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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: JAC 17, TEN 24 (Line: TEN by 4)

Players to Watch: Jordan Shipley, Justin Blackmon, Chris Johnson

The seasons draws to a close at the bottom of the AFC South with the 2-13 Jaguars heading to Tennessee to face the 5-10 Titans. This is a replay of week 12 when the Jaguars actually beat someone anyone the Titans 24-19. The Jaguars can't run and the Titans can't pass but it is a home game for Tennessee.

Jacksonville Jaguars
Homefield: J'ville Municipal Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @MIN 23-26 ot 10 IND 10-27
2 HOU 7-27 11 @HOU 37-43
3 @IND 22-17 12 TEN 24-19
4 CIN 10-27 13 @BUF 18-34
5 CHI 3-41 14 NYJ 10-17
6 BYE ----- 15 @MIA 3-24
7 @OAK 23-26 16 NE 16-23
8 @GB 15-24 17 @TEN -----
9 DET 14-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 200,1
TE Marcedes Lewis 5-40
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The first year for HC Mike Mularkey could have gone better to be sure but he inherited a mess with the MJD failed holdout and Blaine Gabbert who finally wore out his welcome after two horrible seasons. The addition of Justin Blackmon has been far more successful since Gabbert left in week 11 and the rookie at worst gets an incomplete on his season. Posting 236 yards in one game was a great way to finally show up without Gabbert there to ruin it.

Cecil Shorts had a breakout season of sorts with seven touchdowns and four efforts that topped 100 receiving yards but he has been placed on injured reserve because of his concussion. The duo of Blackmon and Shorts give some optimism to the future.

Maurice Jones-Drew has been questionable for weeks now but never really practices or plays and there is no reason to expect him to show up now and get injured in a very meaningless final game. Rashad Jennings was placed on injured reserve as well with a shoulder injury and a concussion. Without Jones-Drew around, no other runner came close to filling in as well. Montell Owens had two games go over 100 total yards but on the road he never had more than 50 total yards. All combined, this unit only ran in four touchdowns all year.

Chad Henne passed for 261 yards and two scores against the visiting Titans in week 12 but has been far less productive since - especially on the road. His last two efforts away from home never topped 202 pass yards and combined for only one score. With Shorts out, that removes the best receiver from the last meeting. He turned in 105 yards on four catches with one score while Blackmon also scored with 62 yards on five receptions.

This is the end of a bad season and on the road. But Montell Owens should still be a decent start this week against a defense that allowed Jennings to score once and gain 43 rush yards. Blackmon is also worthy of a start as the lone remaining good wideout and he had success just four weeks ago against them.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 25 31 16 28 29 29
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 24 30 21 27 31 27

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Blake Bortles, JAC CLE 0000023012 ***
The Browns aren't a particularly favorable passing game matchup, and Bortles has yet to do enough in his career to warrant a fantasy plug-in here without benefit of a favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Storm Johnson, JAC CLE 5011100000 **
The Browns are far from a shutdown matchup against the run, but nothing in Storm's 2.1 yards per carry in his first NFL start suggest you should go out of your way to get him into your fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Cecil Shorts, JAC CLE 005601000 **
What the heck is wrong with Joe Haden? Four of five WR1s to face the Browns have scored and racked up at least 99 yards. Shorts' 16 targets last week suggest the Jags view him as their WR1, so among Jacksonville's multiple receivers he has the best chance of putting up fantasy numbers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Robinson, JAC CLE 003400000 ***
Robinson took a back seat to Cecil Shorts last week when all of Jacksonville's receivers were (finally) healthy. As the WR2 he should get opportunities, but with no reason not to throw at Joe Haden it's not as advantageous a fantasy position as it's been in the past.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Allen Hurns, JAC CLE 003300000 ***
The Jacksonville receiver rotation is a work in progress, but with everyone healthy for the first time last week Hurns ran a distant third in both targets and productivity. This passing game doesn't offer nearly enough for you to plumb the depths of the receiving corps for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Clay Harbor, JAC CLE 004300000 ***
The Browns have allowed four TE TDs in the past two games, the Jags have scored two in the past three, and Harbor has housed all of the positions' looks over the past two games including last week's 3-91-1 showing. He's a sneaky fantasy helper if you're dealing with Jimmy Graham's injury or Zach Ertz's bye week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Josh Scobee, JAC CLE 2222 ***
Scobee is averaging less than five points per outing; you can do better.

