FANTASY FOOTBALL ARTICLES

Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs
David Dorey
April 24, 2014
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2013 Rushing Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game
20 Best Matchups 20 Worst Matchups
CHI 27.6 PHI 15.8
DAL 25.6 @BUF 15.3
ATL 23.8 @TB 15.2
TEN 23.4 @CLE 15.0
@JAC 23.3 @ATL 15.0
@NE 23.1 @BAL 14.9
@TEN 23.0 @IND 14.9
GB 23.0 BAL 14.8
@WAS 22.6 @NO 14.5
STL 22.6 @NYJ 14.1
@DAL 22.2 CAR 14.1
WAS 22.0 SEA 13.9
PIT 21.9 SF 13.2
CLE 21.5 ARI 12.7
HOU 21.3 @CAR 12.6
KC 21.1 NYJ 11.7
@DEN 21.1 @SEA 11.6
@CHI 21.0 @CIN 10.7
OAK 20.9 @ARI 9.8
MIA 20.2 @DET 8.9

More Strength of Schedule:
Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns.


Best Schedules:

Chris Johnson - He's starting over his career that has struggled since breaking 2000 yards back in 2009 and he's in a new offense that has not been very good and that does use a committee approach to the backfield. Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell will be involved to some unknown measure but at least Johnson steps into the softest schedule in the NFL. Caveat here - the Jets had the same situation last year and produced nearly nothing.

Toby Gerhart - The Jaguars may use the draft to bulk up the backfield that so far is little more than Toby Gerhart rubbing his eyes to make sure it is all real. Half the games go against Top 20 easiest venues fro 2013 and that could make Gerhart a reasonable spec pick for any fantasy team barring the addition of a hot rookie runner.

Rashad Jennings - Like the Jaguars, the Giants have half their games against softer matchups but they too use a committee and start the season out with Rashad Jennings as the likely primary and David Wilson still in the picture. Throw in a rookie runner and this could be a mess again this year.

Worst Schedules:

Eddie Lacy - No way to sugar-coat this bad schedule that begins with three tough venues and never gets that much better. Fortunately Lacy is a heavy-use back and scores touchdowns as well as acts as a receiver. This schedule will affect his production but he's still a good bet for at least average stats if not better.

Saints - The Saints parted ways with Darren Sproles but that has no impact on the rushing effort and his production will just be spread out among Pierre Thomas and Travaris Cadet if not even Mark Ingram who so far has been rarely used as a receiver. The Saints are never going to rely on one back so a bad schedule only means an even more muddled backfield in fantasy terms.

Ray Rice - This is unwelcomed given that Ray Rice fell off a cliff last year and was arrested for beating his girlfriend unconscious (who he has since married of course). Bernard Pierce already ran 152 times to Rice's 214 in 2013 so there's no warm and fuzzy here even before a bad schedule was introduced.

Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season)
  SOS Good Bad
NYJ 5 6 1
JAC 5 8 3
NYG 4 8 4
BUF 3 6 3
IND 3 6 3
MIA 2 6 4
PHI 2 6 4
TEN 2 6 4
DAL 1 5 4
DET 1 5 4
HOU 1 5 4
SF 1 6 5
CHI 0 4 4
KC 0 4 4
SEA 0 4 4
ARI 0 5 5
CLE 0 5 5
NE -1 3 4
WAS -1 3 4
CAR -1 4 5
OAK -1 4 5
SD -1 4 5
DEN -2 3 5
STL -2 3 5
MIN -2 4 6
CIN -2 5 7
PIT -2 5 7
TB -2 5 7
ATL -3 3 6
BAL -3 3 6
NO -3 4 7
GB -5 3 8
Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule)
  SOS Good Bad
JAC 3 3 0
SEA 3 3 0
HOU 2 2 0
KC 2 2 0
NYJ 2 2 0
OAK 2 3 1
ARI 1 2 1
BUF 1 2 1
CLE 1 2 1
MIA 1 2 1
PHI 1 2 1
CIN 1 3 2
IND 1 3 2
NYG 1 3 2
SF 1 3 2
ATL 0 1 1
MIN 0 1 1
NE 0 1 1
DAL 0 2 2
TEN 0 2 2
DET -1 1 2
NO -1 1 2
STL -1 1 2
CAR -1 2 3
PIT -1 2 3
WAS -2 0 2
CHI -2 1 3
DEN -2 1 3
GB -2 1 3
BAL -3 1 4
TB -3 1 4
SD -4 0 4
Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad
BUF 2 2 0
NYG 2 2 0
CHI 1 1 0
DAL 1 1 0
DET 1 1 0
NYJ 1 1 0
IND 1 2 1
JAC 1 2 1
NO 1 2 1
PHI 1 2 1
BAL 0 0 0
SD 0 0 0
ARI 0 1 1
ATL 0 1 1
CAR 0 1 1
CIN 0 1 1
KC 0 1 1
MIA 0 1 1
NE 0 1 1
STL 0 1 1
TEN 0 1 1
WAS 0 1 1
CLE -1 0 1
DEN -1 0 1
OAK -1 0 1
SF -1 0 1
GB -1 1 2
HOU -1 1 2
PIT -1 1 2
TB -1 1 2
MIN -2 0 2
SEA -2 0 2

