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Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Quarterbacks
David Dorey
April 22, 2013
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2012 Passing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
NO 29.6 @CHI 18.1
CLE 25.1 @CLE 17.9
@TB 25.0 @DEN 17.8
TB 24.7 CIN 17.5
WAS 24.1 @CIN 17.3
NYG 23.4 @BAL 17.1
@NE 23.3 DAL 17.0
NE 23.1 CAR 17.0
@MIN 22.8 NYJ 17.0
OAK 22.6 BAL 16.9
@WAS 22.6 ARI 16.5
PHI 22.5 @ATL 16.3
@NO 22.5 @NYJ 16.3
SF 22.4 PIT 16.3
MIN 22.3 SEA 16.3
@KC 22.3 CHI 16.2
@TEN 22.1 @ARI 15.5
JAC 22.0 @PIT 13.7
SD 21.9 @SEA 13.4
TEN 21.8 @SF 12.9

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

This analysis awards 0.1 points per rushed yard and 0.05 points per passed yard. Touchdowns are worth four points.

Best Schedules

Peyton Manning - This doesn't seem very fair since Manning needs no help and even gets Wes Welker into the fold this season. He's worthy of a top quarterback pick considering half his games go against defenses from the 20 best matchups of 2012 and just once does he have a matchup that could be considered bad by last year's standards.

Tony Romo - Not only did Romo manage to remain healthy in an even-numbered season finally, he saw Dez Bryant and Jason Witten end up as tops in their positions. Now he only has to face one bad defensive matchup all year and seven times gets the easier schedule. He got paid big in the off-season and now has a chance to make good on his King's ransom.

Alex Smith - While he won't merit consideration as a fantasy starter, a new team and a great schedule should make Smith a viable option for a fantasy backup. He has actual upside this year for maybe the first time since his rookie season.

Worst Schedules

Matt Stafford - While he has Megatron there to help him remain better than his schedule, Stafford will have to work at repeating his success of the last two years. The Lions end up with worst schedule of all quarterbacks facing eight different defensive venues in the worst 20 of 2012.

Christian Ponder - Trading Percy Harvin for Greg Jennings may or may not be an upgrade but with a bad schedule that includes ending the fantasy season with games in Baltimore and Cincinnati means he won't help at the end if you were forced to use him.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)
  SOS Good Bad
DEN 7 8 1
DAL 6 7 1
KC 4 6 2
OAK 3 6 3
CAR 3 7 4
NYJ 3 7 4
NYG 2 5 3
SD 2 5 3
ATL 2 6 4
PHI 2 6 4
SEA 2 6 4
HOU 1 5 4
WAS 1 5 4
IND 0 4 4
JAC 0 4 4
SF 0 4 4
CHI 0 5 5
GB 0 5 5
ARI -1 3 4
TB -1 4 5
MIA -1 5 6
STL -1 5 6
TEN -2 3 5
CIN -3 3 6
NE -3 3 6
CLE -3 4 7
BAL -4 3 7
BUF -4 3 7
MIN -4 3 7
NO -4 3 7
PIT -4 3 7
DET -4 4 8
Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)
  SOS Good Bad
DAL 3 3 0
SEA 3 3 0
OAK 3 4 1
DEN 2 3 1
KC 2 3 1
PHI 2 3 1
WAS 1 1 0
ATL 1 2 1
NYG 1 2 1
CHI 1 3 2
NYJ 1 3 2
TB 1 3 2
BAL 0 1 1
SD 0 1 1
ARI 0 2 2
CAR 0 2 2
NO 0 2 2
STL 0 2 2
CLE -1 1 2
IND -1 1 2
MIA -1 1 2
DET -1 2 3
NE -1 2 3
PIT -1 2 3
JAC -2 0 2
SF -2 0 2
CIN -2 1 3
GB -2 1 3
HOU -2 1 3
MIN -2 1 3
TEN -2 1 3
BUF -4 1 5
Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad
BAL 2 2 0
DEN 2 2 0
NYJ 2 2 0
BUF 1 1 0
JAC 1 1 0
KC 1 1 0
TB 1 1 0
CAR 1 2 1
SD 1 2 1
STL 1 2 1
HOU 0 0 0
ARI 0 1 1
ATL 0 1 1
CIN 0 1 1
DAL 0 1 1
DET 0 1 1
IND 0 1 1
MIA 0 1 1
NE 0 1 1
PHI 0 1 1
SF 0 1 1
GB -1 0 1
NO -1 0 1
NYG -1 0 1
OAK -1 0 1
PIT -1 0 1
CLE -1 1 2
MIN -1 1 2
CHI -2 0 2
SEA -2 0 2
TEN -2 0 2
WAS -2 0 2

