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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 10 WAS at MIN (THU) DAL at NO JAC at TEN STL at IND
CIN at BAL HOU at ARI SEA at ATL MIA at TB (MON)
BUF at PIT DEN at SD OAK at NYG On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at SF DET at CHI PHI at GB CLE, KC, NE, NYJ

Prediction: JAC 10, TEN 27 (Line: TEN by 13 )

Players of Interest: Mike Brown

The 0-8 Jaguars continue their quest for perfection by heading to Tennessee and giving the 4-4 Titans their next win. The Jaguars have not even been remotely competitive. It is always a bad sign when the points allowed are three times bigger than the points for. The Jags have lost by 14 or more points in all but one game. It is Christmas in Tennessee.

These teams traded home wins last year with the Titans winning 38-20 in Tennessee.

1 KC 2-28 10 @TEN -
2 @OAK 9-19 11 ARI -
3 @SEA 17-45 12 @HOU -
4 IND 3-37 13 @CLE -
5 @STL 20-34 14 HOU -
6 @DEN 19-35 15 BUF -
7 SD 6-24 16 TEN -
8 SF 10-42 17 @IND -
9 BYE WEEK ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 190
WR Ace Sanders 2-30
WR Cecil Shorts 5-60
PK Josh Scobee 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jaguars cannot catch a break. Even on their bye they lose their best receiver. Justin Blackmon was suspended "indefinitely" but can file for reinstatement next season. That just serves to strip a talent-starved team of their best player. The first win is coming but without Blackmon it is going to be a huge trap game. The Jags have a realistic shot at 0-16 now made more possible thanks to Blackmon.

QUARTERBACKS: Chad Henne remains the starter even with Blaine Gabbert healthy but he's only thrown for three touchdowns over seven games. His yardage can top 300 yards versus a soft secondary but the scores are just never there. Losing Justin Blackmon just makes this passing attack even worse and maybe never good enough for 2014.

Chad Henne passed for 298 yards and two scores in Tennessee for 2012.

RUNNING BACKS: As long as the opponent is above average, they tend now to under prepare knowing that they can still beat the Jaguars (and they always do). So Maurice Jones-Drew actually produces better stats against great teams than bad ones. Granted he only has two touchdowns all year (in Denver and in Seattle of course). He still has never topped 75 rushing yards in a game but could see higher receptions now that Blackmon is out.

WIDE RECEIVERS: You cannot underestimate how important that Justin Blackmon was both as a productive receiver and as a player that the defense focused and would allow lesser coverage to the others. Cecil Shorts now becomes the main man though he has just one touchdown all year. Ace Sanders is still too small and raw and will remain in the slot while Mike Brown will take over the #2 spot now. This could help out the fantasy fortunes for Shorts at least for receptions. He's simply the only decent wideout that the Jaguars now have.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Titans are already top five against the pass and #1 against the wide receivers of which the Jaguars are growing chronically short. The only fantasy play here is Maurice Jones-Drew getting yards and maybe a score at the end of the game when the Jags have no business running the ball but even they just want the game to end.

WHAT TO WATCH: Mike Brown will be in a position where he could get late game trash catches and yards and look productive. Worth watching though only great pass defenses are on the horizon for the next five games.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 32 20 32 32 31
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 4 25 1 23 5 14

 

1 @PIT 16-9 10 JAC -
2 @HOU 24-30 11 IND -
3 SD 20-17 12 @OAK -
4 NYJ 38-13 13 @IND -
5 KC 17-26 14 @DEN -
6 @SEA 13-20 15 ARI -
7 SF 17-31 16 @JAC -
8 BYE WEEK 17 HOU -
9 @STL 28-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
TEN vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Jake Locker 20 210,1
RB Shonn Greene 30,1 1-10
WR Kris Durham 4-40,1
WR Justin Hunter 2-20,1
WR Nate Washington 4-50
WR Kendall Wright 5-60
TE Delanie Walker 4-30

Pregame Notes: The Titans come off their win over the Rams that stopped a three game losing skid and this week should give the Titans a winning record if only for the final time this season. The offense has sputtered along with absolutely no help from the schedule that just got worse with every matchup. This week is maybe the final time to see what the offense should look like at least until the finale with the Texans. Most teams are under preparing to play the Jaguars knowing that they can and will win. The Titans are more likely to go for the throat and win bigger since it is one of the very few instances they have that option.

QUARTERBACKS: Jake Locker should enjoy the second half of the season at least a bit more since he won't be facing quite so bad a string of top secondaries. Locker's turned in multiple scores in every home game so far though the yardage is typically low. Given that they face the worst rush defense in the NFL, chances are Locker is in for another mediocre week because the team won't need anything more.

RUNNING BACKS: This week should be defining for Chris Johnson. He's struggled greatly in many games this year and yet in fairness was facing many of the top rushing defenses in the league. When he finally hit a softer opponent in the Rams, he blew up for 150 yards and two scores with three catches for 20 yards more. Johnson's scored twice as a receiver but his season has been a disappointment. This week should change that if only for seven days. If Johnson cannot crush the #32 defense against the run, then there is something far worse than the schedule going on in Jacksonville. Of course the coaches want to involve Shonn Greene more for some unknown reason and he ran nine times for 38 yards and a score against the Rams as well.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The lethargic passing all year leaves this unit with marginal fantasy value even in a good game. Kendall Wright is the best of the bunch and yet he's only scored once all year and still has not topped 100 yards so far. Nate Washington spent two weeks over the century mark and even scored twice on the Jets. And in the four games since he's averaged only about 27 yards per game including last week when he failed to catch any passes. The curse of Kenny Britt continues and will stay in place until they release him. Britt was allowed to play last week but failed to catch his only pass.

TIGHT ENDS: Delanie Walker has no fantasy value beyond the very occasional touchdown catch. He's not worth a roster spot.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The exciting part of playing the Jaguars is that it is like looking at the menu and ordering how you get to score touchdowns. As noted - the Jags are horrible against the run and that is partially a function of every opponent wanting to get their win over and just running out the second half. This is the defense that Knowshon Moreno scored three touchdowns on when they last played away from Jacksonville. Expect good to great yardage and at least one score from Chris Johnson. Anything less should kick off a conspiracy investigation. Locker and Wright are only marginal plays since neither has to do that well to win the game and therefore carry risk of marginal production.

WHAT TO WATCH: If you cannot run all over the #32 defense against running backs as the visitor, you shouldn't be allowed to own football.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 16 21 24 27 25 8
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 25 32 15 28 21 30

WEEK 10 WAS at MIN (THU) DAL at NO JAC at TEN STL at IND
CIN at BAL HOU at ARI SEA at ATL MIA at TB (MON)
BUF at PIT DEN at SD OAK at NYG On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at SF DET at CHI PHI at GB CLE, KC, NE, NYJ


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