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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: JAC 17, TEN 24 (Line: TEN by 4)

Players to Watch: Jordan Shipley, Justin Blackmon, Chris Johnson

The seasons draws to a close at the bottom of the AFC South with the 2-13 Jaguars heading to Tennessee to face the 5-10 Titans. This is a replay of week 12 when the Jaguars actually beat someone anyone the Titans 24-19. The Jaguars can't run and the Titans can't pass but it is a home game for Tennessee.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA 3-24
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE 16-23
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 200,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-40

Pregame Notes: The first year for HC Mike Mularkey could have gone better to be sure but he inherited a mess with the MJD failed holdout and Blaine Gabbert who finally wore out his welcome after two horrible seasons. The addition of Justin Blackmon has been far more successful since Gabbert left in week 11 and the rookie at worst gets an incomplete on his season. Posting 236 yards in one game was a great way to finally show up without Gabbert there to ruin it.

Cecil Shorts had a breakout season of sorts with seven touchdowns and four efforts that topped 100 receiving yards but he has been placed on injured reserve because of his concussion. The duo of Blackmon and Shorts give some optimism to the future.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been questionable for weeks now but never really practices or plays and there is no reason to expect him to show up now and get injured in a very meaningless final game. Rashad Jennings was placed on injured reserve as well with a shoulder injury and a concussion. Without Jones-Drew around, no other runner came close to filling in as well. Montell Owens had two games go over 100 total yards but on the road he never had more than 50 total yards. All combined, this unit only ran in four touchdowns all year.

Chad Henne passed for 261 yards and two scores against the visiting Titans in week 12 but has been far less productive since - especially on the road. His last two efforts away from home never topped 202 pass yards and combined for only one score. With Shorts out, that removes the best receiver from the last meeting. He turned in 105 yards on four catches with one score while Blackmon also scored with 62 yards on five receptions.

This is the end of a bad season and on the road. But Montell Owens should still be a decent start this week against a defense that allowed Jennings to score once and gain 43 rush yards. Blackmon is also worthy of a start as the lone remaining good wideout and he had success just four weeks ago against them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 31 16 28 29 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 30 21 27 31 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC @IND 20000023011 ***
This is a bottom-10 matchup on paper, but the Jags played inspired ball last week with Doug Marrone calling the shots. Way back in Week 4, Bortles ran in a TD and threw two more against the Colts.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, JAC @IND 8013200000 ***
Indianapolis provides a fruitful matchup for Ivory to close out his season. The Colts have given up the sixth most fantasy points per game in the last five weeks. Ivory is a sneaky play. He was limited in Wednesday's practice, but it was probably precautionary.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC @IND 006701000 ***
Robinson is coming off a big game and faces a Colts defense that allowed him to score in their Week 4 tilt. He corralled five balls for 55 yards. The Indy defense has given up a TD every 10 catches in the past five games.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marqise Lee, JAC @IND 005700000 ***
Lee has some upside and is a sound PPR play. The Colts have allowed only 10 catches per game, but one of them has found the end zone, on average. Slide him in as a WR3 or flex.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Jason Myers, JAC @IND 2211 ***
Myers was a field goal factory in Week 16, making 4-for-4 from long range. He is rarely a reliable player, though, and he missed a pair of PATs in that game. Indy has allowed 6.6 fantasy points per game in the last five weeks.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB 7-55
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB DeMarco Murray 50 4-30
WR Eric Decker 6-70,1
WR Harry Douglas 3-40
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans are winding down another bad season but at least there was some progress made. Chris Johnson was so bad in 2011 that there were reasonable questions about whether he had been used up in his quest to gain 2000 yards. Even earlier this year he was throwing the offensive line under the proverbial bus as to why he was unable to get loose beyond the line of scrimmage for one of his trademarked long runs.

Finally in week four he ran for 141 yards in Houston and since has mostly been good. He's been unproductive in four or five games but all were either on the road or at home against the same Texans he burned in week four. He has only five touchdowns on the year but eight times turned in over 100 total yards including a season best 195 yards and two scores in Buffalo. Johnson ran for 80 yards on 21 runs in Jacksonville. He added 29 yards on two catches as well.

Kendall Wright is expected back after missing last week because of his ribs. The rookie started the year out nicely and scored four touchdowns but his stat line took a major decrease after week six when Kenny Britt began to be featured much more - at the expense of Wright. In the first meeting with the Jags, Wright gained 48 yards on five catches and Britt accounted for three receptions for 25 yards and one touchdown. Washington had his normal 54 yards on four catches.

With Jared Cook on injured reserve, Craig Stevens only had one catch before getting a concussion last week in Green Bay.

This should be a very nice game for Johnson against a defense that has only been getting worse and more so when they are on the road. The last six road opponents for the Jags all threw at least two touchdowns against them but Locker only scored once on his 261 yards in Jacksonville in a game they threw more while trying to catch up.

Johnson is a must start here but the others are only marginal plays. I do like the chance for a defensive score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 30 20 18 24 17
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 21 31 18 10 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Matt Cassel, TEN HOU 0000020001 **
No writeup available
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB DeMarco Murray, TEN HOU 10013200000 ***
Murray will try to cap off a brilliant season with a bang against a Houston defense that is the statistically toughest in the last five weeks. The veteran back scored twice in the first matchup, and he's a sound play once again.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Derrick Henry, TEN HOU 301000000 ***
Houston has nothing on the line in this one, so Henry is a sensible place to look for flier points. There is risk involved, but it's Week 17 and time to chance it.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Rishard Matthews, TEN HOU 005600000 *
Matthews was dynamite with Marcus Mariota, but now we have to take a leap of faith that he can get the job done with Matt Cassel for 60 minutes. The Texans provide the 12th best matchup of the week, and Matthews racked up 82 yards on only two catches in Week 4.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN HOU 004400000 *
Sharpe doesn't contribute enough consistently to consider him as anything more that a wild gamble. Houston at least offers a borderline good matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN HOU 004400000 *
Houston is a strong defense of the position, and Walker will be catching balls from Matt Cassel. Walker caught only two of eight targets for 34 yards in the last meeting with Houston.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN HOU 2222 ***
Houston is a bottom-three matchup for the week, and Tennessee's offense really could struggle without Marcus Mariota. This one could go either way since Matt Cassel is usually at least decent.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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