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David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: KC 10, DEN 24 (Line: DEN by 16)

Players to Watch: Jamaal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, Ronnie Hillman

The Broncos can clinch a first round bye with a win here and if the Texans were to lose as well, the Broncos become the #1 seed. The 2-13 Chiefs once again narrowly miss the playoffs and seek to improve their 1-6 road record this year. This game is hard to call because you cannot be sure when the Broncos feel comfortable enough to pull back the reins a bit but with a 16 point spread, common sense says this game should be a blowout of some measure. The Chiefs last two road games combined for a total of just seven points. The Broncos last two home games total 65 points.

This is a replay of week 12 when the Broncos won 17-9 in Kansas City.

Kansas City Chiefs
Homefield: Arrowhead Stadium
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 ATL 24-40 10 @PIT 13-16
2 @BUF 17-35 11 CIN 6-28
3 @NO 27-24 12 DEN 9-17
4 SD 20-37 13 CAR 27-21
5 BAL 6-9 14 @CLE 7-30
6 @TB 10-38 15 @OAK 0-15
7 BYE ----- 16 IND 13-20
8 OAK 16-26 17 @DEN -----
9 @SD 13-31 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass

Pregame Notes: The season concludes in Denver and chances are excellent that a new coaching staff will be in place next season along with some unknown number of players. Most notable will be a new quarterback since the duo of Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn have run their course and end the year with a total of only eight passing touchdowns and only one effort that topped 300 yards - 301 in Buffalo in week two.

The eight passing scores have been accompanied by 20 interceptions thrown and seven lost fumbles. The switch to Brady Quinn in week 11 has resulted in only two touchdowns and both of those came in the same game. Quinn topped out at 201 yards so far and threw for only 126 yards and one interception in the previous meeting with the Broncos.

With Dwayne Bowe out, there is no one to throw it to anyway and even Tony Moeaki remains out with a concussion. Johnathan Baldwin has two catches total over the last three weeks.

The only success all year has been the running of Jamaal Charles who topped 100 yards seven times this year and went over 200 yards twice. As a prime example of the Chiefs sort of year, he ran for 165 yards and one score in Cleveland in week 15 and gained 226 yards just last week. And sandwiched between those was when he gained only ten yards on nine runs in Oakland. Charles has been a great comeback story after tearing up his knee last year and he even ran for 107 yards on 23 carries in the last meeting with the Broncos.

That's going to be hard to count on this week with the Broncos defense hitting a new level in the last month or so. But Charles is the only fantasy play on this team since Dwayne Bowe left. Even on the road, he is always worth a start and has been golden in nearly every game that does not involve the Raiders. With the passing game in shambles now, the Chiefs will rely on the run as much as they can and probably more than they should.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 32 4 32 29 25 32
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 11 5 8 32 4 10

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Alex Smith, KC @NYG 10000032030 ***
Smith comes back from his bye week to face fantasy's best matchup for quarterbacks. New York is the worst team at defending in yardage, points per play, yards per completion, and fantasy points surrendered per contest. The Giants have permitted a touchdown pass every 9.1 completions, which ranks tied fourth.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Kareem Hunt, KC @NYG 8004400000 ***
This is largely a moderate matchup on the ground and through the air. The Giants have not given up a receiving score on the last 20 grabs, but this is the ninth-best matchup for rushing TD frequency. This is the 10th-best matchup for overall yardage production on a weekly basis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Tyreek Hill, KC @NYG 0051001000 ***
Following a week off to recover from some bumps and bruises, Hill gets to face the second-best matchup of Week 11. The Giants have given up six TDs to WRs in the last four games, and only Houston has provided more yardage on a weekly basis.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demarcus Robinson, KC @NYG 003500000 ***
Robinson has seen an uptick in playing time since Chris Conley went down. Wideouts have averaged 13.8 receptions for 215.3 yards and a TD ever 9.2 catches, or 1.5 per game, since Week 5. The Chiefs are coming back from a bye week and could give Robinson a few chances to make a big play. Starting him isn't exactly the safest move one can make, but it could pay off.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Travis Kelce, KC @NYG 0071002000 ***
The Giants have given up a touchdown every game this year to the position. KC comes back from his bye week and takes on a team allowing a TD every four catches by tight ends. This is the second-best matchup in both scoring formats.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Harrison Butker, KC @NYG 3333 ***
All but two of the 22 kicks (both field goals) have made their final destination against the Giants. Despite missing two field goals, 1.5 per game have made it through the pipes. This is a top-12 matchup.

