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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 15 SD at DEN (THU) CIN at PIT NE at MIA SEA at NYG
ARI at TEN GB at DAL NO at STL SF at TB
BUF at JAC HOU at IND NYJ at CAR WAS at ATL
*UPDATED CHI at CLE KC at OAK PHI at MIN BAL at DET (MON)

Prediction: KC 24, OAK 20 (Line: KC by 4.5)

Update: Denarius Moore is expected back this week but all that does is short-cut whatever Andre Holmes might have done. Minor fantasy impact here.

The Chiefs made up for the loss to the Broncos by waxing the Redskins and now play out their season with two road games against divisional opponents they have already beaten. The Raiders are on a three game losing streak with no end in sight. This is a replay of week six when the Chiefs won 24-7 in Kansas City.

1 @JAC 28-2 10 BYE WEEK
2 DAL 17-16 11 @DEN 17-27
3 @PHI 26--16 12 SD 38-41
4 NYG 31-7 13 DEN 28-35
5 @TEN 26-17 14 @WAS 45-10
6 OAK 24-7 15 @OAK -
7 HOU 17-16 16 IND -
8 CLE 23-17 17 @SD -
9 @BUF 23-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ OAK Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 20 190,2
RB Jamaal Charles 70,1 5-40,1
WR Donnie Avery 4-50
WR Dwayne Bowe 5-60,1
TE Sean McGrath 2-20
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: Losing both matchups with the Broncos not only sinks the Chiefs to only a wildcard, chances are strong that they'll end up in Denver again if they can reach the AFC Championship. The Chiefs already have a three game lead for the #1 wild card so none of the final games really matter other than notching one win.

QUARTERBACKS: Alex Smith is playing far better in recent games and since being forced to throw by the Broncos, he's strung together four straight efforts with multiple touchdowns in each. Smith passed for only 128 yards in the first meeting with the Raiders because that was all they needed to win by 17 points.

RUNNING BACKS: Jamaal Charles - alone with Peyton Manning - is extremely well represented in fantasy playoffs this year as the best back to own. Charles already scored 13 times and is a lock for around 100 total yards or more every week. He ran for 78 yards and two scores on the Raiders back in week six while adding 50 yards on five catches.

Knile Davis remains the backup but the coaching staff is getting more comfortable with the rookie. He ran 11 times for 30 yards and a score in the blowout over the Redskins for his first action of any measure.

WIDE RECEIVERS: The accelerated passing of the past month brought Dwayne Bowe back to life. Granted, he still has not gained more than 70 yards in any game but at least he scored in three of the last four and finally plays like a primary wide receiver. None of the wideouts did much with the minimal passing in the last meeting with the Raiders.

TIGHT ENDS: Anthony Fasano remains out with a concussion and sprained knee but Sean McGrath is not a factor as his replacement. Fasano was on a three game scoring streak before being injured in the second Broncos meeting.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: Chances are the Chiefs won't just run on the Raiders who sport one of the weaker secondaries. This should end up as a solid win but also a chance to continue to work on the passing success of recent weeks. The Raiders are very weak against wide receivers which makes Bowe at least a moderate play this week. Charles is a lock for a good game of course but none of the others offer enough reliability to merit consideration.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 17 1 31 28 14 1
Preventing Fantasy Points OAK 22 17 27 15 9 24

 

1 @IND 17-21 10 @NYG 20-24
2 JAC 19-9 11 @HOU 28-23
3 @DEN 21-37 12 TEN 19-23
4 WAS 14-24 13 @DAL 24-31
5 SD 27-17 14 @NYJ 27-37
6 @KC 7-24 15 KC -
7 BYE WEEK 16 @SD -
8 PIT 21-18 17 DEN -
9 PHI 20-49 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
OAK vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Matthew McGloin 200,1
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
WR Andre Holmes 3-40
WR James Jones 5-90,1
WR Greg Little 3-40
WR Denarius Moore 4-50
TE Mychal Rivera 2-10
PK Sebastian Janikowski 2 FG 2 XP

Pregame Notes: The Raiders are now in an "evaluate" state deciding what they want to do at quarterback and running back. Darren McFadden's time is over in Oakland and he's been replaced by a career backup. Neither Terrelle Pryor nor Matt McGloin appear to be the answer at quarterback but McGloin will take the rest of the starts. The final schedule could not be worse - home against the Chiefs and Broncos and on the road to San Diego. It doesn't pay to spin through the division when you are the worst team there.

QUARTERBACKS: Terrelle Pryor was still the starter in week six when he passed for 216 yards and one score with three interceptions in Kansas City. Matthew McGloin started out with a strong game against the weak Texans but since has shown to be no better than the opposing defense permits and likely not the answer either. He'll look even worse three games from now.

RUNNING BACKS: Rashad Jennings finally cleared all his concussion tests and will return this week. Marcel Reece was surprisingly effective against the Jets but returns to third down duty. Back in week six, Darren McFadden ran for 56 yards on seven carries while still the primary back. The only real advantage here is that the Raiders prefer to run as much as they can and that usually results in high carries to share, especially in home games.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Rod Streater comes off his best game of the year when he caught seven passes for 130 yards and one touchdown against the Jets injury-ravaged secondary. Streater was held to only 46 yards in Kansas City this year. Denarius Moore remains out since week 11 and his replacement Andre Holmes cooled after posting 136 yards in Dallas versus his old team. Holmes gained 63 yards on three catches in New York last week. Moore was productive in the last meeting with the Chiefs and scored once in his five catches for 82 yards.

TIGHT ENDS: Mychal Rivera only caught two passes for ten yards in Kansas City this year and rarely has more than 30 yards in any game. But he scored in two of the last four games and can matter much more in games when he is not facing the best defense in the NFL against tight ends like this week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The problem for McGloin is that he is not mobile like Pryor who ran for 56 yards on the Chiefs. McGloin stands in the pocket and takes a beating. He faces a defense that sacked Pryor nine times this season. The Chiefs have been weaker against the pass in recent weeks but facing Manning twice did not help. The only reasonable fantasy play here will be Jennings who could have a moderate game with a shot at a touchdown if Reece doesn't steal it.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points OAK 22 9 28 32 29 17
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 20 15 24 1 2 1

WEEK 15 SD at DEN (THU) CIN at PIT NE at MIA SEA at NYG
ARI at TEN GB at DAL NO at STL SF at TB
BUF at JAC HOU at IND NYJ at CAR WAS at ATL
*UPDATED CHI at CLE KC at OAK PHI at MIN BAL at DET (MON)


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