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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 6 NYG at CHI (THU) DET at CLE OAK at KC TEN at SEA
ARI at SF GB at BAL PIT at NYJ WAS at DAL
CAR at MIN JAC at DEN PHI at TB IND at SD (MON)
*UPDATED CIN at BUF NO at NE STL at HOU On Bye: ATL, MIA

Prediction: GB 24, BAL 23 (Line: GB by 3)

Players of Interest: Ray Rice

Update: Marlon Brown was limited all week and is listed as questionable because of his thigh. He is expected to play but Jacoby Jones is also potentially back this week after being out since the season opener when he knee was injured by his own team mate. Jones will cut into Brown's action though he may not be taking his starting spot back, at least not initially.

This week gets to answer exactly what sort of team the Packers are going to be. They are 2-0 at home and 0-2 on the road. They remain close in road games but so far lost in San Francisco and Cincinnati. The 3-2 Ravens are locked in a three way tie for the AFC North and are 2-0 at home against Cleveland and Houston.

1 @SF 28-34 10 PHI -
2 WAS 38-20 11 @NYG -
3 @CIN 30-34 12 MIN -
4 BYE WEEK 13 @DET -
5 DET 22-9 14 ATL -
6 @BAL - 15 @DAL -
7 CLE - 16 PIT -
8 @MIN - 17 @CHI -
9 CHI - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Aaron Rodgers 280,2
RB Eddie Lacy 60,1 1-10
WR Randall Cobb 7-80
WR Jordy Nelson 5-80,1
TE Jermichael Finley 6-50
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers need a road win and if they can get past this week the schedule really softens up. The rushing effort has been markedly better for 2013 and hasn't even depended on which back was being used. The worrisome part is more about the defense that allowed 34 points to both road opponents so far. A loss here won't be the end of the season by any stretch but already a game back means the Packers have to learn how to win on the road.

QUARTERBACKS: Aaron Rodgers is again hitting a lull in his normally high production. For the last two games, he only passed for one score in each and remained well below 300 yards. He also almost stopped rushing completely with only about 10 yards per game on average and not a single rushing score. The addition of better running backs has removed a nice part of his past fantasy value. He's obviously still as talented as are his team mates but he's topping out around 40 passes per games even in the losses. He passed for 274 and one score versus Detroit but needed an 83-yard touchdown by James Jones to remain relevant.

RUNNING BACKS: Eddie Lacy is back and gained 99 yards on 23 runs versus the Lions. Johnathan Franklin may still have a minor role but lost a fumble and was benched last week. The Lions win was the first time that no running back scored. There is almost no receptions from this unit but at least the Packers are committed to giving 15 to 20 carries to the primary back. As long as Lacy can avoid another concussion, he'll remain a decent play every week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The three wideouts continue to shine if only one at a time. Last week it was James Jones gaining 127 yards and a score thanks to an 83-yard catch and run for a touchdown. That makes two straight weeks with a score while both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb did not reach the endzone in those games. Cobb in particular was held to only 35 yards by the Lions but added a 67-yard run to spice up his fantasy value. Each week someone here will turn in a nice game and sometimes it is two players. But getting those right is the challenge.

TIGHT ENDS: The first two weeks suggested that Jermichael Finley was truly taking a step up and scored in each tilt. But the last two weeks was just more of the same. He was blanked in Cincinnati and then only gained 32 yards in the Lions win.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Ravens at home should be tough. But they are hard to read since they opened by being dehumanized by Peyton Manning but then only gave up two passing scores over the next four weeks. Those went against CLE, HOU, BUF and MIA though so hardly a class of stellar quarterbacks. And Tannehill passed for 307 yards. The home venue here will matter though. The Ravens have only given up one rushing touchdown this season and at home no opponent has rushed for more than 90 yards and that was from Foster and Tate. The Packers present the best offense they have faced since the Denver fiasco. Even in this road game, all the normal Packer starts apply.

WHAT TO WATCH: Jermichael Finley added a nice spark the first two weeks but has since been quiet. He needs to show up in a road game against a good defense. Another bad week and becomes almost too risky for a fantasy start.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 5 15 2 18 3 22
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 16 1 21 20 22 19

 

1 @DEN 27-49 10 CIN -
2 CLE 14-6 11 @CHI -
3 HOU 30-9 12 NYJ -
4 @BUF 20-23 13 PIT -
5 @MIA 26-23 14 MIN -
6 GB - 15 @DET -
7 @PIT - 16 NE -
8 BYE WEEK 17 @CIN -
9 @CLE - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 260,1
RB Bernard Pierce 20
RB Ray Rice 50,1 5-30
WR Marlon Brown 3-40
WR Steve Smith 6-80
WR Torrey Smith 6-90 1
PK Justin Tucker 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens come off a close win in Miami for their first road victory. That included the first time this year that Ray Rice was able to get on track and it provided the element that the offense was missing. After this game comes a trip to Pittsburgh before the bye. This year has a much weakened AFC North tied with a three-way knot of teams at 3-2. What happens this week matter far less than the three straight divisional games that immediately follow.

QUARTERBACKS: Joe Flacco comes off his second game of the year with no passing touchdowns but at least he is turning in at least moderate yardage each week. The return of Marlon Brown this week may offer an incremental upgrade but in fantasy terms, Flacco has marginal value at best. After five games he has only thrown five touchdowns against eight interceptions. Any improvement to the rushing offense only depresses his stats even more.

RUNNING BACKS: After struggling to ever rush for more than 40 yards in the first four games, Ray Rice finally had a healthy throw-back sort of game where he ran 27 times for 74 yards and two scores while finally adding six catches for 29 yards. Rice opened the year with eight catches but then only came up with three over the next two games. Bernard Pierce was a big addition in the previous home games where he scored in both and ran for over 50 yards but his role has been dialed back with a healthy and productive Rice finally showing up.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Marlon Brown missed the Miami game because of his hamstring but is expected back this week. He's been only a marginal outlet for Flacco with four catches or less but he scored in three of the four games he was active. Torrey Smith remains light on scoring with just one touchdown but has been outstanding with yardage since he has always turned in 80+ yards in every matchup. He has been the lone consistently productive on the entire offense.

The Ravens re-signed Brandon Stokley but he'll remain just depth. Tandon Doss is now serving as the #3 wideout.

TIGHT ENDS: Ed Dickson teased with a 51 yard game against the Dolphins but that was on only two receptions and he has yet to score or end up with more than those two catches if that. He was blanked in week two in his last home game. Dallas Clark is only marginally better with yardage but neither has been in the endzone this year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers are weaker against the pass and only average against the run. They also just lost LB Clay Mathews which affects both pass rushing and run stopping. Given the success of Rice last week and the desire to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, expect a decent to good rushing effort by Rice and a likely show at a touchdown as well so long as Pierce doesn't steal it. Smith is a safe start as always against a secondary that gave up six scores to the position in just four games played. Beyond Smith and Rice, none of the others are attractive plays even in this home game.

WHAT TO WATCH: The Packers are hurting at linebacker and Ray Rice is warming up. He should be the one to carry this game if they will repeat his workload from last week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 25 19 10 26 8 15
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 24 15 27 27 3 16

WEEK 6 NYG at CHI (THU) DET at CLE OAK at KC TEN at SEA
ARI at SF GB at BAL PIT at NYJ WAS at DAL
CAR at MIN JAC at DEN PHI at TB IND at SD (MON)
*UPDATED CIN at BUF NO at NE STL at HOU On Bye: ATL, MIA


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