FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 6 NYG at CHI (THU) DET at CLE OAK at KC TEN at SEA
ARI at SF GB at BAL PIT at NYJ WAS at DAL
CAR at MIN JAC at DEN PHI at TB IND at SD (MON)
*UPDATED CIN at BUF NO at NE STL at HOU On Bye: ATL, MIA

Prediction: JAC 17, DEN 41 (Line: DEN by 26.5)

Players of Interest: Chad Henne

Wow. Just wow. Not sure I remember any NFL line that big.

1 KC 2-28 10 @TEN -
2 @OAK 9-19 11 ARI -
3 @SEA 17-45 12 @HOU -
4 IND 3-37 13 @CLE -
5 @STL 20-34 14 HOU -
6 @DEN - 15 BUF -
7 SD - 16 TEN -
8 SF - 17 @IND -
9 BYE WEEK ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ DEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 250,1
WR Tandon Doss 2-30
WR Ace Sanders 3-30
WR Cecil Shorts 6-90,1
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: By this point in the season, all you can do is look at the schedule and try to find where a trap game can happen because it will happen eventually. At least probably. You can be pretty sure it won't be in this game. The Jaguars are switching to Chad Henne as the starter over Blaine Gabbert which is always a positive move but they just lost their #2 draft pick this year when LT Luke Joekel broke his ankle. As if the rushing effort and pass blocking needed any more challenges.

QUARTERBACKS: Blaine Gabbert is out with a Grade 2 hamstring pull and there is no longer any guarantee he will return to a starting job after posting one touchdown against seven interceptions in the three games that he's played. Chad Henne takes the start and upgrades the offense as he did last year. His two starts both went over 230 passing yards and were on the road. Gabbert never managed more than 181 yards in any game.

RUNNING BACKS: Maurice Jones-Drew comes off a season best 70 yards in 17 carries AND YOU SHOULD TRADE HIM NOW. Just kidding - no one is going to take him from you. Jones-Drew has otherwise remained below 50 rush yards in every game and somehow freakishly only scored in Seattle when the Seahawks spent the fourth quarter trading recipes and playing dominos on the sideline. The switch to Henne will help Jones-Drew but unlikely to make him anything more than a rather marginal fantasy play each week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Granted it happened against the Rams, but it was more than encouraging to see Justin Blackmon leave his four game suspension and roll up 136 yards and a score on five catches in St. Louis. Cecil Shorts was a game time decision because of his hamstring but showed up for 74 yards and a touchdown on his five receptions. This duo is more than capable of moving the ball and having Henne under center makes a dramatic difference based on last season. Blackmon's return has killed off Ace Sander's value but there wasn't much to kill anyway. Knowing that the Jags are going to be trailing in every game means the wideouts will be getting plenty of targets.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The reality is that anything good is probably going to happen in the trash time that might begin sometime in the second quarter. This game is such a laugher of a matchup that you have to expect that the Broncos are going to lose all interest by the end and let the Jags have some marginal fun throwing the ball. It isn't enough to merit a start by Henne, but both Blackmon and Shorts should be considered strongly. Just do not check the box score until late in the fourth quarter.

WHAT TO WATCH: Chad Henne can grab the starting job for the rest of the year - and should - with a good showing in the coming weeks.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 31 31 26 29 31 29
Preventing Fantasy Points DEN 29 23 30 23 19 1

 

1 BAL 49-27 10 @SD -
2 @NYG 41-23 11 KC -
3 OAK 37-21 12 @NE -
4 PHI 52-20 13 @KC -
5 @DAL 51-48 14 TEN -
6 JAC - 15 SD -
7 @IND - 16 @HOU -
8 WAS - 17 @OAK -
9 BYE WEEK ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
DEN vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Peyton Manning 320,3
RB Montee Ball 60 1-10
RB Ronnie Hillman 50 2-20
WR Emmanuel Sanders 4-50
WR Demaryius Thomas 7-100,1
WR Wes Welker 7-70,1
TE Julius Thomas 4-40,1
PK Matt Prater 2 FG 5 XP

Pregame Notes: What is not to like about a team that has scored 103 points in just the last two weeks? Half of the NFL hasn't totaled that much in five games. This matchup seems so off-base that it makes you wince. Unless you own Denver players. The game last week was only one minefield that the Broncos were able to navigate and there will be others. But man - not this week.

QUARTERBACKS: Peyton Manning is setting records every time he plays and now has thrown 20 touchdowns - seven more than any other quarterback so far. And the delta is growing. So far the worst he produced was 307 yards and two scores in New York when he took pity on his brother. Otherwise it has been like duck hunting down at the city pond. The cold and windy weather will affect him later in the year but that is just a sign that only God is going to slow him down.

RUNNING BACKS: As the season progresses, the more important that Knowshon Moreno becomes. When the Broncos were finally in an actual close game in Dallas, Moreno barely left the field and ended with 19 runs for 93 yards and one score along with a season high five catches for 57 yards. Ronnie Hillman only offers marginal relief and catches a few passes. Montee Ball does not exist when the Broncos are not 21 points ahead.

The good and bad news is that you should expect that Moreno will not finish this blowout and that Hillman and Ball are likely to get a much larger chunk of the offense than they will in maybe any other game. This is certainly the best chance for Ball to get back on the field in the second half though there is no guarantee.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Wes Welker continues to catch a touchdown in every game eve though his yardage remains moderate. He's become a relied on weapon at the endzone where the secondary just cannot keep up with him. Demaryius Thomas has been the less effective of the three wideouts mostly because he is the one most covered. He still has four touchdowns on the season but is missing the monster games he had in 2012. Eric Decker has been slightly more consistent than Thomas but all three are must starts every week.

TIGHT ENDS: Julius Thomas scored twice in Dallas along with a season best nine catches for 122. That gives him six touchdowns on the year and reverses his trend of sub-50 yard games of the three previous weeks.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is nearly impossible because the Broncos at home could ravage this defense in any way they wanted and are almost guaranteed to end up resting key players in the fourth quarter if not earlier. You have to start all your Bronco receivers and Manning no matter what. Moreno is safe enough to stay long enough to reward owners but likely to eventually give way to Hillman and Ball instead of having the monster game he could have.

WHAT TO WATCH: Montee Ball because he doesn't get much consideration unless the game is really well in hand. He might end up with a season high carries here if it all goes according to plan.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points DEN 1 4 1 3 1 13
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 23 24 18 26 27 29

WEEK 6 NYG at CHI (THU) DET at CLE OAK at KC TEN at SEA
ARI at SF GB at BAL PIT at NYJ WAS at DAL
CAR at MIN JAC at DEN PHI at TB IND at SD (MON)
*UPDATED CIN at BUF NO at NE STL at HOU On Bye: ATL, MIA


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