FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Beyond TDs and Tackles: Week 15
Steve Gallo
December 13, 2013
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Want to understand the game better, hunt for future break out players or try to spot trouble before it happens? “Beyond TDs and Tackles”  will be offering  a handful of players and situations that you should consider when you are watching the games or even just looking at the box score. Everyone knows which players blew up over the weekend but you can gain advantages by following the changes as they start and get better definition on how to value players. Have any questions? Just hit me on twitter @SteveGalloNFL or email me at gallo@thehuddle.com.

ROAD WARRIORS

Playing on the road in the NFL isn’t an easy thing to do. Because of that, many players don’t put up quite as good numbers when playing on the road. That is unless they’re a road warrior. Riley Cooper has been a road warrior of late, averaging 28.6 fantasy points/game in his last three road games.

Riley Cooper
Week Opponent Pts Receptions Receiving Yards TDs Targets Points/Target
Week 6 @ TB 22.0 4 120 1 6 3.7
Week 9 @ OAK 38.7 5 139 3 6 6.5
Week 10 @ GB 25.2 3 102 2 5 5.0
Totals   85.9 12 361 6 17 5.1

As a comparison, Josh Gordon’s points/target (PPTgt) over his last four games is 2.6, Calvin Johnson’s PPTgt for the season is 2.0, and Cooper’s big-play teammate, DeSean Jackson’s, is 2.2. Of special note is that 6 of Cooper’s 7 TDs have come on the road this year.

Cooper isn’t the only road warrior of late. On the defensive side of the ball, DeMeco Ryan and Muhammad Wilkerson have been terrors on the road too.

Muhammad Wilkerson
Week Opponent Pts Solo Tackles Assisted Tackles Sacks INTS Passes Defended FF & FR
Week 5 @ ATL 18.0 5 2 1 0 0 1 (FF)
Week 8 @ CIN 13.0 2 2 1 1 1 0
Week 11 @ BUF 17.0 7 2 0 0 1 0
Week 12 @ BAL 17.0 5 1 2 0 0 0
Totals   65.0 19 7 4 1 2 1

Season to date, Wilkerson has scored 130 fantasy points, and 50% of those points have come in his last four away games. This week he faces a Panthers team that for the season ranks 3rd in points allowed to DEs.

DeMeco Ryans, like his teammate, Riley Cooper, has been a road warrior in his last three road games. He is averaging 24.3 in his those three road games. This week DeMeco Ryans faces a Vikings team that over the past month ranks 3rd in average points/game allowed to LBs.

DeMeco Ryans
Week Opponent Pts Solo Tackles Assisted Tackles Sacks INTS Passes Defended FF & FR
Week 6 @ TB 24.0 12 0 0 0 0 0
Week 9 @ OAK 21.0 9 2 0 0 0 0
Week 10 @ GB 28.0 11 2 0 1 0 0
Totals   73.0 32 4 0 1 1 0

OCCASIONALLY A ROAD WARRIOR

Ray Rice hasn’t done much for his fantasy owners, but more often than not, he’s been an occasional road warrior. Rice has scored 47.8% of his fantasy points in three road games this year.  In his other three games he’s ranged from horrible (1.7 pts) to not so bad (11.2 & 11.6 pts).

Ray Rice
Week Opponent Pts Points/Touch Rushes-Yards-TDs Catches-Yards-TDs
Week 1 @ DEN 21.1 1.06 12-36-1 8-35-0
Week 4 @ BUF 1.7 0.34 5-17-0 0-0-0
Week 5 @ MIA 28.2 0.85 27-74-2 6-28-0
Week 7 @ PIT 11.2 0.59 15-45-0 4-27-0
Week 10 @ CIN 11.6 0.48 18-30-0 6-26-0
Week 11 @ CHI 23.8 0.85 25-131-1 3-17-0
Totals   97.6 0.76 102-333-4 27-133-0

Rice gets a stout Lions front 7, yes, the same stout front 7 that let LeSean McCoy romp his way to 217 rushing yards in 12 feet of snow last Sunday. One game doesn’t define the Lions’ defense. Prior to last week, the Lions defense ranked 32nd in fantasy points/game allowed to RBs.