Tennessee Titans
Homefield: LP Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 NE 13-34 10 @MIA 37-3
2 @SD 10-38 11 BYE -----
3 DET 44-41 12 @JAC 19-24
4 @HOU 14-38 13 HOU 10-24
5 @MIN 7-30 14 @IND 23-27
6 PIT 26-23 15 NYJ 14-10
7 @BUF 35-34 16 @GB 7-55
8 IND 13-19 17 JAC -----
9 CHI 20-51 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 30 190,1
RB Jackie Battle 50 1-10
RB Shonn Greene 80,1
RB Dexter McCluster 5-30
WR Kris Durham 2-30
WR Nate Washington 4-50
WR Kendall Wright 2-30
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans are winding down another bad season but at least there was some progress made. Chris Johnson was so bad in 2011 that there were reasonable questions about whether he had been used up in his quest to gain 2000 yards. Even earlier this year he was throwing the offensive line under the proverbial bus as to why he was unable to get loose beyond the line of scrimmage for one of his trademarked long runs.

Finally in week four he ran for 141 yards in Houston and since has mostly been good. He's been unproductive in four or five games but all were either on the road or at home against the same Texans he burned in week four. He has only five touchdowns on the year but eight times turned in over 100 total yards including a season best 195 yards and two scores in Buffalo. Johnson ran for 80 yards on 21 runs in Jacksonville. He added 29 yards on two catches as well.

Kendall Wright is expected back after missing last week because of his ribs. The rookie started the year out nicely and scored four touchdowns but his stat line took a major decrease after week six when Kenny Britt began to be featured much more - at the expense of Wright. In the first meeting with the Jags, Wright gained 48 yards on five catches and Britt accounted for three receptions for 25 yards and one touchdown. Washington had his normal 54 yards on four catches.

With Jared Cook on injured reserve, Craig Stevens only had one catch before getting a concussion last week in Green Bay.

This should be a very nice game for Johnson against a defense that has only been getting worse and more so when they are on the road. The last six road opponents for the Jags all threw at least two touchdowns against them but Locker only scored once on his 261 yards in Jacksonville in a game they threw more while trying to catch up.

Johnson is a must start here but the others are only marginal plays. I do like the chance for a defensive score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 20 30 20 18 24 17
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 21 31 18 10 32 19

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Charlie Whitehurst, TEN @WAS 0000021021 ***
Update: Whitehurst took most of the first-team reps in practice this week, and with Jake Locker questionable it looks like another start for Charlie. It's a favorable matchup with a Redskins defense that's allowed multiple touchdown passes in four straight, so if you're scrambling for QB help this week you may have found your guy.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Jake Locker, TEN @WAS 00000000 *
Nice timing for Locker to send Charlie Whitehurst back to clipboard duty, as the Redskins have allowed multiple touchdown passes in four straight. Might be aggressive to ask that of Locker first game back, though that's what Carson Palmer did last week.
Update: Locker is listed as questionable and practiced on a limited basis all week. He'll probably be a game time decision, and a betting man would take Charlie Whitehurst to start this wee.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bishop Sankey, TEN @WAS 7002200000 **
More was expected of Sankey in last week's favorable matchup. Now, with Shonn Greene potentially returning to swipe touches at three yards per, Sankey returns to tease duty. Doesn't help that this is far from a favorable matchup, against a Washington D that's allowed just two RB TDs on the year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Shonn Greene, TEN @WAS 00000000 *
Green is barely startable in favorable matchups, and this certainly isn't one. Plus, it's only a matter of time until Ken Whisenhunt realizes what everyone else on the planet sees: he's just not that good.
Update: Greene is listed as doubtful for this tilt due to a hamstring injury, so the Whisenator will just have to find other guys to torment Bishop Sankey's fantasy owners with. Jackie Battle, anyone?
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Justin Hunter, TEN @WAS 003401000 **
Yes, Hunter's hit or miss. But those hit odds are better this week against a secondary that's allowed 10 different receivers to score and/or top 75 yards this year.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Kendall Wright, TEN @WAS 005500000 ****
Wright's a volume receiver, so his getting one target against the Jaguars last week is disconcerting to say the least. Until his volume is restored he can't be banked on for meaningful fantasy contributions.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Delanie Walker, TEN @WAS 005601000 ****
Walker may be the Titans' most reliable pass-catcher, and while he hasn't been a major fantasy factor the past couple of weeks he gets a bump against a Washington defense that's only a couple weeks removed from giving up four TE TDs in one game.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Ryan Succop, TEN @WAS 1122 ***
Succop has exceded five points exactly twice this season; play the odds and get your kicks elsewhere.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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