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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL

Prediction: CLE 13, CIN 23 (Line: CIN by 6)

Players of Interest: Jordan Cameron

This is a replay of week four when the Browns beat the visiting Bengals 17-6. If the Browns could win here, they would draw within one game of the lead for the AFC North. But the Bengals are 4-0 at home and the Browns 1-3 on the road. The Bengals are on a two game losing streak.

1 MIA 10-23 10 BYE WEEK
2 @BAL 6-14 11 @CIN -
3 @MIN 31-27 12 PIT -
4 CIN 17-6 13 JAC -
5 BUF 37-24 14 @NE -
6 DET 17-31 15 CHI -
7 @GB 13-31 16 @NYJ -
8 @KC 17-23 17 @PIT -
9 BAL 24-18 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Chris Ogbonnaya 30 5-30,1
RB Ben Tate 70,1 2-10
WR Nate Burleson
WR Josh Gordon 4-70
TE Jordan Cameron 5-60
PK Billy Cundiff 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Browns are playing more competitively since switching over to Jason Campbell and even beat the Ravens in week nine before their bye. The four wins by the Browns have been at home against fellow division rivals, or the Bills or at the Vikings. Outside of the division they always struggle unless the opponent is among the weaker teams. There still has not been any development this year that can carry over into 2014 other than if Jason Campbell somehow continues to impress and convinces the coaches that his first ten years in the league were all about the learning curve.

QUARTERBACKS: Have to admit - Jason Campbell is play far better than expected. In Kansas City he passed for 293 yards and two scores. Chances are they did not take the Browns seriously and they sill won 23-17. But then Campbell followed that up with 262 yards and three scores in the win over the Ravens. No fumbles. No interceptions. Each time you change quarterbacks the new guy can look good for the first few weeks before defenses figure him out. That starts to be proved or disproved this week.

Brian Hoyer passed for 269 yards and two scores in the last meeting.

RUNNING BACKS: Willis McGahee is playing like he was a recently retired 32-year-old running back who is over the hill and playing on knees that sound like maracas when he runs. After he gained a healthy 31 yards on 21 carries against the Ravens, OC Norv Turner had an epiphany that maybe someone else should get more work. Foswhitt Whittaker has not proven to be the guy despite his cool name. Since Chris Ogbonnaya is the only other available back, he should see an increase in workload. He was limited by a rib injury but should be over that now. This offense is not going to produce any notable running backs from this stock and with that offensive line. But if nothing else the home game with the Jaguars could prove beneficial. Turner has recently talked up Ogbonnaya if only to avoid talking about everyone else.

Ogbonnaya caught a touchdown on his five catches for 21 yards versus the Bengals in week four.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Campbell has been good for the wideouts so far. Josh Gordon rung up five catches for 132 yards and a score in Kansas City but then only produced three receptions for 44 yards in the win over the Ravens. Greg Little had a single catch in KC but then a season high 122 yards on seven catches last week. That was almost his entire year in one game. Even Davone Bess caught a spark. While he is eternally stuck with under 30 yards in every game, he caught two touchdowns against the Ravens. Campbell may not last, but at least for two weeks he's spread the wealth in this unit.

Gordon caught four passes for 71 yards in the first game with the Bengals. Little was held to no catches then and Bess only managed his standard two receptions for 25 yards.

TIGHT ENDS: This is a bit troubling. After Campbell connected with Jordan Cameron for 81 yards on four catches in Kansas City - catching all his targets as well - he flopped in the Ravens win with only one catch for four yards. Cameron turned in ten catches for 91 yards and one score in the first meeting with the Bengals.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bengals play far better at home where they have allowed just two passing scores and never more than 250 yards to quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. Expect a decline from Campbell and if he throws for even one touchdown that is a success. Two would be a big surprise. The Bengals are also very good against running backs. The only plays this week are Gordon from his upside and then maybe Ogbonnaya in a reception points league looking for a flex play. Cameron is another guy you have to start and he had a big game in the first meeting but the Bengals at home have never allowed any tight end to score or gain more than 50 yards.