Week - By - Week

TM 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI SD @NYG SF BYE @DEN WAS @OAK PHI @DAL STL DET @SEA @ATL KC @STL SEA
ATL NO @CIN TB @MIN @NYG CHI @BAL DET BYE @TB @CAR CLE ARI @GB PIT @NO
BAL CIN PIT @CLE CAR @IND @TB ATL @CIN @PIT TEN BYE @NO SD @MIA JAC @HOU
BUF @CHI MIA SD @HOU @DET NE MIN @NYJ BYE KC @MIA NYJ CLE @DEN GB @OAK
CAR @TB DET PIT @BAL CHI @CIN @GB SEA NO @PHI ATL BYE @MIN @NO TB CLE
CHI BUF @SF @NYJ GB @CAR @ATL MIA @NE BYE @GB MIN TB @DET DAL NO DET
CIN @BAL ATL TEN BYE @NE CAR @IND BAL JAC CLE @NO @HOU @TB PIT @CLE DEN
CLE @PIT NO BAL BYE @TEN PIT @JAC OAK TB @CIN HOU @ATL @BUF IND CIN @CAR
DAL SF @TEN @STL NO HOU @SEA NYG WAS ARI @JAC BYE @NYG PHI @CHI @PHI IND
DEN IND KC @SEA BYE ARI @NYJ SF SD @NE @OAK @STL MIA @KC BUF @SD @CIN
DET NYG @CAR GB @NYJ BUF @MIN NO @ATL BYE MIA @ARI @NE CHI TB MIN @CHI
GB @SEA NYJ @DET @CHI MIN @MIA CAR @NO BYE CHI PHI @MIN NE ATL @BUF @TB
HOU WAS @OAK @NYG BUF @DAL IND @PIT @TEN PHI BYE @CLE CIN TEN @JAC @IND BAL
IND @DEN PHI @JAC TEN BAL @HOU CIN @PIT @NYG BYE NE  JAC WAS @CLE HOU @DAL
JAC @PHI @WAS IND @SD PIT @TEN CLE MIA @CIN DAL BYE @IND NYG HOU @BAL TEN
KC TEN @DEN @MIA NE @SF BYE @SD STL NYJ @BUF SEA @OAK DEN @ARI OAK @PIT
MIA NE @BUF KC @OAK BYE GB @CHI @JAC SD @DET BUF @DEN @NYJ BAL @NE MIN
MIN @STL NE @NO ATL @GB DET @BUF @TB WAS BYE @CHI GB CAR NYJ @DET @MIA
NE @MIA @MIN OAK @KC CIN @BUF NYJ CHI DEN BYE @IND DET @GB @SD MIA @NYJ
NO @ATL @CLE MIN @DAL TB BYE @DET GB @CAR SF CIN BAL @PIT CAR @CHI ATL
NYG @DET ARI HOU @WAS ATL @PHI @DAL BYE IND @SEA SF DAL @JAC @TEN WAS @STL
NYJ OAK @GB CHI DET @SD DEN @NE BUF @KC PIT BYE @BUF MIA @MIN @TEN NE
OAK @NYJ HOU @NE MIA BYE SD ARI @CLE @SEA DEN @SD KC @STL SF @KC BUF
PHI JAC @IND WAS @SF STL NYG BYE @ARI @HOU CAR @GB TEN @DAL SEA DAL @WAS
PIT CLE @BAL @CAR TB @JAC @CLE HOU IND BAL @NYJ @TEN BYE NO @CIN @ATL KC
SD @ARI SEA @BUF JAC NYJ @OAK KC @DEN @MIA BYE OAK STL @BAL NE DEN @SF
SEA GB @SD DEN BYE @WAS DAL @STL @CAR OAK NYG @KC ARI @SF @PHI SF @ARI
SF @DAL CHI @ARI PHI KC @STL @DEN BYE STL @NO @NYG WAS SEA @OAK @SEA SD
STL MIN @TB DAL BYE @PHI SF SEA @KC @SF @ARI DEN @SD OAK @WAS ARI NYG
TB CAR STL @ATL @PIT @NO BAL BYE MIN @CLE ATL @WAS @CHI CIN @DET @CAR GB
TEN @KC DAL @CIN @IND CLE JAC @WAS HOU BYE @BAL PIT @PHI @HOU NYG NYJ @JAC
WAS @HOU JAC @PHI NYG SEA @ARI TEN @DAL @MIN BYE TB @SF @IND STL @NYG PHI

More Strength of Schedule:
Quarterbacks  |  Running Backs  |  RB w/ PPR  |  Receivers  |  RCV w/ PPR


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