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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 6 NYG at CHI (THU) DET at CLE OAK at KC TEN at SEA
ARI at SF GB at BAL PIT at NYJ WAS at DAL
CAR at MIN JAC at DEN PHI at TB IND at SD (MON)
*UPDATED CIN at BUF NO at NE STL at HOU On Bye: ATL, MIA

Prediction: CIN 23, BUF 16 (Line: CIN by 7.5)

Players of Interest: Andy Dalton, Thaddeus Lewis

Update: Stevie Johnson never practiced this week and is a game time decision and a huge risk to rely on in any case since Thaddeus Lewis is starting. C.J. Spiller is also questionable but he is expected to play. Spiller was limited in practices because of his ankle but is not expected to be limited.

The 3-2 Bengals are hard to get a read on this year but are 0-2 on the road. The Bills are only 2-3 and just lost their quarterback for a while. But they are 2-1 at home. Have to think the Cincy defense makes the difference in this game.

1 @CHI 21-24 10 @BAL -
2 PIT 20-10 11 CLE -
3 GB 34-30 12 BYE WEEK
4 @CLE 6-17 13 @SD -
5 NE 13-6 14 IND -
6 @BUF - 15 @PIT -
7 @DET - 16 MIN -
8 NYJ - 17 BAL -
9 @MIA - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 260,2
RB Giovani Bernard 50 4-50
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 60
WR A.J. Green 7-100,1
WR Mohamed Sanu 4-60,1
TE Tyler Eifert 4-50
TE Jermaine Gresham 5-60
PK Mike Nugent 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bengals come off a nice win over the Patriots thanks to another big defensive effort. The offense has been in idle for two weeks now and hits a four game stretch containing three road games and all sport good defenses except for this week. It won't take a lot to win the AFC North this year but it will require being able to win road games. A loss here spells major problems.

QUARTERBACKS: Andy Dalton is still struggling in the passing game and has gone two games without any scores. His has never thrown for more than 282 yards and currently stands at five touchdowns against five interceptions and two lost fumbles. These last three weeks have sported very marginal yardage as well. The rushing game is doing little more than taking short yardage touchdowns and not giving back much in the way of moving the sticks.

RUNNING BACKS: Giovani Bernard seemed to be taking a step up after scoring three times in the first three weeks but still has been only marginal in yardage every week and hasn't scored in the last two games. In the two previous road games, he was held to fewer than 37 rush yards in each and his road as a receiver varies greatly from one to six catches. BenJarvus Green-Ellis comes off his best game of the year when he ran for 67 yards on 19 carries and scored once on the Patriots. Facing his old team was likely a motivator.

Bernard lost a fumble in the Pats win and that won't help him get more work. The split in workload ensures that neither player is more than a moderate fantasy start at best.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The depressed (and depressing) passing stats have taken the expected hit here. A.J. Green stared the year with a monster effort but has been no better than 61 yards in any game since while scoring only one more time. That's still miles better than Mohamed Sanu who has yet to score or offer more than very marginal yardage in any game. In years past. the #2 has been of little consequence but that only meant more for Green. This year not even Green is getting the love from the passing effort. If anything the addition of tight ends have drained a bit from this unit which means from Green.

TIGHT ENDS: It isn't that they ever score, but at least the combined yardage from Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert is typically close to 100 yards per week. Problem is that they do split the load so neither has produced more than 66 yards in any game and are not above turning in the big clunker.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This should be encouraging. The Bills have allowed at least two scores to all but the Browns along with very healthy yardage. In particular they are very weak against wideouts so not only Green but even Sanu might have a game worth noting. It won't get any better for the Bengals passing effort than this game for the next month or more. Conversely, they have been great against the run and allowed just one touchdown. Dalton is a risky play but has the situation for a nice showing. Green is a must start who should turn in a big game finally while Sanu has his best chance for a meaningful game. The rushing effort here should be the same marginal stats as usual. if Thaddeus Lewis proves ineffective for the Bills and the game goes well, there could be more rushing at the end by the Bengals.

