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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: JAC 17, TEN 24 (Line: TEN by 4)

Players to Watch: Jordan Shipley, Justin Blackmon, Chris Johnson

The seasons draws to a close at the bottom of the AFC South with the 2-13 Jaguars heading to Tennessee to face the 5-10 Titans. This is a replay of week 12 when the Jaguars actually beat someone anyone the Titans 24-19. The Jaguars can't run and the Titans can't pass but it is a home game for Tennessee.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA 3-24
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE 16-23
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 200,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-40

Pregame Notes: The first year for HC Mike Mularkey could have gone better to be sure but he inherited a mess with the MJD failed holdout and Blaine Gabbert who finally wore out his welcome after two horrible seasons. The addition of Justin Blackmon has been far more successful since Gabbert left in week 11 and the rookie at worst gets an incomplete on his season. Posting 236 yards in one game was a great way to finally show up without Gabbert there to ruin it.

Cecil Shorts had a breakout season of sorts with seven touchdowns and four efforts that topped 100 receiving yards but he has been placed on injured reserve because of his concussion. The duo of Blackmon and Shorts give some optimism to the future.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been questionable for weeks now but never really practices or plays and there is no reason to expect him to show up now and get injured in a very meaningless final game. Rashad Jennings was placed on injured reserve as well with a shoulder injury and a concussion. Without Jones-Drew around, no other runner came close to filling in as well. Montell Owens had two games go over 100 total yards but on the road he never had more than 50 total yards. All combined, this unit only ran in four touchdowns all year.

Chad Henne passed for 261 yards and two scores against the visiting Titans in week 12 but has been far less productive since - especially on the road. His last two efforts away from home never topped 202 pass yards and combined for only one score. With Shorts out, that removes the best receiver from the last meeting. He turned in 105 yards on four catches with one score while Blackmon also scored with 62 yards on five receptions.

This is the end of a bad season and on the road. But Montell Owens should still be a decent start this week against a defense that allowed Jennings to score once and gain 43 rush yards. Blackmon is also worthy of a start as the lone remaining good wideout and he had success just four weeks ago against them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 31 16 28 29 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 30 21 27 31 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC BAL 0000019012 ***
This one could get ugly. The Ravens have eight interceptions to only one TD allowed, which is easily the biggest differential in the league. Bortles turned it over three times last week, even if one wasn't his doing.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Leonard Fournette, JAC BAL 5014300000 **
This is a risky time to deploy the bright rookie rusher. Fournette takes on a Baltimore team that hasn't given up a touchdown in 35 straight carries this year. Consider the projection slightly optimistic for a back who has scored in each of his first two pro games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC BAL 006700000 ***
Baltimore has given up only 20 catches for 242 yards and is one of six teams to keep WRs out of the end zone so far. Lee would be a stretch for a starting lineup spot in conventional leagues.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC BAL 005600000 ***
Hurns enjoyed a strong game last week, by his standards, anyway. This go-around involves Baltimore's No. 6-ranked defense of receivers in fantasy. It may not be such a rosy day for the wideout.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC BAL 2211 ***
With just a lone extra point and single field goal to go through the uprights against the Ravens this year, Myers could struggle to see enough opportunities to matter.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB 7-55
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB DeMarco Murray 50 4-30
WR Eric Decker 6-70,1
WR Harry Douglas 3-40
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans are winding down another bad season but at least there was some progress made. Chris Johnson was so bad in 2011 that there were reasonable questions about whether he had been used up in his quest to gain 2000 yards. Even earlier this year he was throwing the offensive line under the proverbial bus as to why he was unable to get loose beyond the line of scrimmage for one of his trademarked long runs.

Finally in week four he ran for 141 yards in Houston and since has mostly been good. He's been unproductive in four or five games but all were either on the road or at home against the same Texans he burned in week four. He has only five touchdowns on the year but eight times turned in over 100 total yards including a season best 195 yards and two scores in Buffalo. Johnson ran for 80 yards on 21 runs in Jacksonville. He added 29 yards on two catches as well.

Kendall Wright is expected back after missing last week because of his ribs. The rookie started the year out nicely and scored four touchdowns but his stat line took a major decrease after week six when Kenny Britt began to be featured much more - at the expense of Wright. In the first meeting with the Jags, Wright gained 48 yards on five catches and Britt accounted for three receptions for 25 yards and one touchdown. Washington had his normal 54 yards on four catches.

With Jared Cook on injured reserve, Craig Stevens only had one catch before getting a concussion last week in Green Bay.

This should be a very nice game for Johnson against a defense that has only been getting worse and more so when they are on the road. The last six road opponents for the Jags all threw at least two touchdowns against them but Locker only scored once on his 261 yards in Jacksonville in a game they threw more while trying to catch up.

Johnson is a must start here but the others are only marginal plays. I do like the chance for a defensive score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 30 20 18 24 17
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 21 31 18 10 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Marcus Mariota, TEN SEA 30000022011 ***
The fourth-toughest matchup comes to town, and Mariota's starting running back may not dress. While Derrick Henry is a capable backup, he isn't the receiving or pass-blocking asset of DeMarco Murray's level. Corey Davis has been ruled out, and trusting Mariota in this one isn't advised.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN SEA 10011100000 ***
Henry is the smarter choice in this backfield against Seattle, but it will take the projected score in order for Henry to live up to a start. Seattle has granted a lone TD to RBs in two games.

Update: Look for a larger load for Henry. Murray is a game-time call and may be very limited if he goes.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN SEA 2001100000 *
Murray is day-to-day with a hamstring strain, an injury he has a history of suffering. Should he dress, expect more Derrick Henry than usual. Seattle has allowed only one touchdown to RBs in this young year.

Update: Following a limited session Friday, Murray is a true game-time decision. At a minimum, he'll be kept on a reasonable pitch count, if he plays.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Taywan Taylor, TEN SEA 002400000 ***
Taylor extended for a beautiful grab last week and has some chops. He could see a little more work this week with Corey Davis out of action. Gamers shouldn't be excited to play him as he faces a stout pass defense.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, TEN SEA 003300000 ***
Seattle has allowed 27 catches but only one TD so far to the position. There is a bit more intrigue since Corey Davis cannot go, but Decker is a dangerous play.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN SEA 003300000 ***
Matthews is probably the only Titans receiver worth taking a chance on in fantasy this week, and that's a big gamble. Seattle has allowed only one TD in two games to the position.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN SEA 006601000 ***
Through two weeks, Seattle has given up 80 yards on eight grabs, rating as the seventh-worst matchup for tight ends. This is an optimistic projection but within reach.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN SEA 2222 ***
Seattle's defense has granted two post-TD kicks and four field goals in two weeks, averaging out to a modest seven fantasy points against.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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