB 25, MIN 20 (Line: GB by 3)

Players to Watch: Adrian Peterson

The Packers can wrap up a first round bye with a win here and already won 23-14 in the first meeting just three games ago. The Vikings can clinch a wildcard with a win though and that makes this game take on big implications. This game should be all about watching Adrian Peterson trying to get his name into the record books but now has taken on new meaning. Both teams have a need to win this game.

Green Bay Packers
Homefield: Lambeau Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 SF 22-30 10 BYE -----
2 CHI 23-10 11 @DET 24-20
3 @SEA 12-14 12 @NYG 10-38
4 NO 28-27 13 MIN 23-14
5 @IND 27-30 14 DET 27-20
6 @HOU 42-24 15 @CHI 21-13
7 @STL 30-20 16 TEN 55-7
8 JAC 24-15 17 @MIN -----
9 ARI 31-17 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 20 260,2
WR Jordy Nelson 3-40
TE Lance Kendricks 3-40
PK Mason Crosby 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers lit up the Titans last week which was needed after stumbling or winning small since the week 10 bye. The only change coming into this game from the last meeting just three weeks ago is that Randall Cobb will become a game time decision because of his ankle and Ryan Grant is now in the picture.

Aaron Rodgers only passed for 286 yards and one score in the previous meeting which was in the middle of a three game stretch of single-touchdown games. He has since thrown for three touchdown in each of the last two weeks. Partially the reason for lower passing stats has been the improved running though that comes in an overall sense. The Packers are using a committee of three runners each week.

James Starks ran for 66 yards and a score on 15 carries in week 13 and Alex Green added 58 yards on 12 runs. Now Ryan Grant is also in the picture and he comes off an 80-yard effort with two scores over the Titans. Alex Green is coming back from a concussion but is expected to be fine. Starks is dealing with a bone bruise and has all but been ruled out for the regular season finale.

Jordy Nelson may also be back after missing the last three games with a hamstring strain. Ironically his last game was against the Vikings but he's been of little production since week seven. With Cobb banged up, a healthy Nelson will help to compensate and what has been a better rushing effort should also be key to the attack.

Rodgers is an automatic start every week but beyond him it is harder to reply on any one player. Nelson is worth consideration if he suffers no setback but Cobb is hurt and James Jones has been a big risk/reward sort of player that can sting you as often as make you smile. Throw in a rushing effort that has been working despite the committee and suddenly the Packers are no longer stocked with elite fantasy options after Rodgers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 28 1 14 22 15
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 26 10 19 20 9 9

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brett Hundley, GB @PIT 20100020003 ***
Hundley does not belong in a fantasy lineup. In fact, he really has no place on a roster. The Steelers have been up and down against passers, but this defense shouldn't have a problem exploiting him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Williams, GB @PIT 5004400000 ***
This is the worst matchup for both scoring systems using data since Week 6. The Steelers have not allowed a running back to score over the past 92 touches.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Ty Montgomery, GB @PIT 00000000 *
Montgomery's status remains unclear at this time. Check back later in the week for an update.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Davante Adams, GB @PIT 005600000 ***
This is the fourth-best matchup for fantasy points per play by wideouts, despite being the 17th-best for reception volume. The Steelers have yielded one TD per game to wide receivers. Adams has proven to be about the only reliable option with Brett Hundley at the helm. On the road, this may go south in a hurry.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Randall Cobb, GB @PIT 003400000 ***
Cobb has seen a few dump-offs here and there but has not carved out a role with the limited Brett Hundley tossing the ball. Pittsburgh has given up only 11.3 receptions a game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordy Nelson, GB @PIT 004400000 ***
Nelson has plummeted to basically being unplayable without Aaron Rodgers. There is no chemistry or timing with Brett Hundley. The Steelers have granted receivers one touchdown a game on 11.3 catches.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Mason Crosby, GB @PIT 1111 ***
The matchup is neutral but skews negative. The Packers may struggle to move the ball with any regularity, and this isn't a reasonable time to chance it.

