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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 10 WAS at MIN (THU) DAL at NO JAC at TEN STL at IND
CIN at BAL HOU at ARI SEA at ATL MIA at TB (MON)
BUF at PIT DEN at SD OAK at NYG On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at SF DET at CHI PHI at GB CLE, KC, NE, NYJ

Prediction: STL 10, IND 24 (Line: IND by 11)

Players of Interest: Jared Cook

Update: Trent Richardson missed practices this week to rest his ankle and then put in a full day on Friday. He is expected to play with no more limitation than any week.

The 3-6 Rams are on a three game losing streak and are only 1-3 in road games. The 6-3 Colts are 3-1 at home and won their last two games. Bottom line to this game is that losing even a stud wideout is not as bad as losing a quarterback.

1 ARI 27-24 10 @IND -
2 @ATL 24-31 11 BYE WEEK
3 @DAL 7-31 12 CHI -
4 SF 11-35 13 @SF -
5 JAC 34-20 14 @ARI -
6 @HOU 38-13 15 NO -
7 @CAR 15-30 16 TB -
8 SEA 9-14 17 @SEA -
9 TEN 21-28 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Zac Stacy 70,1 5-40
WR Chris Givens 4-50
WR Austin Pettis 2-30
TE Jared Cook 4-40
PK Greg Zuerlein 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Rams discovered who their running back is even though that needed half a season to get there. But losing Sam Bradford is a death knell for a team that did not need a lot to push it over the edge. A bye waits on the other side of this week but then the final stretch is going to be even harder than the first half of the season. Ending the year in Seattle only seems appropriate.

QUARTERBACKS: Kellen Clemens is two games into his role as the starting quarterback and has just one touchdown and three turnovers to show for it. And those were both home games. Clemens tossed one score on the Titans but topped out at 210 yards. The rushing effort is helping the offense but the decline in what was already a bad passing scheme is something the Rams cannot weather.

RUNNING BACKS: Despite all the problems of 2013, at least Zac Stacy provides a new and much needed weapon in the offense. He's rushed for over 100 yards in the last two games and just scored his first two rushing touchdowns in the loss to the Titans. Stacy is also providing Clemens with a target on passing downs and caught six passes for 51 yards last week. He is the only must start on this team.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Chris Givens is the most used target for Clemens but that has only ended with four catches and around 60 yards in both starts. This is one of the least productive wide receiver units in the NFL and it is not improving with a change in quarterback. The only touchdown pass thrown by Clemens did not go to a wide receiver. This group has lost all fantasy value at least for now and considering the upcoming schedule, it is almost certainly permanent.

TIGHT ENDS: Lance Kendricks fractured his finger against the Titans and is expected to miss at least this week and potentially several others. He was the primary blocking tight end and that doesn't help the rushing effort. It could help Jared Cook if only by removing a target in the red zone since Kendricks caught three touchdowns earlier this year. Cook has been the second most used target behind only Givens. He caught a touchdown last week but so far both games with Clemens have ended with just three catches for around 35 yards. Cook has also outright dropped more than a couple of passes this year but being targeted by the new quarterback can only be a positive.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts have been weaker against the pass but this is not a good passing attack coming to town. The only reasonable start is Stacy but he faces one of the better rushing defenses in the league. The Colts have also only allowed one touchdown to a tight end. You can start Stacy but if he can top 80 yards or score it will be either a big accomplishment or slop at the end of the game. There's just no other player on this team worth considering.

WHAT TO WATCH: Be nice to see either Clemens throw even more to Cook and for him to actually catch them all. His value to the team could be immense if he would just hang onto the ball.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points STL 25 27 27 5 24 13
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 16 4 23 10 13 1

 

1 OAK 21-17 10 STL -
2 MIA 20-24 11 @TEN -
3 @SF 27-7 12 @ARI -
4 @JAC 37-3 13 TEN -
5 SEA 34-28 14 @CIN -
6 @SD 9-19 15 HOU -
7 DEN 39-33 16 @KC -
8 BYE WEEK 17 JAC -
9 @HOU 27-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND vs STL Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 220,2
RB Trent Richardson 50,1 1-10
WR T.Y. Hilton 5-70,1
TE Coby Fleener 4-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts have a two game lead in the AFC South over the Titans and they play in weeks 11 and 13. Win those two games and the Colts can walk their way to the division title and since they are likely to remain behind the Colts and Chiefs, they may even end up resting players at least in the final game. The impact of losing Reggie Wayne will linger and his value may be more apparent in those Titans matchups. This week? Not a big deal.

QUARTERBACKS: Andrew Luck always scores in a home game if not more than once and he just turned in his best game of the year when he posted 271 yards and three touchdowns on the Texans. This will be his lightest matchup at home this year but the offense needs to work on replacing Wayne anyway. No reason to hold back this week just because the Titans are up next.

RUNNING BACKS: Hard to characterize the trade for Trent Richardson as anything but a mistake. Richardson comes off a season worst 20 yards on eight carries in Houston where Donald Brown gained 49 yards on just six runs. Donald Brown. The guy they've been meaning to cut for years. The chance of a rushing score gets lower and lower every game and it has been a month since one happened. The Colts are mixing in Donald Brown more each week and getting better results for it. Barring any change, this is a mediocre backfield that is only getting the workload more split up each week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Reggie Wayne says he will rehab and return to play next year at the age of 35. No word if the owners were nodding or shaking their heads but Wayne seems to be sincere. In his place the Colts were okay in Houston when T.Y. Hilton caught seven passes for 121 yards and three touchdowns. Hilton has topped the 100 yard mark three times this season but then remained below 50 yards in all other games. This move to starting should help him offer far more consistency and the first returns say that the Colts may be okay even without Wayne.

Darrius Heyward-Bey was thought to have a concussion but later was reported that it wasn't a concussion and that he should be available this week. He's been a nonfactor all year anyway and scored only once. Lavon Brazil (1-9) and Griff Whalen (3-32) are both getting more playing time now but so far doing nothing with it. The Colts need more than Hilton. One of the others needs to emerge as at least an average receiver. The rushing game is mediocre and the passing offense cannot afford to just rely on Hilton.

TIGHT ENDS: Coby Fleener is getting more passes lately though he still has yet to catch more than five in any game and scored only once in the last month. He's been stuck around 20 or 30 yards in most games and as a second-year player, he's already about as developed as he is going to be.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Rams rank well against the pass mostly because opponents have better success running the ball and the Rams already gave up 11 touchdowns to running backs. An ineffective offense leads to better field position and shorter drives. Andrew Luck should post at least one score and maybe two but the running game is facing one of the weakest defenses and it could actually look decent for once. Luck and Hilton are the only must plays but Richardson and Brown both could serve as low-end flex plays.

WHAT TO WATCH: Still need a better feel about how the Colts will replace Reggie Wayne. There has to be more than just Hilton with consistency and production.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 11 22 14 18 6 19
Preventing Fantasy Points STL 11 30 19 2 9 19

WEEK 10 WAS at MIN (THU) DAL at NO JAC at TEN STL at IND
CIN at BAL HOU at ARI SEA at ATL MIA at TB (MON)
BUF at PIT DEN at SD OAK at NYG On Bye:
*UPDATED CAR at SF DET at CHI PHI at GB CLE, KC, NE, NYJ


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