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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: JAC 17, TEN 24 (Line: TEN by 4)

Players to Watch: Jordan Shipley, Justin Blackmon, Chris Johnson

The seasons draws to a close at the bottom of the AFC South with the 2-13 Jaguars heading to Tennessee to face the 5-10 Titans. This is a replay of week 12 when the Jaguars actually beat someone anyone the Titans 24-19. The Jaguars can't run and the Titans can't pass but it is a home game for Tennessee.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA 3-24
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE 16-23
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 200,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-40
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The first year for HC Mike Mularkey could have gone better to be sure but he inherited a mess with the MJD failed holdout and Blaine Gabbert who finally wore out his welcome after two horrible seasons. The addition of Justin Blackmon has been far more successful since Gabbert left in week 11 and the rookie at worst gets an incomplete on his season. Posting 236 yards in one game was a great way to finally show up without Gabbert there to ruin it.

Cecil Shorts had a breakout season of sorts with seven touchdowns and four efforts that topped 100 receiving yards but he has been placed on injured reserve because of his concussion. The duo of Blackmon and Shorts give some optimism to the future.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been questionable for weeks now but never really practices or plays and there is no reason to expect him to show up now and get injured in a very meaningless final game. Rashad Jennings was placed on injured reserve as well with a shoulder injury and a concussion. Without Jones-Drew around, no other runner came close to filling in as well. Montell Owens had two games go over 100 total yards but on the road he never had more than 50 total yards. All combined, this unit only ran in four touchdowns all year.

Chad Henne passed for 261 yards and two scores against the visiting Titans in week 12 but has been far less productive since - especially on the road. His last two efforts away from home never topped 202 pass yards and combined for only one score. With Shorts out, that removes the best receiver from the last meeting. He turned in 105 yards on four catches with one score while Blackmon also scored with 62 yards on five receptions.

This is the end of a bad season and on the road. But Montell Owens should still be a decent start this week against a defense that allowed Jennings to score once and gain 43 rush yards. Blackmon is also worthy of a start as the lone remaining good wideout and he had success just four weeks ago against them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 31 16 28 29 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 30 21 27 31 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @BAL 20000019002 ***
The Ravens are certainly flawed in their secondary with Jimmy Smith out, but there's nothing in Bortles' nine games with one or zero touchdown passes to suggest he's ready to take advantage.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Storm Johnson, JAC @BAL 2001100000 ***
Update: With Denard Robinson out Storm might get some touches, but don't expect anything but a steady rain of tears if you're forced to plug him into your fantasy lineup this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jordan Todman, JAC @BAL 2002100000 ***
Update: It's a lousy matchup for Todman to possibly get a portion of the carries. You want no part of him in your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Toby Gerhart, JAC @BAL 200000000 ***
Gerhart will get the carries with Denard Robinson on the shelf, but no back has rushed for more than 68 yards against Baltimore this year so don't expect much.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @BAL 005600000 ***
There might be a touchdown here against Baltimore's scuffling secondary, but right now Lee is splitting targets with Allen Hurns and Cecil Shorts to the point that none of them stand out as a fantasy option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC @BAL 004500000 ***
Shorts is in a walk year and with Jacksonville drafting so many wideouts it's unlikely they bring him back. So it's a favorable matchup against a struggling secondary; whether or not Shorts can do anything about it, however, remains to be seen.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC @BAL 003300000 ***
Hurns has a chance to carve out a niche in the Jacksonville passing game down the stretch, but he can't be banked on in the Jaguars' fractured receiving corps--even given a favorable matchup with the struggling Ravens' secondary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Marcedes Lewis, JAC @BAL 004400000 ***
Don't get too hopped up over Lewis' 69-yard performance last week, as he's unlikely to repeat it against a Baltimore D that's allowed only one non-Jimmy Smith TE TD since Week 5.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC @BAL 2200 ***
Scobee is averaging less than five points per game; no reason to look for him for fantasy help.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB 7-55
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 30 190,1
RB Jackie Battle 50 1-10
RB Shonn Greene 80,1
RB Dexter McCluster 5-30
WR Kris Durham 2-30
WR Nate Washington 4-50
WR Kendall Wright 2-30
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans are winding down another bad season but at least there was some progress made. Chris Johnson was so bad in 2011 that there were reasonable questions about whether he had been used up in his quest to gain 2000 yards. Even earlier this year he was throwing the offensive line under the proverbial bus as to why he was unable to get loose beyond the line of scrimmage for one of his trademarked long runs.

Finally in week four he ran for 141 yards in Houston and since has mostly been good. He's been unproductive in four or five games but all were either on the road or at home against the same Texans he burned in week four. He has only five touchdowns on the year but eight times turned in over 100 total yards including a season best 195 yards and two scores in Buffalo. Johnson ran for 80 yards on 21 runs in Jacksonville. He added 29 yards on two catches as well.

Kendall Wright is expected back after missing last week because of his ribs. The rookie started the year out nicely and scored four touchdowns but his stat line took a major decrease after week six when Kenny Britt began to be featured much more - at the expense of Wright. In the first meeting with the Jags, Wright gained 48 yards on five catches and Britt accounted for three receptions for 25 yards and one touchdown. Washington had his normal 54 yards on four catches.

With Jared Cook on injured reserve, Craig Stevens only had one catch before getting a concussion last week in Green Bay.

This should be a very nice game for Johnson against a defense that has only been getting worse and more so when they are on the road. The last six road opponents for the Jags all threw at least two touchdowns against them but Locker only scored once on his 261 yards in Jacksonville in a game they threw more while trying to catch up.

Johnson is a must start here but the others are only marginal plays. I do like the chance for a defensive score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 30 20 18 24 17
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 21 31 18 10 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jake Locker, TEN NYJ 0000023021 ***
Time for Jake to make himself some money: the Jets have allowed multiple passing scores in every road game, so it's a golden opportunity for Locker to show well and draw free agent interest in the offseason. Hey, if Bridgewater, Orton, and Smith can do it why not Locker?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN NYJ 4002100000 ***
When "the bulk" of the carries consists of 9, 10, or 11, you know it's time to look elsewhere for fantasy help. That's the deal with Sankey, with a tough matchup against Gang Green to boot.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Nate Washington, TEN NYJ 005701000 **
Washington had a golden opportunity sans Kendall Wright and Justin Hunter, but all he could muster was three targets. A Jets secondary that allowed two Vikings WRs to top 100 yards and score last week feels like another chance for Washington to help your fantasy squad.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Derek Hagan, TEN NYJ 002300000 ***
Hagan zoomed to the top of the Titans' target list last week. Facing a Jets D that stuffs the run but struggles against the pass, expect Tennessee's game plan to be heavy on passing--at least enough to push Hagan onto the fringe of fantasy relevancy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN NYJ 007801000 ***
The Jets have allowed a dozen TE TDs and a half-dozen games of 50-plus yards to the position. Mix that with the heavily targeted Walker and you have a dynamite fantasy play.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN NYJ 2122 ***
The Jets have allowed at least six points to every kicker since Week 1 as well as every visiting kicker. However, Succor hasn't topped six points since Week 6, and with the Titans changing QBs there are plenty of questions about how effective their offense will be. Get your fantasy kicks elsewhere.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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