FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: NYJ 20, BUF 17 (Line: BUF by 3.5)

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Shonn Greene

This battle to the bottom of the AFC East is a replay of the season opener when the Jets won 48-28 and the world was still simple and full of hope and even Tim Tebow was happy. Now it is just the last game in a bad season for two teams. Chan Gailey is likely to lose his job within 24 hours of the game but Rex Ryan may survive. This is just a messy game to call and to forecast like pretty much every other these two teams have done this year. The Jets have won this matchup for the last six meetings.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN 10-14
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD 17-27
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Michael Vick 30,1 260,1
RB Chris Johnson 110,1 1-10
RB Bilal Powell 60,1 3-20
WR Eric Decker 6-70,1
WR T.J. Graham 3-40
WR Jeremy Kerley 3-40
TE Jeff Cumberland 4-40
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The offense is bound to look new next year if only by getting back the scores of injured players. The speculation is that the OC Tony Sparano will be the sacrificial lamb and get fired despite trying to make do with nothing more than Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene and a revolving door at wideout.

Greg McElroy tried to hide his concussion from the medical staff but finally admitted it on Thursday morning. That choice was no doubt tough since he may have only one start in his career now. Mark Sanchez is back, knowing that they preferred Greg McElroy over him but at least they still won't use Tim Tebow.

Back in the season opener, Sanchez passed for a season best three touchdowns and 266 yards. Oh would that have only lasted. He's thrown only ten more scores over the next 13 games that he played. The Bills almost always allow one passing score though most teams focus on hurting them with the run. They are ranked #32 against running backs and in that is where the Jets will have their success.

Shonn Greene enjoyed one of his better games when he rushed for 94 yards and a score on 27 carries in the season opener. He's plugged along all year and now is joined in tandem with Bilal Powell. With such a shaky situation at quarterback and Dustin Keller expected to miss this game as well, the Jets will rely heavily on the pair of backs. The Bills have already allowed 21 scores to running backs this year.

There are no great fantasy plays here but Greene is a moderate start mainly from the favorable matchup and even Powell could produce a better stat line this week as well. This is going to be a cold game with a chance of snow.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 18 29 20 31 19
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 27 32 14 14 14 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Geno Smith, NYJ @TEN 30000018000 ***
The Titans have held seven of their last eight opponents to one or fewer passing TD; not that you'd be looking to plug Geno and his one-TD upside into your fantasy lineup anyway.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Johnson, NYJ @TEN 11013200000 **
You could argue that CJ?K has been the more productive Jets back over the past month-plus, and even while sharing the workload he's poised to capitalize on an extremely favorable matchup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Chris Ivory, NYJ @TEN 7011100000 **
The Titans have allowed five of the last six feature backs they've faced to rush for at least 100 yards and a touchdown. Ivory might be splitting touches with Chris Johnson right down the middle, but all that means is multiple opportunities for fantasy helpers here.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @TEN 006700000 ***
With the shocking development of yet another Percy Harvin injury, Decker is poised to take over as the Jets' WR1. Of course, having a quarterback would help. Bottom line, there's not enough to like about this passing game to warrant serious fantasy consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jeremy Kerley, NYJ @TEN 003400000 ***
Geno Smith can barely keep this passing game afloat; you don't want to be trolling the dregs of the depth chart looking for fringe fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Jace Amaro, NYJ @TEN 002200000 ***
Amaro is still dealing with concussion issues, so make sure he's active before you plug him into your fantasy lineup.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @TEN 2222 ***
Rare that you'd hear "this is a good week to use Nick Folk"... well, ever. But here it is. The Titans have allowed at least three PATs in six straight games and five field goals in two of the last three, as well as six games of double-digit points. Even with the Jags mustering just two points in Tennessee the Titans are giving up almost 11 points per game at home. Folk booted five treys last week and should benefit again from a defense that struggles to stop foes and an offense that can get close but can't finish.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC 34-18
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL 12-15
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA 17-50
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA 10-24
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB C.J. Spiller 120,1 4-30
WR Mike Williams 5-70,1
TE Lee Smith 2-20
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills are expected to fire Chan Gailey and revamp the offense in the offseason to include finding a new starting quarterback. For the second year in a row, Ryan Fitzpatrick started out red hot for the first month or so and they just rapidly declined. He passed for 12 touchdowns in the first four weeks and then only 11 more in the last 11 games. That includes four times where he did not score. Gailey has stood behind Fitzpatrick but the return just has not been there and will be one reason why Gailey is out. That and a 15-31 record so far.

