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Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Receivers with Reception Points
David Dorey
April 24, 2014
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2013 Passing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
PHI 65.7 IND 43.1
@MIN 63.5 NO 42.7
@OAK 56.9 KC 42.6
@ATL 56.8 TEN 42.3
DET 53.7 SF 42.2
@DAL 52.8 @DEN 42.1
GB 52.8 CIN 41.6
MIN 52.6 @NE 41.4
JAC 52.4 OAK 41.2
ARI 52.4 @BAL 41.1
NYJ 51.4 CLE 41.1
DEN 50.9 MIA 40.2
SD 50.6 @NYG 40.1
@CLE 50.2 @CIN 40.1
TB 49.1 @NO 39.4
DAL 48.7 @CAR 38.6
@ARI 48.5 SEA 36.5
@TB 48.3 @SEA 33.1
@KC 48.1 HOU 30.5
@WAS 48.0 @TEN 30.4

More Strength of Schedule:
Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

This analysis considers both tight ends and wide receivers awarded 0.1 points per received yard and six point touchdowns along with one point per reception.


Best Schedules:

Sam Bradford - The fifth-year player faces a nice slate of games with half his games going against a Top 20 easiest venue and history says he needs every advantage he can get. He missed 11 games with a blown knee in 2013 and has never delivered on the promise of being the 2010 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Since the only free agent pickup for receiver was Kenny Britt, it is hard to see Bradford making much progress despite the nice schedule.

Vikings - The soft schedule will help though the Vikings are yet another team looking at the NFL draft with an eye toward getting a new quarterback. Greg Jennings and Cordarrelle Patterson both enter their second season in Minneapolis which should benefit the offense as well. One caveat here - the Vikings won't be in a dome this year while their new stadium is being built and playing outside could be an issue in weeks 12, 13, 14 and17.

Russell Wilson - Wilson is never going to be in a pass-heavy scheme in Seattle and that will influence just how productive he can possibly be. But he receives a nice schedule and more importantly, his first six games contains four good matchups and no bad ones. A decent fantasy play during the opening of the season when passing points are generally higher and gives you time to switch off to some other developing situation.

Worst Schedules:

Jaguars - A team already searching for the starting quarterback gets the worst schedule for receivers - over half of their games go against Top 20 toughest venues from last year. That's league-worst and not exactly encouraging about Cecil Shorts returning from injured reserve or Justin Blackmon who may or may not have his suspension lifted.

Browns - Yet another team that is deciding on a new quarterback will face a very bad schedule. 2013 was a break out season for Josh Gordon and the Browns did not add anyone likely to matter much - Nate Burleson is probably the best bet to compete with Greg Little for the #2 role that has done almost nothing anyway. Is this enough to ding Gordon this year? Well. Yes. Bad schedule and an unknown starting quarterback is the perfect recipe for at least a marginal decline.

Ravens - Tough schedule but that's been true every season for a long time. At least the Ravens added Steve Smith who won't be as good as he was in his prime in Carolina, but he's bound to be an upgrade from Marlon Brown and Jacoby Jones.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)
  SOS Good Bad
STL 5 8 3
SEA 4 7 3
MIN 3 4 1
GB 3 5 2
PHI 3 5 2
NO 3 6 3
WAS 3 6 3
NE 2 5 3
TB 2 5 3
CHI 2 6 4
DET 2 6 4
MIA 1 4 3
BUF 1 5 4
TEN 1 5 4
BAL 0 4 4
KC 0 4 4
NYJ 0 4 4
SD 0 5 5
ARI 0 6 6
CIN -1 4 5
HOU -1 4 5
IND -1 4 5
NYG -1 4 5
OAK -1 5 6
SF -1 5 6
CAR -2 4 6
ATL -2 5 7
DEN -3 4 7
DAL -5 2 7
CLE -6 2 8
JAC -6 2 8
PIT -6 3 9
Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)
  SOS Good Bad
NO 5 5 0
SEA 4 4 0
SD 3 4 1
SF 2 3 1
STL 2 3 1
PHI 1 1 0
BAL 1 2 1
CHI 1 2 1
DET 1 2 1
GB 1 2 1
MIA 1 2 1
NYG 1 2 1
NYJ 1 2 1
WAS 1 2 1
TEN 1 3 2
BUF 0 1 1
MIN 0 1 1
TB 0 1 1
CAR 0 2 2
HOU 0 2 2
NE 0 2 2
IND -1 1 2
JAC -1 1 2
ATL -1 2 3
PIT -1 2 3
CLE -2 0 2
KC -2 0 2
ARI -2 1 3
DEN -2 1 3
OAK -2 1 3
CIN -3 0 3
DAL -5 0 5
Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad
CIN 2 2 0
DET 2 2 0
STL 2 2 0
BAL 1 1 0
GB 1 1 0
MIN 1 1 0
SD 1 1 0
TEN 1 1 0
BUF 1 2 1
CHI 1 2 1
IND 1 2 1
PHI 1 2 1
SF 1 2 1
HOU 0 0 0
NO 0 0 0
KC 0 1 1
MIA 0 1 1
NYJ 0 1 1
OAK 0 1 1
SEA 0 1 1
TB 0 1 1
WAS 0 1 1
ATL -1 0 1
DAL -1 0 1
DEN -1 0 1
NE -1 0 1
NYG -1 0 1
CAR -1 1 2
PIT -1 1 2
ARI -2 0 2
CLE -3 0 3
JAC -3 0 3

