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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA

Prediction: MIN 17, GB 24 (Line: GB by 3.5)

Update: Adrian Peterson was held out on Wednesday and Thursday to rest his groin but was able to have a limited practice on Friday and is expected to play. Greg Jennings was held out on Wednesday but limited on Thursday and Friday is expected to play but will not be 100%.

The 5-5 Packers are on a three-game losing streak but are 3-2 at home. The 2-8 Vikings didn't enjoy their win over the Redskins long since they were pounded by the Seahawks who won by 21 points. The Vikings are a perfect 0-5 on the road in the United States of America. The Packers already won 44-31 in the earlier meeting.

1 @DET 24-34 10 WAS 34-27
2 @CHI 30-31 11 @SEA 20-41
3 CLE 27-31 12 @GB -
4 PIT 34-27 13 CHI -
5 BYE WEEK 14 @BAL -
6 CAR 10-35 15 PHI -
7 @NYG 7-23 16 @CIN -
8 GB 31-44 17 DET -
9 @DAL 23-27 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIN @ GB Rush Catch Pass
QB Christian Ponder 20 240,1
RB Adrian Peterson 60,1 4-20
RB Ben Tate 90,1 3-20
WR Greg Jennings 4-50
WR Cordarrelle Patterson 3-40
WR Jarius Wright 3-30
PK Blair Walsh 1 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Vikings season continues to swirl away and the remaining schedule is not all that kind as if they needed any more challenges. There's been no real progress made in the passing game while Adrian Peterson merely gets one year older without any chance of being in the playoffs. The Vikings lost their center John Sullivan to a concussion last week and that would only make matters worse if he cannot return for this loss.

QUARTERBACKS: HC Leslie Frazier declined to name the starting quarterback this week not that it would be of any tactical advantage or that he has any secret quarterbacks he's been waiting to use. Christian Ponder was so bad in Seattle that he gave way to Matt Cassel. I'll assume Ponder for now and update later on as if there is even one person waiting to set their fantasy lineup based upon the starting quarterback for the Vikings.

Ponder only passed for 145 yards and ran in one score in the first meeting.

RUNNING BACKS: Adrian Peterson turned in the rare down game in Seattle with 65 yards on 21 carries and no catches for only the second time this year. He complained that his groin injury was hurting a lot and he was held out of a couple of practices last week because of it.

The last thing the offense needs is for Peterson to be limited in any measure. He already has just one game over 100 rushing yards in the last six weeks. Whatever happens with the Vikings will always start and end with Peterson, bad groin or not. He gained only 60 yards on 13 carries in the first meeting with the Packers and added three catches for 23 yards.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Greg Jennings was held out of the Seattle game because of his Achilles but expects to be back for this week. He's been of minor consequence anyway with only two scores all year and fewer than 60 yards in each of his last five games. Jarius Wright took his place and ended with two scores on three catches for 69 yards as a complete fluke. Wright never gained more than 35 yards or scored in any other game this season. Overall this remains one of the least effective wideout units in the league.

The lack of a credible quarterback only ensures that no improvement is on the horizon. This will be Greg Jennings return to his old stadium but he only managed one catch for nine yards in the first meeting.

TIGHT ENDS: Kyle Rudolph remains out with a broken foot for a couple more weeks and in his place John Carlson is playing very well. He followed up his seven catch, 98 yard effort against the Redskins with five receptions for 69 yards in Seattle. 167 yards over two weeks is very notable on this team.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Packers defense has been worse in recent weeks thanks to injuries on both sides of the ball but how much that can benefit the Vikings with no passing game and a banged Peterson is harder to gauge. The starting quarterback is not only not been announced but there's no certainty that they don't swap him out for another during the game. The Packers are only average against the run and Peterson is the only obvious start on this entire team.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIN 22 14 30 15 19 17
Preventing Fantasy Points GB 21 14 21 22 8 15

 

1 @SF 28-34 10 PHI 13-27
2 WAS 38-20 11 @NYG 13-27
3 @CIN 30-34 12 MIN -
4 BYE WEEK 13 @DET -
5 DET 22-9 14 ATL -
6 @BAL 19-17 15 @DAL -
7 CLE 31-13 16 PIT -
8 @MIN 44-31 17 @CHI -
9 CHI 20-27 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
GB vs MIN Rush Catch Pass
QB Scott Tolzien 10 300,2
RB Eddie Lacy 90,1 3-20
WR Jarrett Boykin 5-80,1
WR Jordy Nelson 7-100,1
TE Brandon Bostick 3-30
PK Mason Crosby 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Packers continue their slide since Aaron Rodgers left in week nine but this week should be just what the team needs. The Packers have fallen a full game behind the Lions and Bears but still have one game against each - though both will be on the road. If at all possible, Rodgers will be back for next week in Detroit as that game will be a "win or sit home" sort of matchup. The season is in jeopardy for the Packers to be sure but they still have a chance to get back to the top.

QUARTERBACKS: Scott Tolzien is already named the starter and Aaron Rodgers takes one more week to let his collar bone heal up hopefully for a start the following week in Detroit. Tolzien has not been bad per se - just not able to score nearly enough to win. He passed for 280 yards against the Eagles and then 339 yards in New York last week. He is just good enough to keep the fantasy fortunes of both Jordy Nelson and Jarrett Boykin alive until Rodgers returns.

Rodgers passed for 285 yards and two scores in Minnesota.

RUNNING BACKS: Eddie Lacy's stats have taken a big hit with Tolzien encouraging defenses to load up against the run. He only gained 27 yards on 14 runs versus the Giants but scored once and added two catches for 21 yards. James Starks is down to only two carries per week as Lacy gets whatever work is still there. Lacy is still fantasy relevant but needs Rodgers to return before defenses give him more breathing room again.

Lacy ran for 94 yards and one score on 29 carries against the Vikes in the first meeting.

WIDE RECEIVERS: James Jones was already on a downturn this year anyway and swapping out for Tolzien has been of no help. Jones hasn't scored since back in week five and ends up around 40 or 50 yards tops in games. Jarrett Boykin was a dud when Seneca Wallace started but two weeks with Tolzien have been productive. Boykin caught eight passes for 112 yards versus the Eagles and then six receptions for 91 yards against the Giants last week. Jordy Nelson continues to be a strong play as well with 117 yards just last week. The entire offense is shrinking down to only two receivers but at least those two are producing decent stats.

Nelson had his best game of the year when he posted seven catches for 123 yards and two scores in the first meeting with the Vikings. Boykin ended with 89 yards on five receptions in that game.

TIGHT ENDS: Brian Bostick caught a touchdown against the Eagles but only had three receptions in that game. Last week was only one catch for 26 yards. There will be no reliable fantasy production from the tight ends here even though they could show up with a score in any game. No fantasy value here worth projecting.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This is certainly the best chance for Tolzien to throw for more than one score since eight other quarterbacks have done just that on the Vikings along with very healthy yardage. The Vikings rushing defense give up scores and yardage and on the road won't be any better. Strong plays for Tolzien, Lacy, Nelson and Boykin this week.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points GB 10 13 2 20 2 24
Preventing Fantasy Points MIN 30 27 25 30 30 28

WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA


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