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Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule: Running Backs with Reception Points
David Dorey
April 22, 2013
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2012 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
@NO 31.9 MIA 20.0
KC 28.5 DET 19.6
@JAC 28.4 @DET 19.4
CAR 28.0 @IND 19.2
@CLE 27.7 NE 18.9
IND 27.5 @WAS 18.8
@CIN 27.5 CHI 18.7
NO 26.9 SF 18.6
@TEN 26.8 NYG 18.3
TB 25.9 @ARI 17.9
TEN 25.7 DEN 17.9
@OAK 25.7 @CHI 17.8
ATL 25.5 @MIN 17.8
@ATL 25.4 @KC 17.7
@BUF 25.3 @SEA 17.5
OAK 24.4 @DEN 17.1
BUF 24.3 @HOU 16.6
@STL 23.9 @SF 16.1
SD 23.7 HOU 15.3
JAC 23.6 @PIT 12.1

Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns and one point per reception.

Best Schedules

Jets - Same as the non-reception point version, the Jets have the most attractive schedule for running backs no matter the scoring. Mike Goodson may be walking into a golden opportunity but then again nothing in the Jets offense so far have suggested that a stud is going to found at any position.

Dolphins - Daniel Thomas is in line for a bigger workload with Reggie Bush gone and he gets almost half his games against the weaker defenses and just three times goes against one of the worst matchups. Another one worth tracking this summer.

49ers - Same as the non-reception point version and the niners get the same nice schedule strength that the Fins have only with a far better defense. That usually means even more rushing success and Frank Gore gets to try to throw some bigger numbers onto his already franchise record career.

Worst Schedules

Ravens - Ray Rice comes off a some-what disappointing season and there is no secret about Bernard Pierce's growing role in the offense that comes at the expense of Rice. Add in facing six bad matchups and only two of the best ones and Rice probably won't be the draft darling he was last season. Weeks 15 and 16 are both bad and that's when you want him the most.

Cowboys - Bad enough that DeMarco Murray has all the durability of a fluorescent light tube left out on the playground, but he gets a distinctly worse schedule that he had in 2012 when he broke your heart anyway. He won't get a good matchup until week ten and by then who knows what injury he'll be nursing.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)
  SOS Good Bad
NYJ 6 8 2
MIA 4 7 3
SF 4 7 3
JAC 4 9 5
BUF 3 6 3
ARI 3 7 4
DEN 2 5 3
NE 2 5 3
TB 2 6 4
KC 2 7 5
ATL 1 4 3
NO 1 5 4
PIT 1 5 4
SEA 1 6 5
TEN 1 7 6
OAK 0 4 4
CAR 0 5 5
CIN -1 3 4
HOU -1 5 6
SD -1 5 6
STL -1 5 6
MIN -2 2 4
CLE -2 3 5
WAS -2 4 6
IND -2 5 7
GB -3 2 5
CHI -3 3 6
PHI -3 3 6
NYG -4 1 5
BAL -4 2 6
DAL -4 2 6
DET -4 2 6
Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)
  SOS Good Bad
NE 5 5 0
NYJ 4 4 0
DEN 2 2 0
KC 2 3 1
MIA 2 3 1
SD 2 3 1
JAC 2 4 2
TB 1 1 0
BUF 1 2 1
ARI 1 3 2
ATL 0 1 1
HOU 0 1 1
WAS 0 1 1
CIN 0 2 2
IND 0 2 2
PHI 0 2 2
PIT 0 2 2
SF 0 2 2
STL 0 2 2
BAL -1 1 2
GB -1 1 2
MIN -1 1 2
NO -1 1 2
OAK -1 2 3
SEA -1 2 3
TEN -1 2 3
CAR -2 1 3
CHI -2 1 3
CLE -2 1 3
DET -2 1 3
DAL -3 0 3
NYG -3 0 3
Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad
CAR 2 2 0
NO 2 2 0
WAS 2 2 0
CHI 1 1 0
GB 1 1 0
MIN 1 1 0
NYJ 1 1 0
OAK 1 1 0
SF 1 1 0
DEN 1 2 1
JAC 1 2 1
KC 1 2 1
STL 1 2 1
TB 1 2 1
NE 0 0 0
ARI 0 1 1
BUF 0 1 1
CIN 0 1 1
TEN 0 1 1
ATL -1 0 1
CLE -1 0 1
DET -1 0 1
NYG -1 0 1
PIT -1 0 1
SEA -1 0 1
HOU -1 1 2
IND -1 1 2
MIA -1 1 2
SD -1 1 2
BAL -2 0 2
DAL -2 0 2
PHI -3 0 3

