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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 9 CIN at MIA (THU) KC at BUF PIT at NE CHI at GB (MON)
ATL at CAR MIN at DAL SD at WAS On Bye:
BAL at CLE NO at NYJ TB at SEA ARI, DEN, DET
*UPDATED IND at HOU PHI at OAK TEN at STL JAC, NYG, SF

Prediction: KC 24, BUF 17 (Line: KC by 3.5)

Update: Thad Lewis is doubtful to play with a rib injury and the flu which would likely end up giving Jeff Tuel the start. I am making that change in the projections but it won't be certain until game time and seriously if you are down to using the Bills quarterback against the Chiefs what can the rest of your team look like? I am downgrading Stevie Johnson as well. C.J. Spiller was able to practice this week and is expected to play so I am adding him back into the projections.

Dwayne Bowe was limited by a sore groin but is expected to play.

The Chiefs remain a perfect 8-0 as the last unbeaten team in the NFL and yet their last two wins were at home and only by a touchdown or less against very weak teams. The 3-5 Bills are 2-2 at home and also tend to play in very close games as well. The Chiefs will no doubt stumble eventually but with only a bye next week the focus should be here.

The Bills won 35-17 when the Chiefs visited last year.

1 @JAC 28-2 10 BYE WEEK
2 DAL 17-16 11 @DEN -
3 @PHI 26--16 12 SD -
4 NYG 31-7 13 DEN -
5 @TEN 26-17 14 @WAS -
6 OAK 24-7 15 @OAK -
7 HOU 17-16 16 IND -
8 CLE 23-17 17 @SD -
9 @BUF - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 30 240,2
RB Jamaal Charles 90 5-40,1
WR Donnie Avery 5-70
WR Dwayne Bowe 5-60,1
TE Anthony Fasano 2-20
TE Sean McGrath 2-30

Pregame Notes: This is only the fourth road game for the Chiefs but they won the other three by at least ten points each time and the Bills are hardly one of the better teams in the NFL. The entirety of the season is probably going to come down to the two games against the Broncos in weeks 11 and 13 because the team that takes the division is almost certain to be hosting the AFC Championship.

QUARTERBACKS: Alex Smith is just what the offense needs apparently - a game manager who doesn't commit many mistakes. He passed for two touchdowns versus the Browns last week but those were his first passing scores since week four. All told, Smith threw touchdowns in just four of the eight games played though each time it was for two or three touchdowns. His only road game with a score was in the season opener.

RUNNING BACKS: Jamaal Charles did not score against the Browns and it was the first time all year that he failed to get a touchdown in a game. But he rolled up 120 total yards like usual and remains the #1 fantasy running back. The running backs who did score was fullback Anthony Sherman and Dexter McCluster on receptions. Neither merit any fantasy consideration though McCluster has suddenly turned in over 60 receiving yards for two straight weeks. Both were at home so we'll see if a road game can be as successful for the highly inconsistent McCluster.

WIDE RECEIVERS: It speaks volumes when the only passing scores for the last month both went to little used running backs. Dwayne Bowe only caught one pass for seven yards last week and that wasn't even his worst game this year. Donnie Avery chugs along with mostly 30 yard efforts and no other wideouts matter on this team. This is one of the least used units in the NFL and there's been just one touchdown caught by a wideout since week two.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value. Sean McGrath and Anthony Fasano now evenly share the four or five passes per game. One touchdown on the year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This should be what Smith needs to generate some points. The Bulls have allowed 20 passing touchdowns already this year and high yardage to those who bother. The rushing defense is actually very good and only given up one rushing score to a running back this year. Charles is a must start of course but in a pinch Alex Smith should at least score once or twice here. And Dwayne Bowe gets about as good of a matchup as he could possibly hope to get. The Bills allow over two touchdown passes to wideouts per game. That's all a risk outside of Charles but the situation is as good as it will get.

WHAT TO WATCH: Simply enough more passing than what we have been seeing. The Chiefs defense will play well enough to keep the game score low but Smith has to do something here to win.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 17 1 31 27 10 1
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 29 7 31 12 25 21

 

1 NE 21-23 10 @PIT -
2 CAR 24-23 11 NYJ -
3 @NYJ 20-27 12 BYE WEEK
4 BAL 23-20 13 ATL -
5 @CLE 24-37 14 @TB -
6 CIN 24-27 15 @JAC -
7 @MIA 23-21 16 MIA -
8 @NO 17-35 17 @NE -
9 KC - ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Fred Jackson 40,1 4-30
RB C.J. Spiller 40 2-10
WR Marquise Goodwin 2-30
WR Robert Woods 3-20
TE Scott Chandler 4-30
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Bills stumble along always competitive in every game but usually just a little short on the scoreboard. Until last week they had scored between 20 and 24 points in every single game - there's consistency. Unfortunately the schedule takes a tough turn now with the Chiefs, the Steelers and Jets all bringing top defenses. As a sign of things not going their way, the Bills get to play both the Buccaneers and Jaguars this year and yet both are on the road.

QUARTERBACKS: Thaddeus Lewis has started three games so far and while he is not terrible, he is certainly not a positive with each game in the low 200's passing and just one score per week on average. This will be only his second home game though and his first was his only two touchdown game. Hard to see that against the Chiefs.

E.J. Manuel is improving but still not expected before week 11 if not week 13 after the bye.

RUNNING BACKS: C.J. Spiller was held out last week with what is now being referred to as a high ankle sprain. His status won't be known until late in the week but seems most likely to have him miss a second game. Fred Jackson doesn't do much for yardage but he has scored five times over the last five weeks. For being a 32-year old back with an injury history he's really played well above expectations as he usually does. Tashard Choice helps out with six or seven runs for marginal yardage in recent games. Jackson was more productive when Spiller was doing well. He's been only a moderate play when Spiller is not there.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Marquise Goodwin injured his elbow but the x-rays were negative and he's expected to play this week. The rookie speedster posted around 50 yards each in his last two games. Robert Woods is nearly invisible for three weeks now and he never gained more than 24 yards in any game. Stevie Johnson just scored in New Orleans and has been the only productive wideout but suffered a hip flexor. He is tentatively expected to play this week but would be limited. Johnson has been the only safe play for a Bills receiver and even if he is just limited it has a big impact on the passing offense.

TIGHT ENDS: Scott Chandler only scored twice so far but comes off a nice 72 yard effort in New Orleans where he caught a season best seven passes. He's been consistent around two or three catches per week until the Saints loss. If Johnson is out or significantly limited it would likely give Chandler a bump in targets.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Problem here is that the Chiefs have only allowed eight passing scores over eight games played. And no team has passed for over 300 yards on the Chiefs. Those scores almost always end up with a wideout and six times the Chiefs have allowed 80+ yards and a touchdown to the opponents wideout. This would seem to be a nice spot for Johnson if he is healthy even if literally no one else did much. As it stands, the only reasonable fantasy starts are Jackson as a lower end flex hoping to get a touchdown and Johnson if he is active and not too limited.

WHAT TO WATCH: The Bills really have to hope for at trap game here. If they can hang with the Chiefs and not commit turnovers, they can remain competitive. And then lose by a field goal like usual.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 28 8 27 23 13 12
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 11 4 12 1 1 7

WEEK 9 CIN at MIA (THU) KC at BUF PIT at NE CHI at GB (MON)
ATL at CAR MIN at DAL SD at WAS On Bye:
BAL at CLE NO at NYJ TB at SEA ARI, DEN, DET
*UPDATED IND at HOU PHI at OAK TEN at STL JAC, NYG, SF


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