HOME SWEET HOME

In the Wizard of Oz, Dorthy said it best, “there’s no place like home; there’s no place like home; there’s no place like home…”  Bobby Rainey and his owners most certainly would agree. In three home games Rainey is averaging 23.5 fantasy points/game.

Bobby Rainey
Week Opponent Pts Points/Touch Rushes-Yards-TDs Catches-Yards-TDs
Week 10 MIA 12.6* 1.40 8-45-1 1-11-0
Week 11 ATL 36.7 1.15 30-163-2 2- 4-1
Week 14 BUF 21.3 0.85 22-127-1 3- -4-0
Totals   70.6 1.07 60-335-4 6-11-1

*Rainey didn’t start but came in due to injury.

To put Rainey’s PPTch (Points/Touch) into perspective, Jamaal Charles has a PPTch of 1.01, and Adrian Peterson’s is 0.79.

Another player that fits the “Home Sweet Home” mold is Delanie Walker. Walker missed last week due to a concussion, but looks to be on track to play this week. He might very well be available on your waiver wire too. In six homes games Delanie Walker is averaging 14.02 points/game.

Delanie Walker
Week Opponent Pts Points/Target Catches-Yards-TDs Targets
Week 3 SD 9.9 1.24 5-49-0 8
Week 4 NYJ 10.4 2.60 3-14-1 4
Week 5 KC 8.3 1.38 4-42-0 6
Week 7 SF 14.2 2.84 3-52-1 5
Week 10 JAX 16.2 2.03 4-62-1 8
Week 11 IND 25.1 2.51 10-91-1 10
Totals   84.1 2.05 29-310-3 41

NOT SO WELL TRAVELED

Marques Colston has had his issues this year, especially on the road where he’s averaging 6.12 points/game.

Maques Colston
Week Opponent Pts Points/Target Catches-Yards-TDs Targets
Week 2 @ TB 10.3 1.47 4-63-0 7
Week 5 @ CHI 3.5 1.75 2-15-0 2
Week 6 @ NE 2.1 0.70 1-11-0 3
Week 12 @ ATL 8.0 1.33 4-40-0 6
Week 13 @ SEA 6.7 0.96 4-27-0 7
Totals   30.6 1.22 15-156-0 25

Last week, AT HOME in the Superdome, Colston scored 33.50 points (9-125-2, 13 targets), and had a PPTgt of 2.58.

GRONK WATCH…

Unfortunately, Gronk Watch is now going to be Gronk Rehab because the Gronk train was derailed in week 14 by TJ Ward. Gronkowski tore both is ACL and LCL. If you need to sift thru waivers for a TE to replace Gronkowski give Delanie Walker a look if he’s still available on your waiver wire.

CALVIN WHO?

Josh Gordon has 125 or more receiving yards in four straight games. If he gets to 125+ this week he’ll join Calvin Johnson and Pat Studstill as the only players in NFL history with 125 receiving yards in 5 straight games. Gordon also has a total of 7 games with 125 or more receiving yards this year. The record for 125 yard receiving games in a season is 8, held by Calvin Johnson (2012) and Lance Alworth (1965).

SOMETHING’S GOTTA GIVE

This week I’m doing “Something’s Gotta Give” a bit differently. Rather than point out one matchup, I want to take a different look at the playoffs.

Did you know that 25 teams are still in the running to make the playoffs? Yes, 25 teams. That’s tied for the 4th most teams (since the league moved to a 16-game schedule in 1978) still being alive with three weeks to go in the season. While it might be hard to believe the Raiders, Jaguars, Bills and Browns could all theoretically end the season as Super Bowl Champions. To think, the NFL is toying with adding more playoff teams. If they do that then the loser of the National Championship Game (or whatever they’ll call it) might be able to win the Super Bowl.

The only teams that have been put out of their misery are the Texans, Giants, Rams, Buccaneers, Vikings, Falcons and Redskins. The Texans, Redskins and Falcons all won their divisions last year, and the Vikings made the playoffs as a Wild Card. I think it’s safe to say that for those teams there’s nothing left to give.


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