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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 5 BUF at CLE (THU) DET at GB NE at CIN SEA at IND
DEN at DAL KC at TEN SD at OAK NYJ at ATL (MON)
BAL at MIA HOU at SF NO at CHI On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at ARI JAC at STL PHI at NYG MIN, PIT, TB, WAS

Prediction: SEA 17, IND 20 (Line: SEA by 2.5)

Players of Interest: Russell Wilson

The Seahawks squeaked past the Texans in overtime to keep their perfect 4-0 record alive but their two road wins were by only five and three points. Their home wins were by 26 and 28. The Colts rise to 3-1 with their freebie when the Jaguars came to town. The Seahawks are probably unbeatable at home but on the road they're merely outstanding. The Colts have been surprising in recent weeks though and won in San Francisco. It seems that a low scoring game is a lock.

1 @CAR 12-7 10 @ATL -
2 SF 29-3 11 MIN -
3 JAC 45-17 12 BYE WEEK
4 @HOU 23-20 13 NO -
5 @IND - 14 @SF -
6 TEN - 15 @NYG -
7 @ARI - 16 ARI -
8 @STL - 17 STL -
9 TB - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SEA @ IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Terrelle Pryor 40 220,1
QB Russell Wilson 40 210,1
RB Marshawn Lynch 80,1 2-10
TE Zach Miller 2-20
PK Steven Hauschka 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Seahawks remain perfect but needed overtime to stay that way in Houston. Jacksonville game aside, the Seahawks are surviving on a great defense, average offense and the occasional bounce that goes their way... just like last year. If The Seahawks can get past the Colts, they're likely to have an easy time until week ten in Atlanta. The schedule works out to be pretty light the whole season and only the looming rematch in San Francisco is likely to see the other team favored. If even then.

QUARTERBACKS: Russell Wilson remains just the game manager and even failed to throw a score in Houston while only completing 12 of 23 for 123 yards. But he finally used his legs for the first time this year with 77 yards on ten runs. Take away the four scores against the Jaguars and Wilson has not been that productive this year and even committed five turnovers against just six touchdowns.

RUNNING BACKS: Marshawn Lynch comes off his best game of the year. He still has yet to break 100 rushing yards but he ran for 98 yards and one touchdown on 17 carries and added three receptions for 45 yards. Oddly enough, his only two scoring games were against the 49ers and Texans - both the best defenses he has yet faced. Lynch is well off the pace he established last year though he was pulled from the Jaguars romp instead of allowing him to roll up big yardage.

WIDE RECEIVERS: These wide receivers are all well short of fantasy relevancy and while each one has scored in one game, none of them have scored in more than one. They still have yet to produce a single effort over 100 yards and since the opener none of them catch more than five passes in any game. There is moderate production here taking the group as a whole but none of them merits any fantasy starts so far this year.

TIGHT ENDS: There is no reliable fantasy value here as well. Last week Zach Miller only caught one pass for seven yards.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: It doesn't help matters that the Seahawks are missing offensive linemen and Wilson was getting beaten up last week. The Colts defense has quietly been very good though facing OAK, MIA, SF and JAC is not exactly a trip through the top ten passers. Still they have only allowed two passing touchdowns this year. They gave up three rushing touchdowns but no one has rushed for more than 82 yards on them either. This looks like a low scoring effort and the only safe play will be Marshawn Lynch who should at least score once. No other player offers a chance of reward more than their risk of a bad game.

WHAT TO WATCH: Russell Wilson was knocked around and sacked five times in Houston. He needs to post more than the 200 yards or less of the last three weeks if only for the future when the defense is not enough to win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SEA 8 11 17 19 8 4
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 3 7 4 13 3 3

 

1 OAK 21-17 10 STL -
2 MIA 20-24 11 @TEN -
3 @SF 27-7 12 @ARI -
4 @JAC 37-3 13 TEN -
5 SEA - 14 @CIN -
6 @SD - 15 HOU -
7 DEN - 16 @KC -
8 BYE WEEK 17 JAC -
9 @HOU - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs SEA Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 40,1 240,1
RB Trent Richardson 70 2-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 3-50
WR Reggie Wayne 5-50,1
TE Coby Fleener 5-60
PK Adam Vinatieri 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts come off their trouncing of the Jaguars giving them two big wins in row. But the schedule is not getting any easier for the next four games and the defense that has far exceeded expectations will be tested much more in the near future. The offense may lack some of the big plays from 2012 but it is helping to control the clock and field position. With only two interceptions and no lost fumbles on the year, the Colts will at least remain competitive each week because they are making their opponents play the entire field and get no cheap scores.

QUARTERBACKS: While Andrew Luck scored in every game so far, he's been light on the yardage and touchdowns since the opener. Luck has added two rushing touchdowns but in fantasy terms he's just an average quarterback on a good day. Luck has turned more into a game manager than a gunslinger this year.

RUNNING BACKS: Ahmad Bradshaw was held out last week because of his sprained neck but may be back this week. I will assume he cannot go and update it as needed. The intention of the Colts is to use both he and Trent Richardson in different ways and that Bradshaw will still have a role in the offense. Richardson scored in both of his first games as a Colt though he's only managed 35 yards in San Francisco and then 60 yards in Jacksonville. He is still learning the playbook and blocking schemes and is expected to improve. Richardson will maintain his role as a primary back and do most of the rushing but Bradshaw should at least serve a third down role and as relief for Richardson.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Reggie Wayne posted 100 yards and one score in Jacksonville but was limited to five catches since the season opener. He owns both of the only touchdowns caught by a wideout so far. T.Y. Hilton only came up with a big game against the Dolphins but otherwise has been held to under 50 yards every week. Darrius Heyward-Bey is mostly just a blocker. It gets even less appealing here with LaVon Brazil coming off his four game suspension and likely to get at least some minimal playing time.

This offense is not nearly as prolific as it was in 2012 since the defense is helping reduce the need for any big aerial show. The potential is still there, the Colts just haven't needed to explore it much.

TIGHT ENDS: The Coby Fleener band wagon is starting to fill but mostly people stand around not certain if it is worth the ride. Fleener scored last week when he was left wide open by the defense and he ran in from 31-yards out. He only gained 13 yards on two catches the previous week in San Francisco. Fleener currently has two very nice games and two compete duds. That is hard to rely on even if Luck is looking at him up to seven times each week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Seahawks are just dominating on defense and at home they are simply unbeatable. But on their second road trip after winning in overtime in Houston, they could be be less prolific. Matt Schaub passed for 355 yards and two scores on them while Arian Foster turned in 171 total yards and a score. This is a non-conference game for them and three time zones back. It's certainly scary to start anyone against the Seahawks but they really do play quite differently at home than they do on the road. Luck, Wayne and Richardson are worth a start even if your expectations should be lowered just in case.

WHAT TO WATCH: This is where Andrew Luck must continue his error free ways since that is the biggest weapon the Seahawks will bring - an opportunistic defense. The Texans had their game won against them until Matt Schaub threw yet another interception returned for a touchdown.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 14 23 12 11 12
Preventing Fantasy Points SEA 6 13 1 12 5 11

WEEK 5 BUF at CLE (THU) DET at GB NE at CIN SEA at IND
DEN at DAL KC at TEN SD at OAK NYJ at ATL (MON)
BAL at MIA HOU at SF NO at CHI On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at ARI JAC at STL PHI at NYG MIN, PIT, TB, WAS


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