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FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Predictions Summary »  Player Rankings (Projections) »  myHuddle Projections by Team »  Projections Summary by Team »

WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA

Prediction: SD 13, KC 24 (Line: KC by 5)

Update: As expected, Keenan Allen only had a minor knee sprain and was able to practice fully will week. Eddie Royal is questionable with the same toe ailment he's had for a while and is expected to play.

The 4-6 Chargers are on a three game losing streak and are only 2-4 in road games. The 9-1 Chiefs come off their first loss of the year and shouldn't be down after that loss. This is a divisional game and chances are that tie-breakers could come into play with the Broncos if the Chargers can beat them next week. Losing here would be a disaster for the Chiefs who still have a shot at the division title and #1 seed.

1 HOU 28-31 10 DEN 20-28
2 @PHI 33-30 11 @MIA 16-20
3 @TEN 17-20 12 @KC -
4 DAL 30-21 13 CIN -
5 @OAK 17-27 14 NYG -
6 IND 19-9 15 @DEN -
7 @JAC 24-6 16 OAK -
8 BYE WEEK 17 KC -
9 @WAS 24-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SD @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Kellen Clemens 10 210
QB Philip Rivers 240,1
RB Donald Brown 40 2-20
RB Ryan Mathews 50
RB Danny Woodhead 20 4-30
WR Keenan Allen 7-70
WR Eddie Royal 4-40,1
TE Antonio Gates 6-50
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: The Chargers are hitting a tough stretch of the schedule with both meetings with the Chiefs left to play and one in Denver which by themselves likely assure a losing record. The offense has cooled from the early weeks and the Chargers are only now starting to face the better defenses. This week - the best defense in their stadium after they lost their first game of the year.

QUARTERBACKS: Although Philip Rivers scores every week, he's been locked at only one touchdown per game in four of the last five weeks. His yardage remains decent in most but this week he'll be facing one of the toughest defenses in the league. So far Rivers has not had to play against any of the top opponents against the pass.

RUNNING BACKS: Ryan Mathews comes off his third big game of the season when he ran for 127 yards on 19 carries in Miami. The problem is that he's very inconsistent in the number of carries he receives. It can be as low as three or as many as 22 and those came in consecutive weeks. If the Chargers are going to run, it will mostly go through Mathews.

Danny Woodhead rarely runs for more than 25 yards in any game but his role as a receiver has been his fantasy value. In recent weeks that has been less and the only real consistency to his bigger games is that they tend to come on the road against weak defenses. For the last two weeks Woodhead has only totaled around 40 yards and is slipping out of fantasy consideration.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Keenan Allen was injured in the fourth quarter of the loss to the Dolphins but on Monday HC Mike McCoy said that Allen's knee was fine. It was feared he had a hyperextension. I'll track it and make changes if warranted but early reports are that Allen should be okay. He's the only receiver of any real impact on this offense and even he's been quiet in three of the last four games. Vincent Brown and Eddie Royal are only reliable for around 30 yards per game though Royal has caught seven touchdowns already and five of those were in road games.

TIGHT ENDS: Antonio Gates caught a touchdown on his four catches for 52 yards in Miami but it was his first score since back in week four. He's been very consistent with 40 and 50 yard games without scoring. Ladarius Green led the team last week when he caught four passes for 81 yards but he rarely has more than one catch in all other games and is more likely to be a factor next year. He's worth watching this season and owning in a dynasty league but so far his current season value isn't enough to merit owning him.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Rivers should continue his string of single touchdown games because that's as good as almost anyone does when they visit the Chiefs and the yardage should be good without breaking 300 even in trash time. There is a chance that the Chiefs start out flat after the loss in Denver but this is in Arrowhead and a divisional matchup. Denver looms for them the next week but you cannot rely on them being anything but their normal dominating self at home. They have not allowed any rushing touchdowns in Kansas City so far and the yardage for runners remains very low there. The only attractive fantasy plays are hoping for moderate stats from Gates, Allen and possibly Woodhead if they will resume his role as a receiver. None of these players are likely to have a big game.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 6 7 17 6 9 31
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 10 10 13 1 1 2

 

1 @JAC 28-2 10 BYE WEEK
2 DAL 17-16 11 @DEN 17-27
3 @PHI 26--16 12 SD -
4 NYG 31-7 13 DEN -
5 @TEN 26-17 14 @WAS -
6 OAK 24-7 15 @OAK -
7 HOU 17-16 16 IND -
8 CLE 23-17 17 @SD -
9 @BUF 23-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 20 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 90,1 5-30
WR Donnie Avery 3-30,1
WR Dwayne Bowe 5-60
TE Anthony Fasano 3-20
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs are now tied for the best record in the NFL but unless they win in two weeks, chances are they are just another wildcard team. The remaining schedule is almost as light as the one that got them to 9-0 and their only two big challenges should be the Broncos and Colts - both played in Arrowhead. These Chiefs may have lost by ten points in Denver but the game was closer than the score suggests. This week is just a tune-up for the rematch with the Broncos in week 13.

QUARTERBACKS: Now we know. When the Chiefs are finally trailing on the scoreboard and must pass to catch up, Alex Smith still throws for 230 yards and two touchdowns like about half of their games. The other half he throws for 230 yards and no touchdowns. Somewhat troublesome was that Smith only completed 21 of 45 passes and he's bound to get some bad weather games coming up eventually. Smith can ratchet it up a notch but he's still mostly a game manager. He only averaged 11 yards per completion in Denver in his only game where he needed to throw deep.

RUNNING BACKS: Jamaal Charles was held to only 78 rush yards in Denver and a season worst two catches for a net six yard loss. After scoring in each of the first seven games, Charles hasn't reached the endzone for the last three weeks. But the last two games were road venues and even when he did not score at home he at least gained a total of 120 yards against the Browns. Charles has been a gold mine in every home game so far and this week should be no different.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Dwayne Bowe was arrested on speeding and marijuana charges but wasn't suspended and won't be subject to any league sanctions until after the trial if even then. Bowe was thrown a season high 14 passes in Denver but only caught four passes for 57 yards and scored for only the third time this year and the first time in six weeks. So far his season high is still only 66 yards and there is no reason to expect that to change. Donnie Avery is even less productive in this ineffective wideout group.

TIGHT ENDS: No fantasy value. Anthony Fasano caught a touchdown in Denver but it was his first of the year and he still only had 37 yards on four catches - both season high marks as well. Sean McGrath still figures in as well but even combined they would not be fantasy relevant.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chargers defense is weaker against the pass than the run but the Chiefs are not going to air it out any more than needed. Much of the Chargers rankings were built against some of the weakest teams and relevant is allowing four rushing scores in Washington and then another in Miami in their last two road games. Jamaal Charles is really the only reliable fantasy play from the team other than the defense. All you can hope for with Smith or Bowe is a moderate game at best.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 23 2 31 28 11 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 26 9 28 19 14 12

WEEK 12 NO at ATL (THU) DEN at NE NYJ at BAL TEN at OAK
CHI at STL IND at ARI PIT at CLE SF at WAS (MON)
CAR at MIA JAC at HOU SD at KC On Bye:
*UPDATED DAL at NYG MIN at GB TB at DET BUF, CIN, PHI, SEA


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