FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA

Prediction: NYJ 10, BAL 20 (Line: BAL by 3)

The 5-5 Jets are on the road where they are only 1-4 but they have been perfect about winning and then losing every other week. Since the season opener, they win every other game and they just lost in Buffalo. It is not a binding agreement, but an odd and so far perfect pattern. The 4-6 Ravens are 3-1 at home so far and really need a win to get out of the division basement. This favors the Ravens but the pattern says the Jets.

1 TB 18-17 10 BYE WEEK
2 @NE 10-13 11 @BUF 14-37
3 BUF 27-20 12 @BAL -
4 @TEN 13-38 13 MIA -
5 @ATL 30-28 14 OAK -
6 PIT 6-19 15 @CAR -
7 NE 30-27 16 CLE -
8 @CIN 9-49 17 @MIA -
9 NO 26-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ @ BAL Rush Catch Pass
QB Geno Smith 20 170
RB Chris Ivory 60
RB Chris Johnson 50 3-20
WR Eric Decker 5-70,1
WR David Nelson 3-20
TE Jeff Cumberland 3-30
PK Nick Folk 1 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The biggest problem this week is that the Jets surprised both the Saints and Patriots but those came at home. On the road this team has never scored more than 14 points other than when facing the Falcons who don't even pretend they have a defense anymore. Geno Smith was benched last week for that shot to the ego and the real trend continues - the Jets are horrible when they leave home.

QUARTERBACKS: Geno Smith was benched last week and Matt Simms came in to throw a touchdown but HC Rex Ryan has already announced that Smith is the starter this week. He keeps getting worse though and only threw one touchdown over the last five games played. His yardage hasn't topped 160 in three weeks. He has supplemented his production with three rushing touchdowns but all those came in home games. Smith may start the game but there is no guarantee he will end it.

RUNNING BACKS: Chris Ivory is the lone bright spot in the last month and ran for a score in each of the last two games while gaining at least 98 rush yards in each. He needed a 69-yard run late in the Bills game to matter though. He's left Bilal Powell with only some relief work and no fantasy value anymore. Take away that long run in Buffalo and Redman has never gained more than 52 yards in any road game so far.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Santonio Holmes returned last week after being out for six games and managed two receptions for 71 yards in Buffalo. Stephen Hill is in such a decline now that he's gone two weeks without a catch despite getting seven passes thrown to him just last week. David Nelson is likely to take his place and yet has been a nonfactor himself. Jeremy Kerley remains out with a badly dislocated elbow. Overall this unit has only four touchdowns and the problem seems less about them than the passing.

TIGHT ENDS: Jeff Cumberland caught his third NFL touchdown last week but he struggles to turn in more than 40 yards in any game and Kellen Winslow is back to share the load as well. No fantasy value here though either tight end could score or have a decent game. There is just no reliability or consistency.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Ravens at home have only allowed three passing scores over four games and Smith is only getting worse. The Ravens have only allowed one rushing touchdown this season and that was in a road game. There is no fantasy play where aside from Ivory in the hope that he can gain enough yardage to yield a moderate game. That is not likely.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 29 24 29 14 7 29
Preventing Fantasy Points BAL 14 3 19 21 29 21

 

1 @DEN 27-49 10 CIN 20-17
2 CLE 14-6 11 @CHI 20-23
3 HOU 30-9 12 NYJ -
4 @BUF 20-23 13 PIT -
5 @MIA 26-23 14 MIN -
6 GB 17-19 15 @DET -
7 @PIT 16-19 16 NE -
8 BYE WEEK 17 @CIN -
9 @CLE 18-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
BAL vs NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Joe Flacco 20 250,2
RB Ray Rice 40 4-30
WR Marlon Brown 3-40,1
WR Jacoby Jones 2-30
WR Steve Smith 4-50
WR Torrey Smith 4-50
PK Justin Tucker 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Ravens are back at home where their only loss was by two points to the Packers long before they imploded. On the road, the Ravens are competitive and usually not quite good enough but at home they have been much better and get to play four more at home before the season concludes. This week is the exact sort of game where they have always stepped up - at home against a struggling offense..

QUARTERBACKS: Joe Flacco is on a five game scoring streak but he still has never thrown more than two touchdowns in any game and has been held to fewer than 250 yards for the last month while facing good secondaries in every game. He catches no break against the Jets secondary this week though Flacco is more likely to toss a couple of scores when at home.

RUNNING BACKS: Just when Ray Rice seems completely devoid of fantasy value, he pops off with 131 rushing yards and one score in Chicago. That was more than the previous four games combined though in fairness he has been pitted against very good defenses almost every week. Rice scored in three games so far and yet never at home. The Ravens should consider delaying this game for two hours since it seemed to work for Rice in Chicago. Rice remains a very risky play against all but the weakest of defenses.

WIDE RECEIVERS: While this remains a fairly unproductive unit, at least Torrey Smith scored in each of the last two games even though he was held under 50 yards in both. All other wideouts have been even worse with marginal yardage in every game. Marlon Brown was out last week with a sore knee but is expected back here. Brown leads the team with five receiving touchdowns even though he only averages about 38 yards per game. Smith is worth a start when the opponent is weak and he was on a nice string of 85+ yard games for the first five weeks before stepping down a notch since.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value though Dallas Clark has scored three times this year. But his yardage is minimal and remained below 35 yards in each of the last four weeks.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The interesting fact about the Jets is that they are great against the pass when at home and yet have allowed 14 touchdowns over the five road games this year. Almost three per week. And not against Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers but against Jake Locker, Matt Ryan and E.J. Manuel for example. Flacco should have a decent game here but he's too unreliable to expect anything more than an average game. Rice goes against a rushing defense that has been great no matter where they play. He looks like a lock for another big drop off again. The Jets are weaker against tight ends but that is too risky to expect. They are also weak against the #2 receiver. The primary wideout has never done anything against the Jets but the scoring has been all for the slot or #2 receiver. That doesn't bode well for Smith but should help out Brown if he is healthy and starting. Jacoby Jones or Tandon Doss could also profit just as easily.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points BAL 24 27 13 22 13 20
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 19 2 27 26 26 30

WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA


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