FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 9
Steve Gallo
November 1, 2013
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Want to understand the game better, hunt for future break out players or try to spot trouble before it happens? “Beyond TDs and Tackles”  will be offering  a handful of players and situations that you should consider when you are watching the games or even just looking at the box score. Everyone knows which players blew up over the weekend but you can gain advantages by following the changes as they start and get better definition on how to value players. Have any questions? Just hit me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL or email me at gallo@thehuddle.com.

Randall Cunningham and the running QBs fantasy value

Running QBs like RG3, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick, to name a few, gleen added fantasy value from their rushing totals. This isn’t exactly a news flash, but a running QB can really pad his fantasy stats. It’s one thing to want to land a 5,000 yard passer, but a QB that runs can throw for a lot less but put up similar points due to his rushing yards. If you look at Randall Cunningham you’ll see he threw for 29,979 yards in his career. He also rushed the ball for 4,928 yards with 35 rushing TDs. Fantasy point wise Cunningham’s passing yards, rushing yards and rushing TDs add up to 1901.96. To put that in perspective, Tom Brady has passed for 46,630 yards in his career. Those passing yards are the equivalent of 1,865.2 fantasy points. It’s easy to see that Cunningham wasn’t the prolific passer that Brady is, but those rushing yards and TDs are a great equalizer – fantasy wise that is. Here’s a list of the top rushing QBs based on fantasy points scored off rushes. Included is a column to show how those points would extrapolate to passing yards. Terrelle Pryor is on pace for 3,064 passing yards and 1053 rushing yards. 3,000 passing yards in today’s NFL isn’t anything special, but from a fantasy standpoint, when you add in those rushing yards, it’s comparable to a QB passing for 5,697 yards – Peyton Manning is on pace to throw for 5,838 yards.

QB Fantasy Pts From Rushes Rush Yards Converted to Pass Yds Current Passing Yards Pace Current Rushing Yards Pace Converted Passing Yards Pace
Colin Kaepernick 47.4 1,185 3,168 588 4,638
Terrelle Pryor 45.5 1,138 3,064 1,053 5,697
Cam Newton 40.9 1,023 3,547 523 4,855
Andrew Luck 36.3 908 3,616 418 4,661
Russell Wilson 33.9 848 3,256 678 4,951
Alex Smith 31.8 795 3,590 516 4,880

The main thing that I’m trying to point out is to make sure that you aren’t discrediting QBs that are lacking in passing yards – that is, if they’re making it up with their feet. Pryor might require you to have a supply of Pepto on hand, but fantasy wise Pryor’s a viable option for those without top QBs. And if Alex Smith is available on waivers or via trade, he’s a solid option with nice matchups the rest of the way too.

He’s On Pace For What? Wait, Who?

You might be surprised at the pace Kendall Wright is on this year.

Kendall Wright Catches Receiving Yards
Current 40 433
16 Game Pace 91 989

Last year only 11 players had more catches than the 91 Wright is on pace for, and 21 had more yards than he’s on pace for. If you are looking for a WR to add before your trade deadline, Kendall Wright is someone you can probably get at a decent price since many don’t realize how well he’s performing. If he had more than 1 TD they would, but there’s nothing wrong with solid/consistent catches and yards.

He’s Averaging How Many Yards Per Game? Wait, Who?

After 8 weeks, Calvin Johnson leads WRs in YPG with 117.6, and Julio Jones – I feel your pain because I own him in a league too – is second with 116.0 YPG. You’ll never guess who #3 is. Nope it’s not AJ Green, Jordy Nelson or Jimmy Graham. Justin Blackmon is 3rd in YPG among WRs with 103.8 YPG.

Justin Blackmon Catches Targets Yards TDs Fantasy Points (PPR)
Week 5 5 9 136 1 24.6
Week 6 14 20 190 0 33.0
Week 7 6 9 58 0 11.8
Week 8 4 10 31 0 7.0
Total 29 48 415 1 76.4
16 Game Pace 116 192 1,660 4 306

Use the fact that Justin Blackmon had a poor week 8 and has a bye this week to try and land him at a discounted price. His performance shows variance, but the Jaguars will be playing from behind plenty, and that will ensure that Blackmon remains a top fantasy option for the rest of the season.

To Gronk Or Not To Gronk…

Gronkowski put up a hefty 19.4 points in his return to the field in week 7. Week 8 wasn’t as kind for Gronkowski owners as he logged just 4.7 points. What worried me prior to his return was how much playing time he would see and how that would impact his fantasy value. In week 7 Gronkowski played in 48 (64%) of the Patriots 75 offensive plays, and in week he 8 he was only on the field for 33 (50%) of his teams 66 offensive plays. Take a look at this chart as I try to spin his week 8 performance in a positive light.

Rob Gronkowski Snaps Fantasy Pts/Snap Fantasy Pts (PPR)
Week 7 48 .404 19.4
Week 8 33 .142 4.7
Total 81 .297 24.1
Projected Low 50 .150 7.5
Projected High 80 .400 32
Projected Average 75 .250 18.75

I fully expect to see Gronk’s snaps ramp up, and as they do he’ll become a much safer fantasy option. Keep in mind that last year Gronkowsi played in 750 snaps and scored 187.8 fantasy points in 2012. That breaks down to .250 fantasy points/snap. The snaps will come, and the points will follow.

Something’s Gotta Give

No Bengals this week – they played on Thursday. Instead this week we’ll take a look at the Titans and Rams. Especially with the Titans saying they want to get Shonn Greene 15+ carries per game. Will those carries be an opportunity realized or opportunity wasted? Take a look at how the Titans rushing offense stacks up against the Rams rushing defense.

2013 Regluar Season Play Direction Report for Tennessee Titans: Rushing Offense

Bills Offense

2013 Regluar Season Play Direction Report for St. Louis Rams: Rushing Defense

Bengals Defense

As you can see, the Titans run the ball well over LT and Left End, and the Rams don’t yield many yards on those types of runs, so…something’s gotta give. The Titans don’t run often or well over right guard, but there’s an opportunity to take advantage of the Rams defense on those runs.


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