FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 4
Steve Gallo
September 27, 2013
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Want to understand the game better, hunt for future break out players or try to spot trouble before it happens? “Beyond TDs and Tackles”  will be offering  a handful of players and situations that you should consider when you are watching the games or even just looking at the box score. Everyone knows which players blew up over the weekend but you can gain advantages by following the changes as they start and get better definition on how to value players. Have any questions? Just hit me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL or email me at gallo@thehuddle.com.

What’s wrong with Dwayne Bowe? In the eyes of the 3-0 Chiefs, absolutely nothing is wrong. However, for fantasy owners there’s plenty wrong. One thing, which is the most concerning to me is that Greg Cosell said that Bowe looks like a slow moving tight end. If that’s the case, and if Cosell says so, I believe it because he’s one of the best in the game. But that aside, another thing contributing to Bowe’s current struggles is the lack of deep throws by Alex Smith. The chart below does a good job showing where the Chiefs are throwing the ball. Additionally, you can see how they rank in attempts, average gain and completion percentage. As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words.

Passing Offense

What’s up with the Washington defense? Their secondary, namely the safety position, is a huge problem for Washington. The safety position is so bad, that last week, against the pass happy Lions, they played 3 CBs and 1 safety for much of the game. Normally you would pull a LB in favor of a corner when you play nickel. The deep middle of the field is an issue, but it’s not the only issue. Washington is getting gashed in the short middle of the field too – looks like the effects of the Fountain of Youth are wearing off of London Fletcher. The following  chart paints a grim picture, unless you’re starting a WR against Washington.  Psst...45% of Denarius Moore’s targets have come in the middle of the field.  He’s converted those targets into 7 catches for 142 yards and 2 touchdowns. If you’re curious about Rod Streater, he’s logged 6 catches for 75 yards on 9 targets in the middle of the field.

Passing Defense

Last week we took a peak at some of Adrian Peterson’s splits and situational carries. This week I took at look at each of Peterson’s 78 carries in 2013, and this is what I found:
82.4% (56) have gone for less than 6 yards (last year he averaged 6.0 YPC).
48.8% (38)  have gone for 3 yards or less.
42.3% (33) have gone for 2 yards or less.
16.6% (13) have gone for 6 yards or more.
3.8% (3) have gone for more than 10 yards.
He has a YPC average of 2.8 over his last 30 carries.

How much longer is Arian Foster going to be in a time-share with Ben Tate? The answer is; longer than Foster owners would like. So far Foster has 63.9% more touches than Tate does – 57 touches vs 35 touches. Fantasy wise Foster has turned his touches into 38.7 fantasy points, and Tate has turned his into 26.80 fantasy points. Foster’s fantasy PPT (point/touch) is .679, and Tate’s PPT is .766. But fantasy production isn’t going to dictate who touches the ball or how much. What will dictate that is how the team performs with each player on the field, and based on the following numbers, Tate and the time-share is here to stay. When Foster is on the field the Texans are averaging 3.88 YPC on rushing plays. With Tate on the field they’re averaging 6.44 YPC. With Foster on the field the Texans’  NYoA (Net Yards over Average) per rush is 0.17, but with Tate on the field it’s 1.85. Read into that what you want, but it looks crystal clear to me that Tate will be involved for the foreseeable future.

Chargers ILB, Donald Butler’s groin injury allowed him to play just one snap last week. As it stands now he practiced fully on Wednesday and Thursday and it looks like he’ll play this week. Just keep a close eye on the situation because if he can’t play then it’s very good news for DeMarco Murray. When Butler isn’t on the field this year the Chargers are allowing a rushing YPC average of 5.09 -- that’s 21.2% higher than when he’s on the field.  If and when you see Reggie Walker on the field look for big chunks of rushing yardage because when he’s on the field the Chargers are allowing a YPC average of 5.78.

Let’s play a game. I’ll give you two QBs and you pick the choker.

  1. Tony Romo
  2. Aaron Rodgers

As Scott Kacsmar wrote, one of those two QBs is 5-24 (.172) for his career in games he was down 1-8 points in the fourth quarter, and the other’s record is 18-26 (.409). I’ll bet you already know the answer, don’t you? Even if you do, play along. In his career Romo is 57-39-0 (.594), while Aaron Rodgers is 53-28-0 (.654). Romo has, no wait, Rodgers has, no wait…here, just take a gander at this and you’ll see who the 5-24 (.172) record belongs to:

Clutch Chart

If you want to end on a more positive note, check out this chart on Clutch Records (prior to this season) which was also compiled by Scott Kacsmar.

Clutch All Time

And yes, I know that it’s a team game and that a defense (especially in Green Bay) can be as much or more at fault than a QB can, but it’s a QB driven league. They’re in the limelight, and like it or not they get far too much credit and far too much blame for wins and losses. With that said, if there’s one thing that I take away from all this…it’s that Cam Newton really should be wary of that Play 60 kid taking his job.


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