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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 4 SF at STL (THU) CIN at CLE NYG at KC SEA at HOU
PIT at MIN (London) IND at JAC PHI at DEN WAS at OAK
CHI at DET NE at ATL BAL at BUF MIA at NO (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at TB DAL at SD NYJ at TEN On Bye: CAR, GB

Prediction: NYJ 17, TEN 20 (Line: TEN by 4.5)

Players of Interest: Geno Smith

The 2-1 Jets hit the road where they have their only loss and bring along one of the better defenses in the NFL. The 2-1 Titans are back at home where they just staged a comeback win over the Chargers. This is a coin toss game since both teams have better defenses than they do offenses.

1 TB 18-17 10 BYE WEEK
2 @NE 10-13 11 @BUF -
3 BUF 27-20 12 @BAL -
4 @TEN - 13 MIA -
5 @ATL - 14 OAK -
6 PIT - 15 @CAR -
7 NE - 16 CLE -
8 @CIN - 17 @MIA -
9 NO - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Geno Smith 20,1 200,1
QB Michael Vick 40,1 310,1
RB Chris Johnson 80
RB Bilal Powell 50 2-20
WR Eric Decker 7-80
WR Jeremy Kerley 3-40
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets come off a nice win over the Bills and a winning record alone is a surprise. On the road outside of the division is a bigger challenge this week but at least the offense is showing signs of life even if it is using players that weren't first in line to be starters a month ago. So far the Jets have won their two home games but now hit a tough patch of the schedule. Those two wins may have been the softest matchups of the year or at least until week 14 against the Raiders.

QUARTERBACKS: Geno Smith is only three weeks into his career but he's already shown some impressive signs of belonging in the league. He comes off a 331 yard effort against the Bills where he scored twice via the pass and ran in one touchdown. He still tends to have multiple turnovers every week but he is settling down already and making it impossible for Mark Sanchez to get his old job back.

RUNNING BACKS: Chris Ivory is a bust so far and now has a hamstring pull that will likely keep him out this week. Worst news for him was that Bilal Powell looked great taking over against the Bills when he ran for 149 yards on 27 carries and the Jets could finally commit to the run. Granted this all came against the Bills, but it was the first sign that the Jets have a running back worth more than a dozen carries in any game. Ivory injured the same leg that kept him out of most of the training camp. Alex Green received five token carries but only gained 14 yards.

WIDE RECEIVERS: After two weeks with very minimal returns, the Jets had both Santonio Holmes (5-154, TD) and Stephen Hill (3-108, TD) end up with nice games against the Bills last Sunday. Hill reeled in a 51-yard catch and run for a touchdown while Holmes scored from 69 yards out. They were the first scores by a wide receiver this year and only the second and third passing score by Smith. Jeremy Kerley remains locked as the #3 and has provided very little. It was only one game of course and at home no less but at least Smith has his first big passing game in just his third start.

TIGHT ENDS: The big news here is that there is no news. Kellen Winslow is already bothered by his knee and while he suited up he was never targeted. His season opener with 79 yards and a score may prove to be bigger than the rest of his season. Until he or Jeff Cumberland show both production and consistency, there is no reason to project for either player.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Last week not withstanding, the Jets have not been successful running the ball and the Titans are about average and at home. Powell could be a low level flex start perhaps but goes against a defense that should prevent any replication of last week. Geno Smith faces a secondary that has given up at least one touchdown every week. No reason to expect fireworks here on the road against a decent defense. All Jets players are risky starts on Sunday though Smith could help out in dual QB leagues.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: Geno Smith is the center of the offense and will determine the success of the team. After two lackluster games, he looked much better at home against the Bills. This week shows if any real improvement was made or that it was just a good matchup for him.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 17 22 19 17 13 18
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 9 17 14 21 1 10

 

1 @PIT 16-9 10 JAC -
2 @HOU 24-30 11 IND -
3 SD 20-17 12 @OAK -
4 NYJ - 13 @IND -
5 KC - 14 @DEN -
6 @SEA - 15 ARI -
7 SF - 16 @JAC -
8 BYE WEEK 17 HOU -
9 @STL - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 40 220,1
WR Justin Hunter 2-40
WR Nate Washington 5-60
WR Kendall Wright 7-80,1
TE Delanie Walker 3-30
PK Ryan Succop 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Titans need to win this game. Badly. The schedule is about to take a major turn for the worse with the Chiefs, Seahawks and then 49ers on tap before the week eight bye. The offense is still struggling to post points but at least the defense has exceeded expectations. Aside from the Jaguars in week ten and 16, this week is likely the easiest matchup left on the schedule.

QUARTERBACKS: Jake Locker was better than usual (read - threw for more than 150 yards) when he posted 299 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers. He also added 68 yards on only five runs that included a very nice 39-yard weaving through the defense and a seven-yard touchdown run. His best feature so far is that he has yet to lose the ball and a turnover free quarterback is always a major benefit (ask the Giants).

RUNNING BACKS: Chris Johnson has been fairly productive so far with 256 yards on 69 carries but he has yet to score and has lost the goal line duty to either Jackie Battle or Shonn Greene when he is healthy. Johnson is also getting only one very short reception per week so the entirety of his value is on the yardage of his runs. That limits him in a big way and no one else is cashing in since no backs are getting passes and the entire unit only scored once so far this year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Kenny Britt has already worn out his welcome and was unable to come down with any of his five targets last week. Expect Britt to be phased out immediately as there are rumors he is being dangled for a trade that no one in their right mind would take interest in doing. His "potential" has finally run out after a slew of bad practices, dropped passes and the occasional penalty. Justin Hunter came in to replace him in the Chargers tilt and scored on his one catch from 34-yards out. In just one catch, Hunter is already more productive than Britt.

Nate Washington helped to bomb the Chargers with eight catches for 131 yards which was more than double his season best. Getting progressively better each week, Kendall Wright ended with a season high 71 yards on six catches. Washington, Wright and Hunter will be the starters ongoing.

TIGHT ENDS: Delanie Walker comes off his best game with five catches for 49 yards but he hurt his ankle and was going to get an MRI done. He remains below fantasy relevancy with no prospect of improvement.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This week is going to be a problem. The Jets have been outstanding at stopping the run and without touchdowns or receptions, the run is all Chris Johnson has. Expect a moderate game at best. Locker faces a defense that gives up exactly one touchdown per quarterback and marginal passing yardage. This is destined to be a low scoring affair with more defense than offense. Kendall Wright is in the best spot for a touchdown but the yardage will be on the low side for all players.

PLAYERS TO WATCH: A second home game goes against a very good defense. Locker needs to prove he belongs but continuing to avoid turnovers and taking off on another run is not a bad idea here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 25 31 21 25 10 13
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 6 2 16 6 20 20

WEEK 4 SF at STL (THU) CIN at CLE NYG at KC SEA at HOU
PIT at MIN (London) IND at JAC PHI at DEN WAS at OAK
CHI at DET NE at ATL BAL at BUF MIA at NO (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at TB DAL at SD NYJ at TEN On Bye: CAR, GB


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