FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: NYJ 20, BUF 17 (Line: BUF by 3.5)

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Shonn Greene

This battle to the bottom of the AFC East is a replay of the season opener when the Jets won 48-28 and the world was still simple and full of hope and even Tim Tebow was happy. Now it is just the last game in a bad season for two teams. Chan Gailey is likely to lose his job within 24 hours of the game but Rex Ryan may survive. This is just a messy game to call and to forecast like pretty much every other these two teams have done this year. The Jets have won this matchup for the last six meetings.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN 10-14
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD 17-27
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Matt Forte 80,1 5-30
RB Bilal Powell 60,1 3-20
WR Jeremy Kerley 3-40

Pregame Notes: The offense is bound to look new next year if only by getting back the scores of injured players. The speculation is that the OC Tony Sparano will be the sacrificial lamb and get fired despite trying to make do with nothing more than Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene and a revolving door at wideout.

Greg McElroy tried to hide his concussion from the medical staff but finally admitted it on Thursday morning. That choice was no doubt tough since he may have only one start in his career now. Mark Sanchez is back, knowing that they preferred Greg McElroy over him but at least they still won't use Tim Tebow.

Back in the season opener, Sanchez passed for a season best three touchdowns and 266 yards. Oh would that have only lasted. He's thrown only ten more scores over the next 13 games that he played. The Bills almost always allow one passing score though most teams focus on hurting them with the run. They are ranked #32 against running backs and in that is where the Jets will have their success.

Shonn Greene enjoyed one of his better games when he rushed for 94 yards and a score on 27 carries in the season opener. He's plugged along all year and now is joined in tandem with Bilal Powell. With such a shaky situation at quarterback and Dustin Keller expected to miss this game as well, the Jets will rely heavily on the pair of backs. The Bills have already allowed 21 scores to running backs this year.

There are no great fantasy plays here but Greene is a moderate start mainly from the favorable matchup and even Powell could produce a better stat line this week as well. This is going to be a cold game with a chance of snow.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 18 29 20 31 19
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 27 32 14 14 14 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Josh McCown, NYJ @OAK 10000020012 *
No one should be desperate enough to play McCown in Week 2 (insert any number).
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Bilal Powell, NYJ @OAK 4006300000 ***
Powell should command the bulk of this backfield's work most weeks, and he may be especially targeted if the Raiders jump out to a big lead. PPR gamers have an attractive flex.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @OAK 2003200000 ***
Old, slow and just a guy, Forte has no place in a fantasy lineup.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jermaine Kearse, NYJ @OAK 005601000 **
Kearse is off to a quality start in a Jets uniform. The sheer volume of targets in this passing game make the former Seahawk a demonstrably productive asset.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robby Anderson, NYJ @OAK 004400000 ***
Oakland gave up 16 WR catches without a score last week, which was the best ratio in the league. It was the fourth most receptions. There is little reason to chance a traditional lineup spot with Anderson. DFS only.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR ArDarius Stewart, NYJ @OAK 002300000 ***
The rookie has a bright future but doesn't warrant fantasy lineup inclusion in Week 2.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Will Tye, NYJ @OAK 003200000 ***
Tye shouldn't be owned in any fantasy format.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Chandler Catanzaro, NYJ @OAK 2211 ***
Avoid Catanzaro. The Jets just don't have the firepower to make him a worthwhile choice, regardless of the matchup.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC 34-18
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL 12-15
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA 17-50
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA 10-24
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB LeSean McCoy 90,1 5-30
PK Stephen Hauschka 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills are expected to fire Chan Gailey and revamp the offense in the offseason to include finding a new starting quarterback. For the second year in a row, Ryan Fitzpatrick started out red hot for the first month or so and they just rapidly declined. He passed for 12 touchdowns in the first four weeks and then only 11 more in the last 11 games. That includes four times where he did not score. Gailey has stood behind Fitzpatrick but the return just has not been there and will be one reason why Gailey is out. That and a 15-31 record so far.

Fitzpatrick passed for 195 yards and three scores in the opener in New York.

Another facet sure to change will be at tailback. C.J. Spiller opened the year with 169 yards and one score on 14 runs against the Jets. But he is ending with six different games that limited him to fewer than ten carries. He is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and yet only ran 183 times this year.

Fred Jackson ran 115 times and he only played in nine games and averaged 3.8 yards per carry. At least Gailey has stated he has no intention on trying out young players in this meaningless game. That means Spiller remains a very viable option along with Steve Johnson who also scored in the season opener and gained 55 yards.

Scott Chandler has been placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL

Spiller is the only attractive start here and should have a nice game against a defense that has allowed a score and 100+ yards to the running backs of the last four toad teams. Stevie Johnson is always a low-level starter who rarely tops 70 yards in a game but is the only remaining receiver even capable of such. Knowing that the team is about to be torn up will have some effect on the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 8 27 13 26 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 5 24 2 17 15 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF @CAR 30000023011 **
Traveling to Carolina, Taylor is a shaky play in any setup. The Bills simply don't have the weaponry to instill any confidence in fantasy owners to start Taylor.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF @CAR 8016500000 ***
Shady is the Bills offense at this point. There is no reason to deviate from him in any regular format. His DFS appeal may be a little lower than usual this week, however.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Jordan Matthews, BUF @CAR 005601000 **
Trusting Matthews will be the biggest hurdle in this one. He had little time to develop any rapport with Tyrod Taylor, and the matchup isn't friendly. That said, this is an optimistic projection. Treat him as a flier.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Zay Jones, BUF @CAR 003400000 **
Volume will carry Jones' fantasy worth in PPR leagues, but there just isn't much of it in this offense. Toss in a tough matchup and Jones is a shaky consideration.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Andre Holmes, BUF @CAR 002200000 ***
Holmes' only fantasy value comes when he finds the end zone, which is a fool's bet.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF @CAR 005400000 ***
Clay isn't much of a volume target for the Bills, even though this offense sorely lacks weapons. There isn't much going on here without a TD reception, so view Clay as more of the "all or nothing" type in fantasy. Carolina gave up five short receptions to the position last week.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Stephen Hauschka, BUF @CAR 0022 ***
Caroline permitted San Fran just a field goal in Week 1. Hauschka is a fair choice in most formats.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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