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Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Receivers
David Dorey
April 22, 2013
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2012 Passing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
NO 43.1 @DEN 25.8
CLE 38.2 @ARI 25.8
WAS 37.4 @GB 25.7
@TB 37.3 DAL 25.7
NE 35.9 @MIA 25.7
@WAS 34.4 @CHI 25.6
@DET 34.1 STL 25.6
TB 33.8 NYJ 25.4
@MIN 33.5 @BUF 25.2
TEN 33.3 @NYJ 25.2
HOU 33.1 @JAC 24.9
IND 32.8 BAL 24.9
@DAL 32.8 @STL 24.9
@NE 32.4 CIN 24.5
@TEN 32.4 SEA 23.3
NYG 31.9 @CIN 23.1
@PHI 31.4 CAR 22.9
MIA 31.3 @PIT 22.1
@NYG 31.2 @SEA 20.3
DEN 31.2 @SF 20.1

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

This analysis considers both tight ends and wide receivers awarded 0.1 points per received yard and six point touchdowns.

Best Schedules

Jets - It seems somewhat of a waste to give such a great schedule to one of the worst offenses from last year. This could mean that a nice surprise is in store for Clyde Gates or Stephen Hill. Or a player to be named later. Mostly seems like a waste until the offense shows improvement.

Cowboys - A bad rushing schedule makes this look ever better. Dez Bryant suddenly turned into a stud halfway through last year and now a nice schedule makes his star shine no less as brightly. The question is if it means Miles Austin has any chance to redeem himself.

Broncos - Peyton Manning had nice success with Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker last year. Now Wes Welker is added into the mix while the Broncos only face one of the worst 20 defensive matchups of 2012. Just one. Maybe there will be enough throwing here to make both Welker and Thomas into a top ten receiver.

Worst Schedules

Titans - The worst part of the Titans' schedule is not that they have to face six bad matchups, it is that they only get a league-wide low of one game against one of the 20 best matchups from 2012. Kenny Britt has trouble enough staying out of trouble and being healthy.

Bills - Half of their games go against one of the worst 20 matchups from last year and Kevin Kolb has to learn a new offense and gain chemistry with Steve Johnson who still is not Larry Fitzgerald. And Kolb never made Fitz look that great with a nice schedule.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)
  SOS Good Bad
NYJ 5 7 2
DAL 5 7 2
DEN 4 5 1
GB 4 6 2
KC 4 8 4
PHI 3 6 3
NYG 2 5 3
OAK 2 4 2
SD 2 7 5
JAC 1 4 3
SEA 1 4 3
STL 1 4 3
WAS 1 4 3
CHI 0 6 6
MIN 0 5 5
NE 0 5 5
TB 0 4 4
CAR -1 6 7
CIN -1 4 5
HOU -1 4 5
IND -1 5 6
SF -1 5 6
PIT -1 4 5
CLE -2 3 5
ARI -2 5 7
BAL -3 4 7
DET -3 4 7
ATL -3 5 8
MIA -3 3 6
NO -3 3 6
BUF -5 3 8
TEN -5 1 6
Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)
  SOS Good Bad
NYJ 3 3 0
SD 3 4 1
DAL 2 3 1
PHI 2 3 1
NO 2 3 1
SEA 1 1 0
STL 1 1 0
DEN 1 2 1
NYG 1 2 1
TB 1 2 1
CLE 1 2 1
KC 1 3 2
CHI 1 3 2
OAK 0 1 1
WAS 0 1 1
MIN 0 2 2
SF 0 2 2
PIT 0 2 2
MIA -1 0 1
GB -1 1 2
CIN -1 1 2
DET -1 1 2
NE -1 2 3
CAR -1 2 3
BAL -1 2 3
JAC -2 1 3
HOU -2 1 3
IND -2 1 3
ARI -2 1 3
ATL -2 1 3
TEN -3 0 3
BUF -3 1 4
Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad
KC 2 2 0
JAC 2 2 0
BAL 2 2 0
NYJ 1 1 0
DEN 1 1 0
GB 1 1 0
PHI 1 1 0
STL 1 2 1
DET 1 2 1
BUF 1 2 1
DAL 0 1 1
NYG 0 1 1
SD 0 1 1
SEA 0 1 1
CHI 0 1 1
NE 0 1 1
CAR 0 1 1
CIN 0 1 1
HOU 0 1 1
IND 0 1 1
SF 0 1 1
CLE 0 1 1
OAK -1 0 1
WAS -1 0 1
MIN -1 0 1
TB -1 0 1
PIT -1 1 2
ARI -1 1 2
ATL -1 1 2
MIA -1 1 2
NO -2 0 2
TEN -2 0 2

