FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 11
Steve Gallo
November 15, 2013
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Want to understand the game better, hunt for future break out players or try to spot trouble before it happens? “Beyond TDs and Tackles”  will be offering  a handful of players and situations that you should consider when you are watching the games or even just looking at the box score. Everyone knows which players blew up over the weekend but you can gain advantages by following the changes as they start and get better definition on how to value players. Have any questions? Just hit me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL or email me at gallo@thehuddle.com.

Do You Believe In Matchups?!?!?! (said in Al Michael’s voice)

It’s no secret that matchups are key in fantasy football. It’s also no secret that we’re human and that means we have a hard time looking at things rationally at times. Either because we are frustrated with an underperforming player (Ray Rice) or we’re smitten with a big week by a waiver wire darling (Mark Ingram…oh you know he was a hot commodity this week). You might be worried about starting players like Ryan Mathews (faces the #1 team in points allowed to RBs), Rashard Mendenhall (faces the #3 team in points allowed to RBs) or even Ray Rice (faces the #6 team in points allowed to RBs). Maybe you should be, maybe you shouldn’t be.

I decided to do was take a look at how RBs did with matchups against the top three teams in fantasy points allowed to RBs starting from week 4. The reason I picked week 4 is because after three weeks we start to see trends. Note that the ranking listed below is where that team ranked in points allowed going into the week the player played. A ranking of 1 means that team was giving up the most fantasy points, and a ranking of 32 is just the opposite, that’s the team that’s allowing the fewest points to RBs.

The first table shows the top 3 matchups and the second table shows the three worst matchups for each week listed. The reason you see teams ranked outside the top or bottom three is because of bye weeks, which is why I’m referencing top 3 for the week. As an example, this week (11) the #1 (Dallas) and #3 (Rams) teams in points allowed to RBs are on a bye. So, that leaves the Dolphins (#2), Vikings (#4), and Jaguars (#5) as the top 3 RB matchups. I won’t point anything good or bad out…I’ll leave it up to you to draw your own conclusion about how the best and worst matchups shake out.

Players listed in RED were injured and didn’t return to their respective game.
Name Week Opponent Fantasy Pts
Allowed Rank
Fantasy Points
Scored
Weekly
Rank
Le’Veon Bell 4 Vikings 1 24.4 6
Matt Forte 4 Lions 2 22.7 9
Daryl Richardson 4 49ers 3 3.4 53
Maurice Jones-Drew 5 Rams 1 10.6 25
Ray Rice 5 Dolphins 3 28.2 2
Eddie Lacy 5 Lions 4 10.7 24
Mike Tolbert 6 Vikings 2 18.7 12
DeAngelo Williams 6 Vikings 2 16.7 14
Arian Foster 6 Rams 3 23.8 7
Ben Tate 6 Rams 3 11.8 22
DeMarco Murray 6 Washington 4 13.0 21
Joseph Randle 6 Washington 4 11.2 27
Peyton Hillis 7 Vikings 1 19.1 8
Fred Jackson 7 Dolphins 2 18.5 10
CJ Spiller 7 Dolphins 2 3.7 47
Mike Tolbert 7 Rams 3 9.6 24
DeAngelo Williams 7 Rams 3 6.9 36
Eddie Lacy 8 Vikings 1 21.2 5
Stevan Ridley 8 Dolphins 2 13.9 14
Brandon Bolden 8 Dolphins 2 10.9 24
Frank Gore 8 Jaguars 3 20.7 6
DeMarco Murray 9 Vikings 1 11.0 23
Giovani Bernard 9 Dolphins 2 26.4 7
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 9 Dolphins 2 7.2 35
Danny Woodhead 9 Washington 3 18.8 12
Ryan Mathews 9 Washington 3 3.4 51
Bobby Rainey 10 Dolphins 2 12.6 20
Brian Leonard 10 Dolphins 2 9.3 30
Mike James 10 Dolphins 2 4.1 48
Alfred Morris 10 Vikings 4 13.9 17
Chris Johnson 10 Jaguars 5 12.3 22

This is table number two that shows how players did against the three worst matchups for each week starting in week 4.
Name Week Opponent Fantasy Pts
Allowed Rank
Fantasy Points
Scored
Weekly
Rank
Reggie Bush 4 Bears 30 27.3 3
Chris Johnson 4 Jets 31 5.1 45
Fred Jackson 4 Ravens 32 14.7 16
CJ Spiller 4 Ravens 32 7.7 36
Chris Johnson 5 Chiefs 30 18.9 9
Daniel Thomas 5 Ravens 31 3.2 51
Lamar Miller 5 Ravens 31 1.5 62
Jaquizz Rodgers 5 Jets 32 21.8 7
Jason Snelling 5 Jets 32 13.3 13
Giovani Bernard 6 Bills 30 22.0 8
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 6 Bills 30 8.6 34
Danny Woodhead 6 Colts 31 13.3 19
Ryan Mathews 6 Colts 31 10.2 29
Eddie Lacy 6 Ravens 32 13.5 17
Maurice Jones-Drew 7 Chargers 30 7.6 22
Stevan Ridley 7 Jets 31 13.3 16
Brandon Boldon 7 Jets 31 11.3 19
Le’Veon Bell 7 Ravens 32 10.9 22
Adrian Peterson 8 Packers 27 17.3 8
Zac Stacy 8 Seahawks 28 13.9 15
Daryl Richardson 8 Seahawks 28 5.7 36
Fozzy Whittaker 8 Chiefs 31 10.2 28
Chris Ogbonnaya 8 Chiefs 31 5.7 35
Willis McGahee 8 Chiefs 31 4.8 37
Pierre Thomas 9 Jets 30 16.0 19
Mark Ingram 9 Jets 30 1.9 58
Darren Sproles 9 Jets 30 1.2 62
Darrel Young 9 Chargers 31 19.2 11
Alfred Morris 9 Chargers 31 18.1 14
Chris Ogbonnaya 9 Ravens 32 8.9 31
Fozzy Whittaker 9 Ravens 32 5.4 40
WillisMcGahee 9 Ravens 32 3.1 53
Le’Veon Bell 10 Bills 29 18.6 9
Zac Stacy 10 Colts 31 14.8 14
Giovanni Bernard 10 Ravens 32 23.5 5
BenJarvus Green-Ellis 10 Ravens 32 3.6 51