Fitzpatrick passed for 195 yards and three scores in the opener in New York.

Another facet sure to change will be at tailback. C.J. Spiller opened the year with 169 yards and one score on 14 runs against the Jets. But he is ending with six different games that limited him to fewer than ten carries. He is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and yet only ran 183 times this year.

Fred Jackson ran 115 times and he only played in nine games and averaged 3.8 yards per carry. At least Gailey has stated he has no intention on trying out young players in this meaningless game. That means Spiller remains a very viable option along with Steve Johnson who also scored in the season opener and gained 55 yards.

Scott Chandler has been placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL

Spiller is the only attractive start here and should have a nice game against a defense that has allowed a score and 100+ yards to the running backs of the last four toad teams. Stevie Johnson is always a low-level starter who rarely tops 70 yards in a game but is the only remaining receiver even capable of such. Knowing that the team is about to be torn up will have some effect on the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 8 27 13 26 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 5 24 2 17 15 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Kyle Orton, BUF GB 0000024022 ***
Orton has fallen off the fantasy pace; his only multiple passing score game in the past five weeks came against the hapless Jets secondary. He did rush for a score against Denver to salvage his fantasy line, and he'll likely be forced into a similar throwing scenario against Green Bay this week. The Pack has allowed multiple TDs in four straight overall and four straight on the road, so consider Orton a fringe option if you're scouring the depths for fantasy help.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Fred Jackson, BUF GB 4003200000 ***
There aren't many fantasy helpers among Buffalo's backfield stat lines this season, nor are there many against Green Bay since their Week 9 bye. The best bet might be some receiving yards and a goal line opportunity, making Jackson a fringe fantasy option at best.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Anthony Dixon, BUF GB 300000000 ***
Dixon's touches are in decline with Fred Jackson back in the mix. He wasn't doing enough with them when they were more copious and he's unlikely to reverse that trend against the Packers this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Sammy Watkins, BUF GB 006801000 **
The Packers have allowed multiple WR TDs in each of their last four games, but the receivers who tend to have the most success against them are big-bodied guys (Brandon Marshall, Jordan Matthews, Brandon LaFell, Julio Jones). Not that Watkins can't do some damage, but don't look for him to match Julio's 11-259-1 from last week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Chris Hogan, BUF GB 002201000 **
Hogan has found the end zone each of the previous two games, though it's tough to say whether or not he's overtaken Robert Woods for wingman duties. The likely scenario is Buffalo needing to throw another 57 times to keep up with the Packers offense, which definitely opens the door for Hogan to make a fantasy splash.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Woods, BUF GB 005700000 ***
Woods has been an inconsistent contributor, following up 9-118-1 against the Jet with 4-71 and 3-36 the past two weeks. That's not trending the right way, and with Chris Hogan stealing touchdowns each of the past two games it's tough to bank on Woods for fantasy help--even if Kyle Orton throws another 57 passes this week.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Scott Chandler, BUF GB 003300000 ***
The Packers have kept tight ends out of the end zone in 12 of 13 games this year, so Chandler's best bet is yardage. He posted 8-81 last week, which roughly matched his combined output of the previous six games; that's nowhere near a consistency that would bump Chandler into fantasy usability.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF GB 1122 ***
You don't beat the Packers kicking field goals; only one team has attempted more than two against them all year. There are certainly scenarios where the Bills play great defense and keep this one close, but they'll need more TDs than treys so Carpenter's upside is limited.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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