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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 8 CAR at TB (THU) DAL at DET NYJ at CIN SEA at STL (MON)
ATL at ARI GB at MIN PIT at OAK On Bye:
BUF at NO MIA at NE SF at JAC BAL, CHI, HOU
*UPDATED CLE at KC NYG at PHI WAS at DEN IND, SD, TEN

Prediction: NYJ 10, CIN 24 (Line: CIN by 7)

Players of Interest: Chris Ivory

The 4-3 Jets come off their win over the Patriots but are only 1-2 on the road and the lone win was by two points over the Falcons. The Bengals are 5-2 and atop the AFC North by two full games. They are 3-0 when at home. Jets would have a tough time here anyway but likely will have an emotional letdown after their big win last week.

1 TB 18-17 10 BYE WEEK
2 @NE 10-13 11 @BUF -
3 BUF 27-20 12 @BAL -
4 @TEN 13-38 13 MIA -
5 @ATL 30-28 14 OAK -
6 PIT 6-19 15 @CAR -
7 NE 30-27 16 CLE -
8 @CIN - 17 @MIA -
9 NO - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ CIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Geno Smith 20 200,1
QB Michael Vick 40 290,2
RB Chris Ivory 40
RB Bilal Powell 30 3-20
WR Eric Decker 5-80
WR T.J. Graham 3-40
WR Jeremy Kerley 6-80
WR David Nelson 2-30,1
TE Jeff Cumberland 4-50
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets have exceeded expectations already with a winning record and having just beat the Patriots. But the next two games will be very challenging and their eventual playoff hopes will likely be up to Miami with their two matchups left to play. The offense remains inconsistent at best and the fear this week is that the team returns to scoring woes when away from home.

QUARTERBACKS: Geno Smith continues to improve but he still has yet to be much better than the opposing defense allows anyone else. His only games with two or more passing scores were against the Bills and Falcons. Smith has eight passing scores against 11 interceptions but comes off his second rushing touchdown of the season. He's only averaging around 20 rush yards per week so that not a significant part of his performances.

RUNNING BACKS: With Mike Goodson gone for the year, it was expected that Chris Ivory would see a small uptick in workload but last week he was the main horse of the offense. Bilal Powell was only given three rushes for six yards before he was yanked for the more powerful Ivory who ran 34 times for 104 yards - basically more than his five previous games combined. It was a surprise but Ivory only averaged 3.1 yards per carry. Ivory became the "hot hand" and the Jets won so that counts more. There's no spoken direction that Ivory is now the official primary back and that Powell won't play. This will still be a committee and one that has only produced a single touchdown all year.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The moderate passing stats are watered down even further in this unit. Jeremy Kerley comes off a season best 97 yards and a score on eight catches but he was held to only two catches for 19 yards the previous game. David Nelson (4-80) also enjoyed a far better game than usual but Stephen Hill (1-17) is getting worse by the week. . Santonio Holmes remains out and there are no safe plays using these wideouts in any given game.

TIGHT ENDS: Kellen Winslow remains out on suspension but Jeff Cumberland hasn't done much with the opportunity. After scoring in weeks four and five, he's only averaged around 50 yards the past two weeks. Nothing more than a low-end bye week replacement.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bengals just lost RCB Leon Hall for the season and that should benefit Stephen Hill if he can actually take advantage. Hill's been nearly worthless for the last four weeks and is not reliable. The Bengals at home have been great against the pass only allowing two touchdowns over three games there and those went against the Steelers, Packers and Patriots. There are no matchups here that appear likely to do much. Smith is a mediocre passer and worse than any who have played in Cincy so far this year. The Bengals front line is always tough and even more so when at home. Expect marginal stats here.

The Bengals have allowed four scores to tight ends but every one happened in an away game, not at home.

WHAT TO WATCH: The offense should be challenged to do much this week so it will be interesting to see how they use Chris Ivory when he will have less success. This game should help define if there has been any permanent shift in the backfield.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 16 25 24 13 7 27
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 16 10 16 16 9 10

 

1 @CHI 21-24 10 @BAL -
2 PIT 20-10 11 CLE -
3 GB 34-30 12 BYE WEEK
4 @CLE 6-17 13 @SD -
5 NE 13-6 14 IND -
6 @BUF 27-24 15 @PIT -
7 @DET 27-24 16 MIN -
8 NYJ - 17 BAL -
9 @MIA - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Andy Dalton 240,2
RB Giovani Bernard 30 4-40
WR A.J. Green 5-70,1
WR Marvin Jones 4-60
WR Mohamed Sanu 2-30
TE Tyler Eifert 2-10,1
TE Jermaine Gresham 4-20
PK Mike Nugent 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bengals are on a three game winning streak and come off back-to-back 27-24 wins in Buffalo and Detroit. The Bengals are in the driver's seat in the AFC North but are only 1-1 in divisional play somehow losing in Cleveland. The good news is that Andy Dalton shook off the rust early in the year and have posted two straight great games while the offense is back to scoring points. This week is a good test to see if the offense really is back to better form or if the two road wins were against lesser opponents.

QUARTERBACKS: Andy Dalton was struggling to get much done over the first five weeks when he only totaled five passing touchdowns and averaged just 243 yards per game. But against the Bills and Lions, Dalton threw for over 330 yards and scored three times in each. Back at home against a good passing defense should be a good test to see if his improvement is real or just two good games back-to-back. The difference wasn't from throwing more passes, it was being able to get deeper completions.

RUNNING BACKS: The split backfield is still average at best and only that when combined. BenJarvus Green-Ellis slogs along with moderate yardage as a runner, nothing as a receiver but at least his two scores came during the last two home games. Giovani Bernard isn't doing anything as a runner lately but stepped up his role as a receiver with 11 catches for 104 yards and one score over the last two weeks. The problem this week is that Bernard's lowest output as a receiver was in his home games. Bernard's two rushing touchdowns came in home games though.

WIDE RECEIVERS: After four disappointing games, A.J. Green rolled up two 100+ yard efforts recently with a touchdown in each. Of his five touchdowns on the year, only one came in a home game and never more than 61 yards there as well. Marvin Jones was a nonfactor until these last two weeks when he too scored in each while ending with around 60 yards. Mohamed Sanu hasn't scored this year and is getting worse as Jones improves. Sanu comes off a season worst one catch in Detroit. Green has been at his best the last two weeks. And he was at his worst for the month previous.

TIGHT ENDS: Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert combine for decent yardage each week but individually are still below fantasy relevance. Eifert comes off his first NFL touchdown and that was the only score by a tight end all year. Marginal value at best in all other weeks.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jets secondary is above average but less formidable away from home. They allowed six passing scores in the last two road games and that was only to the Titans and Falcons. The rushing defense remains solid regardless of venue and while they gave up six scores to running backs, no runner has produced more than 65 rush yards. This is a great test to see if Dalton really is better. The Jets are good but very mortal on the road. Dalton, Green and Bernard are all moderate starts this week but with some upside.

WHAT TO WATCH: This team always wins or loses based on what happens when Dalton throws to Green. One more good game from those two this week and figure on the Bengals being there at the end of the season as a contender.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 15 15 11 15 26 24
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 7 6 14 17 21 28

WEEK 8 CAR at TB (THU) DAL at DET NYJ at CIN SEA at STL (MON)
ATL at ARI GB at MIN PIT at OAK On Bye:
BUF at NO MIA at NE SF at JAC BAL, CHI, HOU
*UPDATED CLE at KC NYG at PHI WAS at DEN IND, SD, TEN


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