Want to understand the game better, hunt for future break out players or try to spot trouble before it happens? “Beyond TDs and Tackles” will be offering a handful of players and situations that you should consider when you are watching the games or even just looking at the box score. Everyone knows which players blew up over the weekend but you can gain advantages by following the changes as they start and get better definition on how to value players. Have any questions? Just hit me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL or email me at firstname.lastname@example.org.
With the Browns deciding to split up with Trent Richardson and trade him to the Colts, I thought we should take a look at some of his career splits and situational stats.
4th Quarter - 44 carries, 114 yards & 2.6 YPC (2 TDs)
4th Quarter within 7 points - 33 carries, 93 yards & 2.8 YPC (1 TD)
Lead: 107 carries, 277 yards & 2.6 YPC (3 TDs)
Behind: 133 carries, 496 yards & 3.7 YPC (5 TDs)
Tied: 58 carries, 232 yards & 4.0 YPC (3 TDs)
Lead: 9.3% (10) of his carries with the lead went for a first down.
Behind: 14.3% (19) of his carries while behind went for a 1st down.
Tied: 17.2% (10) of his carries while tied went for a 1st down.
Grass: 194 carries, 657 yards & 3.4 YPC (8 TDs)
Turf: 104 carries, 398 yards & 3.8 YPC (3 TDs)
Losses: 194 carries, 697 yards & 3.6 YPC (6 TDs)
Wins: 105 carries, 358 yards & 3.4 YPC (5 TDs)
The biggest thing I take away from the above numbers is that Richardson will need to be much, MUCH better in the fourth quarter for the Colts. The other is that his YPC is extremely low on runs with the lead. That too, will need to be much improved for the Colts. The last thing I’ll say about the Richardson deal is that I am 99.99% sure that Colts owner Jim Irsay owns Richardson in his local country club fantasy league and wanted to improve both his fantasy and NFL teams.
While we’re at it, let’s take a look at some of Adrian Peterson’s situational stats from this year versus last year’s.
Yards Per Carry Average By Half
2012: first Half: 5.9
2012: 2nd Half: 5.9
2013: 1st Half: 7.0
2013: 2nd Half: 2.4
Yards Per Carry Average By Quarter
2012: 1st quarter: 5.4
2012: 2nd quarter: 6.7
2012: 3rd quarter: 5.8
2012: 4th quarter: 6.0
2012: 4th quarter within 7: 6.9
2013: 1st quarter: 9.6
2013: 2nd quarter: 4.7
2013: 3rd quarter: 2.9
2013: 4th quarter: 1.8
2013: 4th quarter within 7: 1.7
In 2012, 24.9% (92) of Peterson’s carries went for a 1st down, and so far, in 2013, only 15.9% (7) have gone for first downs.
I have no problem owning what I say on the radio, write in articles or in our forums, and I’ve said and written that you shouldn’t expect much from T.Y. Hilton. Well, the NFL is fluid and things change and I can admit when I was wrong or need to move off of a stance. The coaching staff said they wanted to get Hilton more touches, and they did. In week one he had 20 receiving yards on three catches, but in week 2 he tallied 124 receiving yards – get this – on six catches – three more touches than he had in week 1. Technically the Colts did get him more touches, but it’s not like they force fed him the ball. His additional three touches aren’t what has me changing my tune, no, it’s the fact he played in 104% more snaps – 49 in week 2 vs 24 in week 1. The other thing is the loss of Dwayne Allen for the season. However, that doesn’t mean you should blindly proceed with Hilton. What you need to keep an eye on is to see how many snaps he plays and now that the Colts have acquired Trent Richardson what happens with his targets – 5 in week 1 and 12 in week 2.
Official Scorer Alert: London Fletcher and Perry Riley will be playing at home in Washington this week. They combined for 28 tackles (7 assists each) when they last played at home in week 1. The Patriots (vs Buccaneers), Panthers (vs Giants) and Bengals (vs Packers) home scorers are liberal with assisted tackles too, so Jerod Mayo, Lavonte David, Mark Barron, Luke Kuechly, Thomas Davis, Justin Tuck, Vontaze Burfict, Geno Atkins, Rey Maualuga, and Brad Jones all have a favorable scorer in their corner this weekend. On the other side of the spectrum, the 49ers (vs Colts) and Dolphins (vs Falcons) scorers are stingy with assisted tackles and that limits the upside of Navorro Bowman, Patrick Willis, Jerrell Freeman, Pat Angerer, LaRon Landry, Dannell Ellerbe, Akeem Dent, William Moore and Joplo Bartu this week.
I’m not sure how many people know this, but tackles are not an official NFL statistic. That doesn’t mean that IDP owners don’t complain about a scorer assigning a tackle to the wrong player or giving players like Ray Lewis – when he was playing – phantom assists just for being on the pile. Note: Only sacks and turnovers are eligible for statistic changes. If you lose a game because a LB didn’t get a tackle that you saw him make, don’t expect to see it in the stat changes that week. It’s easy to knock the official scorers when we have the advent of slo-mo and DVRing a play. Here’s a video quiz that you can take to see how difficult the official scorers job really is.
Julio Jones caught 11 passes for 182 yards with a touchdown last week AT HOME. Prior to last week Jones had never had more than 6 catches in a game at the Georgia Dome, and yardage wise he only had one previous 100 yard receiving game. His 35.20 fantasy points far outpaced his 9.5 PPG average at home. This week he’s on the road, and on the road he has a 21.21 PPG average. Looking forward, after this week Jones next three games are all at home. I’ll be paying very close attention to how he plays at home in that three game stretch. While we are looking forward take note that three of his final four games are on the road to close out the fantasy season – week 16 is at San Francisco.
Robert Griffin III might be rusty and not playing like Superman, but his number one WR, Pierre Garcon has gotten off to one heck of a start in 2013. Back in week 1 I said to pay attention to Garcon’s targets. After two weeks he’s been targeted 24 times which ties him for 5th most in the league. While we are on Washington’s passing game, I should point out that Fred Davis started week 2 at TE, but he was benched after playing just 16 snaps (2 targets). That allowed rookie Jordan Reed to get on the field for 29 snaps (3 targets). In training camp Reed had some impressive catches. Keep an eye on Davis’ playing time and how much time Jordan gets going forward. He could be a waiver wire steal.
Last week Frank Gore ran the ball 9 times for 16 yards in Seattle. Last year, in week 9, Adrian Peterson carried the ball 17 times for 182 yards with 2 TDs when the Vikings traveled to Seattle to play the Seahawks. Outside of that game, at home, in their last 8 games, the Seahawks have allowed the oppositions primary running back to run the ball 92 times for 295 yards ( 3.2 YPC) with zero TDs. This week Maurice Jones-Drew and the Jaguars visit Seattle. MJD is nursing an injury so he might not even play, but quite honestly, it doesn’t even matter. The Seahawks defense is downright nasty – especially at home – and fantasy wise when Chris Johnson (week 6) and Doug Martin (week 9) head to Seattle in a few weeks you’d be best served to reserve their spot on your bench now. As for Adrian Peterson, the Seahawks will look to keep him in check in week 11.