FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

Prediction: NYJ 20, BUF 17 (Line: BUF by 3.5)

Players to Watch: C.J. Spiller, Shonn Greene

This battle to the bottom of the AFC East is a replay of the season opener when the Jets won 48-28 and the world was still simple and full of hope and even Tim Tebow was happy. Now it is just the last game in a bad season for two teams. Chan Gailey is likely to lose his job within 24 hours of the game but Rex Ryan may survive. This is just a messy game to call and to forecast like pretty much every other these two teams have done this year. The Jets have won this matchup for the last six meetings.

New York Jets
Homefield: Meadowlands Stadium
FieldTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 BUF 48-28 10 @SEA 7-28
2 @PIT 10-27 11 @STL 27-13
3 @MIA 23-20 12 NE 19-49
4 SF 0-34 13 ARI 7-6
5 HOU 17-23 14 @JAC 17-10
6 IND 35-9 15 @TEN 10-14
7 @NE 26-29 16 SD 17-27
8 MIA 9-30 17 @BUF -----
9 BYE ----- ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 210,1
RB Matt Forte 80,1 5-30
RB Bilal Powell 60,1 3-20
WR Eric Decker 6-70,1
WR Brandon Marshall 8-120,1
TE Kellen Davis 2-20
PK Nick Folk 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The offense is bound to look new next year if only by getting back the scores of injured players. The speculation is that the OC Tony Sparano will be the sacrificial lamb and get fired despite trying to make do with nothing more than Mark Sanchez, Shonn Greene and a revolving door at wideout.

Greg McElroy tried to hide his concussion from the medical staff but finally admitted it on Thursday morning. That choice was no doubt tough since he may have only one start in his career now. Mark Sanchez is back, knowing that they preferred Greg McElroy over him but at least they still won't use Tim Tebow.

Back in the season opener, Sanchez passed for a season best three touchdowns and 266 yards. Oh would that have only lasted. He's thrown only ten more scores over the next 13 games that he played. The Bills almost always allow one passing score though most teams focus on hurting them with the run. They are ranked #32 against running backs and in that is where the Jets will have their success.

Shonn Greene enjoyed one of his better games when he rushed for 94 yards and a score on 27 carries in the season opener. He's plugged along all year and now is joined in tandem with Bilal Powell. With such a shaky situation at quarterback and Dustin Keller expected to miss this game as well, the Jets will rely heavily on the pair of backs. The Bills have already allowed 21 scores to running backs this year.

There are no great fantasy plays here but Greene is a moderate start mainly from the favorable matchup and even Powell could produce a better stat line this week as well. This is going to be a cold game with a chance of snow.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 30 18 29 20 31 19
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 27 32 14 14 14 24

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, NYJ @KC 20000024011 ***
Fitz may rack up the yardage but struggle to put the ball into the end zone ... sound familiar? KC has permitted the eighth most fantasy points to quarterbacks through two games, sponsored by two touchdowns allowed in total.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB Matt Forte, NYJ @KC 9013200000 ***
Forte has been a beast through two games, coming off a three-TD performance in Week 2. He's probably not 100 percent healthy, but that isn't of terrible concern. KC has given up 248 total rushing and 58 aerial yards with three combined trips to paydirt.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Eric Decker, NYJ @KC 005901000 ***
Marcus Peters probably will follow Decker around, which doesn't matter too much since Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn't shy away from gambling. The Chiefs have allowed a ton of yards (392) on 28 grabs and only one score vs. WRs.

In the event Brandon Marshall doesn't play -- which appears to be the case -- Decker will see doubles and draw the best corner (Marcus Peters). Limit your expectations ... WR3-ish.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Quincy Enunwa, NYJ @KC 006700000 ***
Enunwa emerged nicely through two games and is a real talent. He may not do so well against a higher level of competition without Brandon Marshall, though. Play him as a PPR flex to err on the side of caution. KC has granted only one touchdown to WRs this season.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Nick Folk, NYJ @KC 2222 ***
Kansas City has permitted six field goals on eight kicks, ranking third among the most forgiving defenses against the position.

