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Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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WEEK 17 BAL at CIN DEN at OAK JAC at IND STL at SEA
BUF at NE DET at MIN KC at SD TB at NO
CAR at ATL GB at CHI NYJ at MIA WAS at NYG
*UPDATED CLE at PIT HOU at TEN SF at ARI PHI at DAL

Prediction: KC 10, SD 34 (Line: SD by 10)

This is a replay of week 12 when the Chefs lost 38-41 against the visiting Chargers but the difference this time is that the Chiefs just do not care. They are the #1 wildcard in the AFC no matter what happens here. The Chargers have to win this game and have the Fins lose to the Jets and the Ravens lose to the Bengals. That's all unlikely but the biggest factor in this game is that HC Andy Reid already said he was considering resting some players. That means the Chargers may get a free win. But wait. There's more! The Dolphins play at 1 PM and this is a 4:25 game. So the Chargers may already know they have nothing to play for either.

1 @JAC 28-2 10 BYE WEEK
2 DAL 17-16 11 @DEN 17-27
3 @PHI 26--16 12 SD 38-41
4 NYG 31-7 13 DEN 28-35
5 @TEN 26-17 14 @WAS 45-10
6 OAK 24-7 15 @OAK 56-31
7 HOU 17-16 16 IND 7-23
8 CLE 23-17 17 @SD -
9 @BUF 23-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
KC @ SD Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 100,1
RB Jamaal Charles
RB Knile Davis 60 1-10
WR Donnie Avery 4-50
WR Dwayne Bowe
WR Junior Hemingway 4-30,1
TE Anthony Fasano 3-20

Pregame Notes: Here is why week 17 championships are exactly the wrong thing to do. The best running back is probably going to be wearing a baseball cap and looking bored on the sidelines. Alex Smith and Dwayne Bowe were never more than moderate fantasy plays but missing out on Jamaal Charles is a disaster.

That the Chiefs are openly talking about resting players means that you cannot rely on anyone on this team this week. But you can make a safe assumption that the Chargers are going to have a much easier time scoring on them and they already posted 41 points the last time.

What is likely to happen is that Charles, Smith, Bowe and any other notable starter will either take a few token snaps and leave before getting hurt or they just won't play. Since you get to suit up 45 players, there won't be a wholesale swap because they need enough players to field a full offense, defense and special teams. But for fantasy purposes, you have to assume that Charles in particular and likely Bowe as well will play so little as to not even bother.

That means Knile Davis will see appreciable carries for the first time and secondary receivers will be give a bigger load than they would normally.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: You cannot use any player here with any sense of reliability. There is just no way of knowing and you have to assume the worst. Davis might make an interesting watch but he will be on the road in San Diego where the Chargers want to win the game and remain in contention assuming it is not already over for them by the time this game goes off. Regardless, do not consider any Chiefs as worth a fantasy start. This is why ending in week 16 makes so much sense. This is how the person smart enough to draft Jamaal Charles is getting screwed and a lesser team may be winning your league.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points KC 13 1 31 31 14 1
Preventing Fantasy Points SD 23 13 30 14 8 7

 

1 HOU 28-31 10 DEN 20-28
2 @PHI 33-30 11 @MIA 16-20
3 @TEN 17-20 12 @KC 41-38
4 DAL 30-21 13 CIN 10-17
5 @OAK 17-27 14 NYG 37-14
6 IND 19-9 15 @DEN 27-20
7 @JAC 24-6 16 OAK 26-13
8 BYE WEEK 17 KC -
9 @WAS 24-30 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
SD vs KC Rush Catch Pass
QB Kellen Clemens 170
QB Philip Rivers 300,2
RB Donald Brown 70,1 2-20
RB Ryan Mathews 80,1 3-20
RB Danny Woodhead 20 3-40
WR Keenan Allen 6-100,1
WR Eddie Royal 3-30
TE Antonio Gates 5-40
TE Ladarius Green 2-30,1
PK Nick Novak 2 FG 4 XP

Pregame Notes: The Chargers need help to get a wildcard and they must have the Ravens and the Dolphins both lose. If either win, this game is just for pride and since both those games happen in the first round of games and this is a later afternoon game, the Chargers will already know what happens with those other two. Chances are high that this game will just be for Charger pride and a final home game for the year.

How this game goes off is harder to call but more likely to be good since the Chiefs are going to be resting some starters as it is meaningless for them. They are already locked into the #1 wild card slot. That not only means less points scored by the Chiefs but some defensive players are also likely to get a lighter day if not just be inactive.

Philip Rivers had one of his best games of the year when he passes for 392 yards and three touchdowns in Kansas City though they did face them right after they lost an emotional first game to the Broncos and were just flat. Rivers always scores at least once and has good to great yardage in most home games.

Danny Woodhead is better in most home games but rarely so productive as to merit a fantasy start. He settled for 25 yards and one score on six runs and then scored again on his four catches for 45 yards in Kansas City, He too took advantage of the Chiefs that day as well. Ryan Mathews ran for a score and 55 yards that game and is currently on a three game streak of touchdowns and at least 99 rush yards.

Antonio Gates is in major decline and scored just once in the last 11 games while rarely ever gaining more than 50 yards in any game. He was held to only 21 yards on three catches in Kansas City. Ladarius Green had a season best three catches for 80 yards and a score in the previous Chiefs meeting but has since been blanked in the last two weeks.

Keenan Allen caught nine passes for 124 yards in Kansas City and scored five times in just the last three weeks for a total of eight touchdowns on the year.

MATCH TO THE DEFENSE: This game is harder to call with the Chiefs resting players and the Chargers likely to have just learned they are no longer in contention for the playoffs. But this is a home game and it is in effect their playoff game. The fact the Chiefs won't care makes Philip Rivers, Ryan Matthews and Keenan Allen even more appealing than usual. Danny Woodhead and Antonio Gates may show up as well but they've both been less effective in recent weeks anyway.

RANKS (1-32, 1 = BEST) TEAM QB RB WR TE PK DEF
Gaining Fantasy Points SD 9 4 18 5 6 31
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 17 14 22 1 2 1

WEEK 17 BAL at CIN DEN at OAK JAC at IND STL at SEA
BUF at NE DET at MIN KC at SD TB at NO
CAR at ATL GB at CHI NYJ at MIA WAS at NYG
*UPDATED CLE at PIT HOU at TEN SF at ARI PHI at DAL


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