Fantasy Strength of Schedule: Running Backs with PPR

David Dorey, @DMDorey
2015 Rushing Fantasy Points
Allowed Per Game
20 Best
Matchups
20 Worst
Matchups
SF 35.8 HOU 20.7
JAC 34.9 @DEN 20.7
WAS 30.0 @JAC 20.6
@ATL 29.3 @NE 20.4
MIA 28.9 PIT 20.3
@NO 28.7 @HOU 19.7
NO 28.4 MIN 19.6
@MIA 28.4 @NYJ 19.6
@SD 28.0 @DET 19.4
CHI 27.8 KC 19.0
@NYG 27.4 @BAL 19.0
IND 26.9 TEN 18.9
@PHI 26.8 @KC 18.8
DAL 26.7 @IND 18.7
NYG 26.5 @TEN 18.6
PHI 26.4 @WAS 17.0
@DAL 25.9 @PIT 16.2
@ARI 25.9 NYJ 15.6
@LA 25.9 ARI 15.3
SD 25.8 SEA 14.2

The Strength of Schedule takes the results from all defensive performances last season and then applies the stats allowed against quarterbacks, running backs and receivers to determine who will have the easier schedule. This is determined by taking the best and worst venues for offenses to face and comparing those statistics allowed against the current NFL schedule for each team. Unlike strength of schedules used during the regular season which only considers the 32 defenses, this look back at last year considers the 64 venues that can happen - facing each defense either home or away.

To remove the effects of the really bad or good odd game, defensive performances last year have their best and worst game removed before determining their average fantasy points allowed for each position.

Three different views are given below - Weeks 1 to 6 show what players will face as they start the season. Weeks 1 through 16 are shown for a full season view and weeks 14 to 16 show the most common weeks for fantasy playoffs. Below that is the NFL schedule marked for each team to show when they have good (green) or bad (red) match-ups. Bye weeks are considered a bad matchup since the player is unavailable for your fantasy team that week. This is important especially considering the Dorey Rule - "draft as if the season only lasted the first six weeks".

Bye weeks are considered bad to help better portray what to expect in the first six weeks for those who will miss a game from a bye.

This analysis considers running backs awarded 0.1 points per rushed or received yard and six point touchdowns and one point per reception.

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Weeks 1 to 16 (Full Season) Weeks 1 to 6 (Dorey Rule) Weeks 14 to 16 (FF Playoffs)
  SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad   SOS Good Bad
NYG 7 8 1 NYG 3 3 0 DET 3 3 0
TB 5 7 2 DEN 2 2 0 TB 3 3 0
SF 4 6 2 JAC 2 2 0 ARI 2 2 0
ARI 3 5 2 NO 2 2 0 ATL 2 2 0
DAL 3 5 2 SEA 2 3 1 NYG 2 2 0
DET 3 7 4 TB 2 2 0 CLE 1 1 0
SEA 3 6 3 BAL 1 2 1 DAL 1 1 0
ATL 2 5 3 CAR 1 3 2 LA 1 1 0
WAS 2 6 4 CHI 1 3 2 NO 1 1 0
CAR 1 6 5 DAL 1 2 1 OAK 1 2 1
CHI 1 6 5 GB 1 2 1 PHI 1 2 1
LA 1 5 4 NE 1 2 1 SF 1 2 1
NO 1 3 2 WAS 1 3 2 WAS 1 1 0
BAL 0 5 5 ATL 0 1 1 BUF 0 1 1
BUF 0 5 5 CLE 0 2 2 CAR 0 1 1
CLE 0 5 5 SD 0 2 2 CHI 0 1 1
GB 0 6 6 SF 0 1 1 HOU 0 1 1
NYJ 0 4 4 ARI -1 0 1 MIN 0 1 1
CIN -1 5 6 CIN -1 2 3 NYJ 0 1 1
DEN -1 4 5 DET -1 1 2 PIT 0 0 0
PHI -1 4 5 HOU -1 2 3 SD 0 0 0
PIT -1 4 5 IND -1 2 3 BAL -1 1 2
SD -1 4 5 LA -1 1 2 IND -1 0 1
HOU -2 4 6 MIN -1 1 2 KC -1 0 1
KC -2 4 6 OAK -1 2 3 SEA -1 0 1
MIN -2 4 6 PIT -1 2 3 CIN -2 0 2
OAK -2 4 6 BUF -2 2 4 DEN -2 0 2
TEN -2 4 6 KC -2 1 3 GB -2 0 2
MIA -4 3 7 NYJ -2 1 3 MIA -2 0 2
NE -4 2 6 TEN -2 1 3 NE -2 0 2
JAC -5 2 7 MIA -3 0 3 TEN -2 0 2
IND -7 2 9 PHI -3 0 3 JAC -3 0 3

Notable Schedules:

Rashad Jennings (Giants) – The Giants did little to upgrade their backfield and Jennings will again take the lead.  The more successful he is, the more workload he will receive.  He faces only one bad venue – at the Steelers in Week 13.  Starting out the first three weeks at the Cowboys and then against the Saints and Redskins should set the tone and there’s every reason to expect a nice increase from the 1025 total yards and six touchdowns from 2015.

Doug Martin (Buccaneers) – While Jameis Winston has the worst passing schedule, Martin ends up with one of the easiest rushing slate of games.  If Winston does struggle to pass, relying on a tailback that can both run and catch makes sense. As an added treat, Martin ends the final four games of the fantasy season all facing bottom 20 venues – at the Chargers, at the Cowboys and both meetings with the Saints. The new coaching staff will also tend to rely on their productive running back.

