Predictions & Projections
David Dorey
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Wildcard Kansas City at Indianapolis 4:35 PM EST San Diego at Cincinnati 1:05 PM EST
*UPDATED  New Orleans at Philadelphia 8:10 PM EST San Francisco at Green Bay 4:40 PM EST

Prediction: KC 17, IND 24 (Line: IND by 2.5)

The Chiefs end 11-5 on the season and yet accept a wild card thanks to the Broncos. The Chiefs are 6-2 on the road. The 11-5 Colts are 6-2 at home and already won this matchup just two weeks ago 23-7 in Kansas City.

1 @JAC 28-2 10 BYE WEEK
2 DAL 17-16 11 @DEN 17-27
3 @PHI 26--16 12 SD 38-41
4 NYG 31-7 13 DEN 28-35
5 @TEN 26-17 14 @WAS 45-10
6 OAK 24-7 15 @OAK 56-31
7 HOU 17-16 16 IND 7-23
8 CLE 23-17 17 @SD 24-27
9 @BUF 23-13 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
Rush Catch Pass
QB Alex Smith 30 - 200,1
RB Jamaal Charles 80,1 4-40 -
TE Anthony Fasano - 2-20 -
WR Dwayne Bowe - 4-45 -
RB Dexter McCluster - 4-35 -
WR Donnie Avery - 2-30 -
WR Junior Hemingway - 3-20,1 -
PK Ryan Succop 1 FG 2 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Chiefs started the season 9-0 but then ended only 2-5 including that loss to the visiting Colts. The Chiefs offense came up huge when facing weak defenses but was less effective on the road and at the end of the year.

It is particularly troubling that the Chiefs could only manage one touchdown against the Colts but that could have something to do with scoring 101 points in their two previous games which were on the road versus the Skins and Raiders.

Alex Smith was on a hot streak for five games when he scored a total of 14 times and never fewer than two touchdowns in those games but his last game played was versus the Colts when he failed to score and ended with 153 pass yards and one interception along with two lost fumbles. Smith tended to show up nicely only in divisional matchups. Or versus the Redskins.

The Colts allowed a passing score to all but one visiting team but the yardage varied greatly.

Jamaal Charles ends the year as the best fantasy back and two weeks ago he ran for 106 yards and a score on just 13 carries versus the Colts. He added five catches for 38 yards. The Colts are only about average against the position and gave up five scores at home. But this is the #1 back in the NFL who just rested up for this game in particular.

Dwayne Bowe was nursing a concussion and could not play last week anyway. He is expected back this week but only managed five catches for 46 yards versus the Colts. Donnie Avery scored only once all year and versus the Colts was held to three catches for 32 yards. The Colts at home were solid against the pass overall though wideouts had more success against them than any other position. Unfortunately, the relative weakness of the Colts is against the absolute weakness of the Chiefs.

Tight ends never matter much for the Chiefs though Anthony Fasano scored in three straight games - (@DEN, SD, DEN) but otherwise was just a blocker and only caught one pass on the Bengals last time. He's unlikely to matter against a defense that gave up just one touchdown catch to a tight end this year.

The only positive this week potentially is that CB Vontae Davis may be out with a groin injury but he would naturally match on Avery anyway.

This is a little harder to call since the Chiefs are inconsistent. But undeniable is losing five of their last seven games while their defense succumbed to injury problems. This was the last matchup that the starters played in and it did not go well even played at home.

Gaining Fantasy Points KC 14 1 32 31 17 1
Preventing Fantasy Points IND 17 11 18 6 7 7


1 OAK 21-17 10 STL 8-38
2 MIA 20-24 11 @TEN 30-27
3 @SF 27-7 12 @ARI 11-40
4 @JAC 37-3 13 TEN 22-14
5 SEA 34-28 14 @CIN 28-42
6 @SD 9-19 15 HOU 25-3
7 DEN 39-33 16 @KC 23-7
8 BYE WEEK 17 JAC 30-10
9 @HOU 27-24 ----- ----- -----
News | Statistics | Roster
Rush Catch Pass
QB Andrew Luck - - 250,2
RB Donald Brown 75,1 2-10 -
RB Trent Richardson 50 3-20,1 -
TE Coby Fleener - 2-25 -
WR Da'Rick Rogers - 2-30  
WR Griff Whalen - 5-60,1 -
WR T.Y. Hilton - 7-80 -
PK Adam Vinatieri 1 FG 3 XP -

Pregame Notes: The Colts were perhaps never so impressive as when they went to Kansas City and took down the Chiefs. But this is also the same team that beat the Seahawks and Broncos in home games. The loss of Reggie Wayne seemed to take a long time to replace but it may be that the Colts just needed to face weak defenses. This is one of the better defenses in the league when they are playing to potential.

Andrew Luck was wildly inconsistent in production with three games producing no scores and yet three times generating three or four touchdowns. In Kansas City he threw for 241 yards and one touchdown and has enjoyed a much improved rushing effort in recent weeks.

The Chiefs were a top defense that never allowed more than one passing score. But that changed as the defense lost players and now their last two road games gave up two scores to Matthew McGloin and three for Philip Rivers along with healthy yardage.

Donald Brown rejuvenated his career though how or why stretches the imagination. His yardage remains moderate at best but Brown scored eight times on the season and against the Chiefs he ran for 79 yards and a score on just 10 carries and added two catches for 31 yards and a second touchdown. Trent Richardson is a major disappointment but at least he scored in two of the last three games (both at home) and gets as much work as Brown does. Richardson ran for 43 yards on 16 carries in Kansas City and added three catches for 15 yards.

The Chiefs are softer versus the run on the road and more so in recent weeks. The last two home games witnessed Rashad Jennings gaining 91 yards and two scores on 23 carries there and Ryan Mathews posted 144 yards on 24 runs just last week.

The Colts are now using Da'Rick Rogers who started well but since has been far less productive, Rogers gained 42 yards on four catches in Kansas City. Griff Whalen caught seven passes for 80 yards there and while he did not score, he had touchdowns in both of the most recent home games. T.Y. Hilton only caught five passes for 52 yards and hasn't scored since back in week nine. But he turned in a season best 11 catches for 155 yards just last week against the visiting Jaguars.

The Chiefs have allowed numerous big games to wide receivers but in each case it was one of the best wideouts in the league.

The Chiefs rank great against tight ends but that comes from shutting them all down when at home. On the road, the Chiefs allowed five scores to the position in just the last four road games.

The Chiefs are not as good as they once were but the Colts may not be as good as they currently seem. But playing this in Indy after already dominating them in Kansas City is hard to argue away.

Gaining Fantasy Points IND 10 13 17 25 8 25
Preventing Fantasy Points KC 19 16 20 2 4 2

Wildcard Kansas City at Indianapolis 4:35 PM EST San Diego at Cincinnati 1:05 PM EST
*UPDATED  New Orleans at Philadelphia 8:10 PM EST San Francisco at Green Bay 4:40 PM EST

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