FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL

Prediction: NYJ 23, BUF 17 (Line: BUF by 1.5)

Players of Interest: Kellen Winslow

Update: Bad sign for the Bills when both Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods will be out this week. Santonio Holmes is expected to be active but will be limited in the game. I am not adding him into the projections since he is not expected to take much of a role this week.

This is a replay of week three when the Jets won 27-20. The are only 1-3 in road games so far and the Bills are just 2-3 at home. The difference here is that the Bills are banged up.

1 TB 18-17 10 BYE WEEK
2 @NE 10-13 11 @BUF -
3 BUF 27-20 12 @BAL -
4 @TEN 13-38 13 MIA -
5 @ATL 30-28 14 OAK -
6 PIT 6-19 15 @CAR -
7 NE 30-27 16 CLE -
8 @CIN 9-49 17 @MIA -
9 NO 26-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ BUF Rush Catch Pass
QB Geno Smith 30,1 220
RB Chris Ivory 100,1 1-10
RB Chris Johnson 60 4-40
RB Bilal Powell 30 1-10
WR Eric Decker 5-80,1
WR David Nelson 2-40
TE Jeff Cumberland 4-50
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Jets come off their bye having last beaten the Saints in an upset. No arguing they play better at home since they also beat the Patriots there in week seven. The Jets passing game continues to be marginal at best but the rushing offense has really picked up and the defense hasn't gone anywhere. At 5-4 they remain two games behind the Patriots but if the season were to end now, the Jets would have the second wildcard in the AFC.

QUARTERBACKS: Geno Smith ran in a touchdown in two of his last three games but the passing has been only getting worse. Over the last four games he's only thrown one touchdown and his yardage has been minimal. The one saving grace this week is that he threw a career best 331 yards and two scores in week three against these Bills. It was also the only game he ever played without a sack. Smith is hands off in fantasy terms but will show up when facing one of the weakest defenses in the league.

RUNNING BACKS: Chris Ivory is getting the primary back load lately and he's responded with 100+ yard games in two of the last three games played though both were at home. Back in week three, Bilal Powell ran for 149 yards on 27 carries for the best game by any Jets rusher this year. Powell is still getting ten or so carries per game but doing very little with them. Ivory has at least been productive in a couple of recent games even if he has no role as a receiver.

WIDE RECEIVERS: One of the worst sets in the league now will be without Jeremy Kerley for a few weeks or more after he dislocated his left elbow. He's been the only remotely consistent receiver and his two touchdowns are better than any other wideout. Stephen Hill has been horrible this year with one exception - against these Bills he caught three passes for 108 yards and his only touchdown. In that game Santonio Holmes gained 154 yards on five catches and also scored.

But Kerley has been the preferred target for Smith who now has to find another. And there is not much to choose from here.

TIGHT ENDS: This is a mess because Jeff Cumberland has a concussion. Zach Sudfeld actually brought in two passes for 46 yards in the win over the Saints. And now Kellen Winslow is returning from his suspension. This should remain Cumberland's starting job is he can play but Winslow will once again be worked in as well and he started the season with a couple of decent games. He also claims his infamous knees have benefited from the month off. For now I will project for Cumberland but all three tight ends might figure in and cancel each other out.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Bills have allowed multiple touchdowns to seven different quarterbacks already including Smith in week three. But the passing game is lethargic here and with Kerley out takes yet another step down. But the Bills defense has been seemingly great against the run since only two runners have scored on them this year. But plenty have racked up nice yardage on them with Powell's 149 yards the season high. There is no element of the Jets passing game worthy of fantasy consideration even against such a week secondary. But Ivory is definitely worth a start.

WHAT TO WATCH: With Kerley out, Geno Smith has to find a new primary receiver and that is worth tracking. It is also interesting to see if Winslow can return to any meaningful work.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 27 28 27 16 4 27
Preventing Fantasy Points BUF 20 6 31 5 30 26

 

1 NE 21-23 10 @PIT 10-23
2 CAR 24-23 11 NYJ -
3 @NYJ 20-27 12 BYE WEEK
4 BAL 23-20 13 ATL -
5 @CLE 24-37 14 @TB -
6 CIN 24-27 15 @JAC -
7 @MIA 23-21 16 MIA -
8 @NO 17-35 17 @NE -
9 KC 13-23 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BUF vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB EJ Manuel 10 180,1
RB Fred Jackson 50,1 4-40
RB C.J. Spiller 30 2-20
WR Marquise Goodwin 3-50
TE Scott Chandler 5-60,1
PK Dan Carpenter 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: Hitting a tough stretch of defenses has depressed the scoring for the Bills who are still hampered by injuries that happen almost weekly. E.J. Manuel returned with dubious results against the Steelers and Stevie Johnson could not finish that game and has been banged up often this season. The rushing effort languishes in mediocrity while C.J. Spiller seems more hurt than what the coaches are willing to admit. The bye waiting on the other side of this game will be a big help to get players healthy but the Bills are already out of the playoff race anyway.

QUARTERBACKS: E.J. Manuel returned from his knee injury after missing five weeks but he was noticeably rusty. Manuel only completed 22 of 39 passes for 155 yards and one score and one interception. The first time he faced the Jets, he passed for 243 yards and one score. But the offense is more dinged up this time around and Manuel is trying to return to early season form.

RUNNING BACKS: HC Doug Marrone spoke about getting C.J. Spiller more involved in the offense last week but then only gave him eight carries to gain 23 yards. Spiller added three catches but only turned them into 11 yards. Most believe that Spiller is still being limited by a high ankle injury though he ran for 116 yards against the Chiefs thanks mostly to a 61-yard run. It probably doesn't matter this week anyway since Spiller only ran for nine yards over his ten carries against the Jets earlier this year.

Fred Jackson still has yet to turn in a big game this year but he's really never had a bad one either. He's usually good for about 50 yards per week as a starting point and scored six times to lead the team.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The problem this week is that Stevie Johnson was pulled from the loss to the Steelers after injuring his groin. Early speculation is that he'll suit up and play even if not healthy. Johnson has been fighting hip and groin injuries all season. Now Robert Woods is following suit with an ankle injury that may keep him out this week, It is confirmed to be a high sprain so I will assume he is a no-go this week.

Woods should be out and Johnson might as well. Not a positive for a team short on stars as it is. Johnson gained 86 yards on the Jets last time while no other receiver was better than 35 yards.

TIGHT ENDS: Scott Chandler has no real fantasy value with so many bad games but his season best ended up to be when he faced the Jets and caught five passes for 79 yards and one score. Chandler only managed two touchdowns all year and remains below 30 yards in most weeks.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jets defense tends to be worse away from home but these teams know each other well and as a divisional game doesn't always follow other trends. The issue this week is that Woods is out, Johnson may not be 100%. Spiller has a high ankle sprain that magically disappears and then reappears. Manuel is rusty after his layoff and doesn't have much NFL experience anyway. That makes this game look less productive than most for the Bills who were locked in around 24 points per game until recent weeks when that's been halved. The only Bills worth considering for a fantasy start are Jackson and Spiller with little hope for more than marginal yardage this week. If there is a score via the pass it would almost have to end up with Chandler as it already did back in week three.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BUF 29 6 29 21 15 16
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 1 22 26 20 29

WEEK 11 IND at TEN (THU) CLE at CIN MIN at SEA SF at NO
ATL at TB DET at PIT OAK at HOU WAS at PHI
BAL at CHI GB at NYG NYJ at BUF NE at CAR (MON)
*UPDATED ARI at JAC KC at DEN SD at MIA On Bye: DAL, STL


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