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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA

Prediction: JAC 13, HOU 27 (Line: HOU by 10)

Now this is a great reason to play fantasy football. Why else would anyone tune in to watch a 1-9 team go against a 2-8 team. What does it say about the Jaguars when the Texans have lost eight straight games and are still favored by ten points. It says "Hey Jaguars, we really think you suck."

1 KC 2-28 10 @TEN 29-27
2 @OAK 9-19 11 ARI 14-27
3 @SEA 17-45 12 @HOU -
4 IND 3-37 13 @CLE -
5 @STL 20-34 14 HOU -
6 @DEN 19-35 15 BUF -
7 SD 6-24 16 TEN -
8 SF 10-42 17 @IND -
9 BYE WEEK ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
JAC @ HOU Rush Catch Pass
QB Chad Henne 190,1
WR Ace Sanders 6-50
WR Cecil Shorts 5-70
TE Marcedes Lewis 3-30
PK Josh Scobee 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The giddy win over the Titans was followed up with a normal 13 point home loss to the Cardinals and the Jaguars without Blackmon is an offense that just doesn't work. That trap game in Tennessee still looks like such a huge aberration. The only reason that the Jaguars give press conferences anymore is to confirm that the same players will be starting this week whether they deserve it or not.

QUARTERBACKS: Chad Henne remains the starter which says more about the depth chart than anything else. Henne has only passed for four touchdowns in nine games and yet is an upgrade over Blaine Gabbert. This is the #32 quarterbacked team in the NFL.

RUNNING BACKS: It is not enough to be ranked #32 for quarterbacks, the Jaguars pull off the rare #32 in running backs as well. Maurice Jones-Drew plays against a stacked defense on every play but has managed to score four times this year even if he still has never exceeded 75 rushing yards in any game and typically remains very safely under 50 yards in most. Since Justin Blackmon left, the defenses are focusing even more on stopping Jones-Drew

WIDE RECEIVERS: Cecil Shorts has also lost almost all his fantasy value though he only had one score on the year anyway. Shorts was held to only 22 yards against the Cardinals because he was only thrown five passes and caught two. He was angry after the game and was not shy about complaining publicly about his lack of passes. Shorts initially was turning in over 70 yards per week once Blackmon was gone but that's dissolved for the last two weeks. Mike Brown has an AC sprain and may not play this week. Ace Sanders finally showed up and caught eight passes for 61 yards versus the Cardinals for his best game of the year.

TIGHT ENDS: Marcedes Lewis was already bad enough with roughly 30 yards per week but then back-up tight end Danny Noble caught a 62-yard touchdown last week. There is no fantasy value here worth considering.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Texans defense is only average at best but it doesn't really matter when the Jaguars sport the #32 quarterbacks and running backs. Consider Jones-Drew a marginal start and both Henne and Shorts as desperation plays only because the matchup suggests that a passing score is actually possible.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points JAC 32 32 25 30 32 27
Preventing Fantasy Points HOU 6 18 5 16 18 31

 

1 @SD 31-28 10 @ARI 24-27
2 TEN 30-24 11 OAK 23-28
3 @BAL 9-30 12 JAC -
4 SEA 20-23 13 NE -
5 @SF 3-34 14 @JAC -
6 STL 13-38 15 @IND -
7 @KC 16-17 16 DEN -
8 BYE WEEK 17 @TEN -
9 IND 24-27 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
HOU vs JAC Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick 250,2
QB Case Keenum 10 250,2
WR DeAndre Hopkins 3-50
WR Andre Johnson 6-100,1
TE Garrett Graham 6-70,1
PK Randy Bullock 2 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: This game, if only this game, is the chance for the Texans to stop their losing streak. The season is not going to end well with the Patriots, Colts, Broncos and Titans left to play. But for one week this should be the end to the losing. If the Texans were to lose this week, it would be like a major explosion on a ship that already is sinking.

QUARTERBACKS: Case Keenum was not having a good game last week when he had only thrown for 170 yards and a score with one interception. But he was benched (or replaced depending on your view) with Matt Schaub according to HC Gary Kubiak because they wanted to change the game plan and felt Schaub would be better suited to do it. Of course he only completed 12 of 25 passes for 155 yards and no scores and yet again played worse than Keenum.

Keenum was named as the starter again and this is the one week where he'll really want to be there. He already passed for three scores against the Colts and Cardinals and has been the only one able to connect with Andre Johnson enough to let him fulfill his potential.

RUNNING BACKS: Ben Tate comes off his best game of the year when he ran for 88 yards on 19 carries and added 29 yards on four receptions against the Raiders. He still has just one touchdown and overall the Texanshave only produced two rushing scores this year. But Tate remains the primary back who doesn't share the ball and that will matchup up nicely this week to the incoming Jaguars.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Andre Johnson ended with ten catches for 116 yards last week but was livid over the change in quarterbacks. Keenum has been instrumental in a revival of sorts for Johnson who caught five touchdowns over the first two starts by Keenum. The Texans also benched DeAndre Hopkins for poor play but he's been fairly consistent around 50 yards in most weeks. There is no word if his benching extends into this week or not but the Texans have no decent replacements anyway. I will assume that Hopkins returns this week and Keshawn Martin returns to the sideline.

TIGHT ENDS: Garrett Graham comes off a career-best effort of seven catches for 136 yards and one score but he's been no better than 50 yards since week three and also lost a costly fumble in the loss to the Raiders. Graham started the year out with a score in each of the first three games but has been very quiet since even after Owen Daniels was gone.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jaguars are allowing two to four touchdowns to every road quarterback this year though the yardage rarely goes high because teams are also busy rushing the football down their throat as well. The Jaguars are bad against tight ends with six scores allowed to the position in just the last four road games. This should be at least a good game for Henne, Graham, Johnson and Tate with the chance for a big performance with all of them. When the Jaguars come to town and run onto the field, they should be playing music from an ice cream truck on the loud speakers.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points HOU 17 23 16 4 24 28
Preventing Fantasy Points JAC 31 26 16 31 24 29

WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA


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