Minnesota Vikings
Homefield: Metrodome
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 JAC 26-23 ot 10 DET 34-24
2 @IND 20-23 11 BYE -----
3 SF 24-13 12 @CHI 10-28
4 @DET 20-13 13 @GB 14-23
5 TEN 30-7 14 CHI 21-14
6 @WAS 26-38 15 @STL 36-22
7 ARI 21-14 16 @HOU 23-6
8 TB 17-36 17 GB -----
9 @SEA 20-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Sam Bradford 200
WR Jarius Wright 3-40
TE Kyle Rudolph 4-40,1
PK Kai Forbath 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Regardless if they win or lose, hats off to the Vikings who have prevailed and won their last three games despite having no discernible ability to throw and the defense knowing that Adrian Peterson is going to be getting at least every other play in the game. The defense is largely underrated and yet formidable and the special teams have helped even without Percy Harvin.

Peterson has been held out of practices because of abdomen and groin strains but it is the time of year to expect all runners to be nicked up and in this case, it is a miracle he can take the pounding. Peterson needs 102 rushing yards to break 2000 yards and he already ran for 210 yards on 21 carries with one score in Green Bay three weeks ago. Peterson is banged up by now to be sure and he was held to only 86 yards on 25 runs in Houston last week.

The rest of the league will watch for him to at least break 2000 yards which alone is jaw-dropping considering he is still not a full year removed from his knee surgery.

The winning is even more impressive considering that Christian Ponder has not thrown for more than 175 yards in the last five weeks and scored only three times in that stretch. Ponder only threw for 119 yards and only completed 12 of 25 in Green Bay thanks to getting the 210 yards from Peterson that game.

At least the Packers will probably expect to defend Peterson and already some on the team are publicly saying they will prevent him from getting any record. The running back is the only fantasy play on this team and that has been true since Percy Harvin went down in week nine. Kyle Rudolph did score against the Packers in the last meeting and is now the best receiving option for the Vikes. But this entire game depends on Peterson - what he can get and/or what the Packers are willing to allow in order to limit him.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 29 7 31 17 4 14
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 13 14 17 1 10 5

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Case Keenum, MIN @DET 0000028011 ***
Keenum didn't throw a TD in the Week 4 meeting with the Vikings, nor did he make any big mistakes. Counting on him for a big fantasy day -- or even a starting-quality effort -- might be asking for a bit much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Latavius Murray, MIN @DET 601000000 ***
Murray should benefit from the matchup in relation to what it offers for the more versatile Jerick McKinnon. Detroit has been far worse against rushing gains than the aerial offerings. One in every 17.4 carries has scored, which is the second-softest rate in football.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jerick McKinnon, MIN @DET 4004300000 ***
Dalvin Cook was the back in the first meeting. McKinnon has been up and down, so this one comes with some risk. The Lions not allowed much through the air (no TDs on 20 catches) but have been steamrolled on the ground. One in 17.4 rushes has scored (2nd), and this defense is allowing the ninth-most rushing yards a week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Adam Thielen, MIN @DET 006801000 ***
Thielen is playing on a different level at this point, but he has gone three straight games vs. Detroit without a touchdown. This projection is probably a little optimistic. Either way, he's definitely a must-start in all conventional formats. Only two of the last 47 receptions have scored against the Lions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Stefon Diggs, MIN @DET 004600000 ***
Diggs was good for 98 yards on five grabs in the Week 4 game. Last year, he played in only the Week 9 contest at Detroit and went for 13-80-0 on 14 targets. Diggs has been largely silent in recent weeks. He has midrange appeal in PPR formats.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Kyle Rudolph, MIN @DET 003300000 ***
Rudolph's production has been all over the map vs. Detroit in teh last three meetings. He has one TD, which came on his lone catch in the first 2016 game. The Lions are light years better at stopping the position this season, ranking as the 21st-best matchup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Kai Forbath, MIN @DET 3322 ***
A lone point is all Forbath could muster in the Week 4 matchup with Detroit. The Lions have surrendered 2.5 XPAs and 1.8 FGAs on average, with two of the seven field goals missing since Week 6.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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