Denver Broncos
Homefield: Invesco Field
Grass
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 PIT 31-19 10 @CAR 36-14
2 @ATL 21-27 11 SD 30-23
3 HOU 25-31 12 @KC 17-9
4 OAK 37-6 13 TB 31-23
5 @NE 21-31 14 @OAK 26-13
6 @SD 35-24 15 @BAL 34-17
7 BYE ----- 16 CLE 34-12
8 NO 34-14 17 KC -----
9 @CIN 31-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Jamaal Charles 60 3-20
WR Emmanuel Sanders 5-70,1
WR Demaryius Thomas 5-80,1

Pregame Notes: The Broncos official word is that they are not going to rest any players and that Peyton Manning will put in a full game. And the reality is that the only thing that matters here is a win which won't be hard to obtain. And the Texans will have already played so that Denver will know if they even have a chance to win more than a first round bye. They are playing the Chiefs at home. This game smacks of players sitting out late in the contest if only Knowshon Moreno and maybe Peyton.

Manning already threw for 285 yards and two scores in Kansas City and has scored in every game this year. Over half of his games contain three passing scores. How much will be needed to beat the Chiefs? The first touchdown alone may do the trick. Manning is always a gamer and wants to play. And if he was hurt in the fourth quarter of a 24-3 game, just how bad would that be?

Moreno had his first start of the year against the Chiefs and ran for 85 yards on 20 carries and caught four passes for 26 yards. He's been a true surprise and his success only illustrates how great it is to play running back for a team with Peyton Manning under center. he is averaging 94 rushing yards per start and 29 more yards as a receiver. Not bad for a guy we thought was so far down the depth chart that he had to share one helmet with two other players.

Ronnie Hillman will likely get at least a few more reps this week and may end up taking over at some point.

Jacob Tamme scored on his four catches for 48 yards in Kansas City and that was his only score all year since the season opener. Demaryius Thomas also scored and ended with 82 yards while Eric Decker caught four passes for 64 yards.

The Broncos want to win this game but that should not be a big problem. The real issue is how reliable can these guys be once they have that two score lead? Against a team that can only has seven points total over their last two road games? More risk here than it may seem.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 9 13 2 8 8 3
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 17 20 16 8 29 30

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Brock Osweiler, DEN CIN 0000023011 ***
There's nothing great about the matchup. The best rating is this is the 15th-easiest team to score a TD against via the pass. Every other notable metric ranks below average.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB C.J. Anderson, DEN CIN 5001100000 ***
A three-way backfield has robbed Anderson of much of his upside for fantasy purposes. The Bengals have been a good source for points via rushing yards and receiving yards, though that is where the fun ends.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Devontae Booker, DEN CIN 2003200000 ***
Cincinnati has yielded the fifth-most yardage a week, but only two of 127 carries has gone the distance in the last four games. Despite the good matchup, Booker should be avoided.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Jamaal Charles, DEN CIN 300000000 ***
There is no viable reason to play Charles, regardless of the matchup. This one just happens to be good.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN CIN 004601000 ***
Thomas scored last week to salvage an otherwise pedestrian effort. The Bengals are a tougher opponent, giving up only 10.5 catches for 130.5 yards to an entire team's worth of wideouts per week. Just three of the last 42 catches have scored.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN CIN 006600000 ***
Sanders put on a clinic in Week 10 and erased any lingering questions about his health. The Bengals, though, provide a stiff test for the veteran. Only three of the last 42 catches over four games have scored. The matchup ranks 21st and 23rd for catches and yardage, respectively, allowed per game.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Bennie Fowler III, DEN CIN 002300000 ***
Fowler is too erratic to trust in fantasy and also has a tough matchup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Brandon McManus, DEN CIN 4411 ***
Cincy has given up averages of 3.25 field goals and 2.25 extra points attempted. All kicks but one FGA have been good. No team is even close in the field goals allowed column. This is the best matchup in fantasy.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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