FANTASY FOOTBALL IN-SEASON FEATURES

Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 16 ARI at SEA DEN at HOU NE at BAL PIT at GB
CHI at PHI IND at KC NO at CAR TB at STL
CLE at NYJ MIN at CIN NYG at DET TEN at JAC
*UPDATED DAL at WAS MIA at BUF OAK at SD ATL at SF (MON)

Prediction: IND 17, KC 27 (Line: KC by 6.5)

The 9-5 Colts have already clinched their division and while there is a chance they could compete for the #2 seed, reality says they are locked into the #3 or #4 and get no bye. The Colts are 4-3 in road games. The 11-3 Chiefs have won their last two and are 5-2 at home. The Colts really have nothing to win here but the Chiefs have to win to remain in contention for the AFC West.

1 OAK 21-17 10 STL 8-38
2 MIA 20-24 11 @TEN 30-27
3 @SF 27-7 12 @ARI 11-40
4 @JAC 37-3 13 TEN 22-14
5 SEA 34-28 14 @CIN 28-42
6 @SD 9-19 15 HOU 25-3
7 DEN 39-33 16 @KC -
8 BYE WEEK 17 JAC -
9 @HOU 27-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
IND @ KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck 30,1 220,1
RB Trent Richardson 40 4-30
WR T.Y. Hilton 6-70
WR Hakeem Nicks 6-70
TE Coby Fleener 2-20
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 3 XP

Pregame Notes: The Colts really have nothing to play for though resting players here would make no sense either. That won't be true in week 17 when the Jaguars show up and most of the Indy starters won't play a full game. The Colts are only 3-3 since their week 8 bye and their wins have come against just divisional matchups since midseason.

QUARTERBACKS: Aside from the one great game in Cincy, Andrew Luck has struggled to throw even one score in the last six weeks and most efforts end up with fewer than 200 passing yards. Luck can show up big on occasion but mostly he's turned very average since Reggie Wayne left and this week faces a solid defense.

RUNNING BACKS: Donald Brown has a stinger that is making his status questionable so far this week. In his place, Trent Richardson produced 64 rushing yards on 19 carries and added 38 yards and a score on his four receptions. That was against the visiting Texans though and he had been held under ten carries in the six previous games. I will assume that Brown cannot play and add him in later if his status upgrades. There really is no reason to rush him back since there is nothing to win and this will be a tough game anyway.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Last week the Colts made certain that T.Y. Hilton would be more involved and threw him 12 passes that ended up as eight catches for 78 yards. That was his best effort in five weeks and he's lost all fantasy value since Reggie Wayne left and secondaries now look to him as the primary concern. Da'Rick Rogers was held to only two catches for 23 yards in the win over the Texans because that game was well in hand early and needed little passing anyway. Lavon Brazill may be back this week as well after being held out of week 15 because of his foot.

TIGHT ENDS: Coby Fleener never stepped up to being more than just an average tight end and scored only once in the last seven weeks. He's reliable only for maybe 40 yards per week.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Chiefs defense has been less effective in recent weeks due largely to injuries and playing the Broncos twice. Every opponent passes for at least one score but the rushing totals remain low for visiting running backs and the Colts may be without Donald Brown anyway. This will be another minimal game for Fleener against the best defense for tight ends. Really none of the Colts are strong plays this week but Rogers has some upside here since secondary receivers typically score on the Chiefs.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points IND 9 19 20 18 9 27
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 19 10 22 1 2 1

 

1 @JAC 28-2 10 BYE WEEK
2 DAL 17-16 11 @DEN 17-27
3 @PHI 26--16 12 SD 38-41
4 NYG 31-7 13 DEN 28-35
5 @TEN 26-17 14 @WAS 45-10
6 OAK 24-7 15 @OAK 56-31
7 HOU 17-16 16 IND -
8 CLE 23-17 17 @SD -
9 @BUF 23-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC vs IND Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 10 230,2
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 3-40,1
WR Donnie Avery 4-50
WR Dwayne Bowe 5-60,1
TE Sean McGrath 2-20

Pregame Notes: The final two games won't be easy and that road trip to San Diego could be tougher than thought since they just took down the Broncos. Short of a surprising stumble by the Broncos, the Chiefs are likely locked into being a wildcard despite ending as well as 13-3 on the season. That would make this the final home game and even more important to notch a win here.

QUARTERBACKS: Alex Smith has certainly kicked up up a notch in recent weeks since he passed for 14 touchdowns over just the last five games and topped 280 yards in three of those. After spending the first half of the season as little more than a game manager, Smith has been very productive and throws multiple scores in all the most recent games. He comes off a career-best five touchdown passes against the Raiders last week.

RUNNING BACKS: Just in case there was any question - and there certainly was not - Jamaal Charles turned in one of the best fantasy football performances in he last 20 years. He scored four receiving touchdowns and one more as runner with a total of 215 yards. The Chiefs have been so good lately that even Knile Davis scored in each of the last two weeks.

WIDE RECEIVERS: Dwayne Bowe settled for a quiet game in Oakland since Charles was doing all the heavy lifting. But Bowe scored in three of the previous four games and remained right above 50 yards in each. In this offense, that was an accomplishment. No other wideouts here have scored more than twice or can avoid the occasional game with either one or even no catches.

TIGHT ENDS: Sean McGrath scored last week replacing Anthony Fasano who is out with a sprained knee but McGrath never has more than a couple of short catches as did Fasano. Smith will throw a score here in each of the last four games but no yardage means no real fantasy value.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: The Colts secondary has been much weaker in recent road games with most opponents throwing for multiple touchdowns. The Colts are average against the run but have managed to play all year without facing any top runners. This week the normal starts apply - Charles is a must start regardless and Bowe offers some moderate promise for his standard 60 yards and one score. Smith has been throwing well in recent weeks and should be good but won't have a big game here.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 20 1 31 30 14 1
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 23 12 25 8 15 9

WEEK 16 ARI at SEA DEN at HOU NE at BAL PIT at GB
CHI at PHI IND at KC NO at CAR TB at STL
CLE at NYJ MIN at CIN NYG at DET TEN at JAC
*UPDATED DAL at WAS MIA at BUF OAK at SD ATL at SF (MON)


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