FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

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Prediction: MIA 13, NE 27 (Line: NE by 10)

Players to Watch: Reggie Bush, Stevan Ridley

The Patriots can win a first round bye with a win here AND a loss by either the Texans (@IND) or the Broncos (vs. KC). The 11-4 Patriots clinched the AFC East several weeks ago and are 5-2 at home. The 7-8 Dolphins are only 2-5 on the road but a win here would give them a .500 season.

This is a replay of week 13 when the Patriots won 23-16 in Miami.

Pregame Notes: The season winds down for first-year head coach Joe Philbin and his offensive coordinator Mike Sherman. It has been a minor success at least in the sense that the Dolphins have already bested their 6-10 season of 2011 and the defense has been better than most realize. Almost half of the games had their opponents held under 20 points. Sadly, almost half their games also only saw the Fins with 17 points or less.

The new offense held true to its word - it did not need a true #1 wideout like Brandon Marshall. At least it never had anything even close to Marshall and it would have been hard to imagine pairing him with the rookie Ryan Tannehill anyway. The Fins passing attack was never more than just a game managing attempt to dink and dunk. Tannehill has only 12 passing touchdowns on the year against 12 interceptions and three lost fumbles. Road games never saw more than one passing score if that. The yardage tended to be sub-200 as well outside of that freakish 431 yard game in Arizona.

Tannehill only passed for 186 yards in New England and scored once on a run.

Reggie Bush is now being reviewed by the Fins who are leaning towards resigning him in the offseason and prevent him from hitting free agency. Bosh comes off a three touchdown game against the Bills and he's been getting around 20 touches for the last three weeks with decent results. Bush only gained 64 yards on 15 runs in the previous Pats meeting. Lamar Miller was allowed ten carries in the big win over the Bills last week and he gained 73 yards but that was his first time over 20 yards in a game since week three.

Davone Bess only caught one pass in the last game with the Pats and is likely to miss this game with a back injury that kept him out the last two games. That leaves only Brian Hartline who had 84 yards on five catches and a couple of practice squadders as the primary receivers. Anthony Fasano did score in two of the last three games but has been little used and only caught one pass against the Pats.

The Pats already won in Miami and are in the running at least for a first round bye. Played in New England makes a huge difference here and the only reasonable fantasy play is Reggie Bush for moderate yardage. The Pats may be weak on defense, but not as weak as the offense for the Fins.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Ryan Tannehill, MIA	@NE	30	0	0	0	0	210	1	1
Tannehill only passed for 186 yards and no scores in the last meeting. On the road, no reason to expect more especially with Bess probably still out.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Brian Hartline, MIA	@NE	0	0	4	60	0	0	0	0
Hartline turned in 5-84 last time vs. the Pats and now Bess is out. That leaves the entire Pats secondary with no one else to worry about.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, MIA	@NE	2	2	1	1
On the road to NE? No thanks.

Pregame Notes: The Patriots are still in the running for a first round bye but need help to get there and that's at least unlikely. But the Patriots have a history of not taking games off for any reason and with the chance for a bye - they'll all be in this game. Perhaps not Rob Gronkowski who has been out since week 11 with a broken forearm. He has been practicing on a limited basis and the Pats we'll never say more than his serial number but he's no better than a game-time decision this week.

Tom Brady actually had his least productive game of the year when he went to Miami and threw only 238 yards and one score. It was his only single touchdown game since week three. Brady has scored in every game this year but has been less productive in recent weeks because the run has worked well. Brady passed for over 300 yards only once in the last four games.

Now that Brandon Bolden is back, Shane Vereen apparently went tumbling back on the depth chart. But throw in Danny Woodhead in with the constant of Steven Ridley and the backfield is always changing from week to week at least in who relieves Ridley and takes third down duty. Ridley was on a six game scoring streak until the 49ers showed up and he bounced back in week 16 with 84 yards on 18 carries in Jacksonville.

Ridley is the only reliable part of the backfield and ran for 71 yards and a score on 19 carries in Miami this year.

Aaron Hernandez had his season best 97 yards on eight catches in the Miami game and more encouraging is that he's scored in both of the most recent home games.

Since Julian Edelman left, Brandon Lloyd has regained fantasy value with at least 60 yards in each game and a score in the home game versus the Texans. Wes Welker caught 12 passes for 103 yards and one score in Miami as he usually does when he faces his old team. The Patriots will take this game with a balanced approach but the Dolphins are likely to struggle on offense and with a lower score of the opponent, Brady and the passing effort won't have to work too hard against a decent secondary.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST)	TEAM	QB	RB	WR	TE	PK	DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points	NE	3	2	13	1	1	2
Preventing Fantasy Points	MIA	15	6	13	11	21	18

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
QB Tom Brady, NE	MIA	0	0	0	0	0	280	2	0
Brady is always a must start anyway but he settled for only 238 yards and one score in Miami this year. He's a lock for solid yardage and at least one score but this is less likely to become a monster game.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
RB Stevan Ridley, NE	MIA	80	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ridley will share the workload with the other three runners but he - and he alone - is consistent and productive enough to merit a start. Ridley already had 19-71 and a TD in Miami and should be good for more this week depending on the whims of Bill Belichick who may want to rest Ridley a little this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Danny Amendola, NE	MIA	0	0	5	40	0	0	0	0
Amendola will be the main focus of the defense that only allowed two TDs to visiting wideouts this year and rarely more than 50 yards. His last two road games combined for only three catches and 43 yards so leave Amendola on your bench this week.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
WR Michael Jenkins, NE	MIA	0	0	3	40	0	0	0	0
Jenkins is a great downfield blocker and reliable short-game target, but he's turned neither into much in the way of fantasy contributions this year.

	Opp	RuYD	RuTD	Rec	ReYD	ReTD	PaYD	PaTD	Int	ConFac
TE Aaron Hernandez, NE	MIA	0	0	7	90	0	0	0	0
Hernandez caught eight passes for 97 yards versus the Fins this year and should end up taking the tight end workload alone again this week. Always a safe start but Fins have only allowed two scores to the position all year.

	Opp	fga	FGM	xpa	XPM	ConFac
K Stephen Gostkowski, NE	MIA	2	2	3	3
At home versus the Fins has to be at least average points at worse.

WEEK 17 2012	ARI at SF	CLE at PIT	JAC at TEN	OAK at SD
	BAL at CIN	DAL at WAS	KC at DEN	PHI at NYG
	CAR at NO	GB at MIN	MIA at NE	STL at SEA
	CHI at DET	HOU at IND	NYJ at BUF	TB at ATL

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