FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL

Prediction: ARI 23, JAC 16 (Line: ARI by 6.5)

Players of Interest: Marcedes Lewis

Update: Michael Floyd sustained a sprained shoulder and only managed limited work on Thursday and Friday. He is still expected to play but could be limited.

The 5-4 Cardinals are only 1-3 on the road but are on a two game winning streak. The 1-8 Jaguars come off their first win of the season and attempt to win in front of their own fans for the first time this year.

1 @STL 24-27 10 HOU 27-24
2 DET 25-21 11 @JAC -
3 @NO 7-31 12 IND -
4 @TB 13-10 13 @PHI -
5 CAR 22-6 14 STL -
6 @SF 20-32 15 @TEN -
7 SEA 22-34 16 @SEA -
8 ATL 27-13 17 SF -
9 BYE WEEK ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
ARI @ JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Carson Palmer 250,1
RB Andre Ellington 50 5-50
WR Larry Fitzgerald 4-70,1
WR Michael Floyd 5-50
WR Ted Ginn 2-30
TE John Carlson 4-20
TE Rob Housler 4-30
PK Jay Feely 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Cardinals are not that hard to figure out since they almost always win at home against all but the top teams and then they struggle away from home and have only beaten the Buccaneers by a field goal while playing as a visitor. There's been no real development of any players on the offense despite attempts in the offseason to bring in new and better options. If the Cardinals can win on the road again, it would be here.

QUARTERBACKS: Carson Palmer rarely has more than 250 passing yards in any game but at least he scores every week and even doubled up in three of the last four matchups. He's a lock to throw one or two interceptions so far but at least he can offer some minimal fantasy value every week.

RUNNING BACKS: Andre Ellington is still outplaying Rashard Mendenhall every week but after he ran for 55 yards on 11 carries and added 18 more on two receptions. HC Bruce Arians said he thought that was plenty of work for his only effective tailback. Mendenhall missed week nine when Ellington turned in 162 total yards and a score as the primary back. But Mendenhall was once again given the primary role and only gained 42 yards on 13 carries. The reality here is that short of facing a really weak defense, there is never any reliable fantasy value here and even if there were, Arians is very comfortable dividing it up.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Michael Floyd sprained his right shoulder and is considered "day to day" but is expected to play this week according to Arians. Floyd has been a mostly nonfactor every week though he did score twice so far this season. He's averaging around 50 yards per game without any sign of improvement. Larry Fitzgerald is healthy by now but hasn't done much other than the one good game against the 49ers in week six. Over the last three weeks - all at home - he only averaged 29 yards per game and scored only once against the Falcons. It hasn't taken much coverage to convince Palmer to throw somewhere else. Fitzgerald only twice had more than seven targets in a game since the opener. For him to only be getting five or six passes in most games is a major under-use that suggest as much about the offensive scheme and game plan as it is about him.

Andre Roberts scored once and gained 72 yards in the Houston win but it was his first touchdown all year and more yardage than his six previous games combined. Nothing new here but one good game.

TIGHT ENDS: Robert Housler caught four passes for a season-best 57 yards and his first touchdown in the Houston win. But he's only reliable for maybe 20 or 30 yards in any game and cannot be considered for any fantasy starts.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jaguars always allow at least one passing score though at home no opponent managed more than two. With moderate yardage in each game, it fits right into what Palmer does every week anyway. Where this game could offer up something new is in the rushing offense since the Jags have already given up 14 rushing touchdowns and solid yardage to every backfield. Sadly it gets chopped up with the Cardinals but it will make both Ellington and Mendenhall at least worth a consideration this week. The Jaguars are very weak against tight ends thanks to linebacker problems but Housler isn't reliable enough here. This week it is safe to start Warner for his average game and Larry Fitzgerald as the upside to turn in a better game. Both running backs merit some consideration as well given the soft defense they will face.

WHAT TO WATCH: Be interesting to see if Mendenhall and Ellington again split the workload given that the Jaguars are likely to make Mendenhall to look better than he usually does.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points ARI 30 15 19 28 16 5
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 30 29 11 31 24 30

 

1 KC 2-28 10 @TEN 29-27
2 @OAK 9-19 11 ARI -
3 @SEA 17-45 12 @HOU -
4 IND 3-37 13 @CLE -
5 @STL 20-34 14 HOU -
6 @DEN 19-35 15 BUF -
7 SD 6-24 16 TEN -
8 SF 10-42 17 @IND -
9 BYE WEEK ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC vs ARI Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 230,1
WR Mike Brown 4-50
WR Cecil Shorts 4-50
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30,1
PK Josh Scobee 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: Nothing like a first win to make everything better until the next loss. It was a trap game that happened just right for the Jaguars to sudden score 29 points when they have never scored more than 20 points in any game this year. There is always the chance for another win with teams like the Cardinals, Bills and Texans remaining as visitors to Jacksonville but one look at the box score and you can tell it was just one of those games that mostly went against the Titans instead of for the Jaguars.

QUARTERBACKS: The Jaguars won last week but it wasn't because of Chad Henne who only passed for 180 yards and two interceptions. He will remain the starter despite Blaine Gabbert being healthy but Henne has only thrown three touchdowns over his seven games played. He's managed to crest 300 yards twice and yet had no scores in those games.

RUNNING BACKS: Maurice Jones-Drew managed to score for the third time this year but only gained 41 yards on 21 carries in Tennessee. He's never been better than 75 rushing yards in any game but at least throws in a few catches each week to help. The plan going into last week was to use Denard Robinson more but he only gained three yards on his four runs. Jordan Toddman scored a touchdown in relief of Jones-Drew but that's a rarity. Jones-Drew remains a low quality start each week.

WIDE RECEIVERS: First game without Justin Blackmon and it did not go well despite the win. Cecil Shorts only caught two passes for 42 yards and becomes the main focus of the secondary. Mike Brown took Blackmon's place but only caught two passes for 40 yards and that's no different than when he was the slot receiver. The Jags were already no better than what Blackmon could do and now without him become a very mediocre passing attack. Shorts best shot at production is to get a lot of trash time at the end of a blowout loss.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value here. Marcedes Lewis is back but has never topped 40 yards in any game.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Cardinals typically give up a couple of passing scores to opponents but the Jaguars are down to Cecil Shorts and pretty much no one. What looms as a possible spike is that the Cardinals are very weak against tight ends who have scored nine times on them already and mostly in road games for six of them. Lewis is never a safe play but the situation is there to see him or even Clay Harbor do better than usual. Problem here is also that the Cards are pretty good against the run with only two touchdowns surrendered to running backs. This smacks of just another very average game for the Jags and the only reasonable fantasy players here are Jones-Drew and Shorts who are always very low end gambles with minimal upside.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 30 20 31 32 23
Preventing Fantasy Points ARI 21 4 12 32 16 22

WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL


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