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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL

Prediction: IND 17, TEN 24 (Line: IND by 3)

The 6-2 Colts have a two game lead over the 4-5 Titans and the Colts swept the Titans last year. They won 19-13 on the road and later 27-23 at home. This game seems messy since it features the Colts who were ambushed by the Rams somehow and the Titans who just allowed the visiting Jaguars their first win of the year. This seems like a low scoring game.

1 OAK 21-17 10 STL 8-38
2 MIA 20-24 11 @TEN -
3 @SF 27-7 12 @ARI -
4 @JAC 37-3 13 TEN -
5 SEA 34-28 14 @CIN -
6 @SD 9-19 15 HOU -
7 DEN 39-33 16 @KC -
8 BYE WEEK 17 JAC -
9 @HOU 27-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ TEN Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 20 250,1
RB Trent Richardson 40,1 3-30
WR T.Y. Hilton 5-70
WR Hakeem Nicks 5-50
TE Coby Fleener 5-40
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Last week was one of many upsets in the NFL and more than a few teams played inexplicably flat. Probably none struggled so shockingly as the Colts who where massacred by the Rams in every aspect. While it is easy to write off as just one game, it was very troubling to see the first game without Reggie Wayne looking like they had a giant hole to fill. And with the passing game taking a big step down, the failures of the rushing attack were even more glaring. Unfortunately the Colts have three road games in the next four weeks and against decent to good defenses. But they need to immediately shake off week ten before it becomes the turning point for the season.

QUARTERBACKS: It wasn't that Andrew Luck could not pass at all last week. He threw for a season high 353 yards on the Rams but only scored one touchdown and had three interceptions. And a lost fumble. It was ugly. This from the same quarterback who had three scores each in the previous two games. There is no doubt that Luck likes T.Y. Hilton the most now. The problem is that there is apparently no #2.

RUNNING BACKS: HC Chuck Pagano says he wants to run more and have a balanced offense but then the Rams went so far ahead last week that Trent Richardson was only allowed five carries for a total of two net yards. There was no rushing game and even Donald Brown ran twice to lose one yard. Richardson has literally declined in every game from week four when he also last scored. The last month has not see more than 40 rushing yards in any game from the guy they gave up a #1 pick next spring to get. Both backs are used as receivers and that is the only source of their stats lately.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is nothing wrong with T.Y. Hilton with seven catches for 120+ yards in each of the last two games and three scores in Houston. There is apparently everything wrong with the rest of the wide receivers. Darrius Heyward-Bey drops at least as many as he catches and he only averages a couple of receptions per game for the last month. LaVon Brazill is stuck at one catch per game. Griff Whalen is marginally better. In fantasy terms, Hilton is becoming a stud and the rest remain just duds.

Someone has to step up from this group or they need to bring someone in because Hilton alone is never going to be enough.

TIGHT ENDS: Just because Reggie Wayne left doesn't change that Coby Fleener is just an average tight end with no real fantasy value. He comes off a 33 yard effort last week and has just one score in the last five games. As we so often learn, not all college relationships burn brightly once you leave.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Titans pass defense is outstanding with only seven scores allowed all year and just two at home. Where the Titans fail is against the run since they allowed 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs already and plenty of yardage to most teams. Of course the Colts are bringing a below average set to the game so any benefit may be useful to make the Colts backs look decent for once. The Titans are tops in the NFL against wide receivers - partially since they allow so much to the rushing game - and only two wideouts scored on them all year. This bodes poorly for Hilton this week. The only time in the entire season any receiver managed a 100 yard game against them was DeAndre Hopkins thanks to catching a long pass. None of the Colts look like great plays but you could get moderate stats from Richardson and Brown so long as they continue to pin receptions to their totals.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 8 19 15 22 13 20
Preventing Fantasy Points TEN 3 27 1 21 8 27

 

1 @PIT 16-9 10 JAC 27-29
2 @HOU 24-30 11 IND -
3 SD 20-17 12 @OAK -
4 NYJ 38-13 13 @IND -
5 KC 17-26 14 @DEN -
6 @SEA 13-20 15 ARI -
7 SF 17-31 16 @JAC -
8 BYE WEEK 17 HOU -
9 @STL 28-21 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
vs Rush Catch Pass
RB Shonn Greene 30,1
WR Kris Durham 4-50
WR T.J. Graham 2-30
WR Justin Hunter 3-40
WR Nate Washington 4-50
WR Kendall Wright 7-80,1
TE Delanie Walker 4-40
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: How does a team lose to the Jaguars? The visiting Jaguars no less? Apparently the equation is to take out the opponents quarterback, get a safety, score on a fumble recover and get five turnovers and it can happen. The Titans are only 4-5 but actually have a shot at the playoffs if they can beat the Colts this week and again in two weeks at Indianapolis. Aside from one trip to Denver, the remaining schedule is not that bad.

QUARTERBACKS: Jake Locker was placed on injured reserve because of his Lis franc injury and that leaves Ryan Fitzpatrick in control for the rest of the year. He played well in relief of Locker last Sunday when he scored three touchdowns and passes for 264 yards. Fitzpatrick is no savior but he's more than adequate for a replacement quarterback.

RUNNING BACKS: Chris Johnson followed his normal path when he ran for 150 yards and two scores in St. Louis but then at home against the Jaguars he could only mister 30 yards on 12 carries. He is already losing carries to Shonn Greene who peeled off nine caries to only 12 for Johnson. In a home game against the winless Jags. so far the only time Johnson was successful was against the Rams like everyone else. Otherwise he has not rushed for more than 40 yards since week three. Shonn Greene is now getting nine carries per game. This is a weak unit that requires a truly soft defenses to matter.

WIDE RECEIVERS: This unit only seems to get worse. Kendall Wright is the Hilton of the group with around 70 yards every week but only one score back in week two. Justin Hunter started the year out with one touchdown catch in each of the first two games and then pretty much nothing from then on. Nate Washington was hot in the first month as well but has done little in the last five games. Fitzpatrick is spreading the ball around to these wideouts but his 22 passes to the position only resulted in 12 catches last week. It has been five games since anyone here scored.

TIGHT ENDS: Delanie Walker managed to have a season best game when he caught four passes for 62 yards and one score in the loss to the Jaguars. He does have four touchdowns on the season but his yardage varies greatly each week and it is too early to assume that his connection with Fitzpatrick was more than just a one-week thing. Second-year tight end Taylor Thompson scored last week on his only catch of the year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts are only average against the pass but not bad enough to make Fitzpatrick merit any fantasy attention this week. Fitzpatrick will do well enough to score even once this week. The Colts grade out great against the run but that is from the particular batch of running backs that they have faced. The Colts has given up five touchdowns and a couple of 100 yard rushing efforts against then. Figure both Johnson and Greene as low end plays but with a little upside. Kendall Wright is another worthy of consideration because he owns the passing game for the Titans. No other players matter in a fantasy sense.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points TEN 14 23 22 23 22 10
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 16 3 24 6 15 13

WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL


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