WHAT TO WATCH: The passing game has to catch fire in this game. With a bad schedule looming, this will be as good as Dalton and Green are going to look and have to show up big here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 28 13 24 15 28 20
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 21 7 31 5 29 22

 

1 NE 21-23 10 @PIT -
2 CAR 24-23 11 NYJ -
3 @NYJ 26-16 12 BYE WEEK
4 BAL 23-20 13 ATL -
5 @CLE 24-37 14 @TB -
6 CIN - 15 @JAC -
7 @MIA - 16 MIA -
8 @NO - 17 @NE -
9 KC - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BUF vs CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Thaddeus Lewis 190
RB Fred Jackson 40,1 5-30
RB C.J. Spiller 50 1-10
WR T.J. Graham 2-20
WR Stevie Johnson
WR Mike Williams 4-50,1
WR Robert Woods 3-40
TE Scott Chandler 5-40
PK Dan Carpenter 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: Three straight wins plus a two point loss to the Patriots suggested that the Bills were a young and up-and-coming team that would be a contender. Then the Thursday night game saw E.J. Manuel and Stevie Johnson leaving with injuries and the loss was not only on, it may be just the first of many with a brutal stretch of the schedule starting now. The Bills have made definite progress this year but this injury situation is going to knock them back at least until after the week 12 bye.

QUARTERBACKS: E.J. Manuel suffered a sprained right LCL when he was hit during a run against the Browns and the early speculation is that he will miss from six to eight weeks. Sadly that is plenty of time for the Bills to fall irrevocably behind. Jeff Tuel came in to finish the game but did little with only eight completions on 20 passes for 80 yards and one interception. He'll improve but the offense takes a step backwards and maybe two without Manuel there. This is not a good development for a team that was really on the right track.

The Bills promoted Thaddeus Lewis from the practice squad to start this week. That only offers even less consistency for the offense.

RUNNING BACKS: C.J. Spiller played with a sprained ankle last week and broke off a 54 yard run for a touchdown. He only managed to gain 12 yards on his other seven carries. Fred Jackson was effective all night with 17 runs for 53 yards and two touchdowns. and that gives him four scores on the year. Once again the aging Jackson has exceeded expectations and offered the most consistent weapon to the offense. The workload will continue to be split between Spiller and Jackson. The interesting potential change is if the rushing effort is depressed while defenses stack the line and beg Tuel to throw. The schedule is already getting tougher and now Spiller and Jackson are likely a bigger focus for the defense. Spiller should be more healed from his ankle injury this week.

Notable was that in the one quarter that he played, Jeff Tuel threw five of the six targets that Fred Jackson received.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Stevie Johnson injured his back in the Browns loss but he is not expected to miss any time and will be available. How well his stats fare with Tuel is likely not promising. After opening the year with a score in each game, Johnson was held to only one catch for a one yard loss by the Ravens and then just two receptions for 19 yards last week. Johnson is likely to continue to disappoint with Tuel as the starter. Robert Woods was the best receiver last week but that was only 64 yards on five catches. Together Woods and Johnson should command a big chunk of the offense but that is a risk to expect at least until Tuel shows improvement.

Of the 13 targets that Woods was thrown, seven came from Tuel. How Lewis impacts this unit is unknown but reasonable to assume that he was on the practice squad for a reason.

TIGHT ENDS: There is a chance that Scott Chandler sees a marginal increase in work with Tuel under center but he only scored once this year and aside from the Ravens game, has remained below 50 yards each week. Chandler received six passes last week and four came from Tuel.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bengals secondary has been excellent this year allowing just six passing scores despite facing Cutler, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Hoyer and Brady.. No quarterback passed for more than 269 yards and now a practice squad player is going to direct the offense. Unless they were hiding a star player, chances are excellent that the passing effort won't produce too much this week. Johnson may be limited because of his back anyway. Playing at home should still make both Spiller and Jackson as moderate plays but the entire passing game is too risky to rely on this week.

WHAT TO WATCH: Thaddeus Lewis could do himself a big favor with a good show this week though all he really can angle for is to be the eventual backup instead of a practice squad player.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 29 3 29 23 13 9
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 9 9 14 13 14 18

WEEK 6 NYG at CHI (THU) DET at CLE OAK at KC TEN at SEA
ARI at SF GB at BAL PIT at NYJ WAS at DAL
CAR at MIN JAC at DEN PHI at TB IND at SD (MON)
*UPDATED CIN at BUF NO at NE STL at HOU On Bye: ATL, MIA


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