Once you are finished absorbing the above you can check out the following table that shows which teams look to have good (top 5) and bad (bottom 5) matchups for RBs for the rest of the season. The reason I’m using top and bottom 5 now is because this is based on where these teams rank thru 10 weeks, and there’s bound to be some movement, so that’s why I’m expanding the criteria for you.  Instead of listing players, I’m listing the teams that have strong matchups. You know who’s on each team so there’s no reason to list 40+ RBs. The week number will indicate when that team faces the team in each column. Currently the Cowboys are giving up the most points to RBs and the Ravens the least.
GOOD RUNNING BACK MATCHUPS
Teams Cowboys Dolphins Rams Vikings Jaguars

Bears

Wk 14   Wk 12 Wk 13  

Eagles

Wk 17     Wk 15  

Seahawks

    Wk 17 Wk 11  

Packers

Wk 15     Wk 12  

Texans

        Wk 12 & Wk 14

Bills

  Wk 16     Wk 15

Jets

  Wk 13 & Wk 17      

Cardinals

    Wk 14   Wk 11

Washington

Wk 16        

Giants

Wk 12        

Bengals

      Wk 16  

Patriots

  Wk 15      

Lions

      Wk 17  

Titans

        Wk 16

Raiders

Wk 13        

Colts

        Wk 17

Panthers

  Wk 12      

Browns

        Wk 13

49ers

    Wk 13    

Steelers

  Wk 14      

Buccaneers

    Wk 16    

Saints

    Wk 15    

Ravens

      Wk 14  

Chargers

  Wk 11      

I will chime in now. If your trade deadline hasn’t passed yet I think it’s safe to say that trading for Matt Forte would be a no brainer. Some other targets that you can probably get at a decent price would be Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller (if you want to roll the dice that he gets healthy), and Ben Tate. Tates price is most likely higher with Foster now on IR, but he’s still worth looking into acquiring.

This table shows the poor matchups.
BAD RUNNING BACK MATCHUPS
Teams Chiefs Bengals Colts Jets Ravens

Chargers

Wk 12 & Wk 17 Wk 13      

Ravens

  Wk 17   Wk 12  

Bengals

    Wk 14   Wk 17

Browns

  Wk 11   Wk 16  

Broncos

Wk 11 & Wk 13        

Colts

Wk 16 Wk 14      

Dolphins

      Wk 13 & Wk 17  

Vikings

  Wk 16     Wk 14

Raiders

Wk 15     Wk 14  

Steelers

  Wk 15     Wk 13

Cardinals

    Wk 12    

Bills

      Wk 11  

Panthers

      Wk 15  

Bears

        Wk 11

Lions

        Wk 15

Texans

    Wk 15    

Jaguars

    Wk 17    

Jets

        Wk 12

Chiefs

    Wk 16    

Patriots

        Wk 16

Titans

    Wk 13    

Washington

Wk 14        

The Chargers have a good matchup in week 11 but then have three bad matchups the rest of the way. If your trade deadline is after this week I’d look to move Danny Woodhead and Ryan Mathews before their week 12 matchup against the Chiefs. It’s not like anyone should be relying on Lamar Miller, but if for some crazy reason you are and your playoffs run thru week 17, you should try to deal him if you can.

Gronk Watch…

Gronkowski was on a bye last week but check back next week for a week 11 update.

Rob Gronkowski

Snaps/% Snaps Played

PPS(Points/Snap)

Fantasy Pts (PPR)

Week 7

48/64% .404 19.4

Week 8

33/50% .142 4.7

Week 9

49/64% .598 29.3

BYE

-- -- --

Total

130/60% .411 53.4

Projected Low

50 .150 7.5

Projected High

80 .400 32

Projected Average

75 .250 18.75

Something’s Gotta Give

In one of the most anticipated games of the season taking place taking place this week, I don’t see how I can’t include the Broncos and Chiefs in “Something’s Gotta Give.” Unlike in past weeks, instead of just including one facet of a team’s offense versus the others defense I’m going to include all facets for each two of these teams.  That way you can really get a look at where each team’s strengths and weaknesses lie.

Chiefs Rushing Offense

Broncos Rush Defense

Broncos Rush Defense

Chiefs Passing Offense

Chiefs Passing Offense

Broncos Passing Defense

Broncos Pass Defense

Broncos Rush Offense

Chiefs Passing OffenseChiefs Rush Defense

It’s easy to see that there are a lot of strengths vs weaknesses in this matchup. What I see happening is the Broncos passing attack taking a back seat to their rushing attack. That will allow them to protect Manning and his sprained ankles, all while attacking a weakness of the Chiefs. Plus this game is in Denver and I think homefield advantage can’t be overstated in this matchup.  

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