Week - By - Week

TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI SD @NYG SF BYE @DEN WAS @OAK PHI @DAL STL DET @SEA @ATL KC @STL SEA
ATL NO @CIN TB @MIN @NYG CHI @BAL DET BYE @TB @CAR CLE ARI @GB PIT @NO
BAL CIN PIT @CLE CAR @IND @TB ATL @CIN @PIT TEN BYE @NO SD @MIA JAC @HOU
BUF @CHI MIA SD @HOU @DET NE MIN @NYJ BYE KC @MIA NYJ CLE @DEN GB @OAK
CAR @TB DET PIT @BAL CHI @CIN @GB SEA NO @PHI ATL BYE @MIN @NO TB CLE
CHI BUF @SF @NYJ GB @CAR @ATL MIA @NE BYE @GB MIN TB @DET DAL NO DET
CIN @BAL ATL TEN BYE @NE CAR @IND BAL JAC CLE @NO @HOU @TB PIT @CLE DEN
CLE @PIT NO BAL BYE @TEN PIT @JAC OAK TB @CIN HOU @ATL @BUF IND CIN @CAR
DAL SF @TEN @STL NO HOU @SEA NYG WAS ARI @JAC BYE @NYG PHI @CHI @PHI IND
DEN IND KC @SEA BYE ARI @NYJ SF SD @NE @OAK @STL MIA @KC BUF @SD @CIN
DET NYG @CAR GB @NYJ BUF @MIN NO @ATL BYE MIA @ARI @NE CHI TB MIN @CHI
GB @SEA NYJ @DET @CHI MIN @MIA CAR @NO BYE CHI PHI @MIN NE ATL @BUF @TB
HOU WAS @OAK @NYG BUF @DAL IND @PIT @TEN PHI BYE @CLE CIN TEN @JAC @IND BAL
IND @DEN PHI @JAC TEN BAL @HOU CIN @PIT @NYG BYE NE  JAC WAS @CLE HOU @DAL
JAC @PHI @WAS IND @SD PIT @TEN CLE MIA @CIN DAL BYE @IND NYG HOU @BAL TEN
KC TEN @DEN @MIA NE @SF BYE @SD STL NYJ @BUF SEA @OAK DEN @ARI OAK @PIT
MIA NE @BUF KC @OAK BYE GB @CHI @JAC SD @DET BUF @DEN @NYJ BAL @NE MIN
MIN @STL NE @NO ATL @GB DET @BUF @TB WAS BYE @CHI GB CAR NYJ @DET @MIA
NE @MIA @MIN OAK @KC CIN @BUF NYJ CHI DEN BYE @IND DET @GB @SD MIA @NYJ
NO @ATL @CLE MIN @DAL TB BYE @DET GB @CAR SF CIN BAL @PIT CAR @CHI ATL
NYG @DET ARI HOU @WAS ATL @PHI @DAL BYE IND @SEA SF DAL @JAC @TEN WAS @STL
NYJ OAK @GB CHI DET @SD DEN @NE BUF @KC PIT BYE @BUF MIA @MIN @TEN NE
OAK @NYJ HOU @NE MIA BYE SD ARI @CLE @SEA DEN @SD KC @STL SF @KC BUF
PHI JAC @IND WAS @SF STL NYG BYE @ARI @HOU CAR @GB TEN @DAL SEA DAL @WAS
PIT CLE @BAL @CAR TB @JAC @CLE HOU IND BAL @NYJ @TEN BYE NO @CIN @ATL KC
SD @ARI SEA @BUF JAC NYJ @OAK KC @DEN @MIA BYE OAK STL @BAL NE DEN @SF
SEA GB @SD DEN BYE @WAS DAL @STL @CAR OAK NYG @KC ARI @SF @PHI SF @ARI
SF @DAL CHI @ARI PHI KC @STL @DEN BYE STL @NO @NYG WAS SEA @OAK @SEA SD
STL MIN @TB DAL BYE @PHI SF SEA @KC @SF @ARI DEN @SD OAK @WAS ARI NYG
TB CAR STL @ATL @PIT @NO BAL BYE MIN @CLE ATL @WAS @CHI CIN @DET @CAR GB
TEN @KC DAL @CIN @IND CLE JAC @WAS HOU BYE @BAL PIT @PHI @HOU NYG NYJ @JAC
WAS @HOU JAC @PHI NYG SEA @ARI TEN @DAL @MIN BYE TB @SF @IND STL @NYG PHI

More Strength of Schedule:
Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR


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