FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 13 GB at DET (THU) ATL at BUF JAC at CLE STL at SF
OAK at DAL (THU) CHI at MIN MIA at NYJ TB at CAR
PIT at BAL (THU) CIN at SD NE at HOU TEN at IND
*UPDATED ARI at PHI DEN at KC NYG at WAS NO at SEA (MON)

 

Prediction: MIA 20, NYJ 16 (Line: NYJ by 1.5)

Update: Jeremy Kerley is still expected to be out because of his elbow though he had limited practices all week. Santonio Holmes was held out of practices on Thursday and Friday because of his foot and hamstring and will be a game time decision. I am removing him from the projections because of the risk.

Both the Jets and Dolphins are 5-6 which this year means they might end up with a wildcard. The Jets have lost two straight and are just 1-5 on the road. The Dolphins are 3-3 at home. This is the first meeting this season and the one in New York will be the season finale. This has the look of a low scoring game

1 @CLE 23-10 10 @TB 19-22
2 @IND 24-20 11 SD 20-16
3 ATL 27-23 12 CAR 16-20
4 @NO 17-38 13 @NYJ -
5 BAL 23-26 14 @PIT -
6 BYE WEEK 15 NE -
7 BUF 21-23 16 @BUF -
8 @NE 17-27 17 NYJ -
9 CIN 22-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
MIA @ NYJ Rush Catch Pass
QB Ryan Tannehill 20 200,1
RB Lamar Miller 50 2-10
RB Knowshon Moreno 80,1 2-20
WR Brian Hartline 6-60
WR Mike Wallace 5-80,1
TE Charles Clay 4-30
PK Caleb Sturgis 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Dolphins continue to struggle in any road game losing to the Buccaneers just three weeks ago. That's unfortunate with three road trips to play and then hosting the Jets and Patriots still left on the schedule. The offense still has never scored more than 27 points in any game and not more than 22 since the week six bye. Worse still is the fair weather Fins playing in New York, Pittsburgh and then Buffalo.

QUARTERBACKS: Eleven games into the season and Ryan Tannehill still scores every week. He averages just a bit over one per game and the yardage tends to vary wildly between 200 and 300 yards. Tannehill tends to throw for two scores in away games lately and that fits what should happen here.

RUNNING BACKS: Daniel Thomas injured his ankle and initially it was feared he would miss the rest of the season but now it appears he may be back in time for the meaningless finale. That means Lamar Miller gets a heavier load but still not the full enchilada because the rookie Mike Gillislee will step up to joining the backfield committee. Unfortunately all the remaining matchups go against very good rushing defenses. Taking over the #32 rushing offense doesn't exactly promote a lot of confidence.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Rishard Matthews had his 15 minutes of fame when he blew up on the Buccaneers but he's quickly back to mediocre performances. Brian Hartline is great for gaining around 60 yards every week but he rarely does much more and he never scores. Mike Wallace comes off his best game of the year when he scored once in Carolina on his five catches for 127 yards but that is only his second touchdown. His five games over 75 yards are balanced out with give games under 30 yards. This is a mediocre group at best but Wallace can hurt an opponent if they allow him to get deep and Tannehill actually connects with him.

TIGHT ENDS: Charles Clay can score and even gain decent yards in the right matchup gut he spends plenty of time with sub-3o yard performances. He's never more than a desperation spot start.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Jets at home never allow more than two passing scores and usually just one with marginal yardage. But they have been burned deep numerous times in the last several weeks and that speaks right to Wallace and the Fins desire to connect on deep passes. The Jets are the best team at stopping running backs and in New York no runner gained more than 65 rushing yards. This may be Millers big chance but it is in the exact wrong place for much to happen. There is no player here that is an attractive start other than taking a risk on Wallace catching a deep pass for a score.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points MIA 21 32 11 14 17 15
Preventing Fantasy Points NYJ 20 1 23 24 29 30

 

1 TB 18-17 10 BYE WEEK
2 @NE 10-13 11 @BUF 14-37
3 BUF 27-20 12 @BAL 3-19
4 @TEN 13-38 13 MIA -
5 @ATL 30-28 14 OAK -
6 PIT 6-19 15 @CAR -
7 NE 30-27 16 CLE -
8 @CIN 9-49 17 @MIA -
9 NO 26-20 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
NYJ vs MIA Rush Catch Pass
QB Geno Smith 140
RB Chris Ivory 80,1
RB Chris Johnson 60 3-20
RB Bilal Powell 30 1-10
WR Eric Decker 4-60
WR Greg Salas 3-40
TE Jeff Cumberland 4-30
PK Nick Folk 3 FG 1 XP

Pregame Notes: Since leaving the bye, the Jets dropped two in a row and were never worse than when they were dominated last week by the Ravens. The offense continues to offer minimal passing, plenty of turnovers and a rushing effort that prefers a very soft matchup to matter. The remaining schedule is not that bad though and if Geno Smith can keep it together they have a chance. That all said, pretty unlikely.

QUARTERBACKS: It says enough when the coach has to rename Geno Smith as the starter almost every Monday. Since starting the year with some promise, Smith has only passed for one touchdown in the last six games while tossing ten interceptions in that time. He's a risk to be pulled for Matt Simms literally at any time.

RUNNING BACKS: Chris Ivory injured his ankle last week but remained in the game. The results of his MRI won't come out until Wednesday so I will update later if needed. Bilal Powell would take over if it comes to that. Ivory was on a nice roll with around 100 yards and a score in two straight games before he hurt himself in Baltimore. Ivory had no roll as a receiver but Powell likely would since he is still the third down back. I am assuming Ivory plays with only minor limitation for now but will update.

WIDE RECEIVERS: There is no fantasy value here. None. the entire unit only scored fou8r times this year and two were with Jeremy Kerley who remains out with a dislocated elbow. As Smith has declined, he's brought all the wideouts down with him. There is zero reliable fantasy value here.

TIGHT ENDS: The tight ends are no better than the wideouts. They only scored once in the last five weeks and are far too inconsistent to merit any fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: There's little need to weigh the matchups when the Jets are ranked 30th or 31st for running backs, quarterbacks and wide receivers. Geno Smith has not throw a score in over a month. Ivory is worth a low level start so long as he ends the week healthy enough to play.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points NYJ 31 31 30 18 11 30
Preventing Fantasy Points MIA 7 28 4 26 28 23

WEEK 13 GB at DET (THU) ATL at BUF JAC at CLE STL at SF
OAK at DAL (THU) CHI at MIN MIA at NYJ TB at CAR
PIT at BAL (THU) CIN at SD NE at HOU TEN at IND
*UPDATED ARI at PHI DEN at KC NYG at WAS NO at SEA (MON)

 



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