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Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Receivers with Reception Points
David Dorey
April 22, 2013
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2012 Passing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
NO 62.0 @MIA 42.2
CLE 59.2 @GB 42.2
WAS 58.1 ARI 42.2
@TB 57.0 @CLE 42.0
NE 55.6 DAL 41.9
@MIN 54.3 @STL 41.9
@WAS 52.4 NYJ 41.0
IND 52.3 @CIN 40.6
@DET 52.1 @BUF 40.6
TB 51.8 KC 40.5
@TEN 51.4 BAL 40.2
MIA 51.3 @DEN 39.5
@DAL 50.4 @ARI 39.3
@BAL 50.0 CIN 38.2
@NE 49.8 @PIT 38.0
HOU 49.4 @NYJ 37.7
DEN 49.3 SEA 37.2
TEN 49.2 CAR 35.4
NYG 48.4 @SEA 35.1
BUF 48.2 @SF 33.6

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

This analysis considers both tight ends and wide receivers awarded 0.1 points per received yard and six point touchdowns along with one point per reception.

Best Schedules

Jets - Adding in reception points doesn't change the fact that the Jets have one of the worst passing offenses and yet the best schedule for receivers. This still looks like a colossal waste unless the Jets bring in new players. Make that new and better players.

Cowboys - Dez Bryant still looks like a decent bet this year with a schedule better than he has faced in his entire career. He seems to have "gotten it" and now the Schedule Gods have smiled. And Jason Witten's value with reception points look just as good as last year.

Chiefs - This could be interesting. Maybe Alex Smith is better than we think. Maybe Dwayne Bowe just needed a quarterback who wasn't a product of one lucky year in the Patriots system. At least they both get a schedule that offers up seven matchups against one of the 20 best matchups from last year.

Worst Schedules

Bills - Like the non-reception point version, it looks uphill for the new offense and new quarterback in Buffalo. Steve Johnson's best quality is that there doesn't appear anyone else worth throwing the ball to this year. And maybe defenses might realize that as well.

Titans - Still looks bad for Kenny Britt even with reception points and Kendall Wright was already being limited by the apparent need for Jake Locker to concentrate on Britt.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)
  SOS Good Bad
NYJ 7 9 2
DAL 5 5 0
GB 4 6 2
KC 4 7 3
DEN 2 4 2
NYG 2 4 2
HOU 2 5 3
SD 2 6 4
IND 1 5 4
MIN 1 5 4
NE 1 6 5
OAK 0 3 3
STL 0 4 4
CIN 0 5 5
CLE 0 5 5
PHI 0 5 5
SF 0 5 5
TB 0 5 5
CAR 0 6 6
PIT 0 6 6
SEA -1 3 4
WAS -1 3 4
ARI -1 4 5
JAC -1 5 6
NO -2 4 6
ATL -2 5 7
CHI -2 5 7
BAL -3 4 7
MIA -3 4 7
DET -4 3 7
TEN -6 1 7
BUF -6 3 9
Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)
  SOS Good Bad
NYJ 4 4 0
DAL 3 3 0
CLE 3 4 1
NYG 2 2 0
NO 2 3 1
SD 2 3 1
SEA 1 1 0
KC 1 2 1
MIN 1 2 1
CHI 1 3 2
DEN 0 1 1
OAK 0 1 1
STL 0 1 1
WAS 0 1 1
GB 0 2 2
HOU 0 2 2
PHI 0 2 2
PIT 0 2 2
TB 0 2 2
ATL -1 1 2
CIN -1 1 2
IND -1 1 2
BAL -1 2 3
CAR -1 2 3
NE -1 2 3
SF -1 2 3
MIA -2 0 2
ARI -2 1 3
DET -2 1 3
JAC -3 1 4
TEN -4 0 4
BUF -4 1 5
Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad
JAC 3 3 0
BAL 2 2 0
BUF 2 2 0
KC 2 2 0
DAL 1 1 0
DEN 1 1 0
GB 1 1 0
HOU 1 1 0
NYJ 1 1 0
PHI 1 1 0
NE 1 2 1
STL 1 2 1
ARI 0 1 1
CAR 0 1 1
CIN 0 1 1
CLE 0 1 1
DET 0 1 1
IND 0 1 1
MIN 0 1 1
NYG 0 1 1
SD 0 1 1
SF 0 1 1
TB 0 1 1
ATL -1 1 2
MIA -1 1 2
PIT -1 1 2
CHI -2 0 2
NO -2 0 2
OAK -2 0 2
SEA -2 0 2
TEN -2 0 2
WAS -2 0 2