Buffalo Bills
Homefield: Ralph Wilson Stadium
AstroTurf
  Opp Score   Opp Score
1 @NYJ 28-48 10 @NE 31-37
2 KC 35-17 11 MIA 19-14
3 @CLE 24-14 12 @IND 13-20
4 NE 28-52 13 JAC 34-18
5 @SF 3-45 14 STL 12-15
6 @ARI 19-16 15 SEA 17-50
7 TEN 34-35 16 @MIA 10-24
8 BYE ----- 17 NYJ -----
9 @HOU 9-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Reggie Bush 60 2-20
RB LeSean McCoy 90,1 5-30
PK Dan Carpenter 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills are expected to fire Chan Gailey and revamp the offense in the offseason to include finding a new starting quarterback. For the second year in a row, Ryan Fitzpatrick started out red hot for the first month or so and they just rapidly declined. He passed for 12 touchdowns in the first four weeks and then only 11 more in the last 11 games. That includes four times where he did not score. Gailey has stood behind Fitzpatrick but the return just has not been there and will be one reason why Gailey is out. That and a 15-31 record so far.

Fitzpatrick passed for 195 yards and three scores in the opener in New York.

Another facet sure to change will be at tailback. C.J. Spiller opened the year with 169 yards and one score on 14 runs against the Jets. But he is ending with six different games that limited him to fewer than ten carries. He is averaging 6.5 yards per carry and yet only ran 183 times this year.

Fred Jackson ran 115 times and he only played in nine games and averaged 3.8 yards per carry. At least Gailey has stated he has no intention on trying out young players in this meaningless game. That means Spiller remains a very viable option along with Steve Johnson who also scored in the season opener and gained 55 yards.

Scott Chandler has been placed on injured reserve with a torn ACL

Spiller is the only attractive start here and should have a nice game against a defense that has allowed a score and 100+ yards to the running backs of the last four toad teams. Stevie Johnson is always a low-level starter who rarely tops 70 yards in a game but is the only remaining receiver even capable of such. Knowing that the team is about to be torn up will have some effect on the game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 21 8 27 13 26 23
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 5 24 2 17 15 29

  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
QB Tyrod Taylor, BUF ARI 20000020001 ***
Taylor erupted with big plays in Week 2, but this go of it won't be as easy. He takes on a Cardinals' pass defense that ranks ninth against the position, allowing only 17.7 fantasy points per game. Only daily gamers can consider him a viable option.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
RB LeSean McCoy, BUF ARI 6014200000 ***
Don't sit your studs, but be cautious with McCoy. First of all, the matchup looks brutal on paper. Only four teams have allowed fewer fantasy points to RBs. The matchup looks much worse than it is after Doug Martin went down in Week 2. LeGarrette Blount mustered 70 yards and a TD in the opener.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Marquise Goodwin, BUF ARI 002400000 ***
The home run Goodwin clobbered in Week 2 is the only reason he is in the fantasy conversation at this point. Avoid him in all traditional setups, even though Arizona is a sound matchup. DFS only.

Update: The expected loss of Sammy Watkins this week means more looks for Goodwin, but he's largely a one-trick pony. As previously noted, DFS only.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Robert Woods, BUF ARI 004400000 ***
With all of the attention on Sammy Watkins, Woods may see an increased target count. Play him if you are truly desperate or looking for a DFS gamble. The Cardinals have allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game to the position so far, and garbage-time points could be a real scenario here.

Update: Sammy Watkins (foot) is a game-time decision and not expected to go ... bump up Woods based on the sheer volume increase, but he's still a barely worthy play in most situations.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
WR Greg Salas, BUF ARI 003400000 ***
Buffalo's slot receiver can spring up now and again, but fantasy owners shouldn't look his way due to a lack of consistency and targets.

Update: Sammy Watkins and Charles Clay are both questionable. Salas might see more looks, if it matters, although he, too, is listed as as questionable with a groin strain. Clay and Salas were limited practice participants Friday.
  Opp RuYDRuTDRecReYDReTDPaYDPaTDInt ConFac
TE Charles Clay, BUF ARI 004400000 ***
Arizona faced two teams with tight end issues so far, resulting in this D giving up only eight catches for 44 yards. Clay isn't involved enough to warrant consideration, but he is a big-play guy, so a TD is not a crazy expectation.

Update: Clay is questionable but practiced in a limited fashion Friday. He may be hampered, but the uncertain nature of Sammy Watkins' playing time opens the door for Clay to see more targets. Tread cautiously.
  Opp fgaFGMxpaXPM ConFac
K Dan Carpenter, BUF ARI 3311 ***
Buffalo's offense is just good enough in this matchup to give Carpenter several chances from downtown.

WEEK 17
2012
ARI at SF CLE at PIT JAC at TEN OAK at SD
BAL at CIN DAL at WAS KC at DEN PHI at NYG
CAR at NO GB at MIN MIA at NE STL at SEA
  CHI at DET HOU at IND NYJ at BUF TB at ATL

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