Week - By - Week

TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI @STL DET @NO @TB CAR @SF SEA ATL bye HOU @JAC IND @PHI STL @TEN @SEA
ATL @NO STL @MIA NE NYJ bye TB @ARI @CAR SEA @TB NO @BUF @GB WAS @SF
BAL @DEN CLE HOU @BUF @MIA GB @PIT bye @CLE CIN @CHI NYJ PIT MIN @DET NE
BUF NE CAR @NYJ BAL @CLE CIN @MIA @NO KC @PIT NYJ bye ATL @TB @JAC MIA
CAR SEA @BUF NYG bye @ARI @MIN STL @TB ATL @SF NE @MIA TB @NO NYJ NO
CHI CIN MIN @PIT @DET NO NYG @WAS bye @GB DET BAL @STL @MIN DAL @CLE @PHI
CIN @CHI PIT GB @CLE NE @BUF @DET NYJ @MIA @BAL CLE bye @SD IND @PIT MIN
CLE MIA @BAL @MIN CIN BUF DET @GB @KC BAL bye @CIN PIT JAC @NE CHI @NYJ
DAL NYG @KC STL @SD DEN WAS @PHI @DET MIN @NO bye @NYG OAK @CHI GB @WAS
DEN BAL @NYG OAK PHI @DAL JAC @IND WAS bye @SD KC @NE @KC TEN SD @HOU
DET MIN @ARI @WAS CHI @GB @CLE CIN DAL bye @CHI @PIT TB GB @PHI BAL NYG
GB @SF WAS @CIN bye DET @BAL CLE @MIN CHI PHI @NYG MIN @DET ATL @DAL PIT
HOU @SD TEN @BAL SEA @SF STL @KC bye IND @ARI OAK JAC NE @JAC @IND DEN
IND OAK MIA @SF @JAC SEA @SD DEN bye @HOU STL @TEN @ARI TEN @CIN HOU @KC
JAC KC @OAK @SEA IND @STL @DEN SD SF bye @TEN ARI @HOU @CLE HOU BUF TEN
KC @JAC DAL @PHI NYG @TEN OAK HOU CLE @BUF bye @DEN SD DEN @WAS @OAK IND
MIA @CLE @IND ATL @NO BAL bye BUF @NE CIN @TB SD CAR @NYJ @PIT NE @BUF
MIN @DET @CHI CLE PIT bye CAR @NYG GB @DAL WAS @SEA @GB CHI @BAL PHI @CIN
NE @BUF NYJ TB @ATL @CIN NO @NYJ MIA PIT bye @CAR DEN @HOU CLE @MIA @BAL
NO ATL @TB ARI MIA @CHI @NE bye BUF @NYJ DAL SF @ATL @SEA CAR @STL @CAR
NYG @DAL DEN @CAR @KC PHI @CHI MIN @PHI bye OAK GB DAL @WAS @SD SEA @DET
NYJ TB @NE BUF @TEN @ATL PIT NE @CIN NO bye @BUF @BAL MIA OAK @CAR CLE
OAK @IND JAC @DEN WAS SD @KC bye PIT PHI @NYG @HOU TEN @DAL @NYJ KC @SD
PHI @WAS SD KC @DEN @NYG @TB DAL NYG @OAK @GB WAS bye ARI DET @MIN CHI
PIT TEN @CIN CHI @MIN bye @NYJ BAL @OAK @NE BUF DET @CLE @BAL MIA CIN @GB
SD HOU @PHI @TEN DAL @OAK IND @JAC bye @WAS DEN @MIA @KC CIN NYG @DEN OAK
SEA @CAR SF JAC @HOU @IND TEN @ARI @STL TB @ATL MIN bye NO @SF @NYG ARI
SF GB @SEA IND @STL HOU ARI @TEN @JAC bye CAR @NO @WAS STL SEA @TB ATL
STL ARI @ATL @DAL SF JAC @HOU @CAR SEA TEN @IND bye CHI @SF @ARI NO TB
TB @NYJ NO @NE ARI bye PHI @ATL CAR @SEA MIA ATL @DET @CAR BUF SF @STL
TEN @PIT @HOU SD NYJ KC @SEA SF bye @STL JAC IND @OAK @IND @DEN ARI @JAC
WAS PHI @GB DET @OAK bye @DAL CHI @DEN SD @MIN @PHI SF NYG KC @ATL DAL


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