FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
Follow Follow @DMDorey
 

Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 5 BUF at CLE (THU) DET at GB NE at CIN SEA at IND
DEN at DAL KC at TEN SD at OAK NYJ at ATL (MON)
BAL at MIA HOU at SF NO at CHI On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at ARI JAC at STL PHI at NYG MIN, PIT, TB, WAS

Prediction: SD 27, OAK 16 (Line: SD by 4.5)

Players of Interest: Keenan Allen, Naya Rivera

Update: Marcel Reece is questionable but had limited practices and may be active for the game. He is a very risky start at best.

This game has been moved from 4:25 PM ET to 11:35 PM ET because the field has to be converted from being used for the baseball playoffs. So there is now a late, late game on Sunday.

The Chargers rise to 2-2 with their solid win over the Cowboys but the defense still has yet to hold any opponent to fewer than 20 points. The Raiders slip to 1-3 with their loss to the Redskins and injuries have already changed the team only a quarter of the way through the season.

The Chargers swept the Raiders last season, winning 22-14 in Oakland in the season opener and then 24-21 in the season finale in San Diego.

1 HOU 28-31 10 DEN -
2 @PHI 33-30 11 @MIA -
3 @TEN 17-20 12 @KC -
4 DAL 30-21 13 CIN -
5 @OAK - 14 NYG -
6 IND - 15 @DEN -
7 @JAC - 16 OAK -
8 BYE WEEK 17 KC -
9 @WAS - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SD @ OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Philip Rivers 230,2
RB Ryan Mathews 60
RB Danny Woodhead 30 5-50
WR Keenan Allen 3-40
WR Eddie Royal 4-40,1
TE Antonio Gates 5-50,1
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: This will be the first divisional game for the Chargers who catch the Raiders at a good time. The offense has been far more productive than expected so far. The rushing effort has been mostly pitiful but Philip Rivers has been much more productive despite having no star receivers beyond a very aging Antonio Gates. The reality is that the schedule gets tough starting week ten and then for the final eight weeks. This is the time the Chargers have to take advantage of a lighter schedule.

QUARTERBACKS: Philip Rivers not only threw a score in every game, he already passed for over 400 yards twice. Only in Tennessee did he fail to toss three or more touchdowns. For a player thought to be on the decline surrounded by a questionable offense, Rivers is making the most of what he has to work with. Much more so than in recent seasons.

RUNNING BACKS: The Chargers mix in four different running backs and that ensures that no one has a big game. Ryan Mathews is the primary rusher but has yet to exceed 75 yards in a game or score as a runner. Ronnie Brown is apparently being phased out though his role as a blocker on passing downs keeps him on the field even if he rarely makes it in the box score. The only back who has evolved into any reliable fantasy value is Danny Woodhead thanks mostly to his work as a receiver. He comes off his best game of the year with 86 total yards and two scores. Woodhead has been good for five or more passes in each of the last three games and makes a flex play in larger leagues with reception points.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This unit started out hot with Eddie Royal catching five touchdowns in the first two weeks and Malcom Floyd topping 100 yards in Philadelphia. But Floyd was placed on injured reserve and Royal morphed back into a 40 yard per week afterthought once you overspent on your waivers after week two. Keenan Allen managed to end with 80 yards on five receptions against the Cowboys for his only good game of the year. Vincent Brown has yet to gain more than 41 yards in any game. What production Rivers has enjoyed lately is more about the running backs and tight ends.

TIGHT ENDS: Maybe it is just a rested Antonio Gates getting a hot start before cooling off and maybe he has somehow rejuvenated himself after a few years of chronic injuries. But Gates has enjoyed one of his best starts to any season for the last several seasons. He topped 100 yards twice and ended the Dallas game with ten catches for 136 yards and one score. He doesn't look any faster to be sure but he has been rather open in recent weeks which is part him and part the game plan/play calling.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Raiders are only average against the pass with every opponent scoring at least once through the air. The only team so far with more than 240 passing yards was the Broncos which do not count. The Raiders have also been very good against the run with no player rushing for more than 71 yards against them. Rivers is a definite option this week as is Gates and Woodhead. Unfortunately no wideout is attractive this week in a road game though one should likely end up with a score.