Week - By - Week

TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI @STL DET @NO @TB CAR @SF SEA ATL bye HOU @JAC IND @PHI STL @TEN @SEA
ATL @NO STL @MIA NE NYJ bye TB @ARI @CAR SEA @TB NO @BUF @GB WAS @SF
BAL @DEN CLE HOU @BUF @MIA GB @PIT bye @CLE CIN @CHI NYJ PIT MIN @DET NE
BUF NE CAR @NYJ BAL @CLE CIN @MIA @NO KC @PIT NYJ bye ATL @TB @JAC MIA
CAR SEA @BUF NYG bye @ARI @MIN STL @TB ATL @SF NE @MIA TB @NO NYJ NO
CHI CIN MIN @PIT @DET NO NYG @WAS bye @GB DET BAL @STL @MIN DAL @CLE @PHI
CIN @CHI PIT GB @CLE NE @BUF @DET NYJ @MIA @BAL CLE bye @SD IND @PIT MIN
CLE MIA @BAL @MIN CIN BUF DET @GB @KC BAL bye @CIN PIT JAC @NE CHI @NYJ
DAL NYG @KC STL @SD DEN WAS @PHI @DET MIN @NO bye @NYG OAK @CHI GB @WAS
DEN BAL @NYG OAK PHI @DAL JAC @IND WAS bye @SD KC @NE @KC TEN SD @HOU
DET MIN @ARI @WAS CHI @GB @CLE CIN DAL bye @CHI @PIT TB GB @PHI BAL NYG
GB @SF WAS @CIN bye DET @BAL CLE @MIN CHI PHI @NYG MIN @DET ATL @DAL PIT
HOU @SD TEN @BAL SEA @SF STL @KC bye IND @ARI OAK JAC NE @JAC @IND DEN
IND OAK MIA @SF @JAC SEA @SD DEN bye @HOU STL @TEN @ARI TEN @CIN HOU @KC
JAC KC @OAK @SEA IND @STL @DEN SD SF bye @TEN ARI @HOU @CLE HOU BUF TEN
KC @JAC DAL @PHI NYG @TEN OAK HOU CLE @BUF bye @DEN SD DEN @WAS @OAK IND
MIA @CLE @IND ATL @NO BAL bye BUF @NE CIN @TB SD CAR @NYJ @PIT NE @BUF
MIN @DET @CHI CLE PIT bye CAR @NYG GB @DAL WAS @SEA @GB CHI @BAL PHI @CIN
NE @BUF NYJ TB @ATL @CIN NO @NYJ MIA PIT bye @CAR DEN @HOU CLE @MIA @BAL
NO ATL @TB ARI MIA @CHI @NE bye BUF @NYJ DAL SF @ATL @SEA CAR @STL @CAR
NYG @DAL DEN @CAR @KC PHI @CHI MIN @PHI bye OAK GB DAL @WAS @SD SEA @DET
NYJ TB @NE BUF @TEN @ATL PIT NE @CIN NO bye @BUF @BAL MIA OAK @CAR CLE
OAK @IND JAC @DEN WAS SD @KC bye PIT PHI @NYG @HOU TEN @DAL @NYJ KC @SD
PHI @WAS SD KC @DEN @NYG @TB DAL NYG @OAK @GB WAS bye ARI DET @MIN CHI
PIT TEN @CIN CHI @MIN bye @NYJ BAL @OAK @NE BUF DET @CLE @BAL MIA CIN @GB
SD HOU @PHI @TEN DAL @OAK IND @JAC bye @WAS DEN @MIA @KC CIN NYG @DEN OAK
SEA @CAR SF JAC @HOU @IND TEN @ARI @STL TB @ATL MIN bye NO @SF @NYG ARI
SF GB @SEA IND @STL HOU ARI @TEN @JAC bye CAR @NO @WAS STL SEA @TB ATL
STL ARI @ATL @DAL SF JAC @HOU @CAR SEA TEN @IND bye CHI @SF @ARI NO TB
TB @NYJ NO @NE ARI bye PHI @ATL CAR @SEA MIA ATL @DET @CAR BUF SF @STL
TEN @PIT @HOU SD NYJ KC @SEA SF bye @STL JAC IND @OAK @IND @DEN ARI @JAC
WAS PHI @GB DET @OAK bye @DAL CHI @DEN SD @MIN @PHI SF NYG KC @ATL DAL

 



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