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Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 10
Steve Gallo
November 8, 2013
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Want to understand the game better, hunt for future break out players or try to spot trouble before it happens? “Beyond TDs and Tackles”  will be offering  a handful of players and situations that you should consider when you are watching the games or even just looking at the box score. Everyone knows which players blew up over the weekend but you can gain advantages by following the changes as they start and get better definition on how to value players. Have any questions? Just hit me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL or email me at gallo@thehuddle.com.

November Reign

CJ2K, I mean CJ1k, wait, or is it CJ?K, forget it, we’ll tackle that later…Chris Johnson scored 32 fantasy points in week 9 (November 3rd) against the Rams.– he scored a grand total of 32.9 points in September. October saw Johnson start to warm things up as he scored 47.4 points in three games that month.  Over his career, November has been kind to the former 2,000 yard rusher. Here’s a look at how he’s performed in November for his entire career.

Week 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 TOTAL
8 -- 37.9 -- -- -- 37.9
9 28.1 31.0 Bye 15.0 25.1 99.2
10 4.3 44.2 19.4 27.4 20.4 115.7
11 12.8 15.1 15.6 5.8 Bye 49.3
12 9.1 27.6 2.7 20.3 12.9 72.6
13 27.4 -- -- -- -- 27.4
TOTAL/PPG Avg. 81.7/16.34 155.8/31.16 37.7/12.57 68.5/17.13 58.4/19.47 402.1/20.11

Even if you take Johnson’s 2,000+ yard 2009 season out, he still averages 16.4 PPG in November. If you put any weight in trends like this then Johnson is a clear buy. His owner will point to his big week 9 in attempt to squeeze more out of you, but you should make it a point to tell him how inconsistent he is and that you are taking all the risk. Tell him you need to gamble on him having a big week every now and then, or whatever else you can come up with so he feels like he’s unloading a headache on you. Then you can ride CJ?K Mr. November to the playoffs.

Gronk Watch…

Last week I put together the following chart to show how Gronkowski is performing on a per snap basis. Until he gets back to playing full-time I figured I’d keep updating his weekly progress. I think it’s safe to say that had the game not gotten out of hand he would have played in more snaps last week. Since returning to the field Gronkowski is averaging an unbelievable .411 PPS. That’s a pace he can’t keep up. At that pace, in the 750 snaps he played in last year, he’d have scored 308.25 fantasy points.

Rob Gronkowski Snaps/% Snaps Played PPS(Points/Snap) Fantasy Pts (PPR)
Week 7 48/64% .404 19.4
Week 8 33/50% .142 4.7
Week 9 49/64% .598 29.3
Total 130/60% .411 53.4
Projected Low 50 .150 7.5
Projected High 80 .400 32
Projected Average 75 .250 18.75

Dude, Where’s My Sack?

 If you play in IDP leagues you know how frustrating it can be when you see your player tackle the ball carrier only to have that tackle given to the wrong player. Frustrating to say the least. What’s even more frustrating is when you’re player tackles the QB behind the line of scrimmage and you don’t get a sack. That’s right, just because a QB gets tackled behind the line of scrimmage it doesn’t mean it’s a sack. For it to be a sack it needs to be a pass play in the eye of the official scorer. This past week there was such a play that prompted one of our forum users to post the following; “In the 4th Quarter of Colts/Texans, Case Keenum ran a bootleg and was tackled behind the line of scrimmage. Shouldn't that be a sack?  Angerer does not appear to have gotten credit for sack.” The short answer is no, it was not a sack. The reason? There was no intent to pass. To help explain and show how an official scorer makes the determination if a play is a sack or not, I turned to one of my contacts at the league office and he provided me with the following images and explanations (see the captions).

sack1

“#55[top of circle] is circled, he was the center for this play. He’s three yards downfield, if Keenum throws the ball Houston gets and illegal downfield pass penalty. That’s the first thing we look for: is there an offensive lineman downfield.”

sack2

“I’ve circled #11 Posey. He’s blocking downfield, he can’t do that on a passing play.
Other things we look for: were there any eligible receivers running routes? (No, on this play.) Did the quarterback make an apparent attempt to pass at any point during the play? (No, on this play.)”

All Scorers Are Not Created Equal

It would be nice if official scorers were consistent in how they score tackles in a game, but alas they are not. Some official scorers – each stadium has their own crew – award very few assisted tackles, while others give them out like candy on Halloween. Some people might think that a scorer that assigns a bunch of assists is a bad thing, but quite the contrary, those scorers help to pad an IDP players stats. Thanks to my intern, Chris Carlton (@Chris_Carlton) for compiling assisted tackle stats by stadium for me so I can present to you how assists were scored in 2012. Chris is feverishly working on 2013 for me, and in the next few weeks I’ll have some additional charts to present the data in different ways. Until then, here’s a chart that shows the average assists/stadium for 2012.

chart

The Kansas City official scorer was the stingiest in the league in 2012 when it came to awarding assisted tackles. For the entire season, between the Chiefs and their opponents, he awarded just 51 assisted tackles. That’s 51 for the entire season! As I am writing this, the Vikings official scorer just awarded 81 assisted tackles in their game against Washington on Thursday Night Football.

Something’s Gotta Give

The Cardinals play in a tough division and they tend to get overlooked, just like their defense usually gets overlooked. Houston lost a heartbreaker of a game last week, and this week going to play Arizona in the desert pits a Texans strength (running the ball) against a Cardinals strength (run defense). So, something’s gotta give.

2013 Regluar Season Play Direction Report for Houston Texans: Rushing Offense

Bills Offense

2013 Regluar Season Play Direction Report for Arizona Cardinals: Rushing Defense

Bengals Defense

This game will likely be decided by which team wins the war in the middle. If it’s the Cardinals win then fantasy owners will likely be losers too as Ben Tate and Arian Foster (if he plays) will likely struggle to put up strong fantasy numbers. The Blue circle is to highlight how few running plays have been run in that direction against the Cardinals. 


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