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Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 13
Steve Gallo
November 29, 2013
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Want to understand the game better, hunt for future break out players or try to spot trouble before it happens? “Beyond TDs and Tackles”  will be offering  a handful of players and situations that you should consider when you are watching the games or even just looking at the box score. Everyone knows which players blew up over the weekend but you can gain advantages by following the changes as they start and get better definition on how to value players. Have any questions? Just hit me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL or email me at gallo@thehuddle.com.

THREE DOWNS

Lockdown

Since it’s Thanksgiving week I’m going to highlight some CBs that have been very giving this year instead of ones that have locked down opposing WRs. 57.2Patrick Peterson is one of the better CBs in the league, but he’s allowed 6 TDs this year.

CORNERBACK Key Opposing WR(s) Receptions Allowed Receptions/Game Allowed Yards Allowed Yards/Game Allowed YAC TDs
Allowed
Passer
Rating*
Jerraud Powers DeSean Jackson
Riley Cooper
51 4.6 629 57.2 305 2 88.9
Patrick Peterson DeSean Jackson
Riley Cooper
35 3.2 478 43.5 225 6 84.1
Brandon Flowers Demaryius Thomas
Wes Welker
Eric Decker
49 4.5 636 57.8 279 2 100.4

*Passer rating is based on a QBs passer rating throwing at that CB.

Knockdown

If a QB is on his back he can’t put up numbers, and that hurts not just him but his WRs too. Look at what happened in Detroit today where Matt Flynn was sacked 7 times and managed to complete just 10 of 20 passes for 139 yards with no TDs and 1 interception. It’s not likely that Tom Brady or Ryan Tannehill have such a poor day, but the defenses they face means they have an uphill  battle if they are going to put up solid numbers in week 13.

QUARTERBACK Opponent Offensive Pressures Allowed Defensive Pressures Applied Fantasy Pts
Allowed To QBs Ranking
Ryan Tannehill Jets 141 185 23
Tom Brady Texans 133 203 14

Tannehill faces a Jets defense that is led by two extremely talented defensive linemen; Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson. Calvin Pace and Quinton Coples are also key cogs in getting after the QB. The foursome accounts for 23 (70%) of the Jets 33 sacks and 105 (57%) of their defensive pressures. With the game being in NY things don’t look for for Tannehill and crew. 

As for Brady, he’ll need to keep an eye on JJ Watt (10 sacks and 61 pressures (30%)) but Watt isn’t doing it all alone. Whitney Mercilus and Antonio Smith have combined for 15 sacks and 68 total pressures this season.

Shutdown

The NFL is a passing league, but a defense that can take away the run can be invaluable. Over their last three games, the Jets and Cardinals have combined to allow Darren Sproles, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Fred Jackson, CJ Spiller, Ray Rice, Bernard Pierce, Ben Tate, Dennis Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew, Jordan Todman, Trent Richardson and Donald Brown a grand total of 106 carries for 254 rushing yards, and a 2.4 YPC average.

RUNNING BACK Opponent YPC Rush Attempts
Allowed/Game
Rushing Yards/
Game Allowed
Fantasy Pts Allowed To RBs Ranking*
Lamar Miller Jets 2.9 25.5 72.6 29
LeSean McCoy
Bryce Brown
Cardinals 3.5 23.2 81.3 31

*Ranking is based on weeks 9-12

LeSean McCoy ranks #4 among RBs in fantasy scoring, but this week he has a very tough matchup. Over their last three games the Cardinals have held Ben Tate (9.4 pts), Dennis Johnson (3.1 pts), Maurice Jones-Drew (13.5 pts), Jordan Todman (1.4 pts), Trent Richardson (4.6 pts) and Donald Brown (0.9 pts) in check. MJD had by far the best game but without his rushing TD his 23 rushing yards and 12 receiving yards on  four catches would have been far from good. In a week where many will need wins to make the playoffs you have to come to the realization that McCoy won’t be carrying your fantasy team this week.

GRONK WATCH…

Week 12 saw Gronkowski play in 100% of the Patriots offensive snaps. It’s not like he wasn’t putting up great fantasy numbers but now with him not leaving the field it’s clearly evident that he’ll carry a team or two to a fantasy championship this year.

Rob Gronkowski Snaps/% Snaps Played PPS(Points/Snap) Fantasy Pts (PPR)
Week 7 48/64% .404 19.4
Week 8 33/50% .142 4.7
Week 9 49/64% .598 29.3
Week 10 BYE BYE BYE
Week 11 62/86% .273 16.9
Week 12 87/100% .253 22.0
Total 279/74% .331 92.3
Projected Low 50 .150 7.5
Projected High 80 .400 32
Projected Average 75 .250 18.75

This week Gronkowski faces a Texans team that over the last three weeks ranks 13th in average fantasy points/game allowed to TEs. After Gronkowski faces them this week they could end up moving up to a top 10 matchup.

SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE

You’ll have to wait until Monday night to watch the NFC game of the week. But that’s OK, by then the tryptophan from all the turkey you ate on Thanksgiving will have worn off and you won’t miss a single play as the Saints take on the Seahawks in Seattle. Season to date the Saints rank #2 in passing offense with 317.3 passing yards/game, and the Seahawks rank #2 in passing defense allowing just 180.4 passing yards/game. Yep, you already know it…Something’s Gotta Give!

2013 Regular Season Play Direction Report for New Orleans Saints

Saints Offense

2013 Regular Season Play Direction Report for Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Defense

It’s clear that each team has strengths that go head to head, and we are in for a very good game this Monday night. It will be interesting to see if the Seahawks can actually take Jimmy Graham away with their secondary, namely their stellar safeties – Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. No matter who wins, rest assured that something’s gotta give!


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