Week - By - Week

TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI @STL DET @NO @TB CAR @SF SEA ATL bye HOU @JAC IND @PHI STL @TEN @SEA
ATL @NO STL @MIA NE NYJ bye TB @ARI @CAR SEA @TB NO @BUF @GB WAS @SF
BAL @DEN CLE HOU @BUF @MIA GB @PIT bye @CLE CIN @CHI NYJ PIT MIN @DET NE
BUF NE CAR @NYJ BAL @CLE CIN @MIA @NO KC @PIT NYJ bye ATL @TB @JAC MIA
CAR SEA @BUF NYG bye @ARI @MIN STL @TB ATL @SF NE @MIA TB @NO NYJ NO
CHI CIN MIN @PIT @DET NO NYG @WAS bye @GB DET BAL @STL @MIN DAL @CLE @PHI
CIN @CHI PIT GB @CLE NE @BUF @DET NYJ @MIA @BAL CLE bye @SD IND @PIT MIN
CLE MIA @BAL @MIN CIN BUF DET @GB @KC BAL bye @CIN PIT JAC @NE CHI @NYJ
DAL NYG @KC STL @SD DEN WAS @PHI @DET MIN @NO bye @NYG OAK @CHI GB @WAS
DEN BAL @NYG OAK PHI @DAL JAC @IND WAS bye @SD KC @NE @KC TEN SD @HOU
DET MIN @ARI @WAS CHI @GB @CLE CIN DAL bye @CHI @PIT TB GB @PHI BAL NYG
GB @SF WAS @CIN bye DET @BAL CLE @MIN CHI PHI @NYG MIN @DET ATL @DAL PIT
HOU @SD TEN @BAL SEA @SF STL @KC bye IND @ARI OAK JAC NE @JAC @IND DEN
IND OAK MIA @SF @JAC SEA @SD DEN bye @HOU STL @TEN @ARI TEN @CIN HOU @KC
JAC KC @OAK @SEA IND @STL @DEN SD SF bye @TEN ARI @HOU @CLE HOU BUF TEN
KC @JAC DAL @PHI NYG @TEN OAK HOU CLE @BUF bye @DEN SD DEN @WAS @OAK IND
MIA @CLE @IND ATL @NO BAL bye BUF @NE CIN @TB SD CAR @NYJ @PIT NE @BUF
MIN @DET @CHI CLE PIT bye CAR @NYG GB @DAL WAS @SEA @GB CHI @BAL PHI @CIN
NE @BUF NYJ TB @ATL @CIN NO @NYJ MIA PIT bye @CAR DEN @HOU CLE @MIA @BAL
NO ATL @TB ARI MIA @CHI @NE bye BUF @NYJ DAL SF @ATL @SEA CAR @STL @CAR
NYG @DAL DEN @CAR @KC PHI @CHI MIN @PHI bye OAK GB DAL @WAS @SD SEA @DET
NYJ TB @NE BUF @TEN @ATL PIT NE @CIN NO bye @BUF @BAL MIA OAK @CAR CLE
OAK @IND JAC @DEN WAS SD @KC bye PIT PHI @NYG @HOU TEN @DAL @NYJ KC @SD
PHI @WAS SD KC @DEN @NYG @TB DAL NYG @OAK @GB WAS bye ARI DET @MIN CHI
PIT TEN @CIN CHI @MIN bye @NYJ BAL @OAK @NE BUF DET @CLE @BAL MIA CIN @GB
SD HOU @PHI @TEN DAL @OAK IND @JAC bye @WAS DEN @MIA @KC CIN NYG @DEN OAK
SEA @CAR SF JAC @HOU @IND TEN @ARI @STL TB @ATL MIN bye NO @SF @NYG ARI
SF GB @SEA IND @STL HOU ARI @TEN @JAC bye CAR @NO @WAS STL SEA @TB ATL
STL ARI @ATL @DAL SF JAC @HOU @CAR SEA TEN @IND bye CHI @SF @ARI NO TB
TB @NYJ NO @NE ARI bye PHI @ATL CAR @SEA MIA ATL @DET @CAR BUF SF @STL
TEN @PIT @HOU SD NYJ KC @SEA SF bye @STL JAC IND @OAK @IND @DEN ARI @JAC
WAS PHI @GB DET @OAK bye @DAL CHI @DEN SD @MIN @PHI SF NYG KC @ATL DAL


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