WHAT TO WATCH: Mostly if the wideouts can get back to scoring and producing yardage after two dry weeks. This cannot continue to be just the Woodhead and Gates show in the future.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 5 4 14 4 5 31
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 17 10 20 20 11 17

 

1 @IND 17-21 10 @NYG -
2 JAC 19-9 11 @HOU -
3 @DEN 21-37 12 TEN -
4 WAS 14-24 13 @DAL -
5 SD - 14 @NYJ -
6 @KC - 15 KC -
7 BYE WEEK 16 @SD -
8 PIT - 17 DEN -
9 PHI - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Matt Schaub 230,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew 50,1 2-10
WR James Jones 4-40
WR Denarius Moore 5-70,1
TE Mychal Rivera 3-30
PK Sebastian Janikowski 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: And the Raiders are back. Matt Flynn took over for the injured Terrelle Pryor and looked suitably bad. Darren McFadden already had his one good game and now is out indefinitely with a hamstring pull. The strides made by the offense this year - and they were not exactly huge strides - were directly related to what Pryor accomplished and having a healthy McFadden. If the injury lasts, it's not going to be a selling point for McFadden who is in a contract year. And after this week, the Raiders head to Kansas City where all the fun of visiting has vanished.

QUARTERBACKS: Matt Flynn became the first quarterback this year to face the Redskins - visiting no less - and not walk away with a great game. Flynn passed for only 227 yards and one score with an interception (returned for a touchdown), lost fumble and, oh yes, seven sacks. It is even more apparent how Terrelle Pryor won the quarterbacking competition this summer.

HC Dennis Allen said that Pryor may play this week and I will assume that for the projections and update as warranted. Even with Pryor this game looks like a loss and if both he and McFadden are gone again, it could be ugly.

RUNNING BACKS: The Raiders lost Darren McFadden to a hamstring strain and while they are not certain how long he is out, it seems certain that this week will at least be missed. Marcel Reece also injured his knee but the MRI was negative. His return is also uncertain but is not expected to be this week. That should involve Rashad Jennings again after he ran for 45 yards on 15 carries and added eight catches for 71 yards against the Skins who were already one of the lowest ranked teams against the position. Jeremy Stewart may help out as well. Hopefully more can be known later in the week and will be updated as needed.

WIDE RECEIVERS: If there is a sin in life, it is facing the Redskins and having no wide receiver gain more than 66 yards or score. Denarius Moore brought in four receptions for 66 yards while no other wideout gained more than 18 yards or two catches. This unit is already one of the worst in the league with Pryor at quarterback. Sub in Flynn and there is no reason to even know their names. Assuming that Pryor plays, I will project for them.

TIGHT ENDS: The lone interesting factoid from the game last week was when the rookie Mychal Rivera scored his first NFL touchdown. We discovered his sister is actually Naya Rivera who plays Santana on Glee thereby making it two famous tight ends in the same family. His 44 yards was a season/career high and he only averages about 30 yards per game so no reason to break the bank in free agency to get him unless you are hoping for a conversation starter if you ever meet his sister (which you won't but I respect playing very small odds).

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The loss of McFadden and even Reece really places an entirely new slant on the offense and it is not a positive one. The Chargers have allowed plenty of yards to opposing passers but even Pryor has yet to score more than once in a game or throw for major yardage. And that was when he had a rushing game to respect. The Chargers front line have not allowed any running back to score or break 100 rushing yards so the thought that Rashad Jennings will is playing worse odds than the above Naya Rivera ploy. The secondary has allowed numerous big games to receivers but the Raiders have no star players. If Pryor is completely healthy and playing he can make a low end QB2 in leagues playing two. Denarius Moore has just enough upside to merit WR consideration and if you have to cover a tight end on bye, then you could do worse than Rivera. But it's hard to expect more than moderate statistics from any Raiders player because they have not generated any difference making performances yet.

WHAT TO WATCH: Mychal Rivera just because they may show a picture of his sister again. Otherwise there is limited expectations without McFadden and maybe even Pryor.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 26 15 29 25 25 30
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 32 5 28 22 17 15

WEEK 5 BUF at CLE (THU) DET at GB NE at CIN SEA at IND
DEN at DAL KC at TEN SD at OAK NYJ at ATL (MON)
BAL at MIA HOU at SF NO at CHI On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at ARI JAC at STL PHI at NYG MIN, PIT, TB, WAS


a d v e r t i s e m e n t