WHAT TO WATCH: Jordan Cameron turned in one of his best games of the year last time they played the Bengals. This will be a good test to see just how different it will be with Jason Campbell as the quarterback this time.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CLE 17 31 21 3 27 19
Preventing Fantasy Points CIN 9 7 16 8 12 20

 

1 @CHI 21-24 10 @BAL 17-20
2 PIT 20-10 11 CLE -
3 GB 34-30 12 BYE WEEK
4 @CLE 6-17 13 @SD -
5 NE 13-6 14 IND -
6 @BUF 27-24 15 @PIT -
7 @DET 27-24 16 MIN -
8 NYJ 49-9 17 BAL -
9 @MIA 20-22 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
CIN vs CLE Rush Catch Pass
QB Jason Campbell 240,1
QB Andy Dalton 20 240,1
RB Giovani Bernard 50,1 5-40
RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis 40
WR A.J. Green 5-50
WR Marvin Jones 4-50,1
WR Mohamed Sanu 3-30
TE Tyler Eifert 3-30
TE Jermaine Gresham 2-20
PK Mike Nugent 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: This week is a critical one to win to ensure that the division stays with the Bengals and to reverse this trend of losing games. At home the Bengals have been consistently good and there is only a bye waiting on the other side of this weekend. That will allow the Bengals to refuel and repair for the final run that won't be easy but should be enough to get that division title so long as the road problems get fixed in time for week 13 in San Diego.

QUARTERBACKS: Andy Dalton has been very streaky this year. By week five he only had five scores and moderate yardage. Then for three games he was on fire, throwing over 320 yards in each and totaling 11 touchdowns in that time including a franchise record five scores against the Jets. But Dalton could not score against the Fins and the Ravens held him to two touchdowns. In both losses he threw three interceptions and was sacked five times.

Dalton needs a good home game win. He passed for only 206 yards and no scores in the previous loss to the Browns.

RUNNING BACKS: Oddly enough, Giovani Bernard had his best two games of the year in the two recent losses. He scored twice in Miami with rushing scores and gained 79 yards on nine runs with 25 more on four catches. Then in Baltimore, he ran for 58 and added eight catches for 37 yards and a touchdown. Bernard is buying himself more playing time each week as BenJarvus Green-Ellis chugs along lucky to top three yards per carry. Green-Ellis was held to only 13 yards on six runs in the first meeting while Bernard gained 37 yards as a runner and 38 more on six catches.

WIDE RECEIVERS: A.J. Green is on a five game streak of 100 yard games and he's already scored six times. While Mohamed Sanu lacks any impact, even Marvin Jones has slipped back to non-relevance with only one catch for two yards last week. The plus here is that his 122 yard, four touchdown game versus the Jets was in the most recent home game. Jones was held catchless in Cleveland this year while Green settled for 51 yards on seven catches.

TIGHT ENDS: Jermaine Gresham was inactive last week because of his groin but it was a game time scratch. He's likely to be back for this one. Tyler Eifert had the field to himself and ended with a season best 55 yards on three catches. Back in week four, Gresham accounted for 53 yards on three catches in Cleveland while Eifert went for 39 yards on three receptions.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Browns defense is about as good away from home as they are in Cleveland. This is also a divisional game which tends to be different than the others. With Dalton on a downturn lately, he is a risky play against a team that held him to no scores last time. He could post some points if he can locate the homefield magic but it is a risk to take after two bad games. To the extent they can, Joe Haden will look to match on Green and this should end up his first week under 100 yards unless he lands a long catch. This is a less advantageous matchup than it may seem at first glance. The most reasonable plays this week are Bernard who is improving and Green just because of his potential even in a bad matchup. All others are either very risky or likely to produce marginal stats.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points CIN 11 18 5 11 25 15
Preventing Fantasy Points CLE 14 24 9 16 11 5

WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL


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