Carlos Hyde (49ers) – There was already reasons to like Hyde this year. He’s over the foot injury that robbed him of nine games last season and new head coach Chip Kelly already praised him as an every-down back that will see a sharp uptick in receptions as well as carries. With only two games in a bottom 20 venue, Hyde has his stars aligned for a dramatic jump in production this year.

Frank Gore (Colts) – It is not enough that Gore comes off  the worst full season of his career and only averaged 3.7 yards per carry. But the 33-year-old will go against the worst schedule for running backs while trying to defy the effects of time. His 2702 career carries are 321 more than any other active player. Gore faces no easy venues after Week 5 and yet is pitted against seven of the top 20 toughest from last year. If this is his swan song, it’s not likely going to end with a bang.

Week - By - Week

Team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
ARI NE TB @BUF LA @SF NYJ SEA @CAR BYE SF @MIN @ATL WAS @MIA NO @SEA
ATL TB @OAK @NO CAR @DEN @SEA SD GB @TB @PHI BYE ARI KC @LA SF @CAR
BAL BUF @CLE @JAC OAK WAS @NYG @NYJ BYE PIT CLE @DAL CIN MIA @NE PHI @PIT
BUF @BAL NYJ ARI @NE @LA SF @MIA NE @SEA BYE @CIN JAC @OAK PIT CLE MIA
CAR @DEN SF MIN @ATL TB @NO BYE ARI @LA KC NO @OAK @SEA SD @WAS ATL
CHI @HOU PHI @DAL DET @IND JAC @GB MIN BYE @TB @NYG TEN SF @DET GB WAS
CIN @NYJ @PIT DEN MIA @DAL @NE CLE WAS BYE @NYG BUF @BAL PHI @CLE PIT @HOU
CLE @PHI BAL @MIA @WAS NE @TEN @CIN NYJ DAL @BAL PIT NYG BYE CIN @BUF SD
DAL NYG @WAS CHI @SF CIN @GB BYE PHI @CLE @PIT BAL WAS @MIN @NYG TB DET
DEN CAR IND @CIN @TB ATL @SD HOU SD @OAK @NO BYE KC @JAC @TEN NE @KC
DET @IND TEN @GB @CHI PHI LA WAS @HOU @MIN BYE JAC MIN @NO CHI @NYG @DAL
GB @JAC @MIN DET BYE NYG DAL CHI @ATL IND @TEN @WAS @PHI HOU SEA @CHI MIN
HOU CHI KC @NE TEN @MIN IND @DEN DET BYE @JAC @OAK SD @GB @IND JAC CIN
IND DET @DEN SD @JAC CHI @HOU @TEN KC @GB BYE TEN PIT @NYJ HOU @MIN @OAK
JAC GB @SD BAL IND BYE @CHI OAK @TEN @KC HOU @DET @BUF DEN MIN @HOU TEN
KC SD @HOU NYJ @PIT BYE @OAK NO @IND JAC @CAR TB @DEN @ATL OAK TEN DEN
LA @SF SEA @TB @ARI BUF @DET NYG BYE CAR @NYJ MIA @NO @NE ATL @SEA SF
MIA @SEA @NE CLE @CIN TEN PIT BUF BYE NYJ @SD @LA SF @BAL ARI @NYJ @BUF
MIN @TEN GB @CAR NYG HOU BYE @PHI @CHI DET @WAS ARI @DET DAL @JAC IND @GB
NE @ARI MIA HOU BUF @CLE CIN @PIT @BUF BYE SEA @SF @NYJ LA BAL @DEN NYJ
NO OAK @NYG ATL @SD BYE CAR @KC SEA @SF DEN @CAR LA DET @TB @ARI TB
NYG @DAL NO WAS @MIN @GB BAL @LA BYE PHI CIN CHI @CLE @PIT DAL DET @PHI
NYJ CIN @BUF @KC SEA @PIT @ARI BAL @CLE @MIA LA BYE NE IND @SF MIA @NE
OAK @NO ATL @TEN @BAL SD KC @JAC @TB DEN BYE HOU CAR BUF @KC @SD IND
PHI CLE @CHI PIT BYE @DET @WAS MIN @DAL @NYG ATL @SEA GB @CIN WAS @BAL NYG
PIT @WAS CIN @PHI KC NYJ @MIA NE BYE @BAL DAL @CLE @IND NYG @BUF @CIN BAL
SD @KC JAC @IND NO @OAK DEN @ATL @DEN TEN MIA BYE @HOU TB @CAR OAK @CLE
SEA MIA @LA SF @NYJ BYE ATL @ARI @NO BUF @NE PHI @TB CAR @GB LA ARI
SF LA @CAR @SEA DAL ARI @BUF TB BYE NO @ARI NE @MIA @CHI NYJ @ATL @LA
TB @ATL @ARI LA DEN @CAR BYE @SF OAK ATL CHI @KC SEA @SD NO @DAL @NO
TEN MIN @DET OAK @HOU @MIA CLE IND JAC @SD GB @IND @CHI BYE DEN @KC @JAC
WAS PIT DAL @NYG CLE @BAL PHI @DET @CIN BYE MIN GB @DAL @ARI @PHI CAR @CHI

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