Week - By - Week

TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI @STL DET @NO @TB CAR @SF SEA ATL bye HOU @JAC IND @PHI STL @TEN @SEA
ATL @NO STL @MIA NE NYJ bye TB @ARI @CAR SEA @TB NO @BUF @GB WAS @SF
BAL @DEN CLE HOU @BUF @MIA GB @PIT bye @CLE CIN @CHI NYJ PIT MIN @DET NE
BUF NE CAR @NYJ BAL @CLE CIN @MIA @NO KC @PIT NYJ bye ATL @TB @JAC MIA
CAR SEA @BUF NYG bye @ARI @MIN STL @TB ATL @SF NE @MIA TB @NO NYJ NO
CHI CIN MIN @PIT @DET NO NYG @WAS bye @GB DET BAL @STL @MIN DAL @CLE @PHI
CIN @CHI PIT GB @CLE NE @BUF @DET NYJ @MIA @BAL CLE bye @SD IND @PIT MIN
CLE MIA @BAL @MIN CIN BUF DET @GB @KC BAL bye @CIN PIT JAC @NE CHI @NYJ
DAL NYG @KC STL @SD DEN WAS @PHI @DET MIN @NO bye @NYG OAK @CHI GB @WAS
DEN BAL @NYG OAK PHI @DAL JAC @IND WAS bye @SD KC @NE @KC TEN SD @HOU
DET MIN @ARI @WAS CHI @GB @CLE CIN DAL bye @CHI @PIT TB GB @PHI BAL NYG
GB @SF WAS @CIN bye DET @BAL CLE @MIN CHI PHI @NYG MIN @DET ATL @DAL PIT
HOU @SD TEN @BAL SEA @SF STL @KC bye IND @ARI OAK JAC NE @JAC @IND DEN
IND OAK MIA @SF @JAC SEA @SD DEN bye @HOU STL @TEN @ARI TEN @CIN HOU @KC
JAC KC @OAK @SEA IND @STL @DEN SD SF bye @TEN ARI @HOU @CLE HOU BUF TEN
KC @JAC DAL @PHI NYG @TEN OAK HOU CLE @BUF bye @DEN SD DEN @WAS @OAK IND
MIA @CLE @IND ATL @NO BAL bye BUF @NE CIN @TB SD CAR @NYJ @PIT NE @BUF
MIN @DET @CHI CLE PIT bye CAR @NYG GB @DAL WAS @SEA @GB CHI @BAL PHI @CIN
NE @BUF NYJ TB @ATL @CIN NO @NYJ MIA PIT bye @CAR DEN @HOU CLE @MIA @BAL
NO ATL @TB ARI MIA @CHI @NE bye BUF @NYJ DAL SF @ATL @SEA CAR @STL @CAR
NYG @DAL DEN @CAR @KC PHI @CHI MIN @PHI bye OAK GB DAL @WAS @SD SEA @DET
NYJ TB @NE BUF @TEN @ATL PIT NE @CIN NO bye @BUF @BAL MIA OAK @CAR CLE
OAK @IND JAC @DEN WAS SD @KC bye PIT PHI @NYG @HOU TEN @DAL @NYJ KC @SD
PHI @WAS SD KC @DEN @NYG @TB DAL NYG @OAK @GB WAS bye ARI DET @MIN CHI
PIT TEN @CIN CHI @MIN bye @NYJ BAL @OAK @NE BUF DET @CLE @BAL MIA CIN @GB
SD HOU @PHI @TEN DAL @OAK IND @JAC bye @WAS DEN @MIA @KC CIN NYG @DEN OAK
SEA @CAR SF JAC @HOU @IND TEN @ARI @STL TB @ATL MIN bye NO @SF @NYG ARI
SF GB @SEA IND @STL HOU ARI @TEN @JAC bye CAR @NO @WAS STL SEA @TB ATL
STL ARI @ATL @DAL SF JAC @HOU @CAR SEA TEN @IND bye CHI @SF @ARI NO TB
TB @NYJ NO @NE ARI bye PHI @ATL CAR @SEA MIA ATL @DET @CAR BUF SF @STL
TEN @PIT @HOU SD NYJ KC @SEA SF bye @STL JAC IND @OAK @IND @DEN ARI @JAC
WAS PHI @GB DET @OAK bye @DAL CHI @DEN SD @MIN @PHI SF NYG KC @ATL DAL


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