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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: JAC 17, TEN 24 (Line: TEN by 4)

Players to Watch: Jordan Shipley, Justin Blackmon, Chris Johnson

The seasons draws to a close at the bottom of the AFC South with the 2-13 Jaguars heading to Tennessee to face the 5-10 Titans. This is a replay of week 12 when the Jaguars actually beat someone anyone the Titans 24-19. The Jaguars can't run and the Titans can't pass but it is a home game for Tennessee.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA 3-24
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE 16-23
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 200,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-40
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The first year for HC Mike Mularkey could have gone better to be sure but he inherited a mess with the MJD failed holdout and Blaine Gabbert who finally wore out his welcome after two horrible seasons. The addition of Justin Blackmon has been far more successful since Gabbert left in week 11 and the rookie at worst gets an incomplete on his season. Posting 236 yards in one game was a great way to finally show up without Gabbert there to ruin it.

Cecil Shorts had a breakout season of sorts with seven touchdowns and four efforts that topped 100 receiving yards but he has been placed on injured reserve because of his concussion. The duo of Blackmon and Shorts give some optimism to the future.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been questionable for weeks now but never really practices or plays and there is no reason to expect him to show up now and get injured in a very meaningless final game. Rashad Jennings was placed on injured reserve as well with a shoulder injury and a concussion. Without Jones-Drew around, no other runner came close to filling in as well. Montell Owens had two games go over 100 total yards but on the road he never had more than 50 total yards. All combined, this unit only ran in four touchdowns all year.

Chad Henne passed for 261 yards and two scores against the visiting Titans in week 12 but has been far less productive since - especially on the road. His last two efforts away from home never topped 202 pass yards and combined for only one score. With Shorts out, that removes the best receiver from the last meeting. He turned in 105 yards on four catches with one score while Blackmon also scored with 62 yards on five receptions.

This is the end of a bad season and on the road. But Montell Owens should still be a decent start this week against a defense that allowed Jennings to score once and gain 43 rush yards. Blackmon is also worthy of a start as the lone remaining good wideout and he had success just four weeks ago against them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 31 16 28 29 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 30 21 27 31 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Chad Henne, JAC @IND 0000018012 ***
Henne has multiple touchdown passes in four straight games, though he hasn't topped 237 yards in any of those outings. He'll be better than Blaine Gabbert (179 & 0) was in the earlier meeting between these clubs; whether he'll do enough to be a fantasy helper is another matter entirely.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Mike Brown, JAC @IND 004600000 ***
Indy has shut out the last two receiving corps they've faced, and with Jacksonville down to its depth receivers there isn't much to see here. Brown has been the most successful of late, so if you're reaching he's the one to reach for.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Ace Sanders, JAC @IND 003400000 ***
Sanders was a serviceable wingman in the earlier meeting with Indy, but he was a bit player last week against the Titans and has a total of just 63 yards the past three games. Tough to bank on him for any sort of fantasy contribution here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @IND 005301000 ****
No tight end is hotter than Lewis, who has scored in four straight. It's not a particularly favorable matchup here, but with all of Jacksonville's wideouts hurt Lewis has become the go-to guy.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @IND 1111 ****
Scobee has just one double-digit effort all year, and it certainly wasn't his three-point showing in the earlier meeting with Indy. Get your kicks elsewhere.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB 7-55
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 30 190,1
RB Jackie Battle 50 1-10
RB Shonn Greene 80,1
RB Dexter McCluster 5-30
WR Nate Washington 4-50
WR Kendall Wright 2-30

Pregame Notes: The Titans are winding down another bad season but at least there was some progress made. Chris Johnson was so bad in 2011 that there were reasonable questions about whether he had been used up in his quest to gain 2000 yards. Even earlier this year he was throwing the offensive line under the proverbial bus as to why he was unable to get loose beyond the line of scrimmage for one of his trademarked long runs.

Finally in week four he ran for 141 yards in Houston and since has mostly been good. He's been unproductive in four or five games but all were either on the road or at home against the same Texans he burned in week four. He has only five touchdowns on the year but eight times turned in over 100 total yards including a season best 195 yards and two scores in Buffalo. Johnson ran for 80 yards on 21 runs in Jacksonville. He added 29 yards on two catches as well.

Kendall Wright is expected back after missing last week because of his ribs. The rookie started the year out nicely and scored four touchdowns but his stat line took a major decrease after week six when Kenny Britt began to be featured much more - at the expense of Wright. In the first meeting with the Jags, Wright gained 48 yards on five catches and Britt accounted for three receptions for 25 yards and one touchdown. Washington had his normal 54 yards on four catches.

With Jared Cook on injured reserve, Craig Stevens only had one catch before getting a concussion last week in Green Bay.

This should be a very nice game for Johnson against a defense that has only been getting worse and more so when they are on the road. The last six road opponents for the Jags all threw at least two touchdowns against them but Locker only scored once on his 261 yards in Jacksonville in a game they threw more while trying to catch up.

Johnson is a must start here but the others are only marginal plays. I do like the chance for a defensive score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 30 20 18 24 17
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 21 31 18 10 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shonn Greene, TEN HOU 301000000 ***
It only took four months for Green to live up to the job share we were anticipating back in August. Greene saw almost as many carries as Chris Johnson and swiped his touchdown; he now owns three of Tennessee's last four RB rushing scores. Both teams are playing out the string, and if Greene is going to get a similar workload it's tough to bet against him.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN HOU 0061001000 ****
Wright owns four of the last five double-digit target outings by Titans receivers, including 20 two weeks ago. He also turned 11 targets into 54 yards and a score when the Titans faced Houston in Week 2 and is without question Tennessee's top downfield target.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, TEN HOU 003400000 ***
Washington is an occasional contributor as the Titans' secondary receiver, battling Justin Hunter for looks. Ultimately, it's not a gig that offers a ton of fantasy upside.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Hunter, TEN HOU 002400000 ***
Assuming Hunter doesn't run afoul of team rules again, he'll get a chance to show his stuff as the deep threat/big play complement to Kendall Wright's steady possession receiver.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN HOU 003301000 ***
Walker scored in the earlier meeting with Houston back in Week 2. More recently he has 18 targets, 88 yards and a touchdown in the past two games. And with the Texans having given up three tight end touchdowns in the past four games, Walker makes a